Engineers Ireland Annual Conference

4th May 2017

Tullamore

Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios

Define a project and

identify possible solutions

How do we plan the transmission system?

How will the

usage of the grid

evolve over

time?

Is the electricity system of

today able to handle the

usage of tomorrow?

If any risks or issues are

identified then we need to

understand the reasons

The future remains uncertain…

Economic Uncertainty

Societal Uncertainty

Technology Uncertainty

Political Uncertainty

…and we need to capture that uncertainty

Market

Generation

Demand

Policy

• Scenario Planning is a well proven method for accepting uncertainty

Economic

Societal

Technology

Political

How we plan the system

Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios

• National and International Policies

on Energy and Climate Change

• National and International

Economic Developments

• Technology Evolution and

Adoption

• Other National and International

Influences Environmental and Planning Policies

Job Creation and Industrial Development Policies

EU and International Policies, Regulations and

Influences

Transport Policies

What factors influence future uncertainties?

2030 Energy and Emissions Targets – EU Policy

• The EU 2030 target is a 40% GHG

reduction on 1990 levels.

• The EU aims to reduce GHG emissions in

the ETS sector by 43% and in the non-

ETS sector by 30% compared to 2005

levels

• Each member state has been given

provisional country specific targets for

the Non-ETS sector in order to meet the

overall EU goal of 30% reduction.

• There are currently no member state

specific targets for the ETS sector

2030 Emissions Targets – Our assumptions

• In the absence of a target our scenarios assumes the EU ETS target of 43% reduction against 2005 levels applies to Ireland

• Today’s carbon dioxide output from the power generation sector is about 11 Mt

• Applying the 43% reduction target gives us “limits” for CO2 production from the electricity sector of 8.7 Mt

• In our publication where we talk about achieving targets we used this value as the benchmark

– In three scenarios we achieve this or better

– In one we do not

• Getting input from experts is fundamental to the development of scenarios

Stakeholder Engagement

Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios

• Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios

2017 Consultation document

published in February

• Sets out four scenarios from

2020 – 2040

• This publication covers

scenarios for Ireland only

• Scenarios will be revised every

two years

Steady Evolution

• Steady economic growth

• Steady growth in renewable electricity

generation

• Household adopt new technologies

• Consumers more energy aware

• Increase in energy efficiency in homes

& businesses

• Consumers gradually use electric

vehicles & heat pumps

• Electricity powers a larger proportion

of transportation and heating

Low Carbon Living

• High economic growth

• Creation and rollout of new

technologies for low carbon electricity

generation

• Strong public demand to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions

• High carbon prices and incentives for

renewables

• High level of renewable generation on

the grid

• Clean energy & improvements to

broadband and transport drive growth

in large data centres

Slow Change

• Slow economic growth

• Investment in low risk technologies

only

• Slow adoption of technology by

households

• Little change in electricity generation

• Avoidance of risk

• Growth in demand coming from data

centres only

• Level of investment slows down

significantly after 2025

Consumer Action

• Strong economy

• High levels of consumer spending

• Public want to reduce greenhouse gas

emissions

• Consumers limit energy use

• Consumers generate their own energy

• Community led energy projects

• Rapid adoption of electric vehicles &

heat pumps

Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios – 2030 Summary

VariablesSteady

Evolution

Low Carbon

LivingSlow Change

Consumer

Action

Total Demand (TWh) 36.3 43.9 35.2 42.5

Total Data Centre Capacity (MVA) 1,100 1,950 850 1,675

Total Electric Vehicles 168,000 246,000 67,000 280,000

Total % of Vehicles which are

Electric8% 11% 3% 13%

Wind (Onshore) 5,140 6,000 4,640 5,380

Wind (Offshore) 280 2,000 25 600

Coal 0 0 860 0

Gas 4,660 4,210 3,760 4,660

Peat 0 0 0 0

Fossil Fuel Generation Total 4,930 4,360 4,980 4,810

Tomorrow’s

Energy

Scenarios

2017

Six week

consultation with

industry & public

NOW CLOSED

Refine scenarios

based on feedback

Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios Consultation

Feb- April

2017

May-June

2017

Summer

2017

Consultation Responses - Initial View

• We need to revise our estimates for

offshore wind in a number of

scenarios where it is likely to have

been underestimated

• Electric Vehicle uptake should have a

wider range than the current

estimates of 3-11% of vehicle fleet

• Battery storage needs to be brought

out more in the scenarios

• Are our Moneypoint assumptions

wide-ranging enough?

Next Steps

• Finalise and Publish the 2017

Scenarios

• Carry out technical assessment of

today’s grid under each scenario

• Identify any needs and associated

drivers

• Publish “Tomorrow's Energy

Scenarios – System Needs

Assessment” end 2017

Thank You