Tom Walsh Economist, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development
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Transcript of Tom Walsh Economist, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development
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Tom Walsh
Economist, Office of Economic Advisors
Department of Workforce Development
June 12, 2013
Economic Overview and Outlook
Portage County Jobs Club
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Contents
• Past
• Present
• Future
• Conclusions and “Advice”
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PastGreat Recession: Things that Never Happened Before
• Four negative U.S. GDP quarters in a row• Global GDP declined• The U.S. and Japan were in recession at
same time• Personal consumption expenditures were
down 3 out of four quarters, with the one registering just +0.1%
• Longest downturn since Great Depression• Twice as long as post-war average recession
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PastGDP Loss
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Past Sharp Decline, Slow Recovery (National Job Loss)
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PastWI Employment Change Relative the US
Indexed Employment Change (December 2007 = 1)
Source: BLS, CES, Seasonally Adjusted Total Non Farm Employment
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PastWI vs. Tri-county Region
Source: U.S. BLS, QCEW
Employment Change from Same Month of 2007
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PastIndustry Employment Mix
Source: WI WORKnet, QCEW
Share of Total Covered Employment
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PastManufacturing Employment
Source: U.S. BLS, QCEW
Employment Change from Same Month of 2007
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Past Manufacturing Sector Industry Mix
Source: U.S Census Bureau, 2012 Q3 QWI
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Present Initial UI Claims Near Pre-Recession Levels
DWD, Unemployment Insurance Division, Custom Report
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PresentSteady Job Growth (Statewide)
Source: U.S. BLS, QCEW, WI OEA Unofficial Seasonal Adjustment
Total Covered Employment (Wisconsin)
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PresentSteady Job Growth (Regional)
Source: U.S. BLS, QCEW, WI OEA Unofficial Seasonal Adjustment
Total Covered Employment (Tri-County)
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Present“Uneven” Manufacturing Growth
Source: U.S. BLS, QCEW, WI OEA Seasonal Adjustment
2011 2012 Change % ChangeManufacturing 24,317 24,402 85 0.3%Paper Mfg 4,797 4,521 -276 -6.1%Wood Product Mfg 3,310 2,930 -380 -13.0%Fabricated Metal Product Mfg 3,546 3,866 320 8.3%Machinery Mfg 3,471 3,591 120 3.3%
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PresentUnemployment Rates Still High, but Declining
Source: WI DWD, LAUS
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Present Housing Starts Low, but Improving
Source: U.S Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, Annual Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)
Average = 1,351,000
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FutureFastest Growing Occupations
OccupationBase Employment
Projection Employment
Numeric Change
Percent Change
Growth Openings
Replacement Openings
Total Openings
Helpers--carpenters 600 880 280 46.7% 280 160 440Bicycle repairers 450 660 210 46.7% 210 120 330Helpers--brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble setters 310 450 140 45.2% 140 80 220Cargo and freight agents 640 910 270 42.2% 270 160 430Glaziers 530 750 220 41.5% 220 200 420Reinforcing iron and rebar workers 420 590 170 40.5% 170 90 260Meeting and convention planners 1,510 2,120 610 40.4% 610 290 900Interpreters and translators 1,540 2,150 610 39.6% 610 410 1,020Diagnostic medical sonographers 1,070 1,490 420 39.3% 420 170 590Helpers--pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters 360 500 140 38.9% 140 90 230
2010-2020 Employment Projections: Ten Fastest Growing Occupations
Source: WI OEA, Long-term Employment Projections 2010-2020
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FutureReplacements Openings
OccupationBase Employment
Projection Employment
Numeric Change
Percent Change
Growth Openings
Secondary School Teachers, except special and vocational education 20,410 20,270 -140 -0.7 0
• Example: Secondary Teacher
Source: WI OEA, Long-term Employment Projections 2010-2020
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FutureReplacements Openings
OccupationBase Employment
Projection Employment
Numeric Change
Percent Change
Growth Openings
Secondary School Teachers, except special and vocational education 20,410 20,270 -140 -0.7 0
• Example: Secondary Teacher
Replacement Openings
5,580Source: WI OEA, Long-term Employment Projections 2010-2020
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FutureAging Population
Source: WI DOA, Population Projections 2010-2040
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FutureAging Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 ACS
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FutureFlat Labor Force Growth
Source: U.S Census Bureau, DWD LAUS, WI OEA
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FutureTechnology and Innovation
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FutureIncreased Training Needs
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Conclusion
• The recovery is sustainable
• Prospects for job seekers are improving
• Expect increased use of technology and increased need for training
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“Advice”
• Communicate
• Network
• Qualifications vs. requirements
• Show interest in specific job and employer
• Focus on reasons you would make an excellent employee
• Always have sights set on “next step”
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Contact Information
The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development’s Office ofEconomic Advisors (OEA) is charged with assisting all interestedparties in better understanding their local economies. OEA haslabor economists positioned throughout Wisconsin to help thoseinvolved in economic and workforce Development. For more information about this region please contact: Tom WalshRegional Economist—North Central Wisconsin [email protected]