TodayGeneral remarks

The science and politics of global warming

Dealing with global warming: the Kyoto Protocol & beyond

General remarks

Philosophy, science, economics & politics

Philosophy

Science

Economics

Politics

Precautionary principlePrecautionary principle““When an activity raises threats of When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the harm to human health or the environment, precautionary environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships some cause and effect relationships are not fully established are not fully established scientifically. In this context the scientifically. In this context the proponent of an activity, rather than proponent of an activity, rather than the public, should bear the burden the public, should bear the burden of proof.”of proof.”

An integrated systemThe biosphereThe biosphere

Plant life

Animal lifeMicro-

organisms

Humans

WaterWater Atmosphere

WateWaterr

AtmosphereAtmosphere

SoilSoil

SoilSoil

Outer spaceOuter space

Outer spaceOuter space

Outer spaceOuter space

Outer spaceOuter space

Sun / heatSun / heat+ meteorites+ meteorites

Sun / heatSun / heat+ meteorites+ meteorites

Sun / heatSun / heat+ meteorites+ meteorites

Sun / heatSun / heat+ meteorites+ meteorites

Sun / heatSun / heat+ meteorites+ meteorites

The environment & global politics: Some milestones1972: UN Conference of the Human Environment

1987: the Brundtland Report is published

1992: UN Conference on Environment and Development (a.k.a. Rio Summit, Earth Summit)

2002: World Summit on Sustainable Development (a.k.a. Rio+10, Johannesburg Summit)

Sustainable development: An elusive (or illusory?) goal

Sustainable development Sustainable development according to the according to the Brundtland ReportBrundtland Report“… “… the development that the development that meets the needs of the meets the needs of the present without compro-present without compro-mising the ability of future mising the ability of future generations to meet their generations to meet their own needown needss,” Brundtland ,” Brundtland Commission, Commission, Our Common Our Common FutureFuture, p. 43., p. 43.

EconomyEconomyGrowth, jobs, rising incomes,

consumption

SocialSocialSocial & economic equality

LiveableLiveableworldworld

EquitableEquitableworldworld

ViableViableworldworld

??EnvironmentEnvironment

No disruption of nature

World population growth, A.D. 0 to 2011

Year Population (est.)

0

1000

1250

1500

1750

1800

300,000,000

310,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

790,000,000

980,000,000

Year Population (est.)

1850

1900

1950

2000

2011

1,260,000,000

1,650,000,000

2,520,000,000

6,000,000,000

7,000,000,000

23-fold increase

The ecological footprint

2008

See 1961

2008

Look it up for specific countries

The ecological footprint & the Human Development Index

Major issuesDrinking water

Desertification & farmland scarcity

Deforestation

Loss of biodiversity & genetic diversity

Global warming

The science & politicsof global warming

The issueGreenhouses gases

(GHGs)

From coal, oil & gas burning

Temperature rise(see Annexes 1 & 2)

“Carbon equivalent” measurements

Key GHGsKey GHGs- water vapour- water vapour- carbon dioxide - carbon dioxide

(CO(CO22))- methane- methane- nitrous oxide- nitrous oxide- chloro-chloro-

fluorocarbonsfluorocarbons- tropospheric tropospheric

ozoneozone

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html

Not included in graph:Not included in graph:water vapourwater vapour

Generated by humans

There is an accelerationThere is an accelerationof the warming trendof the warming trend

1961-1990 average1961-1990 average

Source: IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC.

Greenland summer thaw 1992-2007Greenland summer thaw 1992-2007

19921992 20022002 20072007

West Antarctica Ice SheetWest Antarctica Ice Sheet Winter ice limitWinter ice limit

+21ft +16ft

Major environmental transformation with significant consequences

Life & property destroyed

Conflict for access to land & water

Migration

Costly adaptation (some can’t)

International cooperation necessary

Dealing with global warming:The Kyoto Protocol & beyondNB: Most graph & maps in this section come from: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Geneva: IPCC, 2008)Next update: 2014

The Kyoto Protocol, 1997-2012Signed Dec. ’97, in effect Feb. ’05

38 industrial countries agree to5.3% reduction in GHG below 1990 level by 2012or 29% below predictions for 2012

A major economic issuechange of lifestyle for industrial country peoplereluctance of developing countries to give up cheap

energymassive expensive investment in new technologies

Most governments unwilling to take bold first steps

Change by countryIncreases in

some West European countries, US & Canada

Decrease in some West European countries and all East European countries

All these countriesAll these countriesare supposed toare supposed tobe at minus 5.2% by 2012be at minus 5.2% by 2012(on average)(on average)

* LULUCF: land-use, land-use change and forestryDepending on agriculture and tree-cutting the amount of carbon released varies throughout the year

*

Projected GHGs emissions for developed vs. Developing countries

Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Carbon-equivalent emissions per person per year by country, 2007

Scientific evidence & the struggle for public opinionGlobal warming skeptics/deniers

IPCC peer review processarguments against global warming

“Climategate”: 2009 hacking into scientists’ email

The credibility of spokespersonsAl Gore’s business interestsIPCC chairman’s idiosyncracies (vegetarian &

amateur poet)errors in the IPCC report

Common skeptics’ argumentsCommon skeptics’ arguments• Absence of scientific consensusAbsence of scientific consensus• Models are not reliableModels are not reliable• Sun’s activity causes warmingSun’s activity causes warming• Temperature records are impreciseTemperature records are imprecise• Warming or cooling is not newWarming or cooling is not new

Common skeptics’ argumentsCommon skeptics’ arguments• Absence of scientific consensusAbsence of scientific consensus• Models are not reliableModels are not reliable• Sun’s activity causes warmingSun’s activity causes warming• Temperature records are impreciseTemperature records are imprecise• Warming or cooling is not newWarming or cooling is not new

Dealing with global warming: Emissions trading permits“Cap-and-trade”

Putting a ceiling on GHG emissions

GHG trading market+ fines

Rationale

Dealing with climate change: Carbon taxPutting a price on GHG : polluter pay principle

Making polluting technologies unattractive

A revenue-neutral tax

Hard to implement

Hard to sell to voters: “It’s a freakin’ tax grab!”

Conclusions

Global problems caused by human actionsBillions of people affectedA slow motion catastrophe Requiring

change in outlook change in behaviourinternational cooperation

Progress is slow (see Annex 3)

Annex 1:Global warming by Earth zonesAnnex 1:Global warming by Earth zones

(Arctic)

(Antarctic)

Source: IPCC. (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC.

+ 0.45+ 0.45

+ 0.6+ 0.6

+ 1.45+ 1.45

+ 0.4+ 0.4

+ 0.3+ 0.3

+ 0.3+ 0.3

Source: IPCC. (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC.

Temperatures change from 1979-2005 measured at ground level (surface) Temperatures change from 1979-2005 measured at ground level (surface) and in the troposphere (atmosphere below 8,000-15,000 m)and in the troposphere (atmosphere below 8,000-15,000 m)

Annex 2: Temp changes at Annex 2: Temp changes at ground level and in the ground level and in the tropospheretroposphere

Annex 3: Beyond the Kyoto Protocol: Annex 3: Beyond the Kyoto Protocol: Copenhagen & Cancun summitsCopenhagen & Cancun summits

Copenhagen summit (2009)Copenhagen summit (2009) no replacement for Kyoto Protocolno replacement for Kyoto Protocol agreed to limit temp increase to 2°Cagreed to limit temp increase to 2°C recognized the scientific case recognized the scientific case set no targetsset no targets set no peak date for emissionsset no peak date for emissions set no deadline for an agreementset no deadline for an agreement did not address deforestationdid not address deforestation

Cancun summit (2010)Cancun summit (2010) develop adaptation mechanismsdevelop adaptation mechanisms reporting of mitigation effortsreporting of mitigation efforts $30bn for developing countries for 2010-$30bn for developing countries for 2010-

1212 $100bn by 2020$100bn by 2020 technology transfer to LDCstechnology transfer to LDCs capacity-building in LDCscapacity-building in LDCs

Source: Toonpool.comSource: Toonpool.com