Tobii Year end: Dec 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E NOT TO BE … · 2019-09-26 · Results Preview...

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research.sebgroup.com/corporate Important. All disclosure information can be found on pages 12 – 14 of this document Corporate Research Tobii NOT TO BE DISTRIBUTED IN, OR TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO, THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN, AUSTRALIA OR IN ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD BE UNLAWFUL. Results Preview IT/Technology Sweden 26 September 2019 Look beyond the Smartbox uncertainty Ahead of Tobii’s Q3 report we believe Tobii Pro will return to growth (we estimate 16% growth y/y vs 1% in Q2) delivering on the increased Q2 backlog, although the internal issues in Dynavox could also hamper growth in Q3. We expect the Smartbox uncertainty to limit the share price upside short term, before getting clarity on the divestment process. We have made no EPS revisions and have a fair share price range of SEK 39-54. Many moving parameters but Tobii Tech should continue to perform We expect the internal issues Dynavox experienced in Q2 to persist into Q3, following delays in administrative processes and increasing backlogs, while we believe Pro will return to growth (we estimate Pro 16% growth y/y vs 1% in Q2). We expect Tobii Tech to grow 46% y/y in Q3 (vs 56% in Q2), when delivering on H1 VR/gaming announcements and following good traction in niche markets. Following this we expect the group to grow 23% in the quarter, vs 24% in Q2 (around 12% of this coming from Smartbox). Waiting for more clarity regarding Smartbox The decision this summer by the UK’s Competition & Markets Authority to reject the Smartbox acquisition – a full year after the original announcement in August 2018 – has diverted attention from the underlying story, despite Smartbox only being 3% of Tobii’s market cap. We believe the weightier issue is the targets for Tobii group to break even in 2020 and Tobii Tech to break even in 2021. If this can be achieved, any disappointment on Smartbox should fade. No EPS revisions and fair share price range SEK 39-54 Ahead of the Q3 report we have made no estimate revisions and have a peer valuation based fair share price range of SEK 39-54. We have further estimated Smartbox being out of the numbers from Q1 2020. Key Data (2019E) Price (SEK) Reuters Bloomberg Market cap (SEKm) Market cap (USDm) Market cap (EURm) Net debt (SEKm) Net gearing Net debt/EBITDA (x) 0.6 Shares fully dil. (m) Avg daily turnover (m) Free float TOBII.ST TOBII:SS 3,466 355 35.62 85% 325 37 5% 97.3 0.0 Share Price (12M) Absolute (green) / Relative to Sweden (purple). 25 30 35 40 45 50 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Financials (SEK) Source for all data on this page: SEB (estimates) and SIX/Thomson Reuters (prices) Year end: Dec 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Revenues (m) 1,079 1,302 1,613 1,771 2,089 Adj. EBIT (191) (191) (117) (29) 116 Pre-tax profit (m) (225) (166) (145) (52) 93 EPS (1.98) (1.79) (1.56) (0.56) 0.75 Adj. EPS (1.98) (1.93) (1.74) (0.56) 0.75 DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Revenue growth (%) 2.4 20.7 23.8 9.8 18.0 Adj. EBIT growth (%) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. Adj. EPS growth (%) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. Adj. EBIT margin (%) (17.7) (14.7) (8.5) (1.7) 5.5 ROE (%) (16.9) (18.4) (20.1) (8.4) 10.9 ROCE (%) (14.7) (17.8) (13.8) (2.8) 10.9 PER (x) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 47.8 Free cash flow yield (%) (6.4) (9.0) (6.4) (3.8) (0.1) Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/BV (x) 3.25 3.16 5.08 5.52 4.95 EV/Sales (x) 2.76 1.88 2.17 2.00 1.69 EV/Adj. EBITDA (x) (57.1) (88.2) 43.2 19.2 10.6 EV/Adj. EBIT (x) (15.6) (12.8) (30.0) (120.9) 30.5 Operating cash flow/EV (%) (1.2) (0.5) 2.1 4.9 8.9 Net debt/Adj. EBITDA (x) 8.92 6.91 0.61 0.37 0.21 Results due: 24 October Estimate Revisions (%) 2019E 2020E 2021E Revenues (0) 0 0 Adj. EBIT 0 0 0 Adj. EPS (0) 0 0 Marketing communication commissioned by: Tobii

Transcript of Tobii Year end: Dec 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E NOT TO BE … · 2019-09-26 · Results Preview...

Page 1: Tobii Year end: Dec 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E NOT TO BE … · 2019-09-26 · Results Preview Marketing communication commissioned by: Tobii 26 September 2019 2 Corporate Research

research.sebgroup.com/corporate Important. All disclosure information can be found on pages 12 – 14 of this document

Corporate Research Tobii NOT TO BE DISTRIBUTED IN, OR TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO, THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, JAPAN, AUSTRALIA OR IN ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD BE UNLAWFUL.

Results Preview IT/Technology Sweden 26 September 2019

Look beyond the Smartbox uncertainty Ahead of Tobii’s Q3 report we believe Tobii Pro will return to growth (we estimate 16% growth y/y vs 1% in Q2) delivering on the increased Q2 backlog, although the internal issues in Dynavox could also hamper growth in Q3. We expect the Smartbox uncertainty to limit the share price upside short term, before getting clarity on the divestment process. We have made no EPS revisions and have a fair share price range of SEK 39-54.

Many moving parameters but Tobii Tech should continue to perform We expect the internal issues Dynavox experienced in Q2 to persist into Q3, following delays in administrative processes and increasing backlogs, while we believe Pro will return to growth (we estimate Pro 16% growth y/y vs 1% in Q2). We expect Tobii Tech to grow 46% y/y in Q3 (vs 56% in Q2), when delivering on H1 VR/gaming announcements and following good traction in niche markets. Following this we expect the group to grow 23% in the quarter, vs 24% in Q2 (around 12% of this coming from Smartbox).

Waiting for more clarity regarding Smartbox The decision this summer by the UK’s Competition & Markets Authority to reject the Smartbox acquisition – a full year after the original announcement in August 2018 – has diverted attention from the underlying story, despite Smartbox only being 3% of Tobii’s market cap. We believe the weightier issue is the targets for Tobii group to break even in 2020 and Tobii Tech to break even in 2021. If this can be achieved, any disappointment on Smartbox should fade.

No EPS revisions and fair share price range SEK 39-54 Ahead of the Q3 report we have made no estimate revisions and have a peer valuation based fair share price range of SEK 39-54. We have further estimated Smartbox being out of the numbers from Q1 2020.

Key Data (2019E)

Price (SEK)ReutersBloomberg

Market cap (SEKm)Market cap (USDm)Market cap (EURm)Net debt (SEKm)Net gearingNet debt/EBITDA (x) 0.6

Shares fully dil. (m)Avg daily turnover (m)Free float

TOBII.STTOBII:SS

3,466355

35.62

85%

32537

5%

97.30.0

Share Price (12M)

Absolute (green) / Relative to Sweden (purple).

25

30

35

40

45

50

Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep

Financials (SEK)

Source for all data on this page: SEB (estimates) and SIX/Thomson Reuters (prices)

Year end: Dec 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021ERevenues (m) 1,079 1,302 1,613 1,771 2,089Adj. EBIT (191) (191) (117) (29) 116Pre-tax profit (m) (225) (166) (145) (52) 93EPS (1.98) (1.79) (1.56) (0.56) 0.75Adj. EPS (1.98) (1.93) (1.74) (0.56) 0.75DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Revenue growth (%) 2.4 20.7 23.8 9.8 18.0Adj. EBIT growth (%) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.Adj. EPS growth (%) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.

Adj. EBIT margin (%) (17.7) (14.7) (8.5) (1.7) 5.5ROE (%) (16.9) (18.4) (20.1) (8.4) 10.9ROCE (%) (14.7) (17.8) (13.8) (2.8) 10.9

PER (x) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 47.8Free cash flow yield (%) (6.4) (9.0) (6.4) (3.8) (0.1)Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0P/BV (x) 3.25 3.16 5.08 5.52 4.95

EV/Sales (x) 2.76 1.88 2.17 2.00 1.69EV/Adj. EBITDA (x) (57.1) (88.2) 43.2 19.2 10.6EV/Adj. EBIT (x) (15.6) (12.8) (30.0) (120.9) 30.5Operating cash flow/EV (%) (1.2) (0.5) 2.1 4.9 8.9Net debt/Adj. EBITDA (x) 8.92 6.91 0.61 0.37 0.21

Results due: 24 October

Estimate Revisions (%)

2019E 2020E 2021ERevenues (0) 0 0Adj. EBIT 0 0 0Adj. EPS (0) 0 0

Marketing communication commissioned by: Tobii

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Revisions Earnings revision (SEK) 2019E 2020E 2021E Revenues (m) Old 1,613 1,770 2,088 New 1,613 1,771 2,089 Change (%) (0) 0 0 Operating profit (m) Old (134) (29) 116 New (138) (29) 116 Change (%) (3) 0 0 Pre-tax profit (m) Old (141) (52) 93 New (145) (52) 93 Change (%) (3) 0 0 EPS (reported) Old (1.53) (0.56) 0.75 New (1.56) (0.56) 0.75 Change (%) (3) 0 0 EPS (adjusted) Old (1.74) (0.56) 0.75 New (1.74) (0.56) 0.75 Change (%) (0) 0 0

Source: SEB

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Case in four charts Dependency on Dynavox continues to decrease Tobii Pro to gain from increased market shares

Source: SEB, Company data Source: SEB, Company data

Tobii Tech external sales rapidly growing Getting closer to 2020 breakeven target

Source: SEB, Company data Source: SEB, Company data

0

200

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SEK

m

Dynavox Pro Tech external sales Tech internal sales to Dynavox and Pro

27%of

Sales

61%of

Sales

12% of Sales

0

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0

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EBIT in SEK m

, LTM

Sale

s in

SEK

m, L

TM

Sales EBIT

Tobii Pro market share from 47%

to 60%

47 48 50 49 52 52 54 58 59 62 66 68 70

16 23

4760

69 73 6770 72

7784

95111

0

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Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19

Tobi

i Tec

h Sa

les

LTM

, SEK

m

Tech internal sales to Dynavox and Pro Tech external sales

Sales CAGR LTM 2Q16-2Q19: 43%

61% of sales

-40%

-35%

-30%

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0%

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Group sales, LTM Group R&D, LTM

Group R&D/Sales, LTM (%) Group LBIT-margin, LTM (%)

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Valuation Peer valuation

Tobii Peer groups

Mkt cap.

Share performance

PER

EV/EBITDA

EV/(EBITDA-Capex)

EV/EBIT

EV/sales

Dynavox peers: Assistive Medical Equipment Ccy lcl, bn 1M 3M 12M 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 Amplifon SpA EUR 5 -3% 8% 14% 36 30 20 17 25 21 33 27 3.7 3.4 GN Store Nord A/S DKK 40 -5% -10% -13% 24 20 16 15 20 18 21 18 3.7 3.3 Handicare Group AB SEK 2 -2% -11% -16% 11 12 9 8 11 10 14 13 1.1 1.0 MedCap AB (publ) SEK 2 4% 13% 47% 26 20 13 11 16 14 20 17 2.6 2.4 Sonova Holding AG CHF 15 -2% 0% 15% 31 27 22 19 22 20 27 24 5.3 5.0 Demant A/S DKK 45 -12% -11% -27% 23 19 16 14 19 17 20 17 3.5 3.1

Peer group average 18 -3% -2% 3% 25 21 16 14 19 17 22 19 3 3 Peer group median 10 -2% -5% 1% 25 20 16 14 20 18 20 18 4 3

Pro peers: Commercial Research NanoFocus AG EUR 0 -4% -19% -24% - - 22 9 n.a. n.a. -15 154 0.7 0.6 Smart Eye AB (publ) SEK 1 8% -4% 37% - - -17 -29 -11 -14 -14 -19 19.7 9.8 Seeing Machines Ltd GBP 0 5% 40% -36% - - -5 -8 -4 -7 -5 -8 8.0 5.0 Utechzone Co Ltd TWD 4 -16% -7% 35% 7 8 - - n.a. n.a. 7 7 1.2 1.1

Peer group average 1 -2% 3% 3% 7 8.46 0 -10 -8 -10 -7 34 7 4 Peer group median 1 0% -5% 6% 7 8.46 -5 -8 -8 -10 -10 0 5 3

Pro peers: Nordic High Growth Tech Peers Doro AB SEK 1 13% 14% -4% 10 9 4 3 13 6 6 5 0.4 0.4 Edgeware AB (publ) SEK 0 8% -10% -51% - - -7 5 -15 29 -2 67 0.4 0.3 Enea AB SEK 3 1% 2% 29% 15 14 11 10 290 12 13 13 3.5 3.3 HMS Networks AB SEK 6 -18% -28% -15% 36 26 21 17 27 21 25 20 4.2 3.9 IAR Systems Group AB SEK 3 -1% -17% -14% 32 22 19 14 38 22 24 18 6.9 5.8 Invisio Communications AB SEK 3 5% 7% 25% 43 31 30 20 28 19 33 24 7.2 5.7 Micro Systemation AB (publ) SEK 1 6% -20% -53% 123 22 29 11 22 8 61 14 1.9 1.6 Mycronic AB (publ) SEK 12 1% 7% 30% 15 20 10 13 11 14 11 14 2.8 3.0 RaySearch Laboratories AB (publ) SEK 4 -13% 24% 24% 54 41 13 12 22 18 30 23 5.0 4.3 SECTRA AB SEK 12 -13% -7% 34% 66 62 37 37 36 37 44 48 8.1 7.4

Peer group average 5 -1% -3% 0% 44 27 17 14 47 19 24 25 4 4 Peer group median 3 1% -3% 10% 36 22 16 12 25 19 25 19 4 4

Tech peers: Massmarket Components Egis Technology Inc TWD 20 13% 22% 149% 17 12 12 8 11 7 13 9 2.3 1.9 Fingerprint Cards AB SEK 6 6% 5% 68% - 212 - 22 n.a. 35 -174 127 3.7 3.0 HMS Networks AB SEK 6 -18% -28% -15% 36 26 21 17 27 21 25 20 4.2 3.9 Paragon Id SA EUR 0 -11% -4% 14% - 21 12 9 21 13 35 16 0.9 0.8 Precise Biometrics AB SEK 1 -13% 23% 1% - 83 - - n.a. n.a. -26 75 9.0 9.0 Synaptics Inc USD 1 21% 45% -15% 10 14 7 9 7 9 9 12 1.0 1.2

Peer group average 6 0% 10% 34% 21 61 13 13 17 17 -19 43 4 3 Peer group median 3 -3% 13% 7% 17 24 12 9 16 13 11 18 3 2

Tobii Dynavox peer median 10 -2% -5% 1% 25 20 16 14 20 18 20 18 4 3 Tobii Pro peer median 3 1% -3% 10% 36 22 16 12 25 19 25 19 4 4 Tobii Tech peer median 3 -3% 13% 7% 17 24 12 9 16 13 11 18 3 2 Total Peer group average 7 -2% 1% 9% 32 34 14 11 29 15 9 29 4 3 Total group median 3 -1% -2% 7% 26 21 13 11 21 17 17 18 4 3 Source: SEB, Thomson Reuters

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Sum-of-the-parts valuation

SOTP EV (SEKm) Multiples 2020E

Dynavox EV/EBIT 2019E 2,381 18 EV/EBITDA-capex 2019E 2,676 18 Average 2,528

Pro EV/EBIT 2019E 1,544 19 EV/EBITDA-capex 2019E 1,141 19 Average 1,342

Tech Bull case: Tech reaching SEK 500m in Sales 2020 1,400 3

EV/S 2020E 792 2 EV/S 2019E 654 3 Base case: Average of 2019 and 2020 723

Bear case: No value 0

Enterprise value (SEKm) Enterprise value (per share) Bull case 5,271 54 Base case 4,594 47 Bear case 3,871 40

Net debt - bull case -14 0 Net debt - base case 37 0 Net debt - bear 63 1

Market cap (SEKm) Market cap (per share) Bull case 5,285 54 Base case 4,558 47 Bear case 3,808 39 Source: SEB, Thomson Reuters

DCF valuation DCF Valuation

DCF valuation (SEKm) Weighted average cost of capital (%) NPV of FCF in explicit forecast period 2,641 Risk free interest rate 2.5 NPV of continuing value 1,437 Risk premium 6.5 Value of operation 4,078 Cost of equity 9.0

Net debt 37 After tax cost of debt 1.9 Share issue/buy-back in forecast period - Value of associated companies - WACC 9.0 Value of minority shareholders' equity - Value of marketable assets - Assumptions DCF value of equity 4,041 Number of forecast years 20 DCF value per share (SEK) 42 EBIT margin - steady state (%) 10.6 Current share price (SEK) 35.62 EBIT multiple - steady state (x) 8.7 DCF performance potential (%) 17 Continuing value (% of NPV) 35.2 Source: SEB

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Sensitivity analysis - I

Cost of Equity (%) 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 80 68 62 58 53 49 Equity capital 90 58 53 49 45 42 weight (%) 100 49 45 42 38 35 100 49 45 41 38 35 100 49 45 41 38 35 Absolute change in EBITDA margin - all years -2% -1% 0 +1% +2% -2% 26 30 33 36 40 Abs. change in -1% 30 33 37 41 44 sales growth - 0 33 37 42 46 50 all years +1% 38 42 47 51 56 +2% 42 47 52 57 62 Source: SEB

Sensitivity analysis II

Average Average Average (SEKm) 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E year 6-10 year 11-15 year 16-20

Sales growth (%) 23.8 9.8 18.0 15.0 14.0 11.0 7.0 3.8 EBITDA margin (%) 2.4 10.4 15.9 16.0 17.0 20.4 21.0 21.0 EBIT margin (%) (8.5) (1.7) 5.5 5.6 6.6 10.0 10.6 10.6 Gross capital expenditures as % of sales 18.4 11.6 15.1 13.0 12.0 10.5 10.4 10.4 Working capital as % of sales (5.6) (6.0) (6.3) (6.3) (6.3) (6.3) (6.3) (6.3)

Sales 1,613 1,771 2,089 2,403 2,739 3,831 5,740 7,357 Depreciation (177) (213) (217) (249) (284) (397) (595) (763) Intangibles amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT (138) (29) 116 135 182 389 610 782 Taxes on EBIT 32 7 (27) (31) (42) (90) (140) (180) Increase in deferred taxes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NOPLAT (106) (23) 89 104 140 300 470 602

Gross capital expenditure (297) (206) (316) (312) (329) (401) (595) (763) Increase in working capital 60 17 24 20 21 24 23 17 Free cash flow (166) 1 14 61 116 319 493 619

ROIC (%) (9.8) (2.2) 8.1 9.1 12.0 27.1 47.4 67.5 ROIC-WACC (%) (18.8) (11.2) (0.8) 0.1 3.0 18.1 38.4 58.5 Share of total net present value (%) 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 21.4 21.9 17.9

Source: SEB

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Interims Interim financial statement

Financial statement Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19E Q4/19E 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E (SEKm) Revenues 294 307 313 389 393 372 387 461 1,079 1,302 1,613 1,771 2,089 Cost of goods sold (87) (91) (90) (121) (127) (117) (117) (140) (316) (389) (500) (526) (622) Gross profit 207 215 223 268 266 255 270 321 763 913 1,113 1,245 1,467 Total operating expenses (245) (275) (283) (303) (303) (306) (314) (328) (955) (1,105) (1,251) (1,274) (1,351) EBIT (37) (60) (60) (35) (37) (51) (43) (7) (191) (191) (138) (29) 116 NRI 0 0 0 10 9 8 4 0 0 20 21 0 0 Adj EBIT (37) (60) (60) (25) (28) (43) (39) (7) (191) (211) (117) (29) 116 Financial net 6 19 (4) 4 7 (8) (3) (3) (34) 25 (7) (23) (23) Reported pre-tax profit (30) (41) (64) (31) (30) (59) (46) (10) (225) (166) (145) (52) 93 Total taxes (1) 0 (5) (3) (3) 1 (3) (2) 33 (8) (7) (3) (20) Net profit (32) (41) (68) (34) (33) (59) (50) (12) (192) (174) (152) (55) 73 IFRS 16 7 7 7 7 27 26 26

EBITDA (inc IFRS 16) 13 (20) (22) 2 6 (12) 1 45 (52) (28) 39 184 333 Gross margin (%) 70.3 70.2 71.4 68.9 67.7 68.7 69.8 69.7 70.7 70.1 69.0 70.3 70.2 EBITDA margin. Inc IFRS (%) 4.3 (6.5) (7.0) 0.4 1.5 (3.3) 0.2 9.7 (4.8) (2.1) 2.4 10.4 15.9 EBIT margin (%) (12.6) (19.4) (19.1) (6.4) (7.1) (11.5) (10.1) (1.5) (17.7) (16.2) (7.2) (1.7) 5.5 Pre-tax margin (%) (10.3) (13.3) (20.3) (8.0) (7.6) (15.9) (11.9) (2.1) (20.9) (12.7) (9.0) (2.9) 4.5 Revenue growth (%) 13.5 16.0 25.4 27.0 33.7 21.3 23.7 18.5 2.4 20.7 23.8 9.8 18.0 Source: SEB

Divisional breakdown

Net sales by market unit Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19E Q4/19E 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E (SEKm) Dynavox 175 199 207 241 246 247 253 274 708 822 1,019 989 1,092 Pro 98 92 88 120 115 93 102 138 304 397 448 538 646 Tech 37 32 34 48 50 49 49 71 121 150 219 326 442 Other (15) (16) (15) (20) (17) (18) (17) (22) (54) (66) (74) (82) (90) Group total 294 307 313 389 393 372 387 461 1,079 1,302 1,613 1,771 2,089 Reported growth (%) Dynavox (3) 8 32 28 40 24 23 13 (7) 16 24 (3) 10 Pro 61 39 10 23 18 1 16 16 24 30 13 20 20 Tech 25 7 35 29 36 56 46 49 25 24 46 48 36 Other 37 3 31 24 13 12 12 12 9 22 12 10 10 Group total reported growth 14 16 25 27 34 21 24 18 2 21 24 10 18 EBIT Dynavox 14 22 18 15 19 21 22 39 74 69 101 133 204 Pro 15 1 4 24 23 (3) 9 23 26 45 52 80 97 Tech (67) (83) (82) (74) (80) (72) (74) (65) (291) (305) (291) (243) (185) Other 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Group total (37) (60) (60) (35) (37) (51) (43) (7) (191) (191) (138) (29) 116 EBIT margin (%) Dynavox 8 11 9 6 8 9 9 14 10 8 10 13 19 Pro 16 2 5 20 20 (3) 9 17 8 11 12 15 15 Tech (182) (261) (242) (154) (161) (145) (150) (92) (241) (203) (133) (74) (42) Other 0 0 0 0 (6) (10) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Group total (13) (19) (19) (9) (9) (14) (11) (1) (18) (15) (9) (2) 6 Source: SEB

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Overview Investment considerations

Dynavox should continue to grow revenues and profits ahead due to increased market penetration and new products. For Tobii Pro, we see a clear benefit with eye tracking in its focused customer segments and Apple's acquisition of SensoMotoric Instruments (SMI) has limited competition and should catalyse increased market penetration. Tech's focus on bringing eye-tracking into mainstream and gaming computers and VR will ramp up in 2019 and we see the goal of reaching profitability in 2021 as reachable.

Company profile

The Tobii Group is an eye-tracking company and consists of three divisions: Tobii Dynavox, Tobii Pro and Tobii Tech. Tobii Dynavox is Tobii's largest business unit, focusing on individuals with special needs who are unable to speak without assistive technology. Tobii Pro is the second largest business unit and sells its eye tracking software and hardware products to commercial enterprises and research institutions to give insights into human behaviour, attention and cognitive processes. Tobii Tech is the business unit that focuses on the mass market by developing hardware and software to be integrated into devices such as mainstream computers, gaming computers and VR headsets.

Valuation approach

Our valuation approach for Tobii uses a separate peer comparison for each of its three business units that we have built into a sum-of-the parts structure. We have also applied a DCF to the business as a whole.

Risks Key risks are that Tobii Tech is not developing the way we expect and price pressure

risk due to interest in eye tracking products from large players such as Apple, Google and Facebook. The price pressure risk is significant in all segments due to increased competition.

Revenues by region Revenues by division

Source: SEB Source: SEB

Sweden: 2% Other Nordic: 0%Other Europe: 20% Americas: 60%Asia: 0% RoW: 18%

Dynavox61%

Pro 27%

Tech12%

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Profit & loss statement - Tobii(SEKm) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021ENet Sales 0 967 1,053 1,079 1,302 1,613 1,771 2,089Other revenues 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Total revenues 0 967 1,053 1,079 1,302 1,613 1,771 2,089

Total expenses 0 (886) (1,003) (1,131) (1,330) (1,574) (1,587) (1,757)Profit before depreciation 0 81 50 (52) (28) 39 184 333

Depreciation - Fixed assets 0 (28) (23) (20) (23) (37) (68) (71)Depreciation - Other assets 0 (89) (94) (119) (128) (140) (145) (146)Amortisation - Goodwill 0 0 0 0 (12) 0 0 0Amortisation - Other intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Operating profit 0 (36) (67) (191) (191) (138) (29) 116

Net interest expenses 0 8 19 (34) (1) (17) (23) (23)Foreign exchange items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Other financial items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Value changes - Fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Value changes - Financial assets 0 0 0 0 26 10 0 0Value changes - Other assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Reported pre-tax profit 0 (27) (48) (225) (166) (145) (52) 93

Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Total taxes 0 5 (4) 33 (8) (7) (3) (20)Reported profit after tax 0 (22) (52) (192) (174) (152) (55) 73

Discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Extraordinary items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Profit 0 (22) (52) (192) (174) (152) (55) 73

Adjustments:Discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Interest on convertible debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Minority interests (IFRS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Value changes 0 0 0 0 (26) (10) 0 0Goodwill/intangibles amortisations 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0Restructuring charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Other adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 (6) 0 0Tax effect of adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 (1) 0 0Adjusted profit after tax 0 (22) (52) (192) (188) (169) (55) 73

Margins, tax & returnsOperating margin 0.0 (3.7) (6.4) (17.7) (14.7) (8.5) (1.7) 5.5Pre-tax margin 0.0 (2.8) (4.5) (20.9) (12.7) (9.0) (2.9) 4.5Tax rate 0.0 19.0 (9.2) 14.7 (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) 22.0ROE 0.0 (3.7) (5.2) (16.9) (18.4) (20.1) (8.4) 10.9ROCE 0.0 (4.6) (5.8) (14.7) (17.8) (13.8) (2.8) 10.9

Growth rates y-o-y (%)Total revenues n.a. n.a. 8.9 2.4 20.7 23.8 9.8 18.0Operating profit n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.Pre-tax profit n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.EPS (adjusted) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cash flow(SEKm) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021ENet profit 0 (22) (52) (192) (174) (152) (55) 73Non-cash adjustments 0 108 109 130 153 167 213 217Cash flow before work cap 0 85 57 (62) (21) 15 158 289

Ch. in working capital / Other (101) (6) 11 27 8 60 17 24Operating cash flow (101) 80 69 (35) (13) 74 175 314

Capital expenditures 0 (123) (141) (186) (225) (297) (306) (316)Asset disposals 0 2 (2) (0) 0 0 0 0L/T financial investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Acquisitions / adjustments 0 0 0 0 (159) 0 100 0Free cash flow (101) (41) (75) (221) (396) (222) (31) (2)

Net loan proceeds 0 (142) 0 0 48 300 0 0Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Share issue 0 432 472 0 0 0 0 0Other 0 0 0 (8) (0) (0) 0 0Net change in cash (101) 250 397 (229) (349) 78 (31) (2)

AdjustmentsC/flow bef chng in work cap 0 85 57 (62) (21) 15 158 289Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Int on conv debt net of tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Cash earnings 0 85 57 (62) (21) 15 158 289

Per share informationCash earnings 0.0 1.09 0.62 (0.64) (0.21) 0.15 1.63 2.97Operating cash flow 0.0 1.02 0.74 (0.36) (0.13) 0.76 1.8 3.22Free cash flow 0.0 (0.52) (0.81) (2.28) (4.07) (2.28) (0.32) (0.02)

Investment coverCapex/sales (%) 0.0 3.1 1.8 2.5 1.8 3.5 3.2 2.7Capex/depreciation (%) 0 109 85 136 103 153 82 79

Source for all data on this page: SEB

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Balance sheet - Tobii(SEKm) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021ECash and liquid assets 119 371 772 537 192 270 239 237Debtors 148 169 152 146 207 208 228 269Inventories 51 46 67 59 87 88 97 114Other 31 30 39 41 59 59 59 59Current assets 350 615 1,030 783 544 625 623 679

Interest bearing fixed assets 50 55 55 90 89 89 89 89Other financial assets 4 2 4 4 0 10 10 10Capitalized development cost 219 223 255 293 346 446 551 665Goodwill 0 0 0 30 107 107 37 37Other intangibles 100 108 115 113 207 207 177 177Fixed tangible assets 31 32 28 31 151 170 158 143Other fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Fixed assets 403 420 457 560 899 1,029 1,021 1,121

Total assets 753 1,035 1,487 1,343 1,443 1,654 1,644 1,800

Creditors 54 44 59 62 102 106 121 143Other trade financing 0 0 0 0 251 309 340 401S/T interest bearing debt 140 154 160 161 0 0 0 0Other 76 24 23 28 29 29 29 29Current liabilities 269 222 241 251 382 445 490 573

L/T interest bearing debt 77 0 0 0 96 396 396 396Other long-term liabilities 14 18 22 31 118 118 118 118Convertible debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Pension provisions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Other provisions 4 2 8 2 5 5 5 5Deferred tax 1 1 0 0 7 7 7 7Long term liabilities 95 20 30 33 226 526 526 526

Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Shareholders' equity 389 794 1,215 1,058 835 683 628 701

Total liabilities and equity 753 1,035 1,487 1,343 1,443 1,653 1,644 1,799

Net debt (m) 48 (272) (667) (466) (192) 37 68 70Working capital (m) 101 177 177 156 (30) (90) (107) (131)Capital employed (m) 606 947 1,375 1,219 925 1,079 1,024 1,096Net debt/equity (%) 12 (34) (55) (44) (23) 5 11 10Net debt/EBITDA (x) n.a. (3.3) (13.3) 8.9 6.9 0.6 0.4 0.2Equity/total assets (%) 52 77 82 79 58 41 38 39Interest cover 0.0 4.2 3.5 (5.7) (206.2) (8.0) (1.3) 5.1

Valuation(SEK) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E

No of shares, fully dil. (y/e) 68.9 87.6 97.0 97.3 97.3 97.3 97.3 97.3No of shares, fully dil. avg. 0.0 78.3 92.3 97.2 97.3 97.3 97.3 97.3

Share price, y/e 65.7 68.3 35.4 27.1 35.6 35.6 35.6Share price, high 85.0 82.5 72.0 48.8 45.7Share price, low 31.7 40.6 33.3 25.5 27.2Share price, avg 49.4 61.5 47.7 37.3 36.6

EPS (reported) 0.00 (0.28) (0.57) (1.98) (1.79) (1.56) (0.56) 0.75EPS (adjusted) 0.00 (0.28) (0.57) (1.98) (1.93) (1.74) (0.56) 0.75Cash earnings/share 0.00 1.09 0.62 (0.64) (0.21) 0.15 1.63 2.97Dividend/share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Enterprise value/share 63 61 31 25 36 36 36Book value/share 5.6 9.1 12.5 10.9 8.6 7.0 6.5 7.2Adjusted equity/share 5.6 9.1 12.5 10.9 8.6 7.0 6.5 7.2

PER (adjusted) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 47.8CEM 60.2 110.1 (55.5) (126.0) 235.6 21.9 12.0Dividend yield 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EV/EBITDA 67.4 118.9 (57.1) (88.2) 58.2 19.2 10.6EV/EBITA (153.5) (88.7) (15.6) (13.7) (30.0) (120.9) 30.5EV/EBIT (153.5) (88.7) (15.6) (12.8) (25.4) (120.9) 30.5EV/Sales (x) 5.67 5.65 2.76 1.88 2.17 2.00 1.69Price/Book value 7.25 5.45 3.25 3.16 5.08 5.52 4.95Price/adjusted equity 7.25 5.45 3.25 3.16 5.08 5.52 4.95

Free cash flow/Market cap (%) (0.8) (1.1) (6.4) (9.0) (6.4) (3.8) (0.1)Operating cash flow/EV (%) 1.5 1.2 (1.2) (0.5) 2.1 4.9 8.9EV/Capital employed (x) 5.8 4.3 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.2

Main shareholders Management Company informationName (%) Votes Capital Title Name ContactSwedbank Robur Fonder 9.3 9.3 COB Kent Sander Internet www.tobii.comHenrik Eskilsson 6.3 6.3 CEO Henrik Eskilsson Phone number +46 8 663 69 90 Handelsbanken Fonder 5.8 5.8 CFO Johan Wilsby

IR Ola Elmeland

Source for all data on this page: SEB

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About this publication This report is a marketing communication commissioned by Tobii and prepared by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ). It does not constitute investment research; as such, it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements to promote the independence of investment research, nor is it subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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Use This material has been prepared by SEB for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is being provided to you without regard to your investment objectives or circumstances. The document does not constitute an invitation or solicitation of an offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis for any contract or commitment whatsoever. Opinions contained in the report represent the authors' present opinion only and may be subject to change. In the event that the authors' opinion should change, we shall endeavour (but do not undertake) to disseminate any such change, within the constraints of any regulations, applicable laws, internal procedures within SEB, or other circumstances.

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Company specific disclosures and potential conflicts of interest A member of, or an entity associated with, SEB or its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or shareholders of such members (a) is not, and has never been, represented on the board of directors or similar supervisory entity of Tobii, (b) has from time to time bought or sold the securities issued by the company or options relating to the company, and (c) SEB does not hold any short / long position exceeding 0.5% of the total issued share capital of Tobii as of 31 Aug 2019. The analyst(s) responsible for this research report (jointly with their closely related persons) hold(s) 0 shares in Tobii and do(es) not have holdings in other instruments related to the company.

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