TOA PAINT (THAILAND) PUBLIC COMPANY...

29
December 12, 2017 OPPORTUNITY DAY Q3/2017 TOA PAINT (THAILAND) PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED

Transcript of TOA PAINT (THAILAND) PUBLIC COMPANY...

December 12, 2017

OPPORTUNITY DAY Q3/2017

TOA PAINT (THAILAND) PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED

1

IMPORTANT: You must read the following before continuing. The following applies to this document, the oral presentation of the information in this document by TOA Paint (Thailand) Public Company Limited (the “Company”) or any person on behalf of the Company, and any question-and-answer session that follows the oral presentation (collectively, the “Information”). In accessing the Information, you agree to be bound by the following terms and conditions, you represent that you are outside the United States, and if applicable, you consent to delivery of the attached document by electronic transmission.

The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your reference.

This presentation contains “forward-looking statements”, which are based on current expectations and projections about future events, and include all statements other than statements of historical facts, including, without limitation, any statements preceded by, followed by or that include the words “targets”, “believes”, “expects”, “aims”, “intends”, “will”, “may”, “anticipates”, “would”, “plans”, “could”, “should”, “predicts”, “projects”, “estimates”, “foresees”, “seek” or similar expressions or the negative thereof, as well as predictions, projections and forecasts of the economy or economic trends of the markets and the Company’s industry, which are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the Company or its industry, and projections and forecasts of their performance, which are not guaranteed. Such forward-looking statements, as well as those included in any other material discussed at the oral presentation or in this document, concern future circumstances and results and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors beyond the Company’s control that could cause its actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions and estimates regarding the Company’s present and future business strategies and the environment in which it will operate in the future. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this document, and the Company does not undertakes any obligation or undertakes to supplement, amend, update or revise any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or to reflect future events or circumstances, or otherwise.

The Company makes no representation, warranty or prediction that the results anticipated by such forward-looking statements will be achieved, and such forward-looking statements represent, in each case, only one if many possible scenarios and should not be viewed as the most likely or standard scenario. No assurance given that future events will occur or our assumptions are correct. Actual results may materially differ from those provided in the forward-looking statements and indications of past performance are not indications of future performance. In no event shall the Company be responsible or liable for the correctness of any such material or for any damage or lost opportunities resulting from use of this material. The Company makes no representation whatsoever about the opinion or statements of any analyst or other third party. The Company does not monitor or control the content of third party opinions or statements and does not endorse or accept any responsibility for the content or use of any such opinion or statement.

The Information contains certain non-GAAP measures, including EBITDA, that are not audited, not included in the Company’s audited financial statements and not presented in accordance with Thai Financial Reporting Standards. The measures have been used by management as a supplemental measure of the Company’s performance. Although these measures are either contained in or fully reconcilable to line items on the Company’s audited financial statements and/or based on management accounts, they may not be equivalent to similarly named measures used by other companies, and should not be considered as a measure comparable to income statement items for the relevant period in the financial statements.

The information set out herein is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, has not been independently verified and it may not contain all material information concerning the Company.

The Information also contains certain statistical data and analyses (the “Statistical Information”) which have been prepared in reliance upon information furnished by the Company and/or third party sources for which the Company has either obtained or is in the process of obtaining the necessary consents for use. Numerous assumptions were used in preparing the Statistical Information, which assumptions may or may not appear herein. As such, no assurance can be given as to the Statistical Information’s accuracy, appropriateness or completeness in any particular context, nor as to whether the Statistical Information and/or the assumptions upon which they are based reflect present market conditions or future market performance. Moreover, any information from third party sources contained in the Information may not be used or relied upon by any other party, or for any other purpose, and may not, directly or indirectly, be reproduced, disseminated or quoted without the prior written consent of such third party. The Information does not purport to be a complete description of the terms of or the risks inherent in any actual or proposed transaction described herein.

The Company’s securities have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the securities laws of any state of the United States, and may not be offered or sold within the United States, except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of such act or such laws.

This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the Company’s securities in any jurisdiction.

DISCLAIMER

AGENDA OUTLINE

2

INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 3

FINANCIAL SUMMARY 1

MARKET OVERVIEW 1

MARKET OVERVIEW

OUR BUSINESS

Geographical reach in AECProduct segments Distribution channels

Source: Company information

4

Breakdown of revenue by product segments, 9M2017

Breakdown of revenue by geography, 9M2017

Breakdown of revenue by distribution channel, 9M2017

9M2017 revenue: THB11.5bn

ThailandTHB10.1bn

87.7%

VietnamTHB0.8bn

7.0%

OthersTHB0.6bn

5.3%

Retail dealersTHB8.4bn

73.3%

Modern trade

THB1.7bn15.1%

OthersTHB1.4bn

11.6%

DecorativeTHB7.8bn

68.3%

Non-decorativeTHB3.2bn

28.1%

OthersTHB0.5bn

3.6%

Retail dealer sales is the dominant distribution channel, derived mainly from Bangkok and nearby vicinity

Low population density

Supply chain and logistic challenges

Retail dealer preference for established brands

Rise of modern trade distribution

Key industry trends and challenges

Sources: Frost & Sullivan, Company information, Department of Provincial Administration, The Ministry of Interior (March 31, 2017)Notes:1 As at September 30, 2017 in Thailand2 Out of 77 provinces and 790 districts in Thailand

UNPARALLELED NATIONWIDE DISTRIBUTION AND RETAIL DEALER NETWORK…

ComparativeAdvantage

Maximum product reach to end users

Strong retail-dealer resistance to non-

TOA brands

Strong brand awareness and fierce

customer loyalty

Ability to respond to consumer trends

TOA has a comparative advantage with its extensive distribution coverage coupled with unique Auto Tinting Machines

1

3

4

5

Extensive coverage

6,367retail dealers1

77 provinces1,2

790 districts1,2

Technology

SAPERP and Business

Intelligence systems

Unique TOA Auto Tinting

Machines

4,1911

2

5

TOA's response

Productconsultants

In-store and

modern trade

3,5054,006 4,191

1,442

1,6871,775

2014 2016 9M17

Thailand Other AEC markets

5,6935,966

REINFORCED BY OUR UNIQUE TOA COLOR WORLD SOLUTION SERVICES

No. of Auto Tinting Machines

6

Source: Company information

>10,000 different shade

variations

Premiumisation

Enhanced customisation

Reduced inventory

carrying costs

Increasing usage of our Auto Tinting Machines by retail dealers and modern trade distributors…

4,947

FINANCIALSUMMARY

Thailand87.7%

Vietnam7.0%

Others3

5.3%16,449 16,753

16,297

3,848 3,740

12,18911,458

2014 2015 2016 9M2016 9M2017

Year 3Q 9M

KEY FINANCIAL METRICS

Sales (THBm)

8

Source: Company informationNotes:1 Carve-out Financial Statements2 Statutory Financial Statements3 Other countries mainly comprise sales revenue from customers in Laos, Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar and Cambodia4 Other products sold to the Divested companies and related companies e.g. raw materials

Increasing diversification in all aspects of geography and products

Geogra

phy

Pro

duct

2014 9M172014-2016

CAGR

-

Thailand(1.7%)

Vietnam10.8%

Others7.5%

Decorative0.1%

Non-decorative

1.6%

Other business products(21.3%)

2016

Thailand89.3%

Vietnam6.6%

Others3

4.1%

Thailand87.0%

Vietnam8.2%

Others3

4.8%

Decorative68.8%

Non-decorative26.2%

Other business products4

5.0%

Decorative69.5%

Non-decorative27.4%

Other business products4

3.1%

Decorative68.3%

Non-decorative28.1%

Other business products4

3.6%

1.8% (2.7%)

(2.8%)

(6.0%)

YoY growth (%)

1 1 1 2 2

4,976

5,9796,203

4,696

3,922

1,4481,225

30.3%

35.7%38.1%

38.5%34.2%

37.6%

32.7%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2014 2015 2016 9M2016 9M2017 3Q2016 3Q2017

Gross profit Margin

KEY FINANCIAL METRICS

9

Gross profit (THBm) and margin (%)

Source: Company informationNotes:1 Carve-out Financial Statements2 Statutory Financial Statements

We have shown strong profitable growth over the past few years driven by our strong brand and products. In 9M2017, margins decreased as a result of higher average raw materials prices

(15.4 %)20.2% 3.7% (16.5%)

YoY growth (%)

1 2 22211

KEY FINANCIAL METRICS

10

EBITDA (THBm) and margin (%)

Source: Company informationNotes:1 Carve-out Financial Statements2 Statutory Financial Statements

2,216

3,190

3,559

2,795

1,852

827

53113.2%18.7%

21.5%

22.6%

16.1%21.1%

14.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2014 2015 2016 9M2016 9M2017 3Q2016 3Q2017

EBITDA Margin

(33.7%) (35.8%)44.0% 11.6%

YoY growth (%)

We have shown strong profitable growth over the past few years driven by our strong brand and products. In 9M2017, margins decreased as a result of higher average raw materials prices

21 1 1 22 2

KEY FINANCIAL METRICS

11

Source: Company informationNotes:1 Carve-out Financial Statements2 Statutory Financial Statements

Net profit (THBm) and margin (%)

1,321

2,117

2,507

1,993

1,237

585

3437.9%

12.4%15.2%

16.1%

10.7%14.9%

9.1%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2014 2015 2016 9M2016 9M2017 3Q2016 3Q2017

Net profit Margin

2 2 2 21 1 1

YoY growth (%)

(37.9%) (41.4%)60.3% 18.4%

We have shown strong profitable growth over the past few years driven by our strong brand and products. In 9M2017, margins decreased as a result of higher average raw materials prices

KEY FINANCIAL METRICS (CONT'D)

12

We have demonstrated exceptional return on asset and equity given our strong business fundamentals

Return on equity3 (%)

Source: Company informationNotes:1 Carve-out Financial Statements2 Statutory Financial Statements3 Return on equity is calculated as net profit divided by average shareholders’ equity. Average shareholders’ equity is calculated by averaging the

opening and closing balance sheet figures4 Return on total assets is calculated as net profit divided by average total assets. Average total assets is calculated by averaging the opening and

closing balance sheet figures.5 Ratios are calculated using annualized net profit

10.5%

16.5%

22.2%

17.1%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2014 2015 2016 9M2017

35.4%

50.9%

93.4%

118.7%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

2014 2015 2016 9M2017

Return on total assets4 (%)

1 11 2,5 2,51 1 1

CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

13

Source: Company information

(THBm)

459

245

435

214 241

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2014 2015 2016 9M2016 9M2017

14

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

• 9M2017 sales revenue declined 6.0% y-o-y due to a decrease in sales of decorative paint products from reduced volumes of medium to economy grade products and non-decorative paint and coating products as a result of the economic slowdown continuing from 2016 and one-off Vietnam VAT registration requirements during the first quarter of 2017

• EBITDA margins decreased from 22.6% in 9M2016 to 16.1% in 9M2017 as a result of a decrease in sales revenue, as well as the increase in raw material costs. We continue to monitor the situation and are considering passing increased raw materials cost to customers

• TOA continues to deliver superior ROE and ROA of 118.7% and 17.1% in 9M2017, with robust balance sheet position

• Cash & cash equivalent of 1,437.3 MB as at September 30, 2017, compared to 1,713.4 MB at the end of 2016. As at September 30, 2017, total assets has not materially changed

• Total liabilities of 7,701.4 MB as at September 30, 2017, a decrease of 1,165 MB was mainly attributable to the decrease in dividend payables, long-term loans from financial institutions, and income tax payables

1

2

3

4

5

INDUSTRYOUTLOOK

OUTLOOK OF THAI ECONOMY AND CONSTRUCTION MARKET

16

11,30012,349 12,901 13,132

13,537 14,106 14,86115,597

16,408 17,295 18,2654.6%

9.3%

4.5%

1.8%

3.1%

4.2%

5.4%5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Nominal GDP (THBbn) YoY growth

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Economy impacted by two natural disasters – strong Tohoku earthquake disrupted the supply chains of Thai-based Japanese manufacturers in March and severe flooding in second half of the year resulted in over THB400bn losses

Increase in public spending, household

consumption and investments drove the

rise in GDP

Political and social unrest dampened public spending and household consumption growth rates

Social unrest followed by military intervention

adversely impacted the inflow of investments, state

spending and tourism

Public spending and tax cuts stimulated growth albeit the droughts caused by El-Nino

Brexit, US withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership and the passing of Thailand's monarch contributed to volatility, but was alleviated by improved economic performance

Reducedincome taxes

Highertourist arrivals

Greaterprivate consumption

Increasedpublic investments

While recent GDP growth has been impacted by domestic and international political uncertainty, a recovery in the economy and construction market is expected from a number of positives

Shrinking household sizes

Thailand’s economy and construction market is underpinned by strong fundamentals with socio-economic factors providing tremendous opportunity for growth in the paints and coatings industry

34.4% 37.9% 39.4%

66.5%

42.5% 41.9% 41.7%

26.5%21.2% 19.1% 17.8%

6.6%1.9% 1.1% 1.1%0.4%

2009 2011 2013 2015

1–2 persons 3–4 persons 5–7 persons 8 persons or more

Distribution of households by size

OVERVIEW OF THAI ECONOMY AND CONSTRUCTION MARKET

Increasing urbanisation

167 182 189191

197 204215 225

237 250 263

3.8%

3.0%2.2% 1.9%

(0.9%)0.3%

1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

GDP per capita (THB '000) Inflation

Rising GDP per capita and stable inflation

Source: Frost & Sullivan

22.3(20.6%)

25.2(21.0%)

28.6(21.7%)

1517192123252729

2011 2016 2021F

Number of households (m) / % urban households

17

Relative to more developed markets, Thailand and other AEC countries have significantly lower per capita consumption of paints and coatings, demonstrating substantial upside potential

LARGE POTENTIAL IN INCREASING PAINT CONSUMPTION

Source: Frost & Sullivan

20.0

15.0

10.5 10.0

9.0 8.0

6.0

3.0

1.5 1.5 1.0

Norway Singapore Japan USA Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Cambodia Laos Myanmar

APAC developed country average: 9.7

APAC overall average: 4.7

AEC

Per capita paints and coatings consumption, litres, 2016

18

Retail decorative paints and coatings market size and forecast

19

THAI DECORATIVE PAINTS AND COATINGS MARKETOVERVIEW

Retail TOA's predominant channel in Thailand

Sale of products through retail dealers nationwide

Modern trade

Main distribution channel of foreign manufacturers

Occurs through large chain stores such as Homeworks, HomePro and Thai Watsadu

Catalyzes retail consumers' awareness and participation in the painting process

Projects &

exports

Large-scale projects for the government, property developers, and real estate companies

Wholesale export globally

Dominated by TOA1

Most other players inclined towards industrial paints and coatings manufacturing13.7

19.2

24.6

2011 2016 2021F

(THBbn)

48.7%

Akzo Nobel13.8%

Beger13.3%

Jotun8.1%

Nippon5.2%

Others10.9%

Source: Frost & SullivanNote:1 According to Frost & Sullivan by market share for year 2016

Market's promising growth underpinned by favourable socio-economic factors. Competitive landscape dominated by top player TOA

Competitive landscape

Channels

Shifttowards premium decorative paints and coatings

Shorterrepainting cycles

Increasedhousing stock

Retail non-decorative paints and coatings market size and forecast

20

THAI NON-DECORATIVE PAINTS AND COATINGS MARKETOVERVIEW

has a sizeable presence and is trailing the market leaders marginally across all non-decorative paints and coatings segments

Wood

3.03.9

5.2

0.8

1.0

1.4

1.0

1.5

2.2

2011 2016 2021FWood Coatings Waterproofing Protective Coating

(THBbn)

Direct sales to Original Equipment Manufacturers ("OEM"), such as furniture and construction material manufacturers, is the most prevalent distribution method2

TOA does not distribute its products through this channel

Procured directly from manufacturers by contractors and developers

OEM

Projects

Retail and modern trade

Main distribution channel for TOA's non-decorative products

Less prevalent compared to other distribution channels

Beger32.8%

28.2%

Others39.0% Sika

28.0%

20.0%

ParexGroup10.0%

Others42.0%

Jotun30.0%

28.0%

Others42.0%

Waterproofing Protective coating

Source: Company information, Frost & SullivanNote:1 According to Frost & Sullivan for year 20162 TOA does not distribute its products through this channel

Channels

Growth in the non-decorative paints and coatings market is expected to accelerate from increased consumption, industrialisation and tourism

Competitive landscape1

Increasedconsumer awareness about housing structure protection

IncreasedRenovation and repainting activities

IncreasedFDI inflows from industralisation

Oseven45.0%

8.0%

Akzo Nobel10.0%

Others22.0%

Adora15.0%

0.81.2

1.7

2011 2016 2021F

0.2 0.20.3

2011 2016 2021F

1.0 1.31.9

2011 2016 2021F

OTHER AEC MARKETS OVERVIEW — VIETNAMReta

il m

ark

et

size

and

fore

cast

1Com

petitive landsc

ape

2Channels Retail sales are approximately 50.0%-60.0% of total decorative paints and coatings sales

Highest sales of 15.0%-20.0% through the retail channel

Retail channel accounts for 10.0%-20.0% of total waterproofing sales

Limited presence of retail dealers

95.0% of sales are project sales through channel partners

Sources: Frost & Sullivan, Bloomberg as at June 26, 2017Notes: 1. Illustrative figures based on USDVND exchange rate of 1:22,730 and USDTHB exchange rate of 1:33.980 as at June 26, 2017

2. According to Frost & Sullivan for year 2016

21

6.3 9.715.6

2011 2016 2021F

(THBbn)Wood Waterproofing Protective coating

4 Oranges23.0%

Akzo Nobel18.0%

9.8%Nippon9.0%

Jotun8.0%

Others32.2%

Kova49.0%

Akzo Nobel10.0%

Jotun10.0%

6.0%

Others25.0%

Jotun50.0%

Akzo Nobel40.0%

Hai Phong5.0%

Others5.0%

Vietnam's fast developing economy is expected to drive its paints and coatings industry, underpinned by increasing consumer spending, a growing construction sector, furniture export and public spending

-Decorative Non-decorative

Increasedconstruction activity

Increasedwood furniture manufacturing activity

Increasedhousing constructions and development

(THBbn)

0.81.2

1.6

2011 2016 2021F

0.8 1.01.3

2011 2016 2021F

0.5 0.6 0.7

2011 2016 2021F

9.512.1

15.6

2011 2016 2021F

18.826.7

41.0

2011 2016 2021F

OTHER AEC MARKETS OVERVIEWR

eta

il m

ark

et

size

and f

ore

cast

2Com

petitive

landsc

ape

Sources: Frost & Sullivan, Bloomberg as at June 26, 2017Notes:1 Comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos2 Illustrative figures based on USDTHB exchange rate of 1:33.980 as at June 26, 2017

22

(THBbn)

The combined retail decorative paint and coating market of TOA's other AEC markets1 is expected to grow by a 5-year CAGR of 7.7%, driven by increasing urbanisation, economic reforms, infrastructure spending and rising disposable income

Indonesia MalaysiaMyanmar Cambodia Laos

(THBbn)(THBbn) (THBbn) (THBbn)

Increasedurbanisation

Increaseddisposable income

Growingconstruction sector

Increasedpolitical instability

Reducedspeed in developing commercial property

Increasedrural household income

Increasedimport taxation

Increasedconstruction activity

Pro

duct

ion

pla

nts 1

under construction

1operational

1under

construction

1COD in Q3

2017

1under

construction

1operational

1operational

23

FUTURE PROJECTS

Country Location Ownership Estimated CAPEX

(THBm)Objectives

Expected start construction

Estimatedcompletion

Indonesia Kawasan Industri Millenium,Kabupaten Tangerang, PropinsiBanten

Freehold 670.0 Production plant Q2 2017 Q2 2018

Myanmar Thilawa Special Economic Zone Leasehold right (until Jun 4, 2064with option to extend another 25 years)

312.0 Production plant(Relocate from existing Yangon Plant)

Q3 2017 Q3 2018

Cambodia Phnom Penh Special EconomicZone

Leasehold right (until December 8, 2067 with option to extend another50 years)

254.1 Production plant Q1 2018 Q4 2018

Total 1,236.1

MyanmarTo be operated by TOA Coating (Myanmar) Co., Ltd.

Cambodia

IndonesiaTo be operated by PT TOA Coating Indonesia

1

Source: Company informationNote:1 According to the resolution of the Board of Directors’ meeting No.9/2017 held on December 4, 2017

24

FUTURE PROJECTS (CONT’D)

IndonesiaTo be operated by PT TOA Coating Indonesia

Distance

Est. 50 KMs from TOA Factory (Millennium Estate) to TOA Office (Jakarta)

Travel time around 75 min.

Est. 30 KMs from Millennium Estate to Airport

Travel time around 45 min.

Source: Company information

Capacity

7.7 m Gallons

Estimated Capex

670.0 THBm

Estimated Completion

Q2 2018

25

FUTURE PROJECTS (CONT’D)

Source: Company information

Capacity

4.0 m Gallons

Estimated Capex

312.0 THBm

Estimated Completion

Q3 2018

MyanmarTo be operated by TOA Coating (Myanmar) Co., Ltd.

Distance

Est. 35 KMs from TOA Factory (Thilawa estate) to TOA Office (Yangon)

Travel time around 1 hour

Est. 45 KMs from Thilawa estate to Airport

Travel time around 1.30 hours

26

FUTURE PROJECTS (CONT’D)

Capacity

3.4 m Gallons

Estimated Capex

254.1 THBm1

Estimated Completion

Q4 2018

Cambodia

Distance

Est. 18 KMs from TOA Factory (PPSEZ estate) to Phnom Penh City

Travel time around 1 hour

Est. 10 KMs from TOA Factory (PPSEZ estate) to Airport

Travel time around 30 min.

Est. 5 KMs from TOA Factory (PPSEZ estate) to TOA Office (Phnom Penh)

Travel time around 15 min.

Source: Company informationNote:1 According to the resolution of the Board of Directors’ meeting No.9/2017 held on December 4, 2017

27

Source: Company informationNote:1 Excludes production capacity of TOA Skim Coat (Cambodia) Co., Ltd.2 Relocate from Yangon to Thilawa Special Economic Zone 3 Total production capacity post taking into account the planned shutdown of existing Yangon Plant

FUTURE PROJECTS (CONT’D)

3

Total production capacity1

Million Gallons per year

Million Gallons per year

New production plantin Indonesia

New production plantin Myanmar2

New production plantin Cambodia

Q & A