TIWANA WALTONMENTOR: SHARON MONICA JONES

High Level Aviation Safety Risk Assessment

Outline

AbstractBackgroundAviation Risk AssessmentResearch Approach

Abstract

Prior methods for calculating aviation safety risk assessments were labor intensive. The purpose of this research is to find an alternative method for conducting aviation safety risk analysis in support of the portfolio assessment for Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project within the NASA Aviation Safety (AvSafe) Program. A literature search is being conducted to find high level technology aviation risk assessment methodologies and structured data collection methods for use with subject matter experts. As a result of the literature search, strong consideration has been placed on applying the Delphi Method to conduct future aviation safety analysis using risk matrices and decision support software.

Background

NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate Aviation Safety Program (AvSafe) Airspace Systems Program Fundamental Aeronautics Program Aeronautics Test Program

Aviation Safety Program Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM)

Project Integrated Intelligent Flight Deck (IIFD) Project Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC)

Project Aircraft Aging and Durability (AAD) Project

Background (cont’d)

IRAC Milestone 4.2.4 Assess IRAC portfolio by mapping IRAC research

to the potential loss of control scenarios. Identify overlooked safety issues involved in loss of control events. http://www.aeronautics.nasa.gov/nra_pdf/irac_tech_plan_c1.pdf

Five metrics within this milestone: Technical development risk Implementation risk Fatal accident rate Safety benefit/costs Projected impact of safety risk

Aviation Safety Risk Assessment

Previous Methods Used Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN’s) Logic Evolved Decision (LED)

Problems with Prior Methods Labor intensive Relies on historic data

Ideal Characteristics of Risk Assessment Methods

Short model development timeSmaller resource requirements (i.e., people,

money)Ability to model several technologies in R&D

portfolioSmaller data requirements/less

computational intensive => high level qualitative assessment methodology

Research Approach

Literature SearchList of Candidate MethodsReview Candidate Methods Against Ideal

CharacteristicsFinal Recommendations/Conclusions

Literature Search

Literature Search Conducted Compendex IEEE Explorer NASA library catalog

Literature Search was limited to materials within last 20 years Included conference and journal papers Also included text books

Candidate Methods

FAA Risk MatrixDelphi MethodDoD Risk MatrixFault Logic DiagramDecision Trees

FAA Risk Matrix

SBN Risk Matrix Definitions

Likelihood:

Frequently Occurs once every week

Probable Occurs once every month

Remote Occurs once every 5 years

Extremely Remote Occurs once every 10 years

Extremely Improbable Occurs once every 20 years

Severity:

Catastrophic Loss of aircraft aircraft, life and/or damage in excess of $1,000,000

Hazardous Severe injury or damage in excess of $100,000 and/or disruption of critical

services (NAVAIDS, etc.)

Major Significant (but repairable) damage to an aircraft, equipment or Significant aircraft, facility and/or minor injury

Minor Minor damage to equipment or facilities

No Safety Effect No injury, equipment or facility damage is possible

Future Work

Continue reviewing candidates against criteria

Make final recommendations about risk assessment method for IRAC portfolio analysis

Work with IRAC Systems Analysis Team to implement risk assessment methodology against IRAC list of technologies