Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

Centro de Pesquisas de Energia Elétrica -

CEPEL

Autor/apresentador

Área

Título do trabalho

The Role of Hydropower in the

Brazilian Electrical Energy

System Expansion

Workshop “Promoting Flexible

Use of Hydropower”

Hotel New Otani, Tokyo, Japan

4th February 2013

Jorge Machado Damazio DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OPTIMIZATION AND ENVIRONMENT

ELECTRIC ENERGY RESEARCH CENTER

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

Principles and Objectives of the Brazilian

Energy Policy

Security of Supply

Tariff moderateness

Universal Access

Respect to Existent Contracts

Strengthening of the Planning

Matrix Diversification: Renewable Energy

National Integration

National Technological Development

Compromise with Socioenvironmental Issues

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

3

Energy Planning

National Energy Plan

National Energy Matrix

Decennial Energy Expansion

Plan

Auctions

Monitoring

1 to 3 years visions

Programming Vision

Median and Short Term Studies (up to 10 years)

Strategic Vision

Long Term Studies (up to 30 years)

Oil and Gas Electrical Energy

Transmission

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

4 Growth of Domestic Supply of Energy and Gross Domestic Product(%)

Events 1999-2009 (reduction of the energy intensity):

Electricity Supply Crises 2000/2002 (more rationality and efficiency)

Global Crises 2008 (strong reduction in the production of energy intensity products)

Relatively more exportation of products with less electric energy

(more alumina and less aluminum; more iron ore and less steel; etc)

Lighter weight and more efficient vehicles

Events 2009-2019 (increase of the energy intensity):

World Cup 2014, Olympic Games 2016, exploration of the pre-salt

Strong increase in the production of steel, cellulose, cement and energy sectors

3,31%

4,70%

2,56%

5,84%

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

1999 - -2009 2009 - 2019

GDP

ENERGY

Sources: IBGE, 2008 and PDE 2019

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

Final Energy Consumption: International Comparison

Per capita

(toe/inhab)

1,8

4,4 4,6

11,0

19,1

Brasil Mundo China OCDE EUA

Source: IEA Database (2010)

5

World USA Brazil

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

Macroeconomics Parameters

Parameter 2009 2019 % per

year

GDP (109 R$) 3.143 4.966 4,7

Population (106) 191 207 0,8

GDP per capita (R$/inhab) 16.416 24.042 3,9

Domestic Supply of Energy per capita (toe/inhab) 1,274 2,081 5,0

Domestic Supply of Energy per GDP (toe/103 R$) 0,078 0,087 1,1

Final Electricity Consumption per capita (kWh/inhab) 2.231 3.441 4,4

Source: PDE 2019

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

7 Domestic Supply and Consumption of Energy (106 tep)

62

240

544

112

244

430

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1979 2009 2019

PRODUÇÃO DEMANDA

déficit

45%

maximum from 1970 to 2009

deficit

5%

Superavit

23%

déficit

45%

maximum from 1970 to 2009

deficit

5%

Superavit

23%

déficit

45%

maximum from 1970 to 2009

Superavit

23%

deficit

45%

am from 1970 to 2009

Superavit

23%

DSE CONSUMPTION

Surplus

23%

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

Energy Domestic Supply Matrix (%)

Source: PDE 2020

37.7

10.3

5.2

1.4

14.1

9.5

17.7

4.0

30.3

14.4

6.1

1.4

12.5

8.3

21.8

5.1

PETRÓLEO GÁS NATURAL

CARVÃO MINERAL

NUCLEAR HIDRÁULICA LENHA E C.VEGETAL

PRODUTOS DA CANA

OUTRAS

2010 2020

2010 106 toe: 267,4

% renewable: 45,3

2020 106 toe: 439,7

% renewable: 47,7

Energy (103 toe)

World 2008: 12.267 → Brazil 2009: 2,0%

World 2020: 14.882 → Brazil 2020: 2,9%

OIL NATURAL GAS

FUELWOOD CHARCOAL

MINERAL COAL

HYDRAULIC SUGARCANE PRODUCTS

OTHERS

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

HYDROPOWER in BRAZIL 9

Hydroelectric energy is the

main energy source in Brazil

for electricity

The Total Potential to be

explored is estimated as 260

GW,

only 30% is in operation

Brazil Potential: 261,3 GW

Operation: 30,9%

North

8,2% of 109,7 GW Northeast

41.8% of

26,3 GW

Southeast/Center-

West

45,6% of 82,2 GW

South

53,9% de

43,1 GW

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

10 BRAZILIAN WIND POTENTIAL

Expected 300 GW 143 GW

272.2 TWh/year

Height 50m– Turbines of 0,5 MW Height 100m – Turbines of 2 MW

Source: CRESESB/CEPEL, 2001.

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

11 Other Options for the Electrical Matrix

Bioenergy

Nuclear Energy

Sixtieth uranium reserve of the world. (309,000 tons proved

and 800,000 ton probable)

Nuclear Energy promises a strong expansion after 2030 (55

GW up to 2050).

Low emission and secure supply

A large bioenergy program

Biomass in the range of 500 MW / year, which means more

than 6.000 MW up to 2016

Efficiency A large potential of energy savings: 10%

PROCEL

PNEf – National Program of Energetic Efficiency

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

ELECTRICAL MATRIX (%)

74.3

2.7 5.7

1.3 2.7 1.5 5.1

0.4

6.3

69.0

2.8 4.6 2.3 1.0 1.6

10.0

4.3 4.4

2010 2020

2010 544,9 TWh

86,2%

remewable

2020 867,3 TWh

87,7%

renewable

Source: PDE 2020

MINERAL COAL

NATURAL GAS

NUCLEAR HYDRO INDUSTRIAL GAS

BIOMASS WIND IMPORTATION OIL

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

Hydropower Inventory Studies

Source: ANEEL and PAC 2011

MAIN STUDIES

Approved by

ANEEL

1 Tapajós/Jamanxim: 14.245 MW (7 projects)

2 Teles Pires/ Apiacás: 3.697 MW (5 projects)

Concluded

Hydrograph Basin MW UF

Araguaia 3.100 GO / MT / PA / TO

Jari 1.100 AP / PA

Juruena 5.000 AM / MT

Branco 2.000 RR

Tibagi 1.291,5 PR

Running

Studies (PAC)

Hydrograph Basin MW UF

8 Aripuanã 3.000 AM / MT / RO

9 Sucunduri 650 AM

10 Trombetas 3.000 PA

Total 19.141,5

3 5

1 9

4

10

8 2

6

7

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

Hydroelectric Expansion

Project River MW UF Operatipm

Operation between 2014 and 2019

a Belo Monte Xingu 11,233 PA 2015 f Teles Pires Teles Pires 1,820 MT 2015

Outras (10 UHEs) vários 1,716 vários 2014/19

Subtotal 14,769

Future auctions: Operation between 2015 and 2019

2 Foz do Apiacás Apiacás 275 MT 2015 2 São Manoel Teles Pires 746 MT / PA 2015 2 Sinop Teles Pires 461 MT 2015

1 São Luiz do Tapajós Tapajós 6,133 PA 2016

b São Roque Canoas 214 RS 2017 c Marabá Tocantins 2,160 PA 2018 d Itapiranga Uruguai 725 RS / SC 2018 e Serra Quebrada Tocantins 1,328 TO 2018 3 Torixoréu Araguaia 408 PA 2019 1 Jatobá Tapajós 2,336 PA 2019 1 Jardim do Ouro Jamanxim 227 PA 2019

1 Cachoeira dos Patos Jamanxim 528 PA 2019

1 Jamanxim Jamanxim 881 PA 2019 1 Cachoeira do Caí Jamanxim 802 PA 2019 Others vários 1,391 vários 2015/19 Subtotal of future auctions 18,615

Total 33,384 2014/19

3 8

1

4 9

6

5

1

0 7 c

e

d

b

a

2

Fonte: PDE 2019, MME (atualizado 01.03.2011)

f

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

Transmission Lines Expansion

g

f

1 2

3

5

4

b 2

a

e

c d

Project State km Conclusion

1 InterconnectionTapajós – SE PA, MT, GO and SP 4.400 2017

2 Interconnection N-NE e N-SE PA, TO, MA, PI, CE, PE

and BA 8.350 2016

3 Interconnection Teles Pires - SE MT, GO and SP 4.500 2015

4 Interconnection Manaus - Boa

Vista AM and RR 750 2014

5 Reinforcements in SouthEast

Region 500 kV Transmission

Lines MG, SP, RJ, MT and GO 5.350 2015

(a) Manaus, (b) Belo Monte, (c) AC/RO, (d) Tapajós, (e) Teles Pires, (f) Itaipu, (g) Boa

Vista

Source: PDE 2020, MME

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

Implemented in areas with low or no anthropogenic activity

Reconciliation between electricity generation and environment

Keep the impact restricted to the plant site

Recuperation of the affected area during the construction phase

Operation with small number of staff in turn-over labor periods

“Platform” Hydropower Plants”

16

Construction Completion Forest is Recovered

Natural Area

Construction phase

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

Source: Eletrobras (2009), PAC 2

Hydrograph Basin HPs Installed

Capacity[MW]

Tapajós River 7 14.245

Araguaia River

(Mortes River) 2 396

Madeira River (Ji-

Paraná River) 1 350

Juruena River 3 5.162*

TOTAL 13 20.153

Inundation Index: Tapajos Complex– 0,21

km2/MW

Actual Index – 0,49 km2/MW

17

* Feasibility

For each km² of

intervention, 101

km² preserved

“Platform” Hydropower Plants”

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

AND AFTER 2030 18

Brazil Potential: 261,3 GW

Operation: 30,9%

North

8,2% of 109,7 GW Northeast

41.8% of

26,3 GW

Souteast/Center-West

45,6% of 82,2 GW

South

53,9% de

43,1 GW

By 2030 the Brazilian Hydropower Potential will be almost completely developed

Long term studies indicate that the country will nedd thermal plants (conventional and nuclear) supplying the base load

Workshop Promoting Flexible Use of Hydropower | Tokyo, JAPAN - FEB/2013

OBRIGADO!