Title of presentation - National Grid/media/Files/N/National-Grid-IR-V… · Prior period numbers...
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2013/14
Half year results
London | Thursday 21 November 2013
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This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information. These statements are
forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These statements include information with respect to National Grid’s financial condition, its results of
operations and businesses, strategy, plans and objectives. Words such as ‘anticipates’, ‘expects’, ‘should’, ‘intends’, ‘plans’, ‘believes’, ‘outlook’,
‘seeks’, ‘estimates’, ‘targets’, ‘may’, ‘will’, ‘continue’, ‘project’ and similar expressions, as well as statements in the future tense, identify forward-
looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of National Grid’s future performance and are subject to assumptions,
risks and uncertainties that could cause actual future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking
statements. Many of these assumptions, risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond National Grid’s ability to control or estimate
precisely, such as changes in laws or regulations, presentations from and decisions by governmental bodies or regulators (including the
timeliness of consents for construction projects); the timing of construction and delivery by third parties of new generation projects requiring
connection, breaches of, or changes in, environmental, climate change and health and safety laws or regulations, including breaches arising
from the potentially harmful nature of its activities; network failure or interruption (and National Grid’s actual or perceived response thereto), the
inability to carry out critical non network operations and damage to infrastructure, due to adverse weather conditions including the impact major
storms as well as the results of climate change or due to unauthorised access to or deliberate breaches of National Grid’s IT systems or
otherwise; performance against regulatory targets and standards and against National Grid’s peers with the aim of delivering stakeholder
expectations regarding costs and efficiency savings, including those related to investment programmes and internal transformation projects
(including the US financial system and process implementation); and customers and counterparties failing to perform their obligations to the
Company. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in this presentation include fluctuations in
exchange rates, interest rates and commodity price indices; restrictions and conditions (including filing requirements) in National Grid’s
borrowing and debt arrangements, funding costs and access to financing; regulatory requirements for the Company to maintain financial
resources in certain parts of its business and restrictions on some subsidiaries’ transactions such as paying dividends, lending or levying
charges; inflation; the delayed timing of recoveries and payments in National Grid’s regulated businesses and whether aspects of its activities
are contestable; the funding requirements and performance of National Grid’s pension schemes and other post-retirement benefit schemes; the
loss of key personnel or the ability to attract, train or retain qualified personnel and any significant disputes arising with the National Grid’s
employees or the breach of laws or regulations by its employees; and incorrect or unforeseen assumptions or conclusions (including financial
and tax impacts and other unanticipated effects) relating to business development activity, including assumptions in connection with joint
ventures. For further details regarding these and other assumptions, risks and uncertainties that may affect National Grid, please read the
Strategic Review section and the ‘Risk factors’ on pages 176 to 178 of National Grid’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F as updated by
National Grid’s unaudited half-year financial information for the six months ended 30 September 2013 published on 21 November 2013. In
addition, new factors emerge from time to time and National Grid cannot assess the potential impact of any such factor on its activities or the
extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual future results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-
looking statement. Except as may be required by law or regulation, the Company undertakes no obligation to update any of its forward-looking
statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation.
.
Cautionary statement
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Highlights
2013/14
Half year results
Steve Holliday | Chief Executive
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Agenda
4
Highlights Steve Holliday
Business review Andrew Bonfield
Outlook Steve Holliday
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Solid start to 2013/14
5
Progress towards robust full year out-turn
New rate plans in place
SAP implementation
Elevate 2015 programme
US
Solid first half performance: on track for good full year result
UK Good progress managing against
regulatory targets
Thorough business reorganisation
Benefits of supplier & partner negotiations
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Financial performance
6
£1.6bn
operating profit
£979m
profit
before tax
£761m
earnings
20.4p
earnings
per share
14.49p
dividend
per share
Note: Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries for continuing operations
All numbers include impacts of timing
Interim scrip suspended reflecting high take up in August
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Safety
7
Lost time injury frequency rate refers to the number of lost time injuries per 100,000 hours worked in a 12 month period
UK Significant improvement
in UK
Lost time injury rate
improved to under 0.1
US Performance not yet at
UK levels
Investments in training
and safety initiatives
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£40m
£30m
£26m
Scoping
Tendering
Smart Design
Generating efficiency in the UK
8
Transmission
Headcount reductions
Totex efficiencies
- Alliance arrangements
- Competitive contracting
Efficiencies reduce
consumer bills
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Generating efficiency in the UK
9
Transmission
Headcount reductions
Totex efficiencies
- Alliance arrangements
- Competitive contracting
Efficiencies reduce
consumer bills Efficiencies reduce consumer bills
Gas Distribution
IT investments
Contract renegotiation
Field force reorganisation
Repex strategic partners
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Sept
2013
Sept
2012
UK Elec.Transmission 703 681
UK Gas Transmission 92 130
UK Gas Distribution 248 324
US Regulated 571 575
Other Activities 74 114
Joint ventures - 1
Total 1,688 1,825
£m
Capital investment
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Summary
11
Solid start to the year
Foundations for good overall
performance in the year
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Business Review
2013/14
Half year results
Andrew Bonfield | Finance Director
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Performance measures
Measuring performance requires additional
information produced annually
Added context to IFRS movements
More detailed disclosure at full year
- Regulatory returns
- Regulatory revenue movements and “IOUs”
- Regulated Asset Value
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Higher operating profit, led by increased
regulatory allowances, link to RPI and French
interconnector
Timing over-recovery of £10m
Solid business performance
UK Electricity Transmission
operating profit % of group operating profit
39
Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries, prior period numbers adjusted for the implementation of IAS 19 (revised) ‘Employee benefits’
All figures calculated at constant currency including timing
Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2013 rate ($1.55 to £1.00) to 2012 results (when the average rate was $1.58 to £1.00)
All timing over and under recoveries referred to are in period numbers
UK Transmission
12% Operating profit ex. timing % of group operating profit
Higher operating profits driven by higher
regulatory allowances
Timing over-recovery of £8m % of group operating profit
29
Lower operating profit led by £60m loss of
deferral income. £57m timing under-recovery
Partially mitigated by new Massachusetts storm
fund and lower bad debt expense
Operating performance from main UK non-regulated
businesses in line with prior year
Profitability offset by continued US systems
implementation costs
£614m
Lower operating profit reflecting reduced allowed
return, higher gearing and gas permit timing
Timing under-recovery of £12m
UK Gas Transmission
9 £133m operating profit % of group operating profit
UK Gas Distribution
£456m operating profit
% of group operating profit
US Regulated
£330m operating profit
21
% of group operating profit
Other
£39m operating profit
2
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Year on year timing of £32m
Higher revenues led by RIIO revenue resets and
the French interconnector
Increased controllable costs and depreciation
15
Visual representation only – not to scale
Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries. Prior period numbers adjusted for the implementation of IAS 19 (revised) ‘Employee benefits
Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2013 rate ($1.55 to £1.00) to 2012 results (when the average rate was $1.58 to £1.00)
Post retirement costs represent pensions and other post employment benefits
Operating profit
1,597 1,572
32
91
25
45 (71) (10) (34) (30)
(73)
2012operatingprofit atconstantcurrency
timing net regulatedincome
controllableoperating
costs
postretirement
costs
regulateddepreciation
&amortisation
bad debts otheroperating
costs
US systemcosts
otheractivities
2013operating
profit
£m
Operating profit
Operating profit excluding timing 3% lower
2% lower
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US systems
Increased SAP workload continues
Complex project, touching around 90 other systems
Need to separate LIPA systems from start of 2014
Costs in the second half expected to be lower than
the ~£90m incurred in first six months
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Interest, tax and earnings
Finance costs
9% higher* than 2012
Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries
* Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2013 rate ($1.55 to £1.00) to 2012 results (when the average rate was $1.58 to £1.00)
Effective interest rate of
5.3%
Higher cost of carry on
gross debt associated with
pre financing
£605m
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Debt financing Operating companies, external debt
18
Over last six months long term interest rates increased by 100bps
Only back to 2011 levels – long way below pre-2008 financial crisis levels
US ~£4-5bn
~80% fixed rate
Debt allowances typically reflect
embedded fixed rate - matching
allowance manages risk
Limited exposure in medium
term to refinancing
UK ~£13-14bn
~45% RPI linked
Debt allowances reset annually
using iBoxx tracker
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UK debt financing
19
2.92%
2.72%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
iBoxx annual
yield
iBoxx trailing
average
spread to
NG yield
iBoxx: real
rate of ~1.5%
Scope to deliver continued outperformance
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Interest, tax and earnings
Business performance, excluding exceptional items, remeasurements and stranded cost recoveries
* Constant currency figures calculated by applying the average 2013 rate ($1.55 to £1.00) to 2012 results (when the average rate was $1.58 to £1.00)
Tax rate 400bp lower than
2012
Reflects lower proportion
of US profits in H1 and
lower UK corporation tax
rate
Effective tax rate
23% at £(225)m
Earnings per share
20.4p
Finance costs
9% higher* than 2012
Effective interest rate
of 5.3%
Higher cost of carry on
gross debt associated
with pre financing
£605m
£761m earnings
3,729m weighted avg.
shares
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Dividend
21
2013/14 interim dividend held at 14.49p
Full effect of annual increase in the total dividend expected to be
reflected in this year’s final dividend
Future interim dividends expected to be 35% of the prior year’s full
dividend
“We aim to grow the ordinary dividend at least
in line with the rate of RPI inflation each year
for the foreseeable future”
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Scrip dividend
22
August take up over 45%
Over next few years, scrip helps maintain an
A- credit rating
However, excess take up of little further value
Suspending this interim scrip option
Limits this year’s overall take up to around
30%
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Cash flows and net debt
Operating cash flows from continuing operations before exceptional items, remeasurements, stranded cost recoveries and taxation
Period ended 30 September 2013 £m
Operating profit 1,572
Depreciation & amortisation 690
Pensions (174)
Working capital & other (130)
Net operating cash flow 1,958
Net debt 21,374
Net operating cash flow
£2.0bn Operating cash flow after capex
£85m Net debt
£21.4bn
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Guidance for 2013/14
French interconnector performed well in first half,
somewhat lower in second half
SAP costs continue, albeit reduced level expected
Full year tax rate expected of 26% - 27%
Capital investment revised to around £3.5bn
Net debt increasing by around £1bn, excluding FX
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Strategy, growth and returns
2013/14
Steve Holliday | Chief Executive
Half year results
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Business developments
UK increased uncertainty around
timing of new generation build
US focusing on need for future
investments
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0
800
1600
£m
09
/10
price
s
27
0
3000
6000
MW
2014 2019
load
non-load
UK: Electricity Transmission
Baseline MW connections Baseline capital expenditure allowance*
2014 2019
*Allowed capital spend for the electricity transmission owner, excludes system operator capex
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28
0
20
40
60
80
2013 2023
Feb-2012 Aug-2013
UK: Electricity Transmission Contracted generation connections
Currently
low levels of
new
generation
construction Increase in
contracted
generation to
2023
Low level sustains
reflecting delayed
projects
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UK: Electricity Transmission capital priorities Still investing in load related and strategic projects
Investment in
constraint reduction
Completion of
major projects
Extensive pre
works
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UK: Electricity Transmission non-load investment Continuing at a material level
Age of grid
Need to replace critical
infrastructure
~£500m in 2012/13 –
similar levels in 2013/14 0
800
1600
£m
09
/10
price
s
load
non-load
Baseline capital expenditure allowance*
2014 2019
*Allowed capital spend for the electricity transmission owner, excludes system operator capex
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UK: gas investments Different agenda
Major transmission investments always
planned for end of RIIO period
Gas distribution remains focused on
repex and safety agenda
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UK: need for flexibility
Investment could accelerate
Totex allowances flex for the outputs needed
Customers only fund necessary outputs
Continue to invest a significant amount in next 2-3 years
Overall investment programme still feels about right
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UK: medium term drivers of investment
Growth expectations remain
strong
0
20
40
60
80
2013 2023
Feb-2012 Aug-2013
Sustained investment at current
levels in UK Electricity
Transmission drives average
8-10% asset growth
Contracted generation connections
Overall UK growth ~6%pa
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US: investment opportunities
Currently investing ~$1.8bn pa
Next year forecast ~$2bn pa
Medium term ~$2.5bn pa Shale gas
Changing generation mix
Network resilience
Business development
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New York state
Repowering generation in Long Island
- Advanced discussions around $1.5bn
investment in Barrett facility
US: investment opportunities
New York Transmission consortium
energy superhighway
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US: investment opportunities
Clean Line
Projects making good progress
Grain Belt Express Clean Line
- State of Kansas approval
- $2 billion project
- Targeted construction in 2016
- Commissioning in 2018
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UK Streamline organisation and
deliver outputs to drive
outperformance under RIIO
US Build on new rate cases
and systems to enhance
customer service and drive
efficiencies
2013/14 priorities
37
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Outlook
38
Solid start to the year
Remain confident of delivering
growth and returns
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Appendix
2013/14
Half year results
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Appendix 1: Pensions & other post-retirement
benefit obligations (IAS19 data)
UK US
At 30 September 2013 (£m) ESPS NGUK PS Pensions OPEBs NG total
Market value of assets 1,871 15,225 4,145 1,520 22,761
Present value of liabilities (2,476) (15,671) (4,465) (2,529) (25,141)
Net liability (605) (446) (320) (1,009) (2,380)
Deferred taxation 121 89 134 409 753
Liability net of taxation (484) (357) (186) (600) (1,627)
Discount rates 4.4% 4.4% 5.3% 5.3%
OPEBs = other post employment benefits
1 Adjusted for the impact of changes to financial accounting standard IAS19 (‘Employee Benefits’)
UK US
At 31 March 20131 (£m) ESPS NGUK PS Pensions OPEBs NG total
Market value of assets 1,943 15,449 4,378 1,515 23,285
Present value of liabilities (2,563) (15,998) (5,118) (3,103) (26,782)
Net liability (620) (549) (740) (1,588) (3,497)
Deferred taxation 143 126 303 636 1,208
Liability net of taxation (477) (423) (437) (952) (2,289)
Discount rates 4.3% 4.3% 4.7% 4.7%
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Appendix 2: Timing Impacts
£m
UK Electricity
Transmission
UK Gas
Transmission
UK Gas
Distribution
US
Regulated Total
2013/14 Opening balance * 5 19 (8) 111 127
2013/14 over/(under) recovery 10 (12) 8 (57) (51)
2013/14 Closing balance to return / (recover) 15 7 - 54 76
2012/13 Opening balance (24) 2 2 132 112
2012/13 over/(under) recovery 21 (9) (3) (92) (83)
2012/13 Closing balance to return / (recover) (3) (7) (1) 40 29
Year on year timing variance (11) (3) 11 35 32
• All USD balances stated using the average 2013 rate ($1.55 to £1.00) 41
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Appendix 3: Weighted average number of shares
Period ended 30 September 2013 2012
Number of shares (millions):
Prior period as reported (weighted average) - 3,637
January 2013 scrip dividend shares - 27
Current period opening shares 3,665 -
3,665 3,664
August 2013 dividend scrip shares 60 60
Other share issuances (weighted from issuance) 4 -
Weighted average number of shares (2012 restated) 3,729 3,724
Business performance earnings (£m) 761 766
Business performance EPS (2012 restated) 20.4p 20.6p
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