Titanium AM - The solution to supply chain challenges
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Transcript of Titanium AM - The solution to supply chain challenges
Titanium additive manufacturing the solution to current supply chain challengesSpeedNews Conference ToulouseSeptember 15th, 2014Jon André Løkke, CEO
Slide 1
Slide 2
10 years!
AM for Titanium components
not relevant for commercial
aero quality not good enough!
Only in special applications
cost is very high!
No significant industrial impact
capacity is low!
NTi: Introducing industrial scale 3D printingBrief introduction to NTi
Slide 3 Investor Presentation | Private & Confidential
» A titanium component producer based in Norway
» A novel game changing technology (3D printing) to produce complex Titanium components with unsurpassed quality
» Established in 2007 by Scatec AS
» Current ownership split between - Scatec AS - 26.3%- The Aljomaih Group - 60.8%- Employees/other - 12.9%
Agenda for this presentation
» Titanium market under pressure, high demand and concentrated supply chain
» Titanium 3D printing still not widely adopted within aerospace
» Breaking aerospace misconceptions by offering a new solution
Titanium market under pressure, high demand and concentrated supply chain
Slide 4
Titanium: a metal with unique properties
Slide 5
Strength-to-weight ratio
Corrosion resistant
Composite compatible
Non-magnetic
Shape memory
Shock absorbent
Biocomp.
3
45
2
1
6
7
Medical / Dental
Marine / Offshore
Defense
Industrial / chemical
Commercial aerospace
Automotive
The properties of titanium make it ideal for various uses within a wide range of capital-intensive industries
Titanium demand is growing
020406080
100120140160180
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Industrial/consumer Commercial aerospace Defense
» Expect continuous growth in demand
» Largest growth from commercial aerospace
In 2016, commercial aero is estimated at ~65 000 MTWith annual growth of ~5 000 MT
Slide 6
2%
7%
2%
Source: RTI IR 2013, Roskill 2013, NTi estimates
B767
B737
B747B757
B727
B777
B787A350
A330
A300
B747
A380
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
4%
8%
12%
16%
Titanium in commercial aircrafts increasing
% fl
y w
eigh
t of t
itani
um
Source: Roskil, 2010
Slide 7
Ti buy weight
Boeing backlog and prod rates (2010-2015)
B737
B787
B777
B747
B767
BOEING
Record Aerospace backlog and prod ratesAirbus backlog and prod rates (2010-2015)
A320
A350
A330
A380
AIRBUS
Slide 8
From 34 to 42/month
From 0 to 5/month
From 5 to 8/month
From 1.2 to 2.5/month
236
180
5,912
742
4,754 From 31.5 to 42/month
From 2 to 10/month
From 5 to 8.3/month
From 1 to 1.8/month
From 1.5 to 2/month
567
49
5,503
887
3,952
48
Source: Airbus and Boeing website June 2014, RTI IP presentation 2014
RTI estimates 393 thousand tons (867 million lbs ) of titanium in backlogGrowth platforms (A350, A380, B787) comprise 50% of total Ti backlog
787 commercial stats
» Sales expectations -
+1 750 units
» Titanium buy-weight:~120 tonnes
» Ti fly-weight: ~25 tonnes
» Ti buy-to-fly ratio:~ 5:1
Titanium fly-weight as high as 25 tonnes (Boeing 787, Dreamliner)
Slide 9
Total market for commercial aircrafts» 100 commercial planes per month in 2012
» Boeing: 601 planes delivered» Airbus: 588 planes delivered
Zero fuel weight161-181
tonnes
Titanium15%
Titanium production capacity concentratedA handful of companies have large supplier power
Slide 10
Titanium sponge Melted (ingot, slab) Milled products
Production(2012, 000s tons)
Capacity(2012, 000s tons)
Top 5 players
Top 5 market share
240 220 165
330 380 250
VSMPO AvismaOsaka TitaniumUKTMPToho TitaniumZunyi Titanium
VSMPO AvismaTimet (PCC)ATI AllvacToho TitaniumBaoji
VSMPO Avisma (~16.5%)Timet (PCC)ATI AllvacKobe SteelBaoji
50-55% 60-65% NA, est at 50-60%
Source: Roskill report 2013
Lead-times are very longTitanium delivery lead time right-to-buy and otherWeeks, not including transportation and processing
Slide 11
55
30
10
15
5
20
30
50
40
45
Forgings
Extrusions
Sheet/plate
Billett/bar/rod
Ingot
Titanium forgings lead time as high as 75 weeks
75 w
60 w
60 w
55 w
50 w
Titanium 3D printing still not widely adopted within aerospace
Slide 12
3D printing is referred to as the 3rd industrial revolution
Slide 13
1st 3rd2nd
Late 18th century Early 20th century Now
United Kingdom United States of America Globally
Mechanization of textile industry Mass production (Ford)
Mass customization through digitalization of manufacturing
Multiple Titanium manufacturing processes available
Slide 14
Conventional part manufacturing processes
Additive Manufacturing/ 3D Printing processes
Milled plateMill annealedBeta annealed
Powder basedLaser
Powder meltingPowder sintering (SLS)Powder blowing
Electron beamPowder meltingPowder sintering (EBS)
Wire basedElectron beam
Electron beam free form fabric. (EBFFF)LaserArc
Plasma arc direct metal deposition (DMD)
ForgingsForged blockDie forgings
Extrusions
CastingsPrecision castings ++Hot Isostatic Pressing (HIP) castings
Sheet metal basedSheet metal ultrasonic consolidation
Conventional forming
In commercial aerospace, Ti AM (powder based) mainly replacing castings
Many AM initiatives related to engines...
Slide 15
GE Aviation JV with Snecma to manufacture >30000 fuel nozzles annually for its LEAP engine starting with 2016.
Pratt& Whitney to make the PW1500G engine (for Bombardier Cseries) will contain 24 AM metal parts from 2015.
Rolls-Royce is gearing up to use 3D printing technology to produce components for its jet engines, as a means of speeding up production and making more lightweight parts.
aerostructures - until NOW!
Titanium 3D print in commercial aerospace
» Not yet adapted, mainly future applications
» Lower quality requirements to replace casted parts, mainly engine
» Represents a relatively small share of the Titanium fly weight
» No solution for structural parts implemented yet
Slide 16
Breaking aerospace misconceptions by offering a new solution
Slide 17
It all starts with a CAD design of the component
NTi technology and production process
Slide 18
Deposition program is generated using the
CAD data
Transferred to the DMD production unit
Plasma arc welding of titanium wire directly on
substrate
Manufacturing a near net shape component
Minimum machining to obtain finished shape
Homogenous microstructure across
layered material
Reduced waste compared to traditional
production methods
Pre-form to finished component
Slide 19
NTi can contribute to considerable cost reduction for high buy-to-fly partsUnit costUSD/kg
Raw material Machiningand other
Total costs
16:1 1.5:16:1
Forged blockQuoted
Die forgingQuoted
DMDEstimated
Buy-to-fly ratio
Weight (kg)
Raw material cost (USD/kg)
~210 ~20~82
~55 ~65*~88
» Specifications for sample unit used for comparison:- Component produced in low volume
(40 components/year) - Dimensions: 406 x 508 x 229 mm- Finished product weight: ~13 kg
-86% -46% -72%
Slide 20
* Assumed cost for wire
NTi parts meet highest aerospace material quality standards
Slide 21
Yield strength (Mpa)
Ultimate tensile strength (Mpa)Production type
>910>835
896827Forging (Standard: AMS 4928
893827Plate - Mill annealed(Standard: AMS 4911
841745Plate - Beta annealed(Standard: AMS 4905
862793Casted
(Standard: AMS T-81915, -
Design defect factor
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Applicable due to pores and voids
* SAE Internaltional Aerospace Material Spesifications (AMS)
Ultra high Forged parts for
commercial aero
Casted quality
Forged parts for military applications
(Ti64 challenges)
Casted quality
5 - 10 kg/hour(Net production rate
~15,000kg/year)
5 - 10 kg/hour
5 - 10 kg/hour
Production rate
~200 kg/year
Wire + plasma arc(Inert atmosphere)
Blown powderbased + laser
Wire + electron beam based
(Vacuum)
Powder bed based + laser or el beam
(vacuum or inert atmosphere)
NTi vs other 3D metal printing technologiesTechnology Deposition rateQuality
Both small and large components
Both small and large components
Both small and large components
Small high value components with highly complex
internal structures
Slide 22
Norsk Titanium (NTi)
NTi competitive position
» Highest production rate » Highest material standard
(forged-mill annealed Ti64 quality)
» Lowest raw material cost (45 - 65 USD/kg)
» Cheapest production process
» Most Advanced aerospace production process (FAA accreditation anticipated within 12 months)
Slide 23
NTi is close to commercial Aerospace qualification
Slide 24
Actual system «flight proven» through successful mission operations
Actual system completed and «flight qualified» through test and demonstration (ground or flight)
System prototype demonstration in a space environment
System/subsystem model or prototype demonstration in a relevant environment (ground or slight)
Component and/or breadboard validation in relevant environment
Component and/or breadboard validation in laboratory environment
Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof-of-concept
Technology concept and/or application formulated
Basic principles observed and reportedTRL 1
TRL 2
TRL 3
TRL 4
TRL 5
TRL 6
TRL 7
TRL 8
TRL 9
Technology Demonstration
Technology Development
Research to Prove Feasibility
Basic Technology research
Large scale consistency test/allowables plan
Component test/commercial
launch/operations
TRL: Technology Readiness Level
Industrial scale 3D printing - indicative roadmap
Slide 25
H1-2014 H2-2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Decision gateone
~12 industrial printers
First phase fully operational
Phas
e 1Contract awards with
tier 1 and OEMs to the aerospace industry
Decision gatetwo
~12 industrial printers
Second phase fully operational
Phas
e 2
Contract awards for second plant
Decision gatethree
~12 industrial printers
Third phase fully operational
Plan
t 3Contract awards for third plant
NTi production for TRL 8 qualification
Other qualification runs, i.e. TRL for Europe and other industries
TRL8 qualification process by Spirit AeroSystems and FAA
Build larger production facilities (alone or as JV) within aerospace hubsEvaluate selling printers when concept is proven
Summary
Slide 26
Titanium market under pressure, high demand and concentrated supply chain
Titanium 3D printing still not widely adopted within aerospace
Norsk Titanium breaking aerospace misconceptions by offering a new solution
A shift in the demand for advanced titanium components
Market growth is driven by lighter and more fuel efficient aircrafts
Concentrated supply chain results in long lead times
3D printing believed to be the 3rd industrial revolution
Ti 3D print mainly used to replace castings (engine) in commercial aerospace
No solution for 3D printed To structural parts implemented yet
Large scale additive manufacturing of Ti parts (drop-in replacement) for medium to large parts
High material quality and TRL8 maturity level
Competitive cost, price and high delivery flexibility
Slide 27
10 years!
AM for Titanium components
not relevant for commercial
aero quality not good enough!
Only in special applications
cost is very high!
No significant industrial impact
capacity is low!
Slide 28
candidate for a manufacturing technology that will change the world»Dr. David Jarvis, Head of New Material and Energy, European Space Agency