Tips & Trading Strategies for the Currency Market -- Kathy Lien 2007.pdf · Tips & Trading...
Transcript of Tips & Trading Strategies for the Currency Market -- Kathy Lien 2007.pdf · Tips & Trading...
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Tips & Trading Tips & Trading Strategies for the Strategies for the Currency MarketCurrency Market
Kathy Lien Kathy Lien Chief StrategistChief Strategist
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DisclaimerDisclaimerLeveraged foreign exchange and options trading carries a significant level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and option trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.The contents provided in this seminar are subject to change at any time without notice.
There is no guarantee that the systems, trading techniques, FX PowerCourse, trading methods, indicators or other information presented at this seminar will result in profits or not result in losses. The content is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as a trading recommendation.
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Learn the Discipline of Learn the Discipline of Trading ProsTrading Pros
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1) Define a Strategy
2) Money Management Rules
3) TEST, TEST, TEST
4) Understand Performance
5) Understand Drawdown
6) Improvement
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Important ConsiderationsImportant Considerations
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• Fundamental or Technical
• Range / Trend or Breakout
• Long Term, Medium Term or Short Term
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1) Define a Strategy 1) Define a Strategy –– Part 1Part 1
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• What Currencies Will You Trade?
• Majors vs. Crosses
• What Time Frame Will You Trade?
• 15 Min, Hourly or Daily Charts?
• Will You Hold Positions After 5pm
EST, Over the Weekend?K
1) Define a Strategy 1) Define a Strategy –– Part 2Part 2
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• Multiple Entry / Multiple Exits?
• How Low are You Willing to Buy?
• What Risk / Reward Parameters?
• When to Take Profits, Trail Stops,
Close the Position
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2) Money Management Rules2) Money Management Rules
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• Everything Needs to be Back Tested!
• Coding – Easy Language
• Review the Charts, Look for at Least 15-20
Examples > What Happened?
• Look at a More Granular Time Frame
• If it doesnIf it doesn’’t make money on a demo account, it t make money on a demo account, it
probably wonprobably won’’t make money trading a live accountt make money trading a live accountK
3) TEST, TEST, TEST3) TEST, TEST, TEST
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• What is the Percentage of Profitable
Trades that you can Expect?
• What is the Profit Factor?
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4) Understand Performance4) Understand Performance
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• What is the average drawdown needed on
the trade?
• What is the Biggest Drawdown?
• Is that on the Close of the Trade or
Intraday?
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5) Understand Drawdown5) Understand Drawdown
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The Table of DoomThe Table of Doom
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1000%90%400%75%100%50%33%25%
Amount of Return Necessary to Restore to Original Equity Value
Amount of Equity Lost
Figure 1 - This table shows just how difficult it is to recover from a debilitating loss.
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The Table of DoomThe Table of Doom
$5,904.90$7,737.81$9,039.21$9,509.901% Loss$6,561.00$8,145.06$9,223.68$9,605.961% Loss$7,290.00$8,573.75$9,411.92$9,702.991% Loss$8,100.00$9,025.00$9,604.00$9,801.001% Loss$9,000.00$9,500.00$9,800.00$9,900.001% Loss
$10,000.00$10,000.00$10,000.00$10,000.00Starting Value
10:1 Leverage
5:1 Leverage
2:1 Leverage
No Leverage
5% To Recover 5% To Recover $10,000$10,000
70% To Recover70% To Recover$10,000$10,000
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• ‘‘What worksWhat works’’ and and ‘‘What doesnWhat doesn’’tt’’
• When are the Losing Trades Usually
Made?
• Avoid News
• Limit to Trading to Specific Time of Day
• Cutting Losses EarlierK
6) Improvement6) Improvement
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:Establish realistic goals
Top money managers risk no more than 5% of Top money managers risk no more than 5% of total account equitytotal account equityProfessional money managers (try) to beat the Professional money managers (try) to beat the S&P which averages around 8S&P which averages around 8--12% annually12% annuallyHow much do I hope to make every day, How much do I hope to make every day, month, and year?month, and year?
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Realistic ResultsRealistic Results
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Barclay Currency Traders IndexBarclay Currency Traders Index
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StrategiesStrategies
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Setups, Setups, Setups!Setups, Setups, Setups!
Seven Day Extension Fade – Statistical Significance
Trading Rules
• Look for 7 consecutive bars of weakness (where each bar’s close is below the prior)
• Buy at the open of the next bar• Place stop at the low of the seventh bar minus 10 pips• First target is amount risked, move stop on remaining half to
breakeven • Second target is three times the amount risked
**Reverse for ShortB
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Seven Day Extension Fade Seven Day Extension Fade –– AUD/CADAUD/CAD
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Seven Day Extension Fade Seven Day Extension Fade –– NZD/USDNZD/USD
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Seven Day Extension Fade Seven Day Extension Fade –– GBP/USDGBP/USD
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Seven Day Extension Fade Seven Day Extension Fade ––GBP/USD HourlyGBP/USD Hourly
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Seven Day Extension Fade Seven Day Extension Fade –– Failed TradeFailed Trade
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- 17 pips
Stop at 1.2974
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Long Trade:Long Trade:Look for currency pair to be trading below the 20Look for currency pair to be trading below the 20--period EMA and period EMA and MACD to be negativeMACD to be negativeWait for price to cross above the 20Wait for price to cross above the 20--period EMA, make sure that period EMA, make sure that MACD is either in the process of crossing from negative to positMACD is either in the process of crossing from negative to positive ive or have crossed into positive territory no longer than 5 bars agor have crossed into positive territory no longer than 5 bars agooGo long 10 pips above the 20Go long 10 pips above the 20--period EMAperiod EMAFor aggressive trade, place stop at swing low on 5 minute chart.For aggressive trade, place stop at swing low on 5 minute chart. For For conservative trade, place stop 20 pips below 20conservative trade, place stop 20 pips below 20--period EMAperiod EMASell half of position at entry plus amount risked, move stop on Sell half of position at entry plus amount risked, move stop on second half to breakevensecond half to breakevenTrail stop by higher of breakeven or 20Trail stop by higher of breakeven or 20--period EMA minus 15 pipsperiod EMA minus 15 pips
Momentum Burst
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Tick IndicatorTick Indicator
Trade Entry @ 1.2044 + 10 pips = 1.2054
Stop = 1.2044-20 = 1.2024
T1 = 1.2044+30=1.2074
(Hit 30 min later)
T2 = 20 EMA – 15 Pips
(Hit at 1.2157)
Total Profit 71.5 pips
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Tick IndicatorTick Indicator
Trade Entry @ 0.6294
Stop = 20-EMA plus 20 Pips = 0.6321
T1 = Entry plus amount risked = 0.6267 (Hit 2hr)
T2 = 20 EMA + 15 Pips (Hit at 0.6262)
Total Profit 29.5 pips
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Tick IndicatorTick Indicator
Trade Entry @ 1.5713
Stop = 1.5713 + 20 pips = 1.5733
T1 = 1.5711 – amount risked = 1.5689
Missed T1 Stopped out for 22 pip loss
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Our Motto:Our Motto:Combining Technical Combining Technical With FundamentalsWith Fundamentals
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Trading in Action = Anatomy of a TradeTrading in Action = Anatomy of a TradeShort AUD/USD
Fundamental Reasons
• Looking for a strong October non-farm payrolls – Recent Jobless claims, ADP and Hudson Employment Reports were very strong
Technical Reasons
• Statistical Significance – Over Past 10 Yrs, AUD/USD saw a 7 day move 14 times, with only 3 of those 14 lasting for longer than 7 days
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AUD/USD ChartAUD/USD Chart
BK
Went short AUD/USD at 0.7735, 0.7765 stop, exited ½ at 0.7712, ½ at 0.7687 = 58 pips in 24 hours.
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Where to Find Trading Where to Find Trading Recommendations?Recommendations?
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Intelligent Tools From DailyFX.comIntelligent Tools From DailyFX.com
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Picking Tops and BottomsPicking Tops and Bottoms
1. Picking Turn Trades Can be Dangerous and Frustrating
2. Simple Overbought and Oversold Measures are not Enough
3. Yet Taken Properly these Trades Can be Very Lucrative
Up 2400 Pips Since May!
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Picking Tops and BottomsPicking Tops and Bottoms
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Picking Tops and BottomsPicking Tops and Bottoms
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Dynamic Carry Trade IndexDynamic Carry Trade Index
• Why Trade the Carry?
• Most Successful Strategy Over Last 3 Years
• Generates Positive Interest Every Day
• Up 593 Pips Last Week
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Dynamic Carry Trade IndexDynamic Carry Trade Index
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Trading the NewsTrading the News
1. Shows the Past Three Event and its Price Reaction
2. Uses Highly Disciplined Approach for Both Entry and Exit
3. Provides Possible Scenarios for both Upward and Downward Surprises
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Trading the NewsTrading the News
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Trading the NewsTrading the News
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Trading the NewsTrading the News
Durable Goods
-7.8%a vs. -3.0%e
Ex trans
-3.1% vs -0.2%e
60 pips in 12 hours
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Why Wait? Why Wait?
Get these Ideas on a Get these Ideas on a DAILY Basis!DAILY Basis!
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BKForexBKForex AdvisorAdvisorAs a BKForex Advisor Subscriber, you will get:
1) Between 2 and 3 Clear Cut Trade Ideas Each Week 2) The Current Technical Trends in the Currency
Market Our Personal Trading Bias on the Key Economic
News Releases of the Week 3) Weekly Fundamental and Technical Webcast -
Chart and Data Analysis 4) Educational Screen casts of Some our Favorite
Technical Setups 5) Bi-Weekly Q and A Chat Sessions with Boris and
Kathy to Discuss Trading Ideas and Markets 6) Live Trading with Boris Using High Frequency
Strategies for Effective Short Term Trading 7) Free Copy of our Book - High Probability Trading
for the Currency Market - $89 Value
Subscribe for $99 / Month –Cancel Anytime!
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12 Keys to Trading Success
Rob Chuck Roland
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Lesson 1If the News Is Good
But The Stock Plummets Buy the Crash
Dana Allen
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Lesson 1Citibank (NYSE:C) October 15, 2007
Earnings 47 cents1000 Shares = $1000 in 2
hours
Market Expects 44 cents
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Lesson 2Know Yourself
Know Your Trade
Rob Booker
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Lesson 2
I am a 50- to 100-pip-a-week trader. Meaning I have pretty muchdecided that that’s about the limits of my human capacity and over
50 to 100, I start getting a little bit crazy. I become a little less disciplined and a little bit more euphoric to put it mildly. So, I have
not generally done a lot to increase that pip target overtime, even though systems that I build might produce bigger gains.
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Lesson 3Revenge is NEVER Sweet
Chuck Hays
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Lesson 3
Revenge trades are the most costly trades. If you have a badtrade and you try to make it all back at one time, you’re goingto lose more money. I think I learned from experience that the
best thing to do is to try and get back and get even a little bit at a time
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Lesson 4Triple Your Demo Twice Before
Trading for Real
Hoosain Harneker
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Lesson 4
Nobody can master a professional skill right away. Doctors practice on cadavers, lawyers spend countless hours in moot court, and mechanics toil for months in classroom garages. Practice does not guarantee success but
lack of practice almost always ensures failure.
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Lesson 5Don’t Lose Your Cool —
Always Use a Stop
Franki Law
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Lesson 5
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Lesson 6Protect Your Capital Protect
Yourself
Indi Jones
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Lesson 6
Clint Eastwood would be a great commodity trader because hetold the Million Dollar Baby that rule number one in boxing is toprotect yourself. And I think the same is true in trading. If youwant to trade, your capital is everything. So, if you want to be a
great trader, you have got to protect that capital. failure.
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Lesson 7Averaging DOWN Is for Losers,
but Averaging IN Can Be the Difference Between Success and Failure
Roland Campbell
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Lesson 7
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Lesson 8Tops or Bottoms Are Only
Evident in Hindsight
Tyrone Ball
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Lesson 8
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Lesson 9Turn Happens Only Once But
Trend Is Continuous
Ashkan Balour
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Lesson 9
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Lesson 10The Last 25 Percent of the Position Can Make A Disproportionate Contribution
to Your Overall Profit
Paul Willette
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Lesson 105 Contracts - 1.00 point profit5 Contracts - 2.00 point profit5 Contracts - 3.00 point profit
15 Contracts=30 points
3 contracts - 5.00 point profit2 Contracts - 7.00 point profit
5 Contracts=29 points
Last 25% makes nearly half the profit
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Lesson 11Make Your Money Work
for You
Marcelino Livian
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Lesson 11
Much like the largest money center banks and the savviest hedge funds in the world, Marcelino always looks to get paid while
holding a position.
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Lesson 12Beat Computers at Their Own Game
By Using Probative Orders
Steve Ickow
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Lesson 12
Whether you are a machine or a human being, when it comes to financial markets ultimately you are either a buyer or a seller. By
constantly probing the logic of the machines, Steve Ickow is able to figure out their true intentions and turn that information into
profitable trades.
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It ain’t about how hard you hit, it’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. That’s how
winning is done!—Rocky Balboa
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Thank You,Thank You,Good Luck And Good TradingGood Luck And Good Trading