Tipping PointsTipping PointsA Future World for Facilities

Dr James Bellini

24 September 2007

Brain Map of the FuturistBrain Map of the Futurist

Key knowledge areas

History

technology

psychology

Arts

Energy

geographysociology

Geo-politics

science

statistics

Drivers Of The Facilities Drivers Of The Facilities Future Future

Older, richer marketsLeisure imperativeVirtual organisationsPost-carbon economyGeneration CA Connected WorldDemoted ‘reality’

‘The Future’ is about ways of seeing the present…’

A Global Business Map?

Or seven business cultures?

North Atlantic

Latin

Eastern Orthodox

East AsiaMuslim

Hindu

African

North Atlantic

Latin

Reality Check - Dateline Reality Check - Dateline 2015 2015

A leading space nation begins recovery of helium-3 from the surface of the Moon

Helium-3 is a potential fusion fuel that one day could replace all earthly energy sources

That nation is China

What Is ‘Flash Mobbing’?What Is ‘Flash Mobbing’?Timeline: Manhattan July 2003

several hundred people suddenly gather in 9th floor rug department of Macy’s store

they begin discussing buying a ‘Love Rug’as bewildered sales staff look on, they

suddenly melt awaydays later several hundred people suddenly

flood plush lobby of Hyatt Hotel and burst into synchronised applause for bemused guests

Horizon 1990Horizon 1990

A World Without…

Internet -Emails -Websites Text messages Laptops DVDs Digital cameras Video phones iPods Genetics Chat rooms, phishing, blogging, podcasting,

flash mobbing…

Tipping PointsTipping Points

Future Worlds◦ People shift◦ Eastern promise

Future Realities of Work and Play◦ Where, when and why?

Shrinking EuropeShrinking Europe [% of world population][% of world population]

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2050

EuropeRest of World

2000

2005

2010 2015

2020 2025

ITALY

GERMANY

DENMARK

SPAINEU 15

Europe’s Disappearing People

Year when population starts to shrink

Europe’s Disappearing Workers

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

ITALY

GERMANY

DENMARKSPAIN

EU 15AUSTRIA

FINLAND

PORTUGAL

FRANCEUK

IRELAND

NL

BELGIUM

Year when available workforcestarts to shrink

New Households

A Bridget Jones Britain: Living Alone

The Coming LeisureThe Coming Leisure RevolutionRevolution

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1950 2020

Hours per working lifetime

A New Age of ConsumersA New Age of Consumers

In the 21st century the average UK citizen will live 30 years longer than in the 19th century -- a unique, new generation of demanding, affluent, aspirational, older people.

A Frivolous Future?A Frivolous Future?

Completelysuperfluous

Luxury

Important

Basic

Life necessity

2020

Changing Consumer Patterns

A Population MosaicA Population Mosaic

Annual growth rate in %

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Sweden Australia S Arabia Libya S Africa

Eastern GiantsEastern Giants [2050 population in billions][2050 population in billions]

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

India China USA Nigeria Indonesia

An Urban Future An Urban Future

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1800 1900 1960 2000 2030 2050

% world population living in cities

World Wealth 2020World Wealth 2020

The China FactorThe China Factor

Is world’s biggest consumer of grain, meat, coal, steel, cement, timber …..

By 2030 China will:◦ Match US 2006 living standards◦ Eat two-thirds of world’s 2006 grain harvest◦ Use double world’s current output of paper◦ Have 1.1 billion cars

current world total is 800 million roads etc will equal current area of rice growing

A Networked WorldA Networked World

In 1965 there were 10,000 people for every computer

In 2015 there will be 10,000 connected devices for every person

A Digital WorldA Digital World

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2006 2010

Total Digital Information Created Per Year

exabytes

1 exabyte = 1 billion gigabytes Source: IDC

A New Collective A New Collective IntelligenceIntelligence

The Wealth of NetworksThe Wealth of Networks

The networked information economy is replacing the industrial information economy

The aggregate effect of individual actions creates a new and rich virtual information universe

The Wisdom of CrowdsThe Wisdom of Crowds ‘Markets seem to work in practice. But we do not

know how they work in theory’

The ‘collective consciousness’ is the source of true insight and innovation

The benefits of ‘collective action’ are greater than the costs

The uniquely democratic characteristics of the Web are the route to high-value-added solutions

Harnessing Collective IntelligenceHarnessing Collective Intelligence

Re-inventing The WheelRe-inventing The Wheel

‘to build a car using the collectivecreativity of the Internet community’

OScar Manifesto

The successful company of 2020 will have no HQ, no CEO, own no IT and will

have one-tenth the fixed assets it has today

It’s most vital competitive resource will be the emotional connections it has built

with its customers

Doing Business in 2020

You are here

Traditional ‘Mistrust’ Model

Virtual ModelVirtual Model

TASK

Contingent specialist

Knowledge broker

Customer

PRE-INDUSTRIALPRE-INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRIALINDUSTRIAL VIRTUALVIRTUAL

TaskTask

Home/workHome/work

LocalLocal

CustomsCustoms

CommunitCommunit

yy

Role/Role/

PositionPosition

Factory/Factory/

officeoffice

MassifiedMassified

LawsLaws

InstitutionsInstitutions

TaskTask

NomadicNomadic

Centre-lessCentre-less

RelationshipRelationship

ss

NetworksNetworks

The Evolving ‘Job’

A Free-Agent FutureA Free-Agent Future

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

UK Germany France

Telework

FreE-work

% total 2020 workforce

Source: Telework Association

The Digital PersonThe Digital PersonHolistic entityUnpredictableIrrationalMultiple identitiesVirtual livesConfused

A New Psychological ContractA New Psychological Contract

We are moving from the Industrial Age

to the Connected Age

Business needs a new mentalmodel of how to engage inrelationships with its customers

Old Hierarchy Of Needs

New Hierarchy of Wants

A Dream SocietyA Dream Society

A new society in which businesses, communities and individuals will thrive on the basis of their stories, not just on data and information

What’s The Story?

Who Am I?Who Am I?

We constantly try to make sense of our life by forming a story about reality

The story we create internally provides context for our life but is not often articulated externally

Reality is something we actively construct – but each of us generates a slightly different version

This ‘reality’ drives our psyche as a consumer, employee, citizen

A ‘Real’ Future?A ‘Real’ Future?

Tipping PointsTipping PointsA Future World for Facilities

Dr James Bellini

24 September 2007