Tip of the Iceberg?Tip of the Iceberg?p gp gThe current state of transport NAMAsThe current state of transport NAMAs

Ko SakamotoTransport EconomistAsian Development Bank

9 February 2012Manila, Philippines

p

The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author and do notnecessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), orits Board of Governors or the governments they represent ADB does notits Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does notguarantee the accuracy of the data included in this presentation and accepts noresponsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may notnecessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

Transport: the awakening dragonTransport: the awakening dragon

• 23% of global CO2 from18000

• 23% of global CO2 from transport

• Growth of 2.8% p.a. 14000

16000International Aviation

International Shipping

Non-OECD pexpected between 2006 and 2030

M t th f i10000

12000

O2e

Non-OECD

OECD

• Most growth foreseen in road transport in developing countries6000

8000MtC

O

2000

4000

T t E i i P j ti

02000 2005 2020 2050

Transport Emission Projections (Source: Sakamoto, K, 2010 based on IEA

2010 and AEA 2010)

Copyright Ko Sakamoto

Copyright Ko SakamotoCopyright Ko Sakamoto

Copyright Ko Sakamoto

Copyright Ko Sakamoto

How to tame the dragong

Shift

Avoidthe need to travel

Shifttowards/maintain

share of sustainable

Improveefficiency of all

modessustainable modes

modes

FurtherFurther development

benefitsClimate mitigation

Paradigm shift in infrastructure development

How can NAMAs help?How can NAMAs help?pp

• Decision 1/CP.16 (Cancun Agreements)

• 48 Agrees that developing country Parties will• 48. Agrees that developing country Parties will take nationally appropriate mitigation actions in the context of sustainable development, supported p , ppand enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, aimed at achieving a deviation in emissions relative to ‘business as usual’ emissions in 2020;

What does this mean?

Nationally Appropriate

Mitigation ActionNAMA Appropriate Action

Reduces GHGs fromth b li

Reduces poverty

Reduces traffic accidentsthe baseline….

In a measurable

Reduces air pollution

R li ti

wayOften referred to asCo-benefits

Supports competitiveness

Relieves congestion“MRV”

Supports competitiveness

Types of NAMAsTypes of NAMAsInternational SupportNAMAs in developing countries

Domestically supported NAMAs

Technology/ knowledge transfer

Capacity building

Internationally supported NAMAs

Financing

Creditable NAMAs

FinancingMRV

Types of NAMAsTypes of NAMAsypyp

• Can be projects, programs, policies and strategiesand strategies

• Can be in any sector/subsector• Can be in any sector/subsector

Many countries are submitting NAMA Many countries are submitting NAMA proposals in transportproposals in transportproposals in transportproposals in transport

N A I P ti i64% Non-Annex I Parties proposing transport NAMAs (28 out of 44)

64%Ad t d f Bi t d 2011 A il bl tAdopted from Binsted, 2011. Available at :

www.transport2012.org/bridging/.../1493,NAMA_proposals_May_2011.pdf

Some examples of transport NAMAs Some examples of transport NAMAs from Asian developing countriesfrom Asian developing countriesfrom Asian developing countriesfrom Asian developing countries

• Indonesia (submitted)( )

• Shifting to low-emission transportation modes

• Mongolia (submitted)g ( )

• To promote the import of fuel efficient vehicles… use economic measures such as implementation of used vehicle i t t d d d hi l i t ti timport standards and vehicle registration tax

• Bangladesh (proposed)

R l t f i ffi i t hi l d i• Replacement of inefficient vehicles and engines

• The expansion of mass transport

PRC ( d)• PRC (proposed)

• Reform pricing mechanisms related to oil, natural gas and electricityelectricity

• Subsidies and incentives for clean energy vehicles

Coverage of ASI in NAMAsCoverage of ASI in NAMAs

Based on Matsuoka (2011) and Binsted (2011)Based on Matsuoka (2011) and Binsted (2011)

Tip of the icebergTip of the icebergp gp g

Submitted NAMAs

NAMAs in preparationNAMAs in preparation

Actions not referred to as NAMAs

Where are the climate negotiations now?Where are the climate negotiations now?gg

Legal form: Progress in Durban, with view

Financing: Operationalization of Green Climate Fund

on a common legal framework post 2020 Technology: Establishment of the

Climate Technology Center and Kyoto Protocol kept

alive

gyNetwork

Adaptation: Operationalization of Targets: “level of

ambition” inadequate to keep to 2 degree

Adaptation: Operationalization of adaptation fund

Mitigation: Nationally Appropriateto keep to 2 degree rise

Mitigation: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

COP17 Decisions (AWGCOP17 Decisions (AWG--LCA)LCA)COP17 Decisions (AWGCOP17 Decisions (AWG--LCA)LCA)

• Developing countries invited to submit (further)• Developing countries invited to submit (further) information on their NAMAs to the Secretariat, by 5 March 2012, including:g

• Underlying assumptions and methodologies

• Sectors and gases covered• Sectors and gases covered

• Global warming potential values used

• Support needs for implementation of nationally appropriate mitigation actions and

• Estimated mitigation outcomes

• In-session workshops to be held at the SB pmeetings (June)

COP17 Decisions (AWGCOP17 Decisions (AWG--LCA)LCA)COP17 Decisions (AWGCOP17 Decisions (AWG--LCA)LCA)

• For domestically supported NAMAs Subsidiary Body for Scientific andFor domestically supported NAMAs, Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) to develop general guidelines for MRV

• For internationally supported NAMAs, developing countries invited to submit further details on:

• Description of the mitigation action and national implementing entity

• Timeframe for implementation

• Estimated full cost of preparation

• Estimated full cost and incremental cost of implementation

• Amount and type of support required

• Estimated emission reductions

• Other indicators of implementation

• Other relevant information including co-benefits

Next step: matching NAMAs with supportp g pp

International SupportNAMAs in developing countries

Domestically supported NAMAs

Technology/ knowledge transfer

Capacity building

Internationally supported NAMAs

Financing

Creditable NAMAs

FinancingMRV

How are NAMAs different to How are NAMAs different to existing mechanisms?existing mechanisms?existing mechanisms?existing mechanisms?

CDM NAMAs

Target • Projects (e g BRT) and • Policies programmes and projectsTarget • Projects (e.g. BRT) and programmes of activities (PoA)

• Policies, programmes and projects

Initiator • Private sector, i.e. • National government (in cooperation ,Companies and designated operational entities (DOEs)

g ( pwith sub-national governments and private sector)

C f “ ddi i li ” Sh ld d li d i i i i iRequirements • Concept of “additionality”

• Sustainable development merits to be proven by government

• Should deliver deviation in emissions relative to ‘business as usual’ emissions in 2020

Registration with UNFCCC (Details togovernment • Registration with UNFCCC (Details to be confirmed)

Financing • Upfront financing by private entities

• Domestic resources plus international support (e g MDBentities.

• CERs awarded ex-post

international support (e.g. MDB funding, Green Climate Fund)

Impact • 2005 - 2011: • 2012 – 2020 (15-30% against BAU):Impact 2005 2011: 500 Mt CO2eq

2012 2020 (15 30% against BAU):more than 40,000 Mt CO2eq?

Based on Diaz-Bone (2011)

Lessons learnt from the CDMLessons learnt from the CDM

• 6,147 proposals for CDM project activities submitted for validation and/or registration by the CDM Executive Board

• Only 0.6% (37 proposals) have been submitted ashave been submitted as ‘transport’ projects

• Only 0.16 Mt CO2-eq. reduced O y 0 6 t CO eq educedper annum in transport sector

Source: Gomez, 2011 based on UNEP Risoe Centre

Need for NAMAs not to repeat the same mistake

Source: Gomez, 2011 based on UNEP Risoe Centre

What do countries need to make NAMAs work?

Photo: Arimbi Jinca (GIZ)

Main hurdles identifiedMain hurdles identified

Registration

Financing

MRV

Policy IdentificationPolicy Identification

Copyright Ko Sakamoto

Policy Identification

• Ensure transport ministries and local governments are engaged in NAMAgovernments are engaged in NAMA formulation

• Learn from best practices within and outside of the region (south-south transfer)of the region (south-south transfer)

• Ensure supportive policy framework is in pp p yplace (e.g. legislation and institutions)

Policy identification and programmingMRV

• Further develop transport sector compatible• Further develop transport sector compatible tools/methodologies to MRV transport NAMAs

> TEEMP tools financed by ADB

• Ensure MRV requirements do not restrict efforts Ensure MRV requirements do not restrict efforts in the sector

• Work to improve quality and quantity of data• Work to improve quality and quantity of data

> ADB TA on Transport Data starting in 2012

MRV / AppraisalPolicy identification and programmingFinancing

• Financial resources are already there (e.g. ADB’s Sustainable Transport Initiative)

• More opportunities on the way: Green Climate Fund to mobilize approx. 10 bn per annumFund to mobilize approx. 10 bn per annum

• Develop a strong pipeline of “bankable” projects• Develop a strong pipeline of bankable projects

MRV / AppraisalPolicy identification and programmingRegistration

• Ensure early registration of NAMAs: Reap first movers’ advantageeap st o e s ad a tage

• Keep eye out on other countries for ideas

• Exchange experience via e.g.:

www.slocat.net

How can we work together?How can we work together?gg

RegistrationRegister early

FinancingLink NAMAs with finance

MRVBuild capacity

P li Id tifi ti

MRV

Policy IdentificationBuild pipeline

Copyright Ko Sakamoto

Making the iceberg stick outMaking the iceberg stick outg gg g

• What you cannot “see”What you cannot see , you cannot support

• MRV is an important component in makingcomponent in making this happen

Thank youy

www.adb.org/transport

Ko Sakamoto

ksakamoto@adb.org