Tip Mellman Iran Survey Jan 24 2014

Final Frequencies (n=800)NATIONAL SURVEY

The Mellman Group, Inc.January 24, 2014

Hello. My name is _[FIRST NAME ONLY]_. I'm calling long distance from MRS. We are conducting a public opinion survey and I would like to ask you some questions. We are not selling anything, and I will not ask you for a contribution or donation. Could I please speak with [ASK FOR NAME ON LIST. IF NOT AVAILABLE, SCHEDULE TIME FOR A CALLBACK. YOU MAY ONLY SPEAK WITH ANOTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBER IF THEIR NAME IS ON LIST.] First, are you registered to vote at this address?

[RECORD, BUT DO NOT ASK, GENDER:]Male.......................................................................................... 48Female ...................................................................................... 52

Overall, do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of ? [READ NAME FROM LIST BELOW] If you haven't heard of the person, place,{6}, or if you don't know enough about that person or place to have an impression,{5}, just say so and we will move on.

[ROTATE BY QUESTION Q.1-Q.6]TOT FAV

TOT UNFAV

very fav

smwt fav

smwt unfav

very unfav

don’t know

never heard

1. __Barack Obama ................................................................51 47 30 21 13 34 2 02. __John Kerry ................................................................48 37 21 27 15 21 13 33. __Benjamin Netanyahu ................................34 16 15 19 9 7 27 234. __Hassan Rouhani ................................................................5 17 2 3 6 11 36 425. __Israel ................................................................68 16 34 34 11 5 14 16. __Iran................................................................12 73 4 7 26 47 14 2

The United States often conducts diplomatic relations with countries around the world. Now I am going to read you a list of countries. After I read the name of each country, I would like you to tell me how much you trust that country to live up to and abide by diplomatic agreements the U.S. negotiates with them. Do you trust [READ NAME FROM LIST] a great deal, some, not too much or not at all to live up to and abide by diplomatic agreements the United States makes with them?

[RANDOMIZE BY QUESTION Q.7-Q.14]TOT

TRUST

TOT DON’T TRUST

Great deal Some

Not much

Not at all

DK VOL

7. __Russia ................................................................ 44 54 4 40 26 28 28. __Iran................................................................................................15 83 2 13 23 60 29. __Israel ................................................................ 79 18 37 42 10 8 310. __China................................................................ 42 56 6 36 28 28 211. __Mexico................................................................ 69 29 15 54 16 13 212. __North Korea ................................................................7 90 1 6 14 77 313. __Great Britain ................................................................94 5 68 26 2 3 114. __South Korea ................................................................67 29 25 42 13 16 4

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National Survey – The Mellman Group, Inc. (January 21-23, 2014) 2

15. Which of the following countries do you think poses the biggest threat to the security of the United States? [ROTATE AND READ LIST]

North Korea ................................................................28Iran ................................................................................................23Russia ................................................................................................5Pakistan ................................................................................................6Iraq ................................................................................................6China ................................................................................................18Syria ................................................................................................6DK [VOL] ................................................................ 8

16. What kind of job has President Obama and his administration done when it comes to dealing with Iran? Have President Obama and his administration done an excellent, good, only fair or poor job when it comes to dealing with Iran?

Excellent ................................................................................................6Good................................................................................................24Only Fair ................................................................................................29Poor ................................................................................................37DK [VOL] ................................................................ 4TOTAL POSITIVE ................................................................30TOTAL NEGATIVE ................................................................66

17. As you may know, the United States and most other countries in the world have imposed economic sanctions on Iran to pressure it to end its efforts to develop nuclear weapons Do you favor or oppose the economic sanctions that the U.S. has placed on Iran? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?

Favor, strongly ................................................................68Favor, not so strongly ................................................................16Oppose, not so strongly................................................................5Oppose, strongly ................................................................6DK [VOL] ................................................................ 6TOTAL FAVOR ................................................................83TOTAL OPPOSE................................................................11

18. In your opinion, should the United States now [ROTATE] __strengthen economic sanctions on Iran, __reduce economic sanctions on Iran, or should sanctions remain at the same level they are now?

Strengthen ................................................................ 39Reduce................................................................................................14Remain the same ................................................................38DK [VOL] ................................................................ 9

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19. In the long run, which is more dangerous for the United States:[ROTATE STATEMENTS]__STATEMENT A: Allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons.OR__STATEMENT B: Targeted military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities to try and stop them from developing nuclear weapons

[IF STATEMENT A/B, ASK:] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?Statement A, strongly............................................... 47Statement A, not so strongly .................................... 7Statement B, not so strongly .................................... 11Statement B, strongly............................................... 26DK/Refused [VOL] ................................................. 9TOTAL STATEMENT A...................................... 54TOTAL STATEMENT B ...................................... 37

20. Which of the following should be the most important goal of the U.S. in dealing with Iran’s [ee-RAHN] nuclear program?[ROTATE STATEMENTS]__STATEMENT A: To prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it requires military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.OR__STATEMENT B: To avoid military strikes on Iran, even if it means allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.

[IF STATEMENT A/B, ASK:] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?Statement A, strongly............................................... 59Statement A, not so strongly .................................... 10Statement B, not so strongly .................................... 8Statement B, strongly............................................... 13DK [VOL]................................................................ 10TOTAL STATEMENT A...................................... 68TOTAL STATEMENT B ...................................... 21

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21. In trying to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, should the United States … [ROTATE STATEMENTS]__Allow Iran to keep its nuclear infrastructure and stockpiles of enriched uranium in place and lift economic sanctions against Iran so long as Iran agrees to not build nuclear weapons, limits futureuranium enrichment and submits to international inspections of its nuclear facilities.OR__Insist that Iran dismantles its nuclear infrastructure and give up the ability to build a nuclear weapon before any economic sanctions are lifted.

[IF ALLOW WITH INSPECTIONS/DISMANTLE NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE, ASK:] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?

Allow Iran to keep nuclear infrastructure & rely on inspections, strongly............................. 24Allow Iran to keep nuclear infrastructure & rely on inspections, not so strongly .................. 8Dismantle nuclear infrastructure, not so strongly ................................................................... 14Dismantle nuclear infrastructure, strongly.............................................................................. 49DK [VOL] .............................................................................................................................. 6ALLOW IRAN TO KEEP NUKE INFRASTRUCTURE/RELY ON INSPECTIONS . 32DISMANTLE NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................. 62

22. How much, if anything, have you heard about an interim agreement between the United States and Iran that places some temporary restraints on the pace of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for some relief from economic sanctions on Iran? Have you heard a great deal, some, not too much or nothing at all about this agreement?

A great deal ................................................................ 15Some ................................................................................................32Not too much................................................................29Nothing at all................................................................23DK [VOL] ................................................................ 1TOTAL HEARD ................................................................47TOTAL HADN’T HEARD ................................................................52

23. As you may know, the United States and five other world powers recently reached an interim agreement with Iran that would reduce some economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for a commitment by Iran to temporarily limit some parts of its nuclear program, while a final agreement is being negotiated. Do you favor or oppose this agreement? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?


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24. How likely do you think it is that Iran will live up to and abide by this interim agreement? Is it very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely that Iran will live up to and abide by this agreement?

Very likely ................................................................ 6Somewhat likely................................................................25Somewhat unlikely................................................................21Very unlikely ................................................................45DK [VOL] ................................................................ 3TOTAL LIKELY ................................................................31TOTAL UNLIKELY ................................................................66

[SPLIT SAMPLE J]25. Which of the following statements about the interim agreement with Iran comes closer to your point

of view:[ROTATE STATEMENTS]__STATEMENT A: The United States made the right decision by reducing sanctions and financial pressure in exchange for an agreement by Iran to put some temporary limits on its nuclear program, while a final agreement is being negotiated.OR__STATEMENT B: The United States should have required Iran to completely abandon its nuclear program before agreeing to reduce sanctions.


[SPLIT SAMPLE K]26. Which of the following statements about the interim agreement with Iran comes closer to your point

of view: [ROTATE STATEMENTS]__STATEMENT A: The United States made the right decision by reducing sanctions and financial pressure in exchange for an agreement by Iran to put some temporary limits on its nuclear program, while a final agreement is being negotiated.OR__STATEMENT B: The United States should have pushed for more concessions from Iran before agreeing to reduce sanctions.


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[RESUME ASKING EVERYBODY]27. As of right now, the Obama Administration has shared the agreement with Iran only with some

Members of Congress. Do you favor or oppose releasing the text of the entire deal to the public? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?


28. How much have you heard about legislation in Congress that could trigger new sanctions on Iran?Have you heard a great deal, some, not too much or nothing at all about this legislation?

A great deal ................................................................ 9Some ................................................................................................22Not too much................................................................31Nothing at all................................................................37DK [VOL] ................................................................ 2TOTAL HEARD ................................................................30TOTAL HADN’T HEARD ................................................................68

29. Just so we are on the same page, there is legislation in the Senate sponsored by 59 Senators from both parties that would trigger new sanctions on Iran if they cheat on the terms of the current interim agreement, fail to negotiate a final deal to eliminate their ability to make nuclear weapons, or if they are found to be involved in a terrorist act against the United States during nuclear talks. Do you favor or oppose this legislation? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?


Now I am going to read you a list of things that could happen if Iran is able to develop a nuclear weapon. After I read each, please tell me if that concerns you a great deal, some, not too much or not at all?

[RANDOMIZE BY QUESTION Q.30-Q.37]Great deal Some

Not much

Not at all

DK VOL

30. __Iran could give nuclear weapons to terrorist groups trying to attack the United States and our allies.............................................. 78 15 4 3 1

31. __Iran is developing nuclear-armed ballistic missiles that could enable them to launch a nuclear attack on the United States by 2015 .................................................................................................. 73 14 6 6 1

32. __A nuclear-armed Iran could launch nuclear weapons against Israel, our closest ally in the region.................................................. 70 20 5 4 1

33. __Allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons could embolden other countries to develop nuclear weapons, triggering an arms race in one of the most dangerous parts of the world....................... 71 18 6 4 1

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34. __ Iran could use nuclear weapons to attack American troops in the Middle-East ................................................................................ 75 15 4 5 1

35. __ Iran could become a regional superpower that is even harder to deter than it is now ....................................................................... 66 21 8 4 1

36. __ America’s influence around the world would be undermined .... 58 21 11 8 137. __Iran would have the capability to menace oil suppliers,

causing the price of oil and gasoline to increase, threatening the global economy ................................................................................ 64 21 8 6 1

38. Now I am going to read you statement by supporters and opponents of increasing economic pressure against Iran:

[ROTATE STATEMENTS]__Supporters of the bipartisan bill say it strengthens diplomacy and increases our chances of peacefully stopping Iran. In fact, it is Congressional sanctions that finally pushed Iran into negotiations, and it is pressure that will keep them there and convince them to compromise. Given Iran’s history of lying about its nuclear program and violating agreements, Iran cannot be trusted. Their threats to walk away from talks are not new and not credible – they need a deal more than we do. Unfortunately, the “interim” agreement has too many loopholes, relieves financial pressure prematurely, and undercuts the leverage we need to end the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. Passing legislation laying out sanctions should Iran cheat, or refuse a final agreement, balances the interim deal, supports our diplomacy and will help get a good final deal.OR__Opponents of the legislation say the interim agreement negotiated between the United States and Iran, and the current diplomatic process to reach a final agreement, is the best way to ensure that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons in the future, and those pushing for more sanctions on Iran are putting the country on a path to war. Part of the agreement states that no new sanctions are to be imposed while the permanent agreement is being negotiated. Therefore, new sanctions now will cause this deal to fall apart and Iran will continue developing nuclear weapons. Moreover, the United States risks losing support from our allies who made these sanctions successful. We can always restore and strengthen sanctions against Iran if things change, but we should give this agreement a chance to work first.

Now that you’ve heard arguments on both sides of the issue, do you favor or oppose this legislation triggering new sanctions against Iran? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?

Favor, strongly ................................................................49Favor, not so strongly................................................................14Oppose, not so strongly................................................................11Oppose, strongly ................................................................17DK [VOL]................................................................ 9TOTAL FAVOR ................................................................63TOTAL OPPOSE................................................................28

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[SPLIT SAMPLE J]39. Which of the following statements about Iran comes closer to your point of view:

[ROTATE STATEMENTS]__STATEMENT A: Iran is using these negotiations to stall as it continues to develop its ability to make nuclear weapons.OR__STATEMENT B: Iran is negotiating in good faith and will eventually give up their ability to make nuclear weapons.


[SPLIT SAMPLE K]40. Which of the following statements about Iran comes closer to your point of view:

[ROTATE STATEMENTS]__STATEMENT A: Iran is using these negotiations to stall as it continues to develop its ability to make nuclear weapons.OR__STATEMENT B: Iran is negotiating in good faith and may eventually give up their ability to make nuclear weapons

[IF STATEMENT A/B, ASK:] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?Statement A, strongly............................................... 59Statement A, not so strongly .................................... 11Statement B, not so strongly .................................... 10Statement B, strongly............................................... 11DK [VOL]................................................................ 9TOTAL STATEMENT A...................................... 70TOTAL STATEMENT B ...................................... 21TIP

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[RESUME ASKING EVERYONE]Now I am going to read you a list of actions that some people have suggested Iran should be required to take while it is negotiating with the United States on its nuclear program. After I read each, please tell me whether you would favor or oppose requiring Iran to take that action before the U.S. signs a final agreement with Iran on lifting sanctions [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?

[RANDOMIZE BY QUESTION Q.40-Q.46]TOT FAV

TOT OPP

Str Favor

NSS Favor

NSSOpp

Str Opp

DK VOL

41. __ Iran should be required to cease all acts of terrorism against the United States................................94 3 88 6 1 2 3

42. __ Iran should be required to freeze all efforts to develop long-range ballistic missiles while negotiations are taking place ............................................................91 6 83 8 4 3 3

43. __ Iran should be required to recognize the right of Israel to exist ................................................................86 9 74 12 5 5 5

44. __ Iran should be required to allow international inspections of all Iranian nuclear facilities ................................95 3 87 8 2 1 3

45. __ Iran should be required to cease all efforts to enrich uranium while negotiations are taking place................................................................................................85 11 77 8 6 5 3

46. __ Iran should be required to place all nuclear materials currently possessed by Iran under the control of international monitors ................................ 88 8 76 12 5 3 3

47. __ Iran should be required to destroy all centrifuges that can be used to enrich uranium to the point it can be used in nuclear weapons ................................83 12 73 10 7 5 5

48. Which of the following statements comes closer to your point of view: [ROTATE STATEMENTS]__ STATEMENT A: For over 15 years, Congress has been the prime mover of sanctions on Iran and should approve a final deal before sanctions are lifted, because it will help ensure we get the best possible deal and do not leave Iran with the ability to make nuclear weapons in the future.OR__STATEMENT B: President Obama should have the power to make an agreement with Iran,without going back to Congress to repeal sanctions, because meddling by Congress could endanger negotiations between the United States and Iran, nullifying the current deal and enabling Iran to re-start its weapons program.

[IF STATEMENT A/B, ASK:] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?Statement A, strongly............................................... 58Statement A, not so strongly .................................... 11Statement B, not so strongly .................................... 8Statement B, strongly............................................... 17DK/Refused [VOL] ................................................. 6TOTAL STATEMENT A...................................... 69TOTAL STATEMENT B ...................................... 25

THANK YOU. THE FEW REMAINING QUESTIONS ARE FOR STATISTICAL PURPOSES ONLY.

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49. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or something else? [IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT ASK:] Do you consider yourself a strong (Republican/Democrat) or a not so strong (Republican/Democrat)? [IF INDEPENDENT ASK:] Would you say that you lean more toward the Republicans or more toward the Democrats?

strong Republican..........................................................19 31not so strong Republican ...............................................5independent leans Republican .......................................6Independent ................................................................28independent leans Democratic.......................................6not so strong Democrat..................................................6strong Democrat ............................................................23 35[VOL] dk/na/other.........................................................6

50. Do you consider yourself very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative or very conservative? [IF MODERATE, ASK:] Do you tend to lean toward the liberal or conservative side?

very liberal................................................................ 11 31somewhat liberal............................................................15moderate leans liberal....................................................5moderate ........................................................................25moderate leans conservative..........................................5somewhat conservative..................................................18very conservative...........................................................19 41[VOL] DK/ref ...............................................................3

51. What is your age? [CODE ACTUAL AGE. REFUSED=99] ______18-29..............................................................................1230-39..............................................................................1440-49..............................................................................1750-59..............................................................................2560+............................................................................. 32Dk/refused [VOL] .........................................................0

52. What was the last level of schooling you completed?less than high school graduate.......................................3high school graduate......................................................19some college ................................................................25college graduate.............................................................35post-graduate ................................................................17ref...................................................................................1

53. Are you Latino, Hispanic, or of Spanish descent?yes..................................................................................8no ...................................................................................92DK/ref [VOL] .......................................................... 1

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54. Are you black, white, Asian, Native American or some other race?black ..............................................................................11white ..............................................................................80Asian..............................................................................1Native American............................................................0other...............................................................................5DK/unsure [VOL] .................................................... 0Refused [VOL]......................................................... 2

55. If you were asked to use one of these given names for the economic class you belong to, which would you say you belong in—upper class, upper middle-class, middle class, working class, or lower class?

upper class ................................................................ 2upper middle-class.........................................................15middle-class................................................................53working class ................................................................24lower class ................................................................ 4[VOL] don’t know ........................................................2[VOL] other................................................................ 0

56. Are you Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, Mormon, or something else? [IF SOMETHING ELSE] Are you Christian or non-Christian?

Protestant .......................................................................29Catholic..........................................................................22Jewish ............................................................................3Mormon .........................................................................2[IF SOMETHING ELSE]Christian ........................................................................23Non-Christian ................................................................10[VOL] DK/refused ........................................................12

57. How often do you attend religious services—more than weekly, weekly, a few times a month, seldom, or never?

more than weekly ..........................................................10weekly............................................................................30few times a month .........................................................14seldom............................................................................23never ..............................................................................13dk/refused ......................................................................8

58. And last, what is your zip code? ______

Thank you for answering these questions.

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Tip Mellman Iran Survey Jan 24 2014

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Transcript of Tip Mellman Iran Survey Jan 24 2014