Timber Prices and Forest Products Market: A Look at the … · 2019-04-05 · Timber Prices and...
Transcript of Timber Prices and Forest Products Market: A Look at the … · 2019-04-05 · Timber Prices and...
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Timber Prices and Forest
Products Market: A Look at the
Underlying Trends and Future
Outlook
Sayeed R. Mehmood
The Ohio State University
Ohio River Valley Woodlands and Wildlife Workshop
March 30, 2019
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The Plan….
We will take a look at some analysis of historical timber price data.
The data will be mostly from Ohio, with some (very limited) data from Indiana for comparison.
We will also have a quick look at forest products market outlook.
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The Methods….
• Ohio historical timber price data were collected from the Timber Price Report published twice a year.
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Methods, contd.
• Indiana timber price data were collected from the Forest Products Price Report and Trend Analysis
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Methods, contd.
Nominal prices were then converted to real dollar values by using the Producer Price Index (PPI).
Economic outlook indicators were collected from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) web site by the St. Louis Fed.
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Stumpage Prices
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Walnut Stumpage
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Walnut Statewide Average Stumpage Prices, 1960-2018
Nominal Price, State Real Price, State 3-Year Moving Average
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Walnut Stumpage: Between Season and Same Season Percent Change
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Per
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geWalnut Stumpage Prices: Percent Change
Percent Change, From Prev. Season Percent Change, From Same Season
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White Oak Stumpage
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White Oak Statewide Average Stumpage Prices, 1960-2018
Nominal Price, State Real Price, State 3-Year Moving Average
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White Oak Stumpage: Between Season and Same Season Percent Change
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Per
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Percent Change Percent Change, Same Season
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Red Oak Stumpage
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Red Oak Statewide Average Stumpage Prices, 1960-2018
Nominal Price, State Real Price, State 3-Year Moving Average
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Red Oak Stumpage: Between Season and Same Season Percent Change
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Per
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Percent Change Percent Change, Same Season
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Cherry Stumpage
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Black Cherry Statewide Average Stumpage Prices, 1960-2018
Nominal Price, State Real Price, State 3-Year Moving Average
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Black Cherry Stumpage: Between Season and Same Season Percent Change
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Percent Change Percent Change, Same Season
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Hard Maple Stumpage
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Hard Maple Statewide Average Stumpage Prices, 1960-2018
Nominal Price, State Real Price, State 3-Year Moving Average
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Hard Maple Stumpage: Between Season and Same Season Percent Changes
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Percent Change Percent Change, Same Season
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Sawlog Prices
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Walnut Sawlog Real Prices by Grade
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Walnut Sawlog Real Prices for Different Grades
Prime #1 Common #2 Common Blocking
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White Oak Sawlog Real Prices by Grade
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White Oak Sawlog Real Prices
Prime Real #1 Real #2 Real Blocking Real
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Red Oak Sawlog Real Prices by Grade
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Red Oak Sawlog Real Prices
Prime Real #1 Real #2 Real Blocking Real
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Black Cherry Sawlog Real Prices by Grade
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Black Cherry Sawlog Real Prices
Prime Real #1 Real #2 Real Blocking Real
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Hard Maple Sawlog Real Prices by Grade
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Hard Maple Sawlog Real Prices
Prime Real #1 Real #2 Real Blocking Real
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Comparison with Indiana
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Ohio and Indiana Real Prices for Walnut Prime Grade and #2 Common
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Ohio and Indiana Walnut Prime Grade and #2 Common Real Prices
IN Prime R OH Prime R IN #2 R OH #2 R
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Ohio and Indiana Real Prices for White Oak Prime Grade and #2 Common Sawlogs
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Ohio and Indiana White Oak Prime Grade and #2 Common Real Prices
IN Prime R OH Prime R IN #2 R OH #2 R
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Ohio and Indiana Real Prices for Red Oak Prime Grade and #2 Common Sawlogs
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Ohio and Indiana Red Oak Prime Grade and #2 Common Real Prices
IN Prime R OH Prime R IN #2 R OH #2 R
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Ohio and Indiana Real Prices for Prime Grade and #2 Common Sawlogs
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1000
1200
1400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
Rea
l 20
15
Do
llars
Year
Ohio and Indiana Hard Maple Prime Grade and #2 Common Real Prices
IN Prime R OH Prime R IN #2 R OH #2 R
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Economic Outlook
Source: Oregon Forest Products Industry Directory
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Each million board feet of logs harvested and processed into wood products (except furniture) resulted in:
Employment of 1.2 loggers.
Employment for 7.2 other people.
$518,454 in wages and benefits.
$568,472 in total value added.
$1.5 million in economic activity throughout the state’s economy.
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What to Watch Out For
The housing market—showing some signs of cooling.
Chinese and European economies.
Trade wars, tariffs, and trade talks.
Stability and predictability in U.S. government actions.
And, of course, we must not forget….Twitter!
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Sayeed R. Mehmood, PhD
Associate Professor
Natural Resource Economics
School of Environment and Natural Resources
2021 Coffey Road
Columbus, OH 43210
Phone: (614) 688 2211
Email: [email protected]