Tim Stonor Predictive analytics using Space Syntax technology
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Transcript of Tim Stonor Predictive analytics using Space Syntax technology
Predictive analyticsFor urban planning, building design & spatial economics
Future Cities WorkshopSingapore
11th March 2014
Tim StonorArchitect & Urban Planner
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
1. Resource availability Scarce & diminishing
3. Future visioning Fanciful & un-evidenced
6. Consultation Problematic & uncollaborative
7. Decision-taking Hesitant
5. Impact forecasting Inaccurate
4. Financial backing Short-term & unaccountable
Urban planning in the 21st Century Some challenges
2. Data integration Overloaded & disconnected
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
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y = .784x + 2.147, R-squared: .589
Spatial accessibility
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Spatial accessibility
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y = 1.235x + 1.048, R-squared: .702
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Research shows that 60-80% of movement flows are due to the structure of the network, measured by spatial accessibility. 研究表明 60-80%的交通受到网络结构影响,可采用空间可达性来度量。
More accessible places get more movement.更可达的场所吸引更多交通流量。
Key discovery #1 Layout influences human behaviour关键发现# 1 布局影响人类行为
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Suzhou 苏州
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Y = .013 + .394 * X; R^2 = .722Spatial Accessibility
Veh
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72% correlation72%的相关性
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Courtesy of The TLRN Central London Pedestrian Study by Atkins
Key discovery #2 Spatial layout distributes land use关键发现# 2 的空间布局分配土地使用
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Area 5
Area 6
Area 3
Area 2
Perth, Australia 澳大利亚珀斯Property crime analysis财产犯罪分析
Key discovery #3 Spatial layout influences crime & safety关键发现 #3 空间布局影响犯罪与安全
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Value of property security 财产安全的价值
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UrbanBuzz城市网站
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
£
Int
Centre vitality
中心活力
%
Street quality
街道品质
Property value
房地产价值
Residential security
住宅区安全
Personal safety
个人安全
Urban layout 城市布局
Key discovery #4 Spatial layout determines land value关键发现 #4 空间布局决定土地价值
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Connected layout 建议的布局Dislocated layout 破碎的布局In
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High accessibility score 高通达性Low accessibility score 低通达性
Dislocated layout破碎的布局
Connected layout建议的布局
Difference差别
IRR内部收益率
11% 14% + 27%
NPV净现值
£47 Million £ 145 Million + £98 Million
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Disconnected grids increase travel emissions间断的路网增加旅行的排放量
Key discovery #5 Spatial layout affects carbon footprint
关键发现# 5 空间布局影响碳痕迹
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
The continuously connected city The largest object of human creation
A natural asset with enormous intrinsic value
Transaction machine
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
A process of scientific co-creation 共同创新互利的过程
UCL Space SyntaxFundamental research
Teaching
Technology development
Space Syntax LimitedConsulting
Studio
Academy
Laboratory
SoftwareWorks
People Ideas Questions
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Trafalgar Square, London
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Trafalgar Square, London Low levels of space use
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Trafalgar Square, London Pedestrian survey
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Trafalgar Square, London Spatial accessibility model
Spatial Accessibility
High
Low
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Before After
Trafalgar Square, London Spatial accessibility analysis
Spatial Accessibility
High
Low
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Trafalgar Square, London Artist’s impression
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
First day of opening Trafalgar Square, London
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Trafalgar Square, London New central staircase
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Observe Explain
Forecast Deliver
Trafalgar Square, London Spatial design process
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Nottingham Old Market Square
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Millennium Bridge, London
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Olympic Park London 2012
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
London 2012 Olympic Games Opening Ceremony
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
London 2012 Olympic Games Opening Ceremony
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Elephant & Castle Southern Crossing
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Cycling Science-based creation of cycling policy and design proposals
Weekday
Weekend
Existing cycle infrastructure around Euston station
Observed cyclist flows around Euston station (weekday and weekend)
Spatial accessibility model, Euston station
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
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2Urban expansion Spatial accessibility in 2013
Spatial accessibility
High
Low
Railway station
2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km
2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km
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Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
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2Urban expansion Spatial accessibility in 2038
Spatial accessibility
High
Low
Railway station
2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km
2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km
111111111
111111111000000000
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Darwin, Australia CBD Expansion
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Tim Stonor & Ed ParhamIntroduction to Space Syntax Harvard University Graduate School of Design Space Syntax © 2011
لجدة المدني المركز مشروعالموقع تحليل
الخطة مكوناتالرئيسية
Jeddah Waterfront 500Ha masterplan
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Consultation
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Abu Dhabi 阿布扎比
Dubai 迪拜
Sharjah 沙迦
Space Syntax © 2013
United Arab Emirates阿拉伯联合大公国
Strategic planning Using spatial network as the foundation 策略性规划 使用空间网络作为基础
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Informal settlement Evidence-based, adaptable regeneration plans
临时定居点 基于论证的,有适应力的再生规划
Jeddah – Saudi Arabia 吉达 - 沙特阿拉伯
High intervention 高程度介入
Low intervention 低程度介入
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Existing Changchun 长春 Proposed growth 规划深入
Spatial Accessibility
low
high
medium
Approx. 40km
Strategic planning Spatial distribution of urbanisation策略性规划 城市化的空间分布
Changping 昌平
Shunyi 顺义
Huairou 怀柔
Miyun 密云
Pinggu 平谷
Tongzhou 通州
Daxing 大兴Fangshan 房山
Mentougou 门头沟
Beijing
中国 北京 Beijing - China
Urban sprawl Integrated urban-rural development城市扩张 城乡综合发展
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
500kmScale of journey
100km 50km
UK Spatial Infrastructure ModelDescribing spatial accessibility from high in red, then orange and yellow to low in green then blue.
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
0. Spatial Layout 空间结构
1. Movement 人们的活动
2. Land Use 土地使用
3. Crime & Safety
4. Land Value
5. Carbon Emissions
Integrated Urban Model
People1. Behaviour2. Wealth3. Health4. Safety5. Cultural identity
Resources1. Materials2. Energy3. Finance4. Utilities supply5. Waste handling
Urban Form1. Spatial Form2. Physical Form- capacity- location- condition- value
dActions
v3
dDecision-taking
Environment1. Sun 2. Wind3. Rainfall4. Groundform5. Biodiversity
Data Mapping
Data Quantification
Visualise Urban Data CollectiveIntegrated platform for performance dataHow is the place working?
dUncertainty
dIdeas for changeOpportunities & Constraints
Creation of Conceptual Options
Conceive Urban StrategyIntegrated urban policy and practiceWhat are the opportunities for change?
dConsultationForecast Urban Forecast ModelScenario testing & performance forecastingHow will performance be affected by change?
Simulation & Optimisation of Options
Development of Preferred Option
dAwarenessExplain Urban Performance ModelIntegrated urban diagnostics: spatial analyticsWhy does the place work the way it does?
Urban Diagnosis
Issues, Objectives & Principles
Urban Baseline Study
Urban Impact Analysis
User interface/state
Behaviour change
Decision groups
Data
Data inputs
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3
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6
IntegratedUrbanModel
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
2. Data integration Spatial Accessibility Framework
3. Future visioning Dynamic Urban Modelling
6. Consultation Engaging people around “place”
7. Decision-taking Bold but risk reduced
5. Impact forecasting Focus on human transaction
4. Financial backing Urban Value analysis
Urban planning in the 21st Century Addressing challenges
1. Resource availability Integrated Places Strategy
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Tim Stonor Architect & Urban Planner
[email protected]@Tim_Stonor
www.spacesyntax.com
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Sims AveGeylang Road
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014
MacPherson Road
Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics
UK Singapore Future Cities WorkshopSpace Syntax © 2014