Tight oil and shale gas – global implications€¦ · Global supply growth and shale gas Bcf/d...
Transcript of Tight oil and shale gas – global implications€¦ · Global supply growth and shale gas Bcf/d...
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Tight oil and shale gas –global implicationsWashington, March 2013Christof Rühl, Chief Economist, BP
© BP 2012
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Tight oil and shale gas: global implications
Global energy trendsGlobal energy trends
- Characteristics
- Implications
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
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Population, income and energy growth
128 100
BillionPopulation GDP
Trillion $2011 PPP Billion toePrimary energy
9
12 OECDnon-OECD
6
8 OECDNon-OECD
75
100 OECDNon-OECD
64 50
0
3
0
2
0
25
© BP 2013
01990 2010 2030
01990 2010 2030
01990 2010 2030
Energy Outlook 2030
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Industrialisation drives energy growth
Billion toe
18 18
By primary use By fuelBy regionBillion toe Billion toe
18
12
15
18
12
15
18
P 12
15
18
HydroNuclear
Renew.*
Non-OECD6
9
12
Non-OECD
6
9
12 Power generation Coal
GIndustry 6
9
12Coal
Gas
OECD
0
3
6
OECD
0
3
6
OtherTransport Oil
GasIndustry
0
3
6
Oil
Gas
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
01990 2010 2030
01990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030
*Includes biofuels
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Fuel shares and energy pricesShares of world primary energy
50%
Energy prices$2011/boe
40%
50% Oil
Coal80
100
120 Oil - BrentGas - basketCoal - basket
20%
30%
Gas 40
60
80
0%
10% HydroNuclear Renewables* 0
20
40
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
0%1965 1980 1995 2010 2025
*Includes biofuels1965 1980 1995 2010
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Energy efficiency improvements
0 5
Energy intensity by regionToe per thousand $2011 GDP (PPP)
20050
Energy and GDPBillion toe Trillion $2011 (PPP)
0.4
0.5
China
US
150
200
40
50
0.2
0.3100
20
30
GDP (RHS)
0.0
0.1 WorldEU*
0
50
0
10Energy
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030*Euro4 (France, Italy, Germany, UK) pre-1970
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Energy supply growth
17
Demand SupplyBillion toe
16
17
NuclearHydro
Renew.*2030 level
14
15
Other
12
13
2011 OECD Non 2011 Oil Natural Coal Non
TightOther
Shale
© BP 2013
2011 OECD Non-OECD
2011 Oil Natural gas
Coal Non-fossil
Energy Outlook 2030
*Includes biofuels
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Tight oil and shale gas: global implications
Global energy trendsGlobal energy trends
- Characteristics
- Implications
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
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Tight oil and shale gas: resources and production
60Billion toe
Current resources Production in 2030
0 9Billion toe
40
60 GasOil
0.6
0.9
0
20
0.0
0.3
0
sia
Pac
ific
. Am
eric
a
S. &
C.
Am
eric
a
Afri
ca
Eur
ope
&
Eur
asia
ddle
Eas
t 0.0
sia
Pac
ific
. Am
eric
a
S. &
C.
Am
eric
a
Afri
ca
Eur
ope
&
Eur
asia
ddle
Eas
t
© BP 2013
As N Mi
Energy Outlook 2030
As N Mi
Resources data © OECD/IEA 2012
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US tight oil and shale gas: infrastructure requirements
Onshore oil & gas rigs 2011Thousands
Oil wells drilled and output
515
Mb/d
2 0
Thousands
4
5
12
15 2012* 20112010 Output (RHS)1.5
2.0
2
3
6
9
0.5
1.0
0
1
0
30.0
© BP 2013
Bakken Canada Colombia
Energy Outlook 2030
*Annualised from 1Q-3Q data
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Global supply growth and tight oil
10%10
Liquids supply by type
45%105
Mb/dTight oil output
% of totalMb/d
8%
10%
8
10 ChinaRussiaS. AmericaN America
45%
75
90
105OPEC NGLs
OPEC crude
OPEC share (RHS)% of total
(RHS)
4%
6%
4
6N. America
45
60 Biofuels
Oil sands
0%
2%
0
2
30%0
15
30 Tight oil
Other non-OPECNGLs
© BP 2013
%2000 2010 2020 2030
%1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Energy Outlook 2030
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Global supply growth and shale gas
Bcf/dGas production by type and region Shale gas production
Bcf/d
400
500 Non-OECD otherNon-OECD shaleOECD shaleOECD th 12%
18%
60
80 RoWChinaEurope & EurasiaC d & M i
200
300 OECD other
6%
12%
40
Canada & MexicoUS
0
100
0%
6%
0
20 % of total (RHS)
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
1990 2000 2010 2020 20300%0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
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Tight oil and shale gas: global implications
Global energy trendsGlobal energy trends
- Characteristics
- Implications
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
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Unconventional oil and the call on OPEC
369
Mb/d
Call on OPEC & spare capacityMb/d
Unconventionals share of net global supply growth
100%
33
36
6
9 Spare capacityCall on OPEC (RHS)
75%
100% Biofuels
Oil sands
30
33
3
6
50%
Tight oil
27
30
0
3
0%
25%
© BP 2013
2000 2010 2020 20300%
2000-10 2010-20 2020-30
Energy Outlook 2030
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Gas trade and market integration
20%80
Bcf/dLNG exports LNG diversification
10
15%
20%
60
80
% f t t l
8
10 Suppliers per importerCustomers per exporter
10%40
% of total consumption
(RHS)4
6
0%
5%
0
20LNG
0
2
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
0%01990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
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Tight oil and shale gas uncertaintiesShare of global supply growthRange of tight oil forecasts
(excludes NGLs)Mb/d Bcf/d
Range of shale gas forecasts
8
10 RangeBP
50%
75% Shale gasTight oil
80
100
120 RangeBP
4
6
25%
50%
40
60
80
0
2
0%
25%
0
20
40
© BP 2013
02010 2020 2030
Energy Outlook 2030
0%2000-10 2010-20 2020-30
02010 2020 2030
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Oil and gas: reserves and production
EuropeN. America
FSU
Middle East
Asia Pacific
50%% share of global totalKey:
S. & C. America Africa
Asia Pacific
0%
2011 reserves2030 output
Africa
Net importers 2011
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
Net exporters 2011Net importers 2011
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Energy imbalances: import profiles
60
Energy imbalances to GDP ratioEnergy imbalancesChina EU US
300
Mtoe Toe per $Mln GDP PPP
20
40
60 ChinaUSEU
0
300
-20
0-600
-300
OilG
-80
-60
-40
-1,200
-900
90 10 30 90 10 30 90 10 30GasCoal
© BP 2013
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Energy Outlook 2030
199
20 203
199
20 203
199
20 203
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Energy imbalances: export profilesEnergy imbalances to GDP ratioEnergy imbalances
Saudi Arabia Africa RussiaMtoe Toe per $Mln GDP PPP
1000
1200Saudi Arabia
Russia600
800OilGas
400
600
800 Africa400
Coal
0
200
400
0
200
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
© BP 2013
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Energy Outlook 2030
199
201
203
199
201
203
199
201
203
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Energy and carbon emissionsCO2 emissions and primary energy
Billion tonnes CO2
Growth of CO2 emissions % p.a.Billion toe
15
18
40
50 Emissions from energy use
Primary energy (RHS)
6%
8%1970-1990
1990-2010
2010 2030
Gas6
9
12
20
30 (RHS)
2%
4%2010-2030
Oil
Gas
0
3
6
0
10
2%
0%
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
001970 1990 2010 2030
-2%China EU US
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Conclusion
4%% p.a. Economic growth needs
energy
3%Income
per
gy
Competition and innovation are the key to meeting this
1%
2%
Popul
capita need
− energy efficiency
0%
Population
Economic Efficiency New supply
− new supplies
Wide ranging implications
© BP 2013
growthy
gainspp y
Energy Outlook 2030
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January 2013
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Energy: prices demand growth
2000
Energy and GDPBillion toe Trillion $2011
Energy prices$2011/boe
150
200
40
50
80
100
120 Oil - BrentGas - basketCoal - basket
10020
30
GDP (RHS)40
60
80
0
50
0
10
Energy0
20
40
© BP 201323
1970 1990 2010 20301965 1980 1995 2010
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The power sector leads primary energy growthGrowth by sector and fuel,
2011-2030Growth by sector and region,
2011-2030Billion toe Billion toe
2
3 HydroNuclearRenew.
2
3RoW
Middl E t
0
1 ElectricityGasBiofuels0
1Middle East
China & India
-1
Tran
spor
t
Indu
stry
Oth
er
Pow
er OilCoal-1
Tran
spor
t
Indu
stry
Oth
er
Pow
er
d aOECD
© BP 2013
Final energy use Inputs to powerFinal energy use Inputs to power
Energy Outlook 2030
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Emerging economies dominate energy production
18FSU
Billion toe18
Billion toe
12
15FSU
S&C America
N. America12
15
6
9 Middle East
EuropeNon-OECD6
9
Non-OECD
0
3 Asia Pacific
AfricaOECD
0
3OECD
© BP 2013
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Energy Outlook 2030
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
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Energy: prices demand growth
2000
Energy and GDPBillion toe Trillion $2011
Energy prices$2011/boe
150
200
40
50
80
100
120 Oil - BrentGas - basketCoal - basket
10020
30
GDP (RHS)40
60
80
0
50
0
10
Energy0
20
40
© BP 201326
1970 1990 2010 20301965 1980 1995 2010
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Shale gas: regional growth
120
Bcf/d ChinaBcf/d N. America Bcf/d EU
Sources of gas supply, by region
80
100
120 Net pipeline importsNet LNG importsShale gas production80
100
120
80
100
120
40
60Other domestic production
40
60
40
60
-20
0
20
-20
0
20
-20
0
20
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
201990 2010 2030
Energy Outlook 2030
201990 2010 2030
201990 2010 2030
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Global gas balance
500
Bcf/dDemand Supply
450
500
Other non-OECD
2030 levelOECD
350
400
Other OECDMiddle East
Chinanon OECD
Non-OECD
OECD
250
300N. America
Other OECD
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
2011 OECD Non-OECD 2011 Non-shale Shale
Energy Outlook 2030
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Coal consumption
O
Coal demand by regionBillion toe
5
Billion toeCoal demand by sector
5 Oil
IndustryChina China Chi
4
5
China China4
5
Industry
Other
y
India India
China
India
China
India2
3China
India
China
India2
3y
Power
OECD
India
OECD
Other Non-OECD
OECD0
1OECD
Other non-OECD
OECD0
1Power
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
1990 2000 2010 2020 203001990 2000 2010 2020 2030
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Non-fossil fuels
2 0
Billion toeOECD
2 0
Non-OECDBillion toe
1.5
2.0RenewablesBiofuelsHydro
1.5
2.0
1.0
HydroNuclear
Renewables in power
1.0
0.0
0.5Renewables in power
Biofuels0.0
0.5
© BP 2013
0.01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0.01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Energy Outlook 2030
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Growth of renewables in powerRenewable power
% p.a.% share
Share of power generationGrowth 2011-30, and share of power
15%
20%Nuclear
1970-2000 12%
15%
20%
25% Growth (RHS)Share 2011Share 2030
Non-OECD5%
10%
R bl
6%
9%
10%
15%
OECD0%
5%
2000 2010 2020 2030
Renewables2000-2030
0%
3%
0%
5%
OECD Other Non OECD
© BP 2013
2000 2010 2020 20301970 1980 1990 2000
OECD Europe
Other OECD
Non-OECD
Energy Outlook 2030
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Power generation and electricity useElectricity share of final consumption
50%
Shares of power output
100%
40%
50%
Other 80%
100%
NuclearOil
20%
30%Industry
40%
60% HydroGas
0%
10%Transport
0%
20%
Renew.
Coal
© BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030
0%1990 2010 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030
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High oil prices are reducing oil’s share of primary energy
100%
Oil share in sector
12
Fuel economy of new carsLitres per 100 km
75%
100%
PowerOther
8
10
12 EUUS light vehiclesChina
50%IndustryTransport
4
6
8
0%
25%
0
2
4
© BP 2013
1965 1978 1991 2004 2017 2030
Energy Outlook 2030
01995 2005 2015 2025