Tidal Power Projections Tom Beagan 24 th February 2005.
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Transcript of Tidal Power Projections Tom Beagan 24 th February 2005.
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Tidal Power Projections
Tom Beagan
24th February 2005
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The Tidal Resource
The UK has a significant proportion of the world’s tidal power
It can be harnessed in 2 forms:
• Tidal Barrage
• Tidal Stream
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Tidal Barrage• Requires a tidal basin
– at least 5m tidal difference
• Few suitable sites in the world
• La Rance (right) only large one, 240MW capacity
• Potential for an 8460 MW barrage across the Severn
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Tidal Barrage
Benefits• Continuous electricity source• Pollution free (except construction)• Low cost after completion
Limitations• High capital cost (resulting in high cost of electricity)• Environmental impact: sediment flows, species migration• Hinders navigation• Visual impact• Can’t control peak generation time
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Tidal Stream
• The newer method of tidal generation
• Devices placed in strong tidal streams around UK
• Possible devices: – ‘Seagen’ (right) up to
1MW– Stingray (aerofoil)
150KW
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Tidal Stream
Benefits• Small environmental and visual impact• Large Potential resource in UK waters• No pollution
Limitations• Technology in early stage of development• Devices expensive = expensive electricity• Tidal streams are a long way from large populations• Electricity loss through transmission• Low load factor 39% average (carbon trust)
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The Future for Tidal Barrage
Artists impression of the proposed Severn barrage
Hmmm!
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The Future for Tidal Barrage
There are 3 large barrage proposals in UK• The Severn – 8640 MW by far the largest in UK• The Mersey – 700MW• Orkney Churchill Barriers – 300MWSeveral smaller proposals• Duddon estuary (Cumbria) – 100MW• Wyre estuary (Lancashire) – 63.6 MW• Conwy (North Wales) – 33.4 MW• Loughor (Swansea) – 5 MW
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Why aren’t they being built?• Mainly financial reasons
– Severn 8.6GW scheme ‘uneconomical’– High capital costs and few jobs after completion– Electricity will be too expensive
• Environmental reasons– Large opposition from pressure groups– Extent of possible damage unknown– Big risk
• Turn towards Tidal Stream– Interest is building– Acquiring more funding and investment
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What can we expect from barrage?
• Unlikely to be any sizeable schemes between now and 2030 except maybe Orkney (existing barrier)
To increase likelihood• Need a reduction in capital costs• Improvement in power capture efficiency• Possible tidal lagoon in Severn? FOEProjection• 2010 – 0 MW• 2015 – 0 MW• 2020 – Up to 300 MW if Orkney gets go ahead• 2030 – 300 MW
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The Future for Tidal Stream
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The Future for Tidal Stream
The future is bright!• Size of resource 22 TWH/yr most recent prediction• Most advanced design is double turbine ‘seagen’ capable
of over 1 MW capacity• 300 KW single turbine being tested in Bristol Channel
currently outperforming expectations by 27%
Problem?• High cost of technology currently over £2M for a single
unit• Funding gap, businesses can’t afford to build prototypes
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The Future for Tidal Stream
Solution• Aug ’04 Marine Renewables Development Fund
to be set up• Grants of £5M to suitable investors
Result• 1 MW prototype Tests and technological improvements• Grid connected ‘farm’ of 3-5 devices Tests• Tidal farm will grow to 20+ devices Tests• Several farms will be created in different sites • Improved technology will bring prices down, large growth
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Tidal Stream Projections
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Tidal Stream Projections
Carbon trust total tidal stream extractable:• 22 TWh/year• That requires a 2.5 GW supply• This will need 6435 double turbines (LF 39%)
Can we do this by 2030?• That’s 257 Seagen a year from now until 2030
I don’t think so!!!
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What can we expect?• 2010 – 1 Seagen (1MW) probably grid installed
– 0.39 MW = 0.01 PJ
• 2015 – 25 Seagen grid operational– 9.75 MW = 0.31 PJ
• 2020 – 100 operational– 39 MW = 1.23 PJ
Capital cost cheaper, Each unit now 1.5 MW • 2025 – 350 operational (around 50 per year)
– 205 MW = 6.46 PJ
• 2030 – 750 operational (around 80 per year)– 439 MW = 13.8 PJ
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Stream plus Barrage
• Orkney tidal barrage (300MW) likely by 2020
• Load factor around 23%• Therefore 69 MW = 2.18 PJ
2020 – 3.14 PJ2025 – 8.46 PJ2030 – 16 PJBut this is an optimistic projection!
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Conclusion
• Large margin for error• Projections rely on
results of testing• Transmission costs not
accounted for• Hydrogen?• Main barrier FINANCIAL