Tidal Creek Ecosystems: Sentinel Habitats for Assessing ...
Transcript of Tidal Creek Ecosystems: Sentinel Habitats for Assessing ...
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Tidal Creek Ecosystems: Sentinel Habitats for Assessing and Predicting
the Consequences of Coastal Development and Climate Change
Denise Sanger1,2, Anne Blair1
1 Center of Excellence in Oceans and Human Health
at Hollings Marine Laboratory and
2 S.C. Sea Grant Consortium
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
• Provide a synthesis of the impacts of coastal development on coastal ecosystems and the humans that live in them.
• Provide a case study highlighting a current modeling effort – ultimately predicting the impacts of changes in climate and the level of urbanization. • Changes in precipitation and soil saturation
Objectives of Presentation
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Tidal Creeks Sampled
Over 55 Tidal Creeks Representing Forested, Suburban, and Urban Land Uses
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Creek Continuum
Creek Lengths
1A – 850 m
1B – 850 m
2A – 6400 m
2B – 4600 m
3 – 5800 m A
A B
B
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
0
4
8
12
16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Popu
lation
Den
sity
(ind
hec-
1 )
Impervious Cover (%)
Intertidal Subtidal
R² = 0.82*
R² = 0.90*
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Forested Watershed
Groundwater recharge
Evapotranspiration Rainfall
Subsurface flow
Stormwater Runoff
Developed Watershed Rainfall Evapotranspiration
Stormwater Runoff
Subsurface flow
Groundwater recharge
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Modeled Runoff Volume More rainfall is converted to stormwater runoff in developed watersheds
27%
50%
67%
0
25
50
75
100
Forested Suburban Urban
Run
off
Vol
ume
(mm
)..
WatershedPresent scenario – 24-hr 4.5-in storm event, average runoff conditions
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Projecting Impact of Climate Change
0
25
50
75
100
Forested Suburban Urban
Run
off
Vol
ume
(mm
)..
Watershed
78%
42%
65%
Present scenario – 24-hr 4.5-in storm event, average runoff conditions Climate scenario– 12-hr 5.2-in storm event, semi-saturated runoff conditions
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Water Pathogens vs Impervious Cover Interitdal Subtidal
0
2
4
6
ENT
(log
CFU 1
00 m
l-1)
R2 = 0.33*
R2 = 0.03
0
1
2
3
F+ (log
PFU 1
00 m
l-1)
R2 = 0.40*
R2 = 0.26*
0
1
2
3
4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
F- (log
PFU 1
00 m
l-1)
Impervious Cover (%)
R2 = 0.27*
R2 = 0.31*
0
2
4
6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
FC (log
CFU 1
00 m
l-1)
Impervious Cover (%)
R2 = 0.24*
R2 = 0.64*
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Charleston Flood Prone Areas
Post and Courier
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
http://www.scseagrant.org/pdf_files/tidal_creeks_booklet.pdf
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Leveraging a NOAA/UNH Science Collaborative Project – PI Erik Smith
Model the loading of Enterococci (indicator bacteria) from surface water discharges along the Grand Strand and relate the findings to the SCDHEC Beach Monitoring Program.
Withers Swash, Myrtle Beach Dogwood Swash, Surfside Beach
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
White Point
Singleton
13th
Ave. S
Floral Surfside
Myrtle
Dogwood 16th Ave N.
Ocean Lakes Beaver Dam Creek
Midway
Withers
Deep Head
Cane Patch
Bear Branch
Grand Strand Swashes
Watersheds are undergoing QA/QC
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Loading • Event Load = Concentration * Volume
– Measure concentration in runoff and instream • 2 swashes – 6 runoff and 2 instream • Historical data – in runoff and instream
– Model volume • Current land use • Potential to add climate and development change scenarios
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory 0
1
2
3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Run
off
(m3 /s
/km
2 )..
Time (h)
Urban
Forested
Suburban
Prediction Schematic Im
per.
cov
er (%
)
0
20
40
60
80
Basins
(a) Watershed Attributes
(b) Hydrographic Characteristics
(c) Bacterial Indicators
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 20 40 60 80 Impervious cover (%)
ENT
(log
(x+1
) (d) Prediction of Load
(c) Bacterial Indicators
0
1012
Basins
Load
(col
onie
s)
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Relating Runoff to Beach Monitoring
Schematic of relating land sources to beach monitoring
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
192K 248K357K
465K
0
200
400
600
1 10 30 50
Run
off
Vol
ume
(m3 )
..
Thousands
Watershed Impervious Cover Percent
538K
634K
420K351K
Projecting impact of climate change Modeled climate scenario for current and built development levels shows increases in runoff far exceeding precipitation increase
Village Creek watershed – 630 ha Undeveloped - forested
Present scenario – 24-hr 4.5-in storm event, average runoff conditions Climate scenario– 12-hr 5.2-in storm event, semi-saturated runoff conditions
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Interactions/Partnerships
• North Inlet-Winyah Bay NERR – USC • Local Municipalities Planning and
Stormwater • SCDHEC – EQC (WQ, Beach Monitoring,
Watershed Planning) • SCDHEC – OCRM • SCDNR
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Needs for Addressing Problem
• Good climate scenarios – Precipitation patterns – Sea level rise and potential impacts on soil saturation
• Assumption that the concentration will stay the same which don’t know
• Time to commit to collaboration
Center of Excellence for Oceans and Human Health at the Hollings Marine Laboratory
Questions