Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)

Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)

WSAQS2011b Base Case Updates

University of North Carolina (UNC-IE)ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON)

April 29, 2015

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2011a CAMx Platform• 36 km CONUS; 12 km WESTUS; 4 km 3SAQS• 2011 NEIv1 emissions• 2011 WSAQS O&G• MOVES2010b• Prelim PMDETAIL Fires– 2011 WF, Rx and Ag

• MEGAN/WRAP Biogenics• BCs from MOZART• 2011 WRF 36/12/4 km– Standard Configuration

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2011b Updates• 2011 NEI v2• Updated 2011 WSAQS O&G• 2011 O&G for Williston/Great Plains Basins• SMOKE-MOVES2014 for on-road mobile• Updated 2011 fire emissions• New WRF simulations for Winter Meteorology

– Address winter ozone events• New BCs based on sensitivity tests

– Evaluate MOZART, GEOS-Chem and AM3• Wiki:

– http://vibe.cira.colostate.edu/wiki/wiki/2077/3saqs-2011b-modeling-platform

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2011b – 2011 NEI Version 2

• CEM Points– Add IDs, missing points, hourly CEM data

• Non-CEM Points– Move some to CEM; add missing ethanol facilities

• Commercial Marine– Update to newer year data

• Non-Road Mobile– Replace annual with monthly EI; Add Texas 2011 data

• On-Road Mobile (not used)– EFs from MOVESTier3FRM

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2011b – 2011 O&G Emissions• WSAQS update 2011 O&G emissions for D-J,

Piceance, NSJ, SSJ, and Uinta Basins:– EPA Tribal MNSR program data mined for

information– Addition of fracing engine emissions

• Wyoming O&G from WDEQ• New O&G emissions for Williston and Great

Plains Basins– From BLM Montana/Dakotas Study by WRAP

• Remainder 2011 O&G from 2011 NEI v2

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2011b – SMOKE-MOVES2014

• Use EPA MOVES2014/CB6 Emissions Factor Lookup Table w/ SMOKE-MOVES2014– State-specific data if provided to EPA– 2011 36/12/4 km WRF data– MOVES2014/CB6 not yet available• Release with other updates as MOVES2014a in “summer”

• Preliminary results on wiki:– http://

vibe.cira.colostate.edu/wiki/wiki/1067/moves2014-sensitivity-modeling-results

2011b – Updated PMDETAIL Fires• 2011a WRAP FETS fire

emissions tool as used in JFSP DEASCO3/WestJumpAQMS 2008 modeling

• For 2011b use updated emission factors (EFs) and VOC/PM speciation updated (Akagi 2011; May 2014)– Increases in VOC emissions– Addition of HONO

• In addition, new fire emissions to support use of the Volatility Basis Set (VBS) SOA module– VBS to be used in JFSP

PMDETAIL– Not WSAQS at this time

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2011b – WRF Winter Simulation• 2011a 36/12/4 km WRF simulation followed configuration used in

WestJumpAQMS with version updates• Model evaluation was generally good

– http://vibe.cira.colostate.edu/wiki/Attachments/Modeling/3SAQS_2011_WRF_MPE_v8_draft_Aug04_2014.pdf

– One exception was winter ozone cold pool event

• WSAQS conducted revised winter 2011 WRF modeling

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2011b – Updated 36 CONUS BCs

• Evaluating 3 GCMs for BCs– MOZART, GEOS-Chem and AM3– With and without using TOPCON BC

• Some have overstated dust (FCRS & CCRS)– May have to cap dust BC concentrations

• Results from BC sensitivity tests will decide final BC for 2011b– By end of May or early June

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2011b 36/12/4 km CAMx Base Case

• Expect to be performed ~ July 2015– Include full MPE products• Abbreviated report with online products

• 2020_2011b simulation • Distribution on Data Warehouse