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Three Misconceptions

Roland ParisUniversity of Ottawa

Presented to the Canada-UK Colloquium

Wilton Park, December 2, 2011

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Misconception #1

Fragile states represent a

coherent class of countries.

Fragile states are the toughest development

challenge of our era.Robert Zoellick

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World Bank:

Harmonized List of Fragile Situations, FY2011

Afghanistan Georgia Sierra Leone

Angola Guinea Solomon Islands

Bosnia & Herzegovina Guinea-Bissau Somalia

Burundi Haiti SudanCAR Iraq Tajikistan

Chad Kiribati Timor-Leste

Comoros Kosovo Togo

Congo, Rep Liberia West Bank & Gaza

Cote d'Ivoire Myanmar Western Sahara

DRC Nepal Yemen

Eritrea Sao Tome & Principe Zimbabwe

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Different Situations

1. Endemically weak states

2. Resource-rich poor performers

3. Deteriorating situations

4. Prolonged political crisis

5. Post-conflict situations

6. Brittle dictatorships

7. Reform-minded governments

From: Stewart Patrick, Failed States and Global Security: Empirical Questions and Policy Dilemmas,

International Studies Review9:4 (2007).

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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ac/Venn's_four_ellipse_construction.svg

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Misconception #2

Outsiders cant do statebuilding.

Not all statebuilding missions pose the

challenges Iraq does, butmost of them fail

Benjamin Friedman, Harvey Sapolsky & Christopher Preble

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Is the Record Really That Bad?

From: Roland Paris and Timothy D. Sisk, eds., The Dilemmas of Statebuilding: Confronting the Contradictions of

Postwar Peace Operations (London: Routledge, 2009), p. 2.

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War Recurrence

Deploying major PKO after a civil conflictreduces the risk of renewed war by 35%-90%

Robust finding, replicated in many studies, including:

Hegre, Hultman & Nygard (2010)

Fortna (2008)

Sambanis (2008)

Collier, Hoeffler & Soderbom (2008)

Gilligan & Sergenti (2008)

Doyle & Sambanis (2006)

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However

All bets are off when intervening in ongoing

conflicts

International presence can distort political &economic development

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Misconception #3

R2P offers a useful framework for

determining whether and when tointervene.

Libya was a textbook case for the

application of the R2P principle

Gareth Evans

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R2P

Emerging norm? Possibly

Useful policy framework? No

War is war, however noble the intentions

Lessons of Libya case

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Barack Obama

In this particular country, Libya, at this particular

moment, we were faced with the prospect of violence on

a horrific scale. We had a unique ability to stop that

violence: an international mandate for action, a broadcoalition prepared to join us, the support of Arab

countries, and a plea for help from the Libyan people

themselves. We also had the ability to stop Gadhafis

forces in their tracks without putting American troops on

the ground.

March 28, 2011

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