Three horizons

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Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 2011 1 The Three Horizons Innovation Framework 1 2 4 Horizon 1 Present (0-2 yrs) Horizon 2 Next (2-5 yrs) Horizon 3 Future (5+ yrs) Suppliers/ Vendors Customers Enabling Technologies Workforce Competitors Security Environment New Missions/ Programs Scanning: Anticipate and track change drivers emerging from the transactional environment Framing: Mission, CSFs Goals, Objectives Strengths/Weaknesses Product Cycle Time Risk Posture Environment Assessment: Opportunity and/or Threat? Power of Impact Scope of Impact Probability Velocity 3 Assign items from scanning to one of the three horizons as they are assessed Budget/ Economy 5 Portfolio Management: Separate prioritization schemes for each horizon Tech Planning Projects Concept Development, Prototypes Monitoring, Research

Transcript of Three horizons

Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 20111

The Three Horizons Innovation Framework

1

2 4

Horizon 1

Present (0-2 yrs)

Horizon 2

Next(2-5 yrs)

Horizon 3

Future(5+ yrs)Suppliers/

Vendors

Customers

Enabling

Technologies

WorkforceCompetitors

Security

Environment

New Missions/

Programs

Scanning:Anticipate and track change

drivers emerging from the

transactional environment

Framing:Mission, CSFs

Goals, Objectives

Strengths/Weaknesses

Product Cycle Time

Risk Posture

Environment

Assessment:Opportunity and/or Threat?

Power of Impact

Scope of Impact

Probability

Velocity

3

Assign items from scanning to one of the

three horizons as they are assessed

Budget/

Economy

5Portfolio Management:Separate prioritization schemes for each horizon

Tech Planning

Projects

Concept

Development,

Prototypes

Monitoring,

Research

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Framing the Three Horizons for MOD

Mission, CSFs – What do you do and how do you measure success?

Goals, Objectives – Current vision and strategy

Strengths/Weaknesses – Necessary to understand sensitivity to change

Product Cycle Time – How much time do you need to react?

Risk Posture – Where do you want to be on the tech adoption curve?

Transactional Environment – Define the entities in the environment that

are relevant sources of external change

Rogers Diffusion of

Innovations Curve

Innovator?

Mainstream?

Risk Averse?

Gartner Hype Curve

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Horizon 1

Present

Horizon 2

Next

Horizon 3

Future

Who Participates? Standard project

governance

MSRB with SRWG in support? SRWG facilitates process for all

of MOD

Horizon Length(based on product cycle and

dynamic nature of the

environment)

0-2 Years 2-5 years 5+ years

Est. Percent of

Budget(rule of thumb based on risk

posture, etc.)

70% for Early Adopter

~93% Late Majority

20% for Early Adopter

~5% Late Majority

10% for Early Adopter

~2% Late Majority

Prioritization

Criteria

Typical project portfolio

management.

Impact assessment matrix.

Horizon 3 impact

assessment with business

case/ROI considerations

Objective assessment of

drivers themselves -- impact,

probability, velocity…

Subjective assessment of

drivers against goals,

strengths, weaknesses…

Tools/Activities Legacy tech planning

process

Prototypes, trade studies, white

papers, roadmaps

Scenarios, Relevance Trees,

Cross-impact analysis, Delphi,

Signposts , Vision networks…

Three

Horizons

in Detail

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Appendix: Background on

Potentially Relevant Foresight

Concepts

Compiled and Created by Cody Clark

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Characterizing Change Sources

- Incoming: Change we experience

- Outgoing: Change we create

Location

- Internal

- External

Change Rates

- Continuous: Trends, Cycles

- Discontinuous: Events, wildcards

S-Curve

Punctuated EquilibriumS-Curve

Era

Era

EraTransition

Transition

1

2

3

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Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations Curve

Web Beyond…

Offline Web, Internet Of

Things, Biological Web,

???

Web 3.0

Connecting

Programs/

Intelligence

Web 2.0

Connecting

People

Web 1.0

Connecting

Information

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Cumulative Distribution of the Rogers

Curve is the “S- Curve” of change

S-Curve

1

2

3

Also called the “Issues Management Curve”

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Anticipating Change

• Disruptive Change is not

completely

unforeseeable

• Evidence of the future is

always available in the

present (Horizon 1)

Era

Era

EraTransition

Transition

Era

Era

Transition

1

2

3Anticipatory

Proactive

Reactive

Anticipate and Act Early

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Cone of Plausibility

Present

Past

More Risk, More

Strategic

Advantage

Less Risk, Less

Strategic

Advantage

Vision: Preferable Baseline: Probable

Alternatives:

Plausible,

Possible

1-3 yr horizon

5-10 yr horizon

20+ yr horizon

Futures

There is inherent risk that comes with

anticipation

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Technology Assessment

Analyze Timing

Current State

•Technology Readiness Level

•Awareness Level, Gartner’s

“Hype Curve”

•Technology Adoption Level

“Velocity” – Timing of past

states relative to present

Future States

•Time to Market

•Time to Awareness

Technology

Readiness Level

Technology

Diffusions Curve

Technology Adoption

Curve

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Estimate Probability of Impact

Anticipate Scope/Reach•limited specialty/sub domain impacted

•entire domain/market impacted

•multiple domains/markets impacted

•universal social impact

Anticipate Disruptiveness•Power – personal level of impact

•Which key domain constraints, assumptions may

be overturned?

•Leverage on System Dynamics

•System Dynamics Leverage Modeling, or

•Donella Meadows’ 12 Systemic Leverage

Points

•Vulnerability -- Consider client ability to respond

(flexibility, capability, etc.)

Technology Assessment

Potential Impact

Era

Era

EraTransition

Transition

How

Disruptive?

Power: What level of personal

need might it affect?

How much

Systemic

Leverage?

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12

Visioning

Strategic

Actions

Forecasting

Futures Method Overview

What is likely to

happen:

Probable,

Possible Futures

What we want to

happen:

Preferable

Futures

What we do to close the

gap:

Planned Futures

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Scenario Generation Approaches

From University Futures, (http://www.universityfutures.org/prospective_methods)

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Incasting

Method of exploring alternative futures

Activities

- Input: Given a scenario logic/description as input (e.g. from scenario

generation exercise)

- Accept the scenario as basis of exercise. (Not allowed to question the scenario)

- Explore the scenario using STEEP and some “Day in the life” type questions,

such as….

Who are the winners and losers in this scenario?

What challenges does this scenario present to leadership?

What new roles or professions exist in this scenario? Which existing ones have disappeared?

How would our strategy have to change for us to survive or thrive in this scenario?

- Output: More fully developed scenario and more internalized “sense” of each

alternative future

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Backcasting

Method of identifying intermediate future states from a longer-term future (or a preferable future vision)

Steps- Input: Given a scenario logic/description as input (e.g. from scenario

generation exercise)

- Accept the scenario as basis of exercise. (Not allowed to question the scenario)

- Explore briefly the scenario using STEEP

- Identify the prerequisite states needed to enable the scenario

- Recursively identify the prerequisite states for each intermediate state, all the way back to present conditions

- Good for “Gap” analysis between a vision and a current change framework. Input for strategic planning.

- Output: A “path forward” and “vision network” for a given future