Threats, Situational Awa... Perspective _ Stratfor

8/14/2019 Threats, Situational Awa... Perspective _ Stratfor

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Threats (ituational A)areness and *erspectiveSecurity Weekly +E,NE(,A A.'.(T !! !""/ - #$:"0 d Print 1 Te2t (i3e 4

By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart

5n last )ee67s Terrorism 5ntelligence eport )e said

.9(9 counterterrorism sources remain concerned an

attac6 )ill occur on .9(9 soil in the ne2t fe) )ee6s9

Although )e are s6eptical of these reports al aeda

and other ;ihadists do retain the a<ility -- and the

<urning desire -- to conduct tactical stri6es )ithin the

.nited (tates9 One thing )e did not say last )ee6ho)ever )as that )e pu<lish such reports not to

frighten readers <ut to impress upon them the need for preparedness )hich does not mean paranoia9

=ear and paranoia in fact are counterproductive to good personal and national security9 As such )e have attempted

over the past f e) years to place )hat )e consider hyped threats into the proper perspective9 To this end )e have

addressed threats such as al aeda7s chemical and <iological )eapons capa<ilities reports of a looming >American

?iroshima> nuclear attac6 against the .nited (tates the dirty <om< threat the smo6y <om< threat and the threat of

so-called >mu<ta66ar devices> among others9

Though some threats are indeed hyped the )orld nonetheless remains a dangerous place9 .ndou<tedly at this very

moment some people are see6ing )ays to carry out attac6s against targets in the .nited (tates9 Moreover terrorism

attac6s are not the only threat -- far more people are victimi3ed <y common criminals9 ,oes this reality mean that

people need to live in constant fear and paranoia@ Not at all9 5f people do live that )ay those )ho see6 to terrori3ethem have )on9 ?o)ever <y ta6ing a fe) relatively simple precautions and ad;usting their mindsets people can live

less-stressful lives during these uncertain times9 One of the 6eys to personal preparedness and protection is to have

a contingency plan in place in the event of an attac6 or other ma;or emergency9 The second element is practicing

situational a)areness9

The *roper (tate of Mind

(ituational a)areness is the process of recogni3ing a threat at an early stage and ta6ing measures to avoid it9 eing

o<servant of one7s surroundings and identifying potential threats and dangerous situations is more of an attitude or

mindset than it is a hard s6ill9 ecause of this situational a)areness is not ;ust a process that can <e practiced <y

highly trained government agents or speciali3ed corporate security countersurveillance teams -- it can <e adopted

and employed <y anyone9

An important element of this mindset is first coming to the reali3ation that a threat e2ists9 5gnorance or denial of a

threat -- or completely tuning out to one7s surroundings )hile in a pu<lic place -- ma6es a person7s chances of Buic6ly

recogni3ing the threat and avoiding it slim to none9 This is )hy apathy denial and complacency are so deadly9

An e2ample is the case of Terry Anderson the Associated *ress <ureau chief in e<anon )ho )as 6idnapped March

#0 #D8&9 The day <efore his a<duction Anderson )as driving in eirut traf fic )hen a car pulled in front of his and

nearly <loc6ed him in9 ,ue to the traffic situation and undou<tedly a <it of luc6 Anderson )as a<le to avoid )hat he

thought )as an automo<ile accident -- even though events li6e these can <e hallmar6s of pre-operational planning9

The ne2t day Anderson7s luc6 ran out as the same vehicle successfully <loc6ed his vehicle in the same spot9

Anderson )as pulled f rom his vehicle at gunpoint -- and held hostage for si2 years and nine months9

Clearly fe) of us are living in the type of c ivil )ar conditions that Anderson faced in #D8& eirut9 Nonetheless

average citi3ens face all 6inds of threats today -- f rom common thieves and assailants to criminals and mentally

distur<ed individuals )ho aim to conduct violent acts in the school mall or )or6place to militants )anting to carry outlarge-scale attac6s9 (hould an attac6 occur then a person )ith a complacent or apathetic mindset )ill <e ta6en

completely <y surprise and could f ree3e up in shoc6 and denial as their minds are f orced to Buic6ly ad;ust to a ne)ly

recogni3ed and unforeseen situational reality9 That person is in no condition to react flee or resist9

,enial and complacency ho)ever are not the only ha3ardous states of mind9 As mentioned a<ove paranoia and

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o<sessive concern a<out one7s safety and security can <e ;ust as dangerous9 There are times )hen it is important to

<e on heightened alert -- a )oman )al6ing alone in a dar6 par6ing lot is one e2ample -- <ut people are simply not

designed to operate in a state of heightened a)areness f or e2tended periods of time9 The <ody7s >f light or fight>

response is helpful in a sudden emergency <ut a constant stream of adrenalin and stress leads to mental and

physical <urnout9 5t is very hard for people to <e a)are of their surroundings )hen they are completely fried9

(ituational a)areness then is <est practiced at a <alanced level referred to as >rela2ed a)areness> a state of mind

that can <e maintained indef initely )ithout all the stress associated )ith <eing on constant alert9 ela2ed a)areness

is not tiring and allo)s people to en;oy life )hile paying attention to their surroundings9

+hen people are in a state of rela2ed a)areness it is f ar easier to ma6e the transition to a state of heighteneda)areness than it is to ;ump all the )ay from complacency to heightened a)areness9 (o if something out of the

ordinary occurs those practicing rela2ed a)areness can heighten their a)areness )hile they attempt to determine

)hether the anomaly is indeed a threat9 5f it is they can ta6e action to avoid itI if it is not they can stand do)n and

return to a state of rela2ed a)areness9

The Telltale (igns

+hat are )e loo6ing for )hile )e are in a state of rela2ed a)areness@ Essentially the same things )e discussed

)hen )e descri<ed )hat <ad surveillance loo6s li6e9 5t is important to remem<er that almost every criminal act from a

purse-snatching to a terrorist <om<ing involves some degree of pre-operational surveillance and that criminals are

vulnera<le to detection during that time9 This is <ecause criminals even militants planning terrorist attac6s of ten are

Buite sloppy )hen they are casing their intended targets9 They have <een a<le to get a)ay )ith their sloppy practices

for so long <ecause most people simply do not loo6 f or them9 On the positive side ho)ever that also means that

people )ho are loo6ing can spot them fairly easily9

The .9(9 government uses the acronym TE,, to illustrate the principles one can use to identify surveillance <ut

these same principles also can <e used to identif y criminal threats9 TE,, stands for Time Environment ,istance

and ,emeanor9 5n other )ords if a person sees someone repeatedly over time in different environments and over

distance or one )ho displays poor demeanor then that person can assume he or she is under surveillance9 5f a

person is the specif ic target of a planned attac6 he or she might <e e2posed to the time environment and distance

elements of TE,, <ut if the su<)ay car the person is riding in or the <uilding )here the person )or6s is the target

he or she might only have the element of demeanor to 6ey on9 This also is true in the case of criminals )ho <ehave

li6e >am<ush predators> and lur6 in an area )aiting for a victim9 ecause their attac6 cycle is e2tremely condensed

the most important element to )atch for is demeanor9

y poor demeanor )e simply mean a person is acting unnaturally9 This <ehavior can loo6 <latantly suspicious such

as someone )ho is lur6ing andJor has no reason for <eing )here he is or for doing )hat he is doing9 (ometimesho)ever poor demeanor can <e more su<tle encompassing almost impercepti<le <ehaviors that the target senses

more than o<serves9 Other givea)ays include moving )hen the target moves communicating )hen the target

moves avoiding eye contact )ith the target ma6ing sudden turns or s tops or even using hand signals to

communicate )ith other mem<ers of a surveillance team9

5n the terrorism realm e2hi<iting poor demeanor also can include )earing unseasona<ly )arm c lothing such as

trench coats in the summerI displaying odd <ulges under clothing or )ires protruding f rom clothingI unnaturally

s)eating mum<ling or fidgetingI or attempting to avoid security personnel9 5n addition according to some reports

suicide <om<ers often e2hi<it an intense stare as they approach the f inal stages of their mission9 They seem to have

tunnel vision <eing a<le to focus only on their intended target9

*erspective

+e have seen no hard intelligence that supports the assertions that a ;ihadist attac6 )ill occur in the ne2t f e) )ee6s

and are some)hat s6eptical a<out such reports9 egardless of )hether our .9(9 counterterrorism sources are

correct this time though the )orld remains a dangerous place9 Al aeda grassroots ;ihadists and domestic militants

of several dif ferent political persuasions have the desire and capa<ility to conduct attac6s9 Mean)hile criminals and

mentally distur<ed individuals such as the Virginia Tech shooter appear to <e getting more violent every day9

5n the <ig picture violence and terrorism have al)ays <een a part of the human condition9 The Chinese <uilt the 'reat

+all for a reason other than tourism9 Today7s >terrorists> are far less dangerous to society as a )hole than )ere the

Vi6ing <erser6ers and <ar<arian tri<es )ho terrori3ed Europe f or centuries and the ragtag collection of men )ho have

s)orn allegiance to Osama <in aden pose far less of a threat to +estern civili3ation than the large <attle-hardened

army A<dul ahman al-'hafiBi led into the heart of =rance in /$!9

Terrorist attac6s are designed to have a psychological impact that far out)eighs the actual physical damage caused<y the attac6 itself9 ,enying the perpetrators this multiplication ef fect -- as the ritish did after the Guly !""& su<)ay

<om<ings -- prevents them from accomplishing their greater goals9 Therefore people should prepare plan and

practice rela2ed a)areness -- and not let paranoia and the fear of terrorism and crime ro< them of the ;oy of life9

(end us your thoughts on this report9

A *ractical 'uide t o(ituational A)areness

A *rimer on (ituational

A)areness

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,anger

EATE, CONTENT

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*lanning

O,E L



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