Threats and Opportunities in a Changing Arctic: Policy ...€¦ · R. Andreas Kraemer Director,...

www.arctic-transform.eu www.ecologic.eu

R. Andreas Kraemer Director, Ecologic Institute, Berlin, Vienna, Brussels, EU Chairman, Ecologic Institute, Washington DC, USA

Bryant University John H. Chafee Center for International Business

November 14th, 2008

Threats and Opportunities in a Changing Arctic: Policy Challenges and Transatlantic Relations


Antarc(ca

• A con(nent, not an ocean

• Antarc(c Treaty System Washington 12/01/59

• Moratorium on use, science, coopera(on

• Rela(vely stable ??? • Many penguins, but ... ... No humans !


Background – Ecologic Ins(tute – Arc(c Transform

Arc(c & Climate Change – Indigenous Peoples – Fisheries – Shipping – Hydrocarbons – Territorial Claims

„Governance“

Content


Ecologic

• Private, independent, mission‐based, non‐profit

• Independent and competent Voice for: – Environment in interna(onal & EU affairs – Interna(onal & EU dimension in environment policy

– Integra(on of environment into other policies

• ‘Think tank’, 6 founders, Euro 80,000.00 capital • Company law (business), ‘opera(ve founda(on’ • 75 staff, 60 full‐(me eq., reven. $ 6.0 m/a (2007)

• Project‐driven, trans‐disciplinary, advisory


Ecologic

• 1995 Ecologic Ins(tute, Berlin, Germany

• 2000 Ecologic Legal (14 staff lawyers, 2008) • 2001 Ecologic EU Office, Brussels • 2001 Transatlan(c Program

• 2002 Ecologic Events • 2005 Konrad von Moltke Fund • 2006 Relaw, Clearing House for renewable energy • 2007 Ecologic Ins(tute, Vienna, Austria • 2008 Ecologic Ins(tute, Washington DC, US

Michael Mehling President

Ecologic Institute Washington DC


Project

• Arc(c TRANSFORM is to develop Transatlan(c Policy Op(ons for Suppor(ng Adapta(on in the Marine Arc(c Environment

• Financed (80%) by European Commission (DG Relex); Cofinanced by WWF, Norway, Canada?, Aspen Inst.?

• Partners – Ecologic Ins(tute, Germany & US (lead)

– Arc(c Centre, University of Lapland, Finland – NL Ins(tute for the Law of the Sea, University Utrecht, NL – The Heinz Center, US


Vostok Ice Core


621

CO2 Levels Now at ~ 385 ppmv

CO2 Concentrations over the past 400,000

years, with current levels of CO2 higher

than they have been in 800,000 years.

CO2 Pre-Industrial Levels where at ~ 280

to 300 ppmv

Let’s look at this scale of time, the past 10,000 years or so.

Let’s look at the Earth’s climate during the time that humanity, as we know it,

established itself.


Agriculture emerges

4.5 oC

1.5 oC

This is 10,000 years of clima(c stability that enabled humanity to evolve as we know our cultures

today

The Last 10,000 Years has been Ideal for the Development of Human Socie(es. This Historic “Sweet Spot” has Enabled Human Socie(es to Flourish

IPCC (2007) forecast of about 2‐3 oC, with

the band of uncertainty

www.arctic-transform.eu www.ecologic.eu 11

www.arctic-transform.eu www.ecologic.eu 12

September Sea Ice


No Ice Shield

Shismaref is culturally tradi(onal Inupiaq village of 600 residents,

that has been inhabited for upwards of 2000 years.


Observa(ons

• Arc(c is most strongly affected by climate change

• Arc(c is a bellwether, AND a source & amplifier • Climate is not the only driver of change in the Arc(c • Climate change threatens Indigenous Communi(es

• Indigenous Peoples hold rights, not stakes • New Opportuni(es (oil & gas, shipping, fishing) • „Adapta(on“ not an op(on for Indigenous Peoples • Non‐Arc(c states have a strong interest in the Arc(c


Today’s Arc(c Marine Use


MS Explorer

• Canadian cruise ship MS Explorer struck submerged ice off AntarcCca and sank in 20 hours, but all 154 passengers & crew took to lifeboats and were plucked to safety by a passing cruise ship, Norwegian liner Nordnorge.


Fishing

• Problems: – Ice cover recedes; fishing expands to areas without rules – More overfishing, illegal, unreported or unregulated fishing

– No bilateral mechanisms for shared stocks – No mechanism for straddling fish in Central Arc(c Ocean

– No agreement covers northward shir of fish stocks – No Arc(c Regional Fisheries Management Organiza(on

• UN Law of the Sea, and Fish Stocks Agreement • UN FAO Rules: Vessel Compliance with Conserva(on


New Finds ?

USGS, 2008

Arctic may hold more oil & gas than all Arabia, ...

... but it will be very hard to get !


Oil & Gas

• Problems: – Lack of or weak (environmental) rules on offshore ac(vi(es – „Wild North“ in Russia, Canada, Norway, US, also on land

– Environmental impact can already be observed; the Arc(c cold marine environment lacks resilience

– No rules for mining pollu(on preven(on and abatement

– No (joint) response capabili(es to respond to oil spills – No meaningful control of oil & gas transport, and safety

• Corporate Social Responsibility


„Summer Sealir“

Suvinai Ashoona

Lithograph, 22" x 30"

Sealir

http://www.inuitfinearts.com/vincentgallery/prints/images/l2003_32.jpg


Shipping

• Problems: – Billions go into new vessels for the „shortcuts over the top“ – Bulk transshipping; service for mining, oil & gas; cruise vessels; (military) naval vessels; fishing; research

– 2005: 262 ice class ships in service, 234 on order – Risks: Ice (which won‘t disappear or follow rules), weather, poor charts, few communica(on and other aids

• Corporate Social Responsibility ??? : „At the (me of accident, the first officers of both vessels were drunk; this is considered state‐of‐the‐art in the industry.“


Today’s Arc(c Marine Use

High Grade Iron Ore??

• Hard Minerals

• Marine Tourism

• Key Fisheries • Oil & Gas • Summer Sealir

• Explora(on/Science

Zinc & Coal

Nickel & Copper


The Mari(me Arc(c of the Future?

Improving Coastal Access

2007 to 2030+

Summer 2025??

Summer 2040??

Fishing

Fishing

?

Summer 2020 ?

Tourism?

++ Tourism

NWP?

++ Tourism


The Mari(me Arc(c of Today

Modes of Arc+c Marine Transport • ‐Des(na(onal & Regional • ‐Trans‐Arc(c • ‐Trans‐Arc(c with Transshipment • ‐Intra‐Arc(c

Snapshot of Summer 2004 Traffic

8 NP 3-Ship Drilling

27 Cruise Ships (53~2005) (150~2006) (200+ ~ 2007)

6 Research Ships 107

Voyages

5 NWP Transits

0 NSR Transits

165 Voyages 52 Ships

Hundreds of Transits

High Intensity Fishing

High Intensity Fishing

Red Dog Mine ~23

Noril’sk Complex

Vessels ~ 5,475


Geopoli(cs

• Access and Rights of Passage through the – Northern Sea Route (Russia) and the – Northwest Passage (Canada)

• Seaward Claims of ownership in the Arc(c basin – Median Line Method (areas propor(onal to coastline of a country)

– Sector Method (Divide by longitudinal line to the pole)

• Boundary Disputes (e.g. Hans Island Denmark vs. Canada) • Land Claims and Indigenous Peoples‘ land rights

Is the Law of the Sea suitable for resolving these ? Are other interna(onal frameworks required ?


Solu(ons ?

• Gaps exist in the governance system for the Arc(c; we can: – 1) ‘Do Nothing’ – unacceptable – 2) Fully implement current regimes (rules) – unlikely, so: also bad – 3) Improve the current system – but how? – fragmenta(on remains

– 4) Shir towards a comprehensive framework – possible ?

• Use exis(ng ins(tu(ons as basis for bexer Arc(c governance • Comprehensive Governance

needed to address interrelated challenges in the Arc(c

• The Arc(c Council could be „upgraded“ • Role of Interna(onal Mari(me Organiza(on in the Arc(c

needs to be revised


Sailing ...

... in the ArcCc Sea is no fun, you ...


R. Andreas Kraemer Director, Ecologic Institute, Berlin, Vienna, Brussels, EU Chairman, Ecologic Institute, Washington DC, USA

Bryant University John H. Chafee Center for International Business

November 14th, 2008

Threats and Opportunities in a Changing Arctic: Policy Challenges and Transatlantic Relations

Threats and Opportunities in a Changing Arctic: Policy ...€¦ · R. Andreas Kraemer Director,...

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