THREAT HORIZON 2017Dangers accelerate

• Annual report

• Identifies information security threat trends over next 2 years

• Links threat trends to business impact

WHAT IS THREAT HORIZON?

METHODOLOGY

Regular and increasingly large disruptions will impact the social, political and economic foundations of the internet, all underpinned by faster connectivity and new users.

THEME 1DISRUPTION DIVIDES AND CONQUERS

Gigabit connectivity will offer new possibilities for everyone including criminals. Impact: Increased exposure to attacks and disruption to critical business

systems.

Threat 1.1Supercharged connectivity overwhelms defences

Organised crime will migrate online, developing complex internal hierarchies and commoditising their activities at a global level. Impact: Law enforcement and infosec struggle to keep pace, resulting in business disruption and increased security budgets.

Threat 1.2Crime syndicates take a quantum leap

Civil unrest will emerge in response to relentless technology advances that increase socio-economic inequality. Impact: Disruption, including negative publicity and brand damage, to organisations caught in the unrest.

Threat 1.3Tech rejectionists cause chaos

Society is increasingly dependent on digital systems that are highly complex and often based on trust. This will prove to be an unreliable method of operating systems that are integral to the global economy.

THEME 2COMPLEXITY CONCEALS FRAGILITY

Following several large cascading failures (e.g. to energy grid or GPS) hidden dependencies on digitally connected critical infrastructure will become transparent. Impact: Delayed production and deliveries. Reputational damage and loss of customers.

Threat 2.1Dependence on critical infrastructure becomes dangerous

Targeted exploitation of widely distributed and homogenous technologies will occur frequently and have implications for the normal functioning of the Internet and wider global economy. Impact: Loss of business-critical information. Reduced or unavailable customer service.

Threat 2.2Systemic vulnerabilities are weaponised

Digital connectivity inside and between organisations grows, exposing legacy technology to attackers and a greater likelihood of accidents. Impact: Inability to maintain consistent service delivery. Steep costs for maintenance expertise and technology transformation programmes.

Threat 2.3Legacy technology crumbles

Disruption to cyber-physical systems (i.e. systems that have direct physical impact) will lead to verifiable human deaths. Impact: Loss of life. Loss of customer trust. Legal liabilities increase dramatically. Safety regulations bring new costs.

Threat 2.4Death from disruption to digital systems

Large information providers will continue to expand into emerging markets, solidifying their global ambitions and frustrating government attempts at regulation. Companies will become complacent about dealing with data breaches, and poorly conceived regulations will be enforced selectively.

THEME 3COMPLACENCY BITES BACK

Major information companies such as Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple will grow their global market share, raising concerns about competition and anti-trust law. Impact: Lack of commercial competition. Regulators struggle to keep pace, neither enforcing fair competition nor delivering optimal prices to consumers.

Threat 3.1Global consolidation endangers competition and security

The number of data breaches will grow along with the volume of compromised records, becoming far more expensive for organisations of all sizes. Impact: Customer impact and delay as liabilities are unravelled in court. Reputational damage. Unforeseen costs from expensive and lengthy remediation.

Threat 3.2Impact of data breaches increases dramatically

1. Disruption divides and conquers

1.1. Supercharged connectivity overwhelms defences1.2. Crime syndicates take a quantum leap1.3. Tech rejectionists cause chaos

2. Complexity conceals fragility

2.1. Dependence on critical infrastructure becomes dangerous2.2. Systemic vulnerabilities are weaponised 2.3. Legacy technology crumbles2.4. Death from disruption to digital services

3. Complacency bites back

3.1. Global consolidation endangers competition and security3.2. Impact of data breaches increases dramatically

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