THORPEXA World Weather Research Programme

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

David Rogers, ChairWMO Expert Group for THORPEX

International Research Implementation Plan

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Overview of THORPEX Planning Organisation

WMOCommission for

Atmospheric Sciences

International Scientific

Steering Committee

Expert Group -THORPEXImplementation

World Weather Research Programme

THORPEX International Core Steering

Committee

THORPEX SCIENCE PLANIMPLEMENTATION PLAN

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Expert GroupDr David Rogers Chairman, Chief Executive, Met Office, UK

Dr Michel Béland Chairman ICSC, Director General of Atmospheric and Climate Science for the Meteorological Service of Canada

Dr Philippe Bougeault

Head of Research Department European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Dr Jim Caughey EUMETNET/EUCOS Programme Manager, Met Office, UK

Dr Philippe Courtier Chairman SSC/WWRP, Directeur, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées (ENPC), France

Dr Chen Dehui Co-Chair Asian Regional Committee, Deputy Director, Research Center for Numerical Meteorological Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, China

Dr Tetsuo Nakazawa

Chair Asian Regional Committee, Head, 2nd Laboratory, Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency

Dr David Parsons Co-Chair North American Regional Committee, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, USA

Dr Kamal Puri Ex-Chair JSC/CAS WGNE, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Australia

Dr Jim Purdom Chairman CBS Open Programme Area Group on Integrated Observing Systems, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, USA

Dr David Richardson

Co-Chair European Regional Committee, Met Office, UK

Dr Mel Shapiro Co-Chair ISSC, NOAA Office of Weather and Air Quality, USA

Prof. Alan Thorpe Co-Chair ISSC, Director, NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science, Dept of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK

Dr Zoltan Toth National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Weather Service, USA

Dr Martin Miller Chairman CAS/JSC WGNE, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Ken Mylne Chairman CBS Open Programme Area Group on Data processing and Forecasting Systems, expert team on ensemble prediction systems. Ensemble Forecasting Research Manager, Met Office, UK

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WMO Secretariat

Dr Katsuhiro Abe Ocean Affairs (OCA) Division, APP Department

Dr David Carson Director, World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Department

Dr Peter Dexter Chief, Ocean Affairs (OCA) Division, APP Department

Dr Wolfgang Grabs Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (HWR) Department, Chief Water Management Division

Dr Don Hinsman Head, WMO Space Programme

Dr Dusan Hrcek Regional Activities and Technical Cooperation Programme (RCD) Department

Dr Georgi Kortchev Director, Applications Programme (APP) Department

Ms Haleh Kootval Chief, PWS Division, APP Department

Ms Teruko Manabe Ocean Affairs (OCA) Division, APP Department

Dr Elena Manaenkova

Director Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP) Department

Mr Joel Martellet World Weather Watch Programme (WWW) Department

Dr Buruhani Nyenzi World Climate Programme (WCP) Department

Dr Leslie Malone World Climate Programme (WCP) Department

Dr EduardSarukhanian

Special Advisor to the WMO Secretary-General on the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008

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Development of TIP• EG-TIP1 London (UK), 23-27 February, 2004

• EG-TIP2 Geneva (Switzerland), 21-23 April, 2004

• EG-TIP3 Beijing (China), 13-15 September, 2004

• EG-TIP4 Boulder (USA), 18 October, 2004

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Purpose of Implementation Plan

• The Implementation Plan (TIP) will guide the execution of THORPEX during the course of the programme.

• The TIP:– Defines THORPEX deliverables based on research scientific

opportunities, the expectations of the operational meteorological community, and the availability of resources;

– Coordinates academic and government research programmes and projects;

– Follows the THORPEX International Science Plan and the Regional Science Plans for Asia, Europe, North America and other regions or nations whenever their contribution to THORPEX is defined;

– Defines milestones and deliverables from each of the THORPEX participants;

– Identifies opportunities for collaboration between THORPEX and other programmes;

– Defines decision points and the necessary steps to carry out THORPEX research and development;

– Facilitates the transition of results to operations within the Members’ organizations.

• The TIP is dynamic, evolving as the science opportunities change.

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TIP Structure1. Introduction2. General Approach to Programme Design3. Core Research Objectives4. Predictability and Dynamical Processes Tasks5. Observing System Tasks6. Data Assimilation Tasks7. Social and Economic Applications Tasks8. A Global Interactive Forecasting System9. Intersection with Climate Prediction10. THORPEX Observing System Tests11. THORPEX Regional Campaigns (TReCs)12. THORPEX Demonstration Projects13. Major Campaigns14. Programme Management15. Financial Plan16. Draft Announcements of Opportunity17. Programme Implementation Schedule18. Contributing Institutions and Organizations19. References20. AbbreviationsANNEX I - TIP Terms of Reference ANNEX II - THORPEX IPO and Management Support Cost ANNEX III - WMO Bodies ANNEX IV – TIP Revision Tables

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THORPEX Goals

• To provide the research underpinning the WMO strategy to reduce by 50 per cent over the decade 2010-2019 the number of fatalities caused by meteorological, hydrological and climaterelated natural disasters compared with the ten-year average fatalities of 1995-2004.

• To increase the effectiveness of advanced warnings of high impact weather globally.

• To enable governments, societies and economic sectors to realise fully the benefit of weather and climate related information in critical decision-making.

• To demonstrate ways to increase cooperation and collaboration between National Meteorological Services to deliver the benefitsof new global earth observations, advanced communications, and new global forecasting systems to all societies.

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THORPEX Will…

• Extend the range of skilful weather forecasts to time scales of value in decision-making (up to 14 days) using probabilistic ensemble forecast techniques;

• Develop accurate and timely weather warnings in a form that can be readily used in decision-making support tools;

• Assess the impact of weather forecasts and associated outcomes on the development of mitigation strategies to minimise the impact of natural hazards.

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By…

• Advancing our knowledge of global-to-regional influences on the initiation, evolution, and predictability of high-impact weather;

• Designing the strategy for interactive forecasting and targeted observations thus contributing to the process of evolving the WMO Global Observing System (GOS) which is recognized as a core component of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS);

• Creating and evaluating systems for the assimilation of targetedobservations from satellites and in-situ measurements;

• Accelerating improvements in the accuracy weather forecasts;

• Testing and demonstrating the utility of a multinational multi-model multi-analysis global ensemble forecasting system;

• Improving and demonstrating decision support tools, which utiliseadvanced forecasting products to benefit directly social and economic sectors.

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Research will focus on…

• Predictability and Dynamical Processes• Observing Systems• Data Assimilation• Societal and Economic Applications• Developing and testing a Global Interactive Forecasting System

(GIFS)– THORPEX Interactive Global Grand Ensemble– Prototype operational GIFS

• Developing unified weather and climate prediction (with WCRP)• Developing of a new very high resolution global model• Demonstrating the benefits of the end-to-end forecast system

particularly with partners in Developing Countries • Providing a weather focus for other major programmes, such as

the International Polar Year• Regional campaigns

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Predictability and Dynamical Processes

Time Scale (Years)Goals

Projects 2 6 10

Effect of dynamical and physical processes on forecast skill

Determine required skill of forecast systems to predict Rossby Wave amplitudes

Influence of flow regimes on the climatology of forecast skill

Identify geographical regions where improved observations will lead to improved forecastsDetermine relationship between macro-states of the atmosphere and predictability

Predictive skill at all forecast ranges

Determine what limits predictability Quantify the limits of predictability for all forecast ranges

Role of model errors in forecasting

Quantify and attribute sources of forecast error to initial conditions and model uncertainty

Effect of initial condition uncertainty on forecasts

Develop initial perturbation schemes for EPS

Continue development of perturbation schemes for EPS

Develop improved ensemble prediction systems

Study resolution versus increased number of ensemble members

Incorporate new initial perturbation schemes

Incorporate NWP model perturbation schemes

Adaptive methods in ensemble generation

Develop optimum configuration of ensemble schemes

Multi Centre ensemble research

Create THORPEX data archive, access and verification tools for all THORPEX participants. Hosted at 2-4 centres worldwide

Inform development of TIGGE research system

Inform Operational Global Interactive Forecasting System

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Observing System tasks

Time Scale (Years)Goals

Projects 2 6 10

New Delivery Systems Assess current observing system strategy

Examine, develop and test new delivery platforms for targeting

Assess viability of observing system with new global NWP strategy

Deliver new operational observing system

Inform future satellite sensing systems and operational strategy

Field campaigns Complete Observing System Tests

Complete forecast impact studies

Support observational needs of other THORPEX research components

Complete Observing System Tests

Complete forecast impact studies

Support observational needs of other THORPEX research components

Complete Observing System Tests

Complete forecast impact studies

Support observational needs of other THORPEX research components

Refine Targeting and adaptive observing Strategies

Determine targeting and adaptive observing strategies using OSEs and OSSEs

Evaluate impact of strategies on forecast error

Determine role of targeting and adaptive observing in Redesign of the Global Observing Network

Generalise existing strategies Develop a generalised observing strategy for flow regimes dominated by physical processes

Test and evaluate observing strategies in TReCs

Design Observational networks Develop techniques for the optimal design of observing networks

Test and evaluate network design

Redesign of the Global Observing Network

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Data Assimilation TasksTime Scale (Years)Goals

Projects 2 6 10Quantify Observing System Errors

Develop generic representation of observation error

Utilise high volume datasets

Develop techniques to assimilate high resolution observations

Develop techniques to exploit hyper spectral sounders

Use of Satellite Observations

Develop techniques to use satellite data over land and in cloudy regions

Assimilation of physical processes

Develop new methods for assimilation of active sensor data

Background error covariance

Test and evaluate flow dependent models of background error in 3DVar and 4DVar

Methods for cycling flow-dependent background errors

Develop and test Kalman-filter and other ensemble-based data assimilation schemes

Quality Control Develop and test adaptive quality control algorithms

Model Uncertainty Develop method to incorporate model uncertainty into assimilation algorithms

Design Observational Networks

Develop techniques for the optimal design of observing networks

Test and evaluate network design Redesign of the global observing network

Refine targeting and adaptive observing strategies

Determine targeting and adaptive observing strategies using OSEs and OSSEs

Evaluate impact of strategies on forecast error

Determine role of targeting and adaptive observing in redesign of the global observing network

Generalise existing strategies

Develop a generalized observing strategy for flow regimes dominated by physical processes

Test and evaluate observing strategies in TReCs

Complete Design of Data Assimilation System

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Social and Economic Applications

Time Scale (Years)GoalsProjects 2 6 10High Impact Weather Forecasts

Develop and maintain a database of high impact forecasts

Maintain database

Advanced Forecast Verification Methods

Develop user specific verification methods

Provide a suite of verification measures for specific forecast applications

Cost and Benefits of Improved Forecasts

Determine which forecast improvements will have the greatest value to societies

Determine the marginal value of high-impact forecasts

Preliminary estimate of the cost and benefit of proposed THORPEX forecast improvements

Quantitative measure of value sufficient to inform government policies and business re-engineering

Quantify benefits of improved forecasting systemGeneralise application to societies and economies worldwide

Generalise application to societies and economies worldwide

User Specific Weather Products

Expand use of current forecast products in social and economic sectorsBeta-test new products

Suite of new decision support and consequence assessment tools

Full utilisation of probabilistic information in decision-making

Global Education and Capacity Building

Refine WMO training programmes Facilitate transfer of techniques and skills to forecast centresthroughout the world

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Global Interactive Forecast System

Time Scale (Years)GoalsProjects 2 6 10

Global Interactive Forecasting System (GIFS)

Use research conducted in TIGGE to inform the development of operational forecast systems

THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)

Complete a prototype global multi-model ensemble system consisting of at least 3 models

Provide access to TIGGE database for general THORPEX research (including predictability and societal and economic impacts

Complete evaluation of multi-model ensemble system and use results to optimise the GIFS through a series of quasi-operational demonstration projects

Start to use system in real-time to drive regional ensembles in a series of demonstration projects

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Intersection with Climate Prediction

Time Scale (Years)Goals

Projects 2 6 10Coordinate development of observing systems for weather and climate prediction

Compare observing needs of weather and climate forecasting

Develop synergistic observing practices for weather and climate forecasting

Optimize observing networks for weather and climate forecasting

Development of unified weather-climate data assimilation and prediction system

Study coupled ocean-land-atmosphere model initialization and model drift problems

Demonstrated improvement in forecast skill in critical range through use of atmosphere, land and oceanic initial conditions

Convergence of weather and climate forecasts: Coupled ocean-atmosphere-land forecast model application on scales of 1-70 days

Develop tools for seamless socio-economic applications of weather and climate forecast

Compare weather and climate forecast applications

Develop application tools suitable with both weather and climate forecasting

Demonstrate value of seamless weather-climate forecast applications

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Initial THORPEX Projects

• THORPEX Observing System Tests– AMMA 2006– Cosmic data assimilation 2006+

• THORPEX Regional Campaigns– Atlantic (EUCOS ongoing)– Sahara Dust (impact on cyclogenesis)– Sand and Dust Storm 2005-2015 (participant)

• Demonstration Projects– Beijing 2008 Multi-model Global Ensemble/Mesoscale

Ensemble 2006-2008– ACMAD

• Major Campaigns– International Polar Year 2007/2008

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Demonstration Projects• Demonstrate social and

economic benefits that would result from the operational implementation of new forecasting tools and techniques– Disaster mitigation and

reduction in developing and least developed countries (e.g., Flood response)

– Economic efficiency (e.g. Energy generation)

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THORPEX Management Structure agreed at ICSC-4

Other TCs

Management Group

CBS

TAB SAB

ShAP Regional Committees

InternationalProgramme

Office

Data Policyand Management

WG

Global InteractiveForecasting System

WG

PredictabilityDynamical Processes

WG

ObservingSystem

WG

Data AssimilationObserving Strategies

WG

Societal&EconomicApplications

WG

Executive Board

THORPEX ICSC

SSC/WWRP

CAS

WGNE

JSC WCRP RAs

Executive Council ICSU EB IOC EC

Congress

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Current & Next Steps

• ICSC-4 has approved TIP• Next…

– Establish Executive Board• Recruit Executive Director

– Establishing Science Advisory Board• Select Co-chairs

– Establish Technical Advisory Board• Select Co-chairs with WMO/CBS

– Initial focus on• Greater involvement of Academic Community• TIGGE

– Workshop in March 2005• IPY

– National and Individual Plans in place by Jan 2005• Demonstration projects

– B08• TOSTs

– AMMA• TReCs

– Atlantic (EUCOS lead)

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Thanks to…

Overview of THORPEX Planning OrganisationExpert GroupWMO SecretariatDevelopment of TIPPurpose of Implementation PlanTIP StructureTHORPEX GoalsTHORPEX Will…By…Research will focus on…Predictability and Dynamical ProcessesObserving System tasksData Assimilation TasksSocial and Economic ApplicationsGlobal Interactive Forecast SystemIntersection with Climate PredictionInitial THORPEX ProjectsDemonstration ProjectsTHORPEX Management Structure agreed at ICSC-4Current & Next StepsThanks to…