Thom Achterbosch

European Visions & Options Workshop, Valletta, Malta, 26-27 February 2015

FOODSECURE Interdisciplinary Research Project

to Explore the Future of Global Food and Nutrition Security

Demand Population (growth) Income (growth, urbanization) Poverty and inequality Consumer behavior, waste Bio-energy

Trade and Markets Supermarkets Protection Financial markets Food stocks

Supply = Land (degradation) Water (scarcity) Productivity & technology Labor & farm structure Climate change

The 2050 world food equation is risk prone

J. von Braun, ZEF 2013

MDG/SDG: End hunger and malnutrition

FAO 2012

FAO 2014 global hunger index 2014

Need to deal with ecosystem boundaries

FOODSECURE objectives

The objective is to design effective and sustainable strategies for assessing and addressing the challenges of food and nutrition security.

FOODSECURE provides a set of analytical instruments to experiment, analyse, and coordinate the effects of short and long term policies related to achieving food and nutrition security (FNS).

• 19 research institutes in 12 countries

• € 8 mln subsidy from EC • Duration 2012-17 • Building capacity and community of

researchers and stakeholders

Key features

European Commission (and Parliament) Regional organizations in developing countries Civil society and private sector

Targeted stakeholders for impact

• Determinants: understanding the causes of hunger and malnutrition

• Future: tools for crisis surveillance and foresight

• Guidance on a policy framework, EU and beyond

FOODSECURE research components

Organization of work

Price volatility modelling toolbox

Long-term scenario modelling toolbox

Food crisis surveillance & management

EU policies for food security &

sustainable development

Determinants of hunger and malnutrition

Pooling data and modelling resources

Vision Development & Stakeholder Engagement

Determinants Future Guidance

Availability Accessibility Utilization Stability Per capita total amount of net calories available in a given country

Net Share of energy supply (calories) derived from cereals, roots and tubers

Average supply of protein derived from animal sources

Average share of food expenditures in total household expenditures

Prevalence rate of undernourished people

Depth of food deficit

Prevalence rate of stunting for children under 5 years

Prevalence rate of underweight among children under 5 years

Diet Diversity Score

Prevalence of overweight and obese adults

Prevalence rate of anaemia among women of reproductive age and children under 5 years

Per capita food supply variability

Domestic Food Price Volatility

Pangaribowo et al, 2013

Countries with overlapping food security concerns?

Source: Gerber et al. 2013

Food and nutrition security Economic development Agriculture

Infrastructure Political stability

• Economic and biophysical • stochastic and deterministic models • Covers a timescale of 3 months to 2050

Analytical models to support early warning and policy analysis

Nutrition (kCal) outcomes, alternative futures

Soybean excessive food price variability Early Warning System

Long-term modelling (WP7), with input from stakeholder community

Determinants

Future

Guidance

• The purpose is to support EU policy makers and other stakeholders in the design of consistent, coherent, long-term FNS strategies. − Agriculture

− Trade

− Agricultural R&D

− Climate change

− Environment

− Development aid

Policy Guidance

Thank you! www.foodsecure.eu

For questions please contact:

thom.achterbosch@wur.nl