THIS WEEK’S MAGAZINE 1. Are REITs The Right Choice?
Transcript of THIS WEEK’S MAGAZINE 1. Are REITs The Right Choice?
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Copyright © 2013 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
THIS WEEK’S MAGAZINE Week of May 6
1. Are REITs The Right Choice? REIT P.2 REIT
2. The Trader P.4
PER
3. Doubling Down On Macau P.7
4. Thai Banks On The Rise P.9
5. Fed Hedges Ahead Of Jobs Report FRB P.11
6. Preview P.12
7. Up & Down Wall Street P.14
8. The Market’s Internal Quarrel P.16
9. Technology Stocks Shake Off Weeks Of Bad News P.18
10. Does Japan’s Revival Have Legs? P.21
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1. Are REITs The Right Choice? REIT REIT
REIT
REIT
REIT
90REIT
REIT 307
REIT
REITREIT
REITREIT
REIT
1960REIT
REIT 7575 REIT
REIT HCP
HST 1985 1993WY
CXWCBS PENN
REITREIT
REIT
REIT ETFREIT VNQ 2 23 S&P500
19 REIT S&P500REIT FFO REIT
20 S&P500
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15 REIT2.8 REIT
S&P500 37 2 29S&P500 2.3 3
100
REITREIT
REIT ETF 4.7KBW KBWY 4.4 IQ U.S.
ROOF
REITREIT
REIT
REIT
2005
MCD
3
REIT
2.1 BA 3.8MRK 4.1 BNS 2.2
HON
HCP Inc (HCP) Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST) Weyerhaeuser Co (WY)
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Corrections Corp of America (CXW) Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN) Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)
PowerShares KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT Portfolio (KBWY)
Indexiq Etf Tr (ROOF) McDonald's Corp (MCD)
Boeing Co (BA) Merck & Co Inc New (MRK) Honeywell International Inc (HON)
3
By JACK HOUGH (Source: Dow Jones)
2. The TraderPER
2
30 NY 1 50001 5000
S&P500 1600
4 16 50007.6 7.5 2008
2013 5
NY 1.8 1 4973 96 S&P500 2 1614.42S&P500 13
3 3378.63 2000 2.1954.42
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12 17 2013 10
2013
CIOS&P500 2013
16601426 12 31
1660
PER
S&P500 1 EPS 110PER 15
PER17 18
1 24 5
S&P5001615 1650 1675
1
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CAT 11 80
2 1002.7 86.98 18 24
2 4 23
115 9000 8 8000
EPS 2.37 1.31 1.402013 600 680
570 610 EPS 7 97
1
20 58 7500 7
2013 402014 50
4
8.5 11.2
200880
2.4100
2008 2009
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Friday's Close
Week's Change
Week's % Chg. Last
Week Week
Earlier DJ Industrials 14973.96 + 261.41 + 1.78 NNYSE Advances 2,398 2,375 DJ Transportation 6218.90 + 103.01 + 1.68 Declines 785 783 DJ Utilities 529.30 – 2.73 – 0.51 Unchanged 40 61 DJ 65 Stocks 5135.14 + 66.77 + 1.32 New Highs 789 570 DJ US Market 405.90 + 8.07 + 2.03 New Lows 54 75 NYSE Comp. 9340.47 + 170.57 + 1.86 3,398.3 3,392.3 Amex Comp. 2431.03 + 32.90 + 1.37 DDollar (Finex spot index) 82.13 82.50 S & P 500 1614.42 + 32.18 + 2.03 TT-Bond (CBT nearby futures) 132-275 133-140 S & P MidCap 1165.07 + 23.87 + 2.09 CCrude Oil (NYM light sweet crude) 95.61 93.00 S & P SmallCap 535.24 + 12.24 + 2.34 IInflation KR-CRB (Futures Price
Index) 290.17 285.40
Nasdaq 3378.63 + 99.37 + 3.03 GGold (CMX nearby futures) 1464.30 1453.60 Value Line (arith.) 3613.74 + 80.72 + 2.28 Russell 2000 954.42 + 19.17 + 2.05 DJ US TSM 16816.72 + 334.54 + 2.03
Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
3
By VITO J. RACANELLI (Source: Dow Jones)
3. Doubling Down On Macau
PMI 3 50.9 4 50.6
4 13.2 14.4 110
MPEL27. SJM 880. BI
24LVS MGM MGM
23 MGM 27 WYNN 22
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RBC10
MGCEX
VIP
1928.9
61 71VIP
2.9 2.47
In U.S. Dollars*
Index Week's % Chg. 5/2 2013 Range Index Week's
% Chg. 5/2 2013 Range
Argentina 1.0 1339.1 1485.5 1158.2 MMexico -1.6 7318.5 7771.7 7116.8 Brazil Free 0.6 2673.2 2842.0 2570.0 MMorocco** -1.9 313.0 322.6 300.4 Chile 0.1 2412.9 2600.7 2366.3 PPakistan** 1.2 106.4 108.1 95.6 China Free** 0.9 60.4 66.0 57.4 PPeru** -2.7 1340.7 1681.2 1316.4 Colombia** -1.7 1193.3 1393.5 1175.2 PPhilippines 1.9 592.3 592.4 488.3 Czech Republic*** 3.1 367.9 439.8 351.5 PPoland** 1.5 799.6 926.0 784.0 Egypt*** 0.7 563.2 671.0 537.0 RRussia*** 0.5 752.1 862.8 718.1 Hungary*** 4.6 520.3 579.4 478.8 SSo. Africa 2.2 529.7 586.7 496.9 India** 2.3 441.7 451.5 403.7 SSri Lanka** 0.5 239.4 239.9 211.2 Indonesia -0.7 1008.0 1025.3 879.0 TTaiwan 2.0 283.3 283.3 263.9 Israel** -1.2 189.4 201.1 182.8 TThailand -0.2 466.2 470.8 420.8 Jordan -1.9 100.0 111.9 100.0 TTurkey 5.5 716.1 716.1 606.4 Korea 1.0 400.0 440.7 382.2
Base: Jan. 1, 1988 = 100 * Adjusted for foreign exchange flucuations relative to the U.S. $ ** Base: Jan. 1, 1993 = 100 *** Base: Jan. 2, 1995 = 100 Source: Morgan Stanley Capital Int'l Perspective, Geneva
Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd (MPEL)
Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. (HK:27)
SJM Holdings Ltd. (HK:880)
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Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS) Mgm Resorts International (MGM) Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)
Mirae Asset Discovery Fds ASIA GRT CNM A (MGCEX)
Sands China Ltd. (HK:1928)
3
By BEN LEVISOHN (Source: Dow Jones)
4. Thai Banks On The Rise
1534 60
42
20
30 27PER 11 12.8
13.2 19 1220
13 10
ITD. 3 3 47
GDP 680 5.8
KBANK. 22 254
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8.50 1 32
PER 11 19 16
KTB.27
31.35 54
1.1 2 1.51.6%
SCB.
20 15 16
23PER 12.6
Italian-Thai Development PCL (BTH:ITD)
Kasikornbank PCL (BH:KBANK) Krung Thai Bank PCL (TH:KTB)
Siam Commercial Bank PCL (TH:SCB)
3
By ASSIF SHAMEEN (Source: Dow Jones)
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5. Fed Hedges Ahead Of Jobs Report FRB
FRB
FRB 3FOMC 850
28 8000
FRB
FRB
4 16 5000
2 3 7.5
TF
10 11.669
1.745
5.124
5
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FRB
4
2 3FRB 2015 2016
LPL 1950
10 1950 2.4 19504.7 1.5
By MICHAEL ANEIRO (Source: Dow Jones)
6. Preview
7 12 6.8
9 100.93 2.93
3.9310 1.7
2006
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2005 2.5
Yields (%) When Issued*
Yields (%) Last Auction
290 3 0.051 0.050 240 6 0.081 0.080
320 3 0.330 0.342 240 10 1.742 2.046 160 30 2.960 3.180
*
5 6
FRB
TSN 1 EPS45
5 7
3 JOLTS 3 MFR 160
DIS WFM
3 TMT
WU 8
SEC SEC
5 8
MBA 5 3 2 MPC 9
REITARPI IPO 3 100
FRB
5 9
5 4 MFR 32 400033
3 0.4
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DISHPCLN
S Q IPO
7 5000 AMR 32 5000
IMF
5 10
4 4 591
FRB
7 G7
By CHRISTOPHER C. WILLIAMS (Source: Dow Jones)
7. Up & Down Wall Street
60 the Byrds
APO CEO
15 130
2007CEO
30
19801990
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BX 6IPO 2007 6 25
31 38 20094 21 98 IPO
29
AAPL 170
iPhone0.45 3
92
5 3250 3
IBM IBM 0.45 3
7 1.652
II 5.12
CNOOC CEO40 6
35 160 54.95 10 6 10 4
5.50 10 1.16
ECB0.25 0.5
FOMC 850
4 16 5000
11 4000
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7.6 7.5 7.57 7.51
0.4
U-6 13.8 13.9 730
6000 29 3000
40.4
Apollo Global Mgmt Llc (APO) Blackstone Group LP (The) (BX) Apple Inc (AAPL)
International Business Machines (IBM) CNOOC Ltd (CEO)
3
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH (Source: Dow Jones)
8. The Market’s Internal Quarrel
1
4 16 50007
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ATACX
AAPL170 114 1 S&P500
BMO
XOM
FRBECB ECB 0.75 0.5
50 80
UNP KSU PER KSU 25 UNP KSU15 KSU
20
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Managed Portfolio Ser ATAC INFLA INV (ATACX)
Apple Inc (AAPL) Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)
Union Pacific Corp (UNP) Kansas City Southern (KSU)
3 ATACX 1
By KOPIN TAN (Source: Dow Jones)
9. Technology Stocks Shake Off Weeks Of Bad News
12 S&P500 13 2 21
7.9 S&P500 7.5 2
DELL
MSFT
SNPS
IDC1 PC
PC
1-3F5 FFIV 4 4 1-3
4 16 INTC 18
GOOG
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TI TXN 4 23 AAPLAMZN
FB 1
JDS
JDSU15 4 23
11 2 21 22 1618 9
PKT 27YELP 27
AMD 1 36
IBM IBMPC
PC PC
26CRM
2
5 16 CEOPC
QCOM NVDA PC
PER 12 112014 PER 10 JDS
INFN CIEN PERPER
5
Dell Inc (DELL) Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Synopsys Inc (SNPS)
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F5 Networks Inc (FFIV) Intel Corporation (INTC) Google Inc (GOOG)
Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) Apple Inc (AAPL) Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)
Facebook Inc (FB) JDS Uniphase Corp (JDSU) Procera Networks Inc (PKT)
Yelp Inc (YELP) Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) International Business Machines (IBM)
Salesforce.com Inc (CRM) QUALCOMM Inc (QCOM) NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)
Infinera Corp (INFN) CIENA Corp (CIEN)
3
By TIERNAN RAY (Source: Dow Jones)
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10. Does Japan’s Revival Have Legs?
4 209
20
J.
4 246 104
CPAWX29 35
12
2 T.
PRJPX 237203
CPAWX8309 63
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PER 14FIGRX
CIO
MJFOX5 FIGRX
Columbia Fds Ser Tr I PAC ASIA CL W (CPAWX)
T Rowe Price Int:Japan (PRJPX) JP:7203
(JP:8309) Fidelity Intl Discvry (FIGRX) Matthews Asia:Japan (MJFOX)
3 CPAWX) 1
By STEVE GARMHAUSEN (Source: Dow Jones)
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Special News Reports
January 14 ETFs Quarterly Report 14 Mutual Funds Quarterly Report 21 The Barron’s Roundtable, Part 1 21 Davos World Economic Forum 28 The Barron’s Roundtable, Part 2 28 Davos World Economic Forum 28 Hedge Funds Monthly Report
February 4 The Barron’s Roundtable, Part 3 11 Fund Families Special Report 18 America’s Top 1,000 Advisors: State-by-State 25 MLP Roundtable 25 Hedge Funds Monthly Report
March 4 Barron’s PENTA: Where the Wealthy Are Investing Now 11 Review of Online Brokers 18 ETFs Roundtable 25 World’s Best CEOs 25 Hedge Funds Monthly Report
April 8 ETFs Quarterly Report 8 Mutual Funds Quarterly Report 15 America’s Top 100 Financial Advisors 22 Big Money Poll: Barron’s Survey of U.S. Money Managers 29 Hedge Funds Monthly Report
May 6 Barron’s 500: Best-Performing Companies 13 ETFs Roundtable 20 Barron’s PENTA: 100 Best-Performing Hedge Funds 27 Retirement: America’s Top 50 Annuities 27 Hedge Funds Monthly Report
June 3 America’s Top 100 Women Financial Advisors 10 The Barron’s Roundtable, Midyear Recap 17 Most-Respected Big Companies 24 Retirement 24 Hedge Funds Monthly Report
July 8 ETFs Quarterly Report 8 Mutual Funds Quarterly Report 15 America’s Top Advisory Teams 22 Barron’s ETFs Handbook 29 Hedge Funds Monthly Report
August 5 Best and Worst Run States 12 MLP Roundtable 19 America’s Top 100 Independent Financial Advisors 26 Hedge Funds Monthly Report
September 2 Equity Strategists’ Fall Outlook 16 Barron’s PENTA: Ranking Elite Wealth Management Firms 30 Hedge Funds Monthly Report
October 7 ETFs Quarterly Report 7 Mutual Funds Quarterly Report 21 Technology Outlook 28 Big Money Poll: Barron’s Survey of U.S. Money Managers 28 AOSI: Picks and Insights 28 Hedge Funds Monthly Report
November 4 Investing in Brazil 11 Retirement 18 ETFs Roundtable 25 Hedge Funds Monthly Report
December 2 Barron’s PENTA: Rating Philanthropies 9 Barron’s Favorite Stocks for 2014 16 Outlook 2014: What’s Ahead for Stocks, Bonds & Mutual Funds 30 Hedge Funds Monthly Report
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THIS WEEK’S MAGAZINE BARRON'S COVER The Barron's 500 By JACQUELINE DOHERTY Apple is No. 1 in our annual survey that honors stellar operating performance, followed by Wesco International, Western Digital, and DaVita HealthCare Partners. Barron's 500 Bargains? Perhaps By JACQUELINE DOHERTY Here's a look at the cheapest stocks among the Barron's 500, based on price/earnings ratios and current-fiscal-year earnings. Last year's cellar dwellers produced boffo investment returns in future months. Twilight of a Stock-Market Darling By ANDREW BARY Linn Energy's 7.5% dividend yield has supported the company's high unit price, even as its fundamentals have faded. If the payout is cut, look out below. Lots of Room Left to Climb By SANDRA WARD Cutbacks in military-cargo flights and international deliveries have hurt Atlas Air. But an upgraded fleet and more growth could take the stock up 60%. 1. Are REITs the Right Choice? By JACK HOUGH REITs are all the rave these days, with everything from billboard companies to casinos seeking to hop on board. But there are other ways to get income—with less risk. Consider Sun Communities and Retail Opportunity Investments—and also Honeywell and Merck. No Place Like Home By J.R. BRANDSTRADER Jeffrey Kolitch prefers growth to income, which is why his fund eschews most REITS. Top holdings include Starwood, Hyatt, Wynn Resorts, Capital Senior Living, and CBRE Group. Bullish on Community Banks By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS A veteran investor expects a wave of bottom-up consolidation to provide plenty of opportunities for investors. Innkeeper to the World By LESLIE P. NORTON Fritz van Paasschen is pushing his hospitality into the global marketplace, with a particular focus on emerging markets. Editorial Commentary From Wireless to Wired By THOMAS G. DONLAN Avoiding competition is television's key to future success. MARKETWEEK The Trader 2. Jobs Data Drive Stocks to Record Highs By VITO J. RACANELLI The April jobs report, which was expected to be weak, came in stronger than expected, and the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 hit records. A Vote of Confidence for UBS By JONATHAN BUCK A money manager's petition to split up the big Swiss bank doesn't merit consideration in light of recent gains. Emerging Markets 3. Betting on Macau Gaming By BEN LEVISOHN As China's economic data continues to show slowing growth, gamblers still flock to the city's casinos. How to play the odds on gaming stocks. 4. Thai Banks on the Rise By ASSIF SHAMEEN Last year the country's banks finally started to recover from the financial crisis. Their stocks still have room to move. Profiting From Apple's Buybacks By STEVEN M. SEARS The company's decision to increase its stock-repurchase program to $60 billion offers an opportunity for sellers of the company's puts.
Current Yield 5. Fed Hedges Ahead of Jobs Report By MICHAEL ANEIRO The central bank's policy committee granted itself permission to move in any direction; then the monthly jobs report beat expectations. An Awful Lot of Coffee in Brazil By ALEXANDRA WEXLER Price of arabica slumps on glut of beans, weakness in demand, and roasters' willingness to use more robusta in blends. DEPARTMENT •Charting the Markets • Market Watch •Research Reports •Review 6. Preview •Follow Up •Insider Transactions •Corrections Amplification •Mailbag •13DFilings COLUMNS Up and Down Wall Street 7. A Time To Sell…and Borrow By RANDALL W. FORSYTH Leon Black, head of Apollo Global Management, has seen this movie before and knows how it will end. 8. The Market's Internal Quarrel By KOPIN TAN As central banks pump money into economies around the globe, investors still are making money on investments geared to deflation. Facebook's Results Fail to Impress Facebook racked up big gains in mobile advertising, but at the expense of its core desktop business. With a market value of $71 billion and annualized mobile revenue of just $1.5 billion, that's hardly something to celebrate. Scalped by Robots, One Follicle at a Time By JIM MCTAGUE Three years after the Flash Crash, Washington has done little to remove the peril of rapid trading by computers. No Real Shadow on Jobs By GENE EPSTEIN The media find surprises and shadows in monthly employment reports, but growth has been merely mediocre, though not weak. And language sloppiness puts a wrong label on the Social Security "trust fund." 9. Technology Stocks Shake off Weeks of Bad News By TIERNAN RAY Technology stocks have been rallying all year despite challenging economic times and mediocre earnings. But valuations are still attractive and investors seem bullish enough to drive share prices even higher. A Boutique for Sophisticated Options Traders By THERESA W. CAREY TradingBlock Professional offers unique routing and advanced scanning tools. ETFs + Preferreds = Danger By CHRIS DIETERICH Passive funds have shares particularly vulnerable to an interest-rate rise. 10. Does Japan's Revival Have Legs? By STEVE GARMHAUSEN Skeptics abound, but some money managers see reasons for long-term hope, including reforms favored by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Netflix's Rise and Fall and Rise Again Edited by GENE EPSTEIN The epic story of how Reed Hastings built a $12 billion company. Is getting sidetracked such a bad thing? Yes and no. Plus, politically correct speech on campus and Ayn Rand on selfishness. Three Corporate Giants Hike Payouts By SHIRLEY A. LAZO Dividend increases by American Express (15%), IBM (12%) and PepsiCo (5.6%) complement hefty stock-repurchase plans.
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