This Way: Winter 2016
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Transcript of This Way: Winter 2016
Frontier is a private wealth advisory firm that collaborates and advocates
for you. We strive to leverage our in-house expertise
to develop and implement a unique path, empowering
confidence throughout your financial journey.
TRANSPARENTClear, Open, Accountable
We are authentic in our approach; you will always know
the what, why and how.
ADVOCATESBelievers, Supporters,
Champions
We strive to understand your financial goals and personal aspirations, enabling us to
become your trusted advisors.
ENGAGEDConnected, Collaborative,
Committed
We are here to serve you. Together, our success is based
on clear, open and honest communication.
RESOURCEFULCompetent, Innovative,
Imaginative
Through collaboration, we leverage our in-house expertise to develop a unique path toward
your financial success.
ON THE ECONOMIC FRONTIER: A LOOK AT THE U.S. ECONOMY ENTERING THE NEW YEARAt Frontier, we know you trust us to keep an eye on macroeconomic trends and gauge how they might impact your investments. Therefore, we offer a brief look at the U.S. economy and investment markets in order to keep you informed.
NEWS & NOTESUpdates and news from our the Frontier offices.
ON THE COVER
WINTER 2016
DEPARTMENTS
4
11
4
2016 TAX GUIDELINESIRS changes for 201611
10
NEWS YOU CAN USEInteresting By the Numbers statistics and a handy chart for shopping trends
10
FEATURE8
8
5 NEW YEAR’S FINANCIAL RESOLUTIONS FOR 2016 If you’re struggling with a resolution like losing weight, eating healthier or exercising more, here’s an idea: try making some New Year’s financial resolutions. And no, it’s not too late — any time is a good time to resolve to improve your personal finances.
@frontier_wealth linkedin.com/company/frontier-wealth-managementfacebook.com/frontierwealthmanagement
4 | WINTER 2016 FRONTIER WEALTH MANAGEMENT
A LOOK AT THE U.S. ECONOMY ENTERING THE NEW YEAR
A TURBULENT AND EVENTFUL YEARThe year that just passed will probably go down as one of the more eventful and turbulent years in recent memory from an economic and investing standpoint. For example, 2015 was the year when:
¢ The Federal Reserve finally reversed course on its policy of holding interest rates at the near-zero level they’ve been at since 2008.
¢ The economy chugged along with steady but unimpressive growth for the sixth consecutive year.
¢ The stock market mostly moved sideways, finishing the year essentially flat.
¢ Oil and gasoline prices plunged to levels we haven’t seen in a decade, providing a pleasant surprise for consumers at the pump, but wreaking havoc on the energy industry and the stock market.
¢ The world’s second-largest economy, China, experienced major slowdowns in growth, sending economic tremors throughout the rest of the world, including here in the U.S.
At Frontier, we know everyone doesn’t have time to keep an eye on macroeconomic trends and gauge
how they might impact their investments. Therefore, we offer the following look at the U.S. economy
and investment markets in order to keep you informed about the most important trends that could
affect your finances and portfolio.
WINTER 2016 | 5
FED FINALLY PULLS THE TRIGGERLet’s start by discussing the Fed’s increase in the benchmark federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.5 percent. The first interest rate hike by the Fed since 2006, this move was anticipated throughout most of the year, so it was a little anti-climactic when it finally happened on Dec. 16.
The rate hike got a lot of attention in the media, but practically speaking, it hasn't had a huge impact on most people — at least not yet. In comparison, it was 5.25 percent in 2007 before the Fed started lowering rates to try to stimulate the economy.
The shift in the Fed’s decade-long stance of holding interest rates at near-zero levels is more important than the impact of such a small rate increase. In announcing the hike, Fed officials
signaled that they believe the economy has strengthened enough to withstand higher interest rates. This, of course, is good news from an economic standpoint.
What the Fed does with regard to interest rates this year will depend primarily on how the economy performs. Its plan is to continue raising rates gradually by about 1 percentage point per year over the next three years, eventually bringing the federal funds rate up to 3.3 percent by 2019. However, if the economy continues to sputter and the stock market experiences volatility similar to what we have experienced so far in 2016, the Fed could abandon this plan. So it looks like 2016 will be another year of careful “Fed watching” by economists, investors and pundits.
'04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15
iPhone debuts
Last Fed rate hike
Barack Obama elected
China becomes second-biggest
economy
Obamareelected
Osama bin Laden
killed
Janet Yellen
becomes Fed Chair
Rate raised by
0.25%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0
IT'S BEEN A MIGHTY LONG TIMETHE LAST TIME THE FED RAISED INTEREST RATES, FEW PEOPLE BROWSED THE WEB ON THEIR
PHONE, AND YOU'D PROBABLY NEVER HEARD OF TV'S MOST FAMOUS FAMILY
— MONEY.COM. SOURCES: ST. LOUIS FEDERAL RESERVE. MONEY RESEARCH
6 | WINTER 2016 FRONTIER WEALTH MANAGEMENT
SLOW GROWTH CONTINUESThe good news when it comes to growth is that the U.S. economy experienced its sixth consecutive year of growth in 2015, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 2.4 percent last year.
The bad news is that this is well below the historical U.S. growth rate of 3.3 percent. In fact, last year was the 10th straight year in which U.S. GDP didn’t crack 3 percent, the longest such stretch since the end of World War II.
Unfortunately, 2015 was also a lackluster year for investors. In fact, an article published on BloombergBusiness.com on Dec. 28 called 2015 “The Year Nothing Worked: Stocks, Bonds, Cash Go Nowhere.” For the year, the S&P 500 lost 0.73 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.23 percent. The NASDAQ was a rare bright spot, gaining 5.73 percent last year (excluding dividends).
Though the final year-end numbers for the major stock market indices were essentially flat, this doesn’t mean that 2015 was non-volatile. During a two-week period in August, the S&P 500 plunged by 11 percent, officially entering correction territory as the economic problems in China first became apparent. The market bounced back quickly, though, with the S&P 500 rebounding about 9.5 percent between Aug. 25 and the end of the year.
According to the BloombergBusiness.com article, 2015 was only the second year since 1995 in which one of the four main asset classes — stocks, bonds, cash and commodities — didn’t deliver returns of more than 10 percent. In addition to the S&P 500’s tepid -0.73 percent return, the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond finished the year -2 percent, the CRB Commodity Index -23 percent and 3-month Treasury bills were yielding a paltry 0.11 percent (excluding dividends).
Many analysts believe that uncertainty over the timing of the Fed’s interest rate hike served as a drag on the financial markets throughout most of last year. With the Fed now having played its hand and given indications about its plans going forward, this could potentially help smooth the waters for 2016.
4%
INDEX FUND ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT
THE INVESTING WAR IS OVER AND THE INDEX FUND WON
Some active mutual fund managers may know how
to make money in today’s market turmoil. But fewer
customers are giving them the chance to prove it.
FUND ASSET FLOWS 2008 – 2015
Net purchases of index funds
INDEX FUND SHARE OF MUTUAL FUND MARKET
34%
1995 2015
Net outflows of active funds
$1 TRILLION
$600 BILLION
$4 TRILLION
$55 BILLION
1995 2015
— Source: Fortune.com
WINTER 2016 | 7
LOOKING OVERSEASWhile the U.S. economy is trudging along with solid, yet unspectacular, growth, the rest of the world continues to lag behind. It’s becoming increasingly clear that China, parts of Europe and many emerging markets are dealing with protracted economic weaknesses. These served as another headwind that markets had to struggle against last year, and likely will continue to struggle against this year.
China has received the bulk of the headlines with regard to struggling overseas economies. China’s red-hot economy has cooled considerably, with growth slowing from double-digits over most of the past quarter-century to just 6.9 percent during the third quarter of last year. Beijing plans to set a new five-year average annual growth target of 6.5 percent — a tacit acknowledgement of the new economic reality China is facing.
The Chinese stock markets continue to take a beating, with reverberations being felt all over the world. In early January, trading on the Shanghai stock exchange was halted after just 30 minutes when the main index plunged 7 percent. China continues to devalue the yuan against the U.S. dollar in an effort to boost overseas demand for Chinese goods. But this also sends troubling economic signals to investors.
Meanwhile, emerging market economies like Turkey, South Africa and Brazil, which have economies correlated with China’s, are facing their own challenges. They benefited from low interest rates for years, but with rates on the rise, investors are starting to pull money out and their borrowing costs are rising. Making matters worse, their debts are denominated in a strengthening U.S. dollar.
PLUNGING OIL AND GAS PRICESOne of the biggest economic stories of last year was plunging oil and gasoline prices. Weak global demand for oil and high supply volume pushed the price of Brent crude oil down to $37.08 a barrel at the end of last year. For the sake of comparison, the price was $115.90 a barrel a year and a half earlier in June of 2014, according to NASDAQ. Meanwhile, low oil prices have pushed the national average price for gasoline down to below $2 per gallon for the first time since 2009.
Cheap oil and gas is a double-edge sword. Of course, it’s great news for us as consumers, as every dollar we don’t spend at the pump is a dollar we can spend on something else. And there’s also a psychological advantage to low gas prices — we tend to feel better about our financial situation when each fill-up costs us less.
However, to the extent that low prices reflect weak demand for oil, they are another sign of slow economic growth globally. Low oil prices are also damaging to oil-producing countries, energy companies and all of the ancillary industries that support the energy sector.
Of course, no one knows for certain what’s in store for the economy and investment markets for the remainder of 2016. Given the bumpy start in January, now is a good time to remember the importance of portfolio diversification and discipline when it comes to achieving your long-term financial and investing goals. u
$37.08
DECEMBER 2015
$115.90
JUNE 2014
FRONTIER WEALTH MANAGEMENT8 | WINTER 2016
This is one of the most common financial
resolutions, and for good reason: Excessive
and irresponsible debt is one of the biggest
hindrances to financial success for many
people. Think about it this way: Every dollar
that you’re paying toward bad debt is a
dollar that you can’t put toward a long-term
financial goal like retirement or your children’s
college educations.
NEW YEAR’S FINANCIAL RESOLUTIONS FOR 20165
This goes hand in hand with staying out of debt.
It won’t do you any good to manage your debt
effectively if you can’t control your spending.
Unlike the performance of your investment
portfolio or the rate of inflation, your
spending is the one financial variable in your
household that you can control. If you find
yourself consistently spending more money
Now that we're several weeks into
the new year, how are your New
Year’s resolutions coming along?
Despite the best of intentions, only about two-
thirds of people (64 percent) who make New
Year’s resolutions are still hanging in there
by the end of January. After six months, fewer
than half (46 percent) have still maintained
their resolutions.
If you’re struggling with a resolution like
losing weight, eating healthier or exercising more,
here’s an idea: Try making some New Year’s
financial resolutions. And no, it’s not too late —
any time is a good time to resolve to improve your
personal finances.
Here are 5 financial resolutions that could help
make 2016 your best financial year ever:
MANAGE YOUR DEBT EFFICIENTLY1.
CONTROL YOURSPENDING2.
WINTER 2016 | 9
MAX OUT YOUR RETIREMENT SAVINGS3.
than you probably should, sit down with
your spouse and come up with a plan to curb
your spending and bring it more in line with
your income or retirement distribution goals.
EVALUATE YOUR ASSET ALLOCATIONS4.
PLAN YOUR CHARITABLE CONTRIBUTION STRATEGY.5.
Regardless of the type of retirement account you
have, resolve to contribute as much money as
you possibly can to the account in 2016. Divide
the annual contribution limit by 12 and then
have this much money automatically transferred
into your retirement account each month. Or if
you’re paid biweekly, divide the contribution
limit by 26.
Your investment portfolio is not something you
should place on auto-pilot. Instead, plan to sit
down with your financial advisor to take a fresh
look at your current asset allocations and confirm
that they are still in line with your risk tolerance
and time horizon.
Over time, the mix of asset classes in your
portfolio will shift as the markets fluctuate.
This will affect your asset allocation — or the
percentage of your portfolio that consists of
stocks, bonds and cash instruments. When this
happens, it may be necessary to sell some asset
classes and buy others to bring your portfolio
back into the right balance to meet your long-
term investing goals.
You may have goals for how much money you’d
like to earn this year. But have you thought about
how much money you’d like to give? Many people
haven’t. You may also reap significant tax benefits
by giving away money and assets to qualified
charitable organizations.
One strategy adopted by many individuals and
families is to give away a certain percentage of your
pre-tax income. For example, many people donate
10 percent of their income — this is sometimes
referred to as the tithe, which literally means “the
tenth,” or 10 percent. Resolve to give money to
causes you’re passionate about this year — or to
give away more money if you’ve been a consistent
giver in the past.
Alternatively, a Donor Advised Fund (DAF)
could be established and funded now, while both
the intended charity and associated distribution
could be selected later. DAFs have become more
popular due to the flexibility, simplicity and tax
advantages they offer. Assets you want to give
away would be transferred to a public charity
or financial institution that would establish and
manage the fund. In the meantime, you would
retain the right to advise the fund with respect to
its investments or charitable distributions.
Contact us if you’d like to discuss your
financial resolutions and how we can help you
achieve them. u
FRONTIER WEALTH MANAGEMENT10 | WINTER 2016
news you can use.
MONTH WHAT TO BUY GREAT 2015 DEALS
JANUARYTVs and electronics, bedding,
linens, cookware, fitness
equipment
35 percent off brand-name
HDTVs at Best Buy
FEBRUARYWinter apparel and
accessories, appliances,
furniture, housewares
60 percent off
mattresses at J.C. Penney
MARCHNon-Apple smartphones,
running shoes, team apparel
53 percent off running shoes
at Joesnewbalanceoutlet.com
APRILHome, garden, and auto
supplies; spring clothing
40 percent off Craftsman
tools at Sears
MAYHome furnishings,
home goods
60 percent off clearance at
Williams-Sonoma Décor
JUNETools and home
improvement
57 percent off tools at
Home Depot
JULYSwim wear, summer
entertaining, air conditioners
37 percent off LG air
conditioners on Amazon
AUGUST Laptops, summer clothing $100 off Apple laptops
SEPTEMBERHome furnishings, outdoor
and patio goods, last
generation iPhones/iPads
50 percent off Strathmore
patio furniture at Amazon
OCTOBERDenim and fall fashion,
camping gear, sports
equipment
50 percent off Levi's jeans
at Macy's
NOVEMBERVideo games, consumer
electronics
Two-for-one PS4 and
Xbox games at Best Buy
DECEMBER Gift cards, toys73 percent off close-out toys
at Target
2 in 10 ...NUMBER OF COLLEGE
STUDENTS AND YOUNG
PROFESSIONALS FAMILIAR
WITH THE FINANCIAL
ADVISOR PROFESSION
MONTH-BY-MONTH SHOPPING PLANYOU CAN SET A BUNCH OF CALENDAR ALERTS, OR YOU CAN PRINT THIS
HANDY CHART, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS WHEN TO MAKE ALL YOUR PURCHASESBY THE NUMBERS
— MONEY.COM. SOURCES: DEALNEWS. FATWALLET
75 ... PERCENTAGE OF
THE WORKFORCE THAT
WILL BE MADE UP
OF MILLENNIALS
BY YEAR 2025
70 ...PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE
TURNING 65 WHO
WILL NEED SOME
FORM OF LONG-
TERM CARE65
3 in 10 ...NUMBER OF
NEW HIRES
THAT COMES FROM
REFERRAL NETWORKS— JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL PLANNING
WINTER 2016 | 11
news & notes.
2016 tax guidelines.
ADDITION TO THE TEAM
T ammy Meier,
CPA, has
joined the Frontier
Team as a Tax
Specialist. Tammy
brings more than 20 years of
tax and accounting experience
to Frontier.
Tammy previously was
the owner of her own CPA
firm specializing in serving
closely held businesses and
their owners. She provided
tax compliance, planning and
consulting services, as well as
controller and CFO services
to her clients over the years.
Tammy also worked with
EKS&H and Eide Bailly CPA
firms in Denver, assisting with
more complicated tax return
preparation and review. She
began her career with Ernst &
Whinney, now Ernst & Young,
in both auditing and tax before
specializing in tax with Price
Waterhouse, now PwC. u
Tammy Meier, CPA
(Denver)
F rontier hosted a family Halloween bash, which included
trick-or-treating around the office, as well as putting
together "Happy Kits" for Children’s Mercy Hospital. Happy Kits
are composed of crayons, a coloring book, stickers and book.
We donated 48 Happy Kits and 48 Thanksgiving Craft Kits
to CMH in Kansas City. u
HALLOWEEN + PHILANTHROPY
MAXIMUM CONTRIBUTION LIMITS 2015 2016
401(k), 403(b), and most 457 Plans $18,000 $18,000
Age 50+ Catch-Up* Limit for 401(k), 403(b) and most 457 Plans $6,000 $6,000
SEP IRA $53,000 $53,000
SIMPLE IRAs $12,500 $12,500
Age 50+ Catch-Up* Limit for SIMPLE IRAs $3,000 $3,000
Roth IRA and Traditional IRA $5,500 $5,500
Age 50+ Catch-Up* Limit for IRAs $1,000 $1,000
GIFT & ESTATE TAX LIMITS 2015 2016
Gift Tax Exclusion** $14,000 $14,000
Federal Estate Tax Exemption*** $5,430,000 $5,450,000
In general, the retirement plan limitations
will not change from 2015 to 2016 because
the increase in the cost-of-living index did not
meet the statutory thresholds. However, the
federal estate tax exemption has increased from
$5,430,00 per person in 2015 to $5,450,000 per
person in 2016. u
IRS CHANGES FOR 2016
* The Age 50+ Catch-Up limit applies to those who obtained age 50 by Dec. 31 in the respective calendar tax year. ** Per donor, per recipient.*** Per decedent. With portability, the federal exemption amount for a couple was $10,860,000 in 2015 and is $10,900,000 for 2016.
The commentary is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to Frontier Wealth Management, LLC's
("Frontier") investment advisory services and general economic conditions are as of December 31, 2015. This information should
not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy or a recommendation for any security, market sector
or investment strategy. There is no guarantee that the information supplied is accurate or complete. Frontier is not responsible
for any errors or omissions, and provides no warranties with regards to the results obtained from the use of the information.
Nothing in this newsletter is intended to provide any legal, accounting or tax advice and Frontier does not provide such advice.
This information is subject to change without notice and should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice. You
should consult an attorney, accountant or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation.
KANSAS CITY 4435 Main Street, Suite 1100Kansas City, MO 64111815.753.5100
ALBANY515-B1 N. Westover BoulevardAlbany, GA 31707229.888.5346
DENVER10375 Park Meadows Drive, Suite 500 Lone Tree, CO 80124303.770.0154
ST. LOUIS1401 S. Brentwood Boulevard, Suite 925St. Louis MO 63144314.762.6800
WICHITA1625 N. Waterfront Parkway, Suite 150Wichita, KS 67206316.689.8333