This research was made possible by the generous funding of MSI & MAF-SLMACC
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Economic Impacts of GHG and Nutrient Reduction Policies in New Zealand
Adam Daigneault Landcare Research
Motu Climate Economics Research WorkshopWellington
20 March 2012
This research was made possible by the generous funding of MSI & MAF-SLMACC
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Motivation• Global market pressures to enhance farm output through
intensive farming practices (e.g., fertilizer, irrigation, etc.)• Intensive land-based enterprises are large contributors of
greenhouse gases (GHGs), nutrient and sediment runoff to waterways, etc.
• National level emissions trading scheme (ETS)• Targeted water policies at regional scale
– Nutrient reduction and increased irrigation• We use forest and agriculture regional model (NZ FARM) to
estimate impacts of two large catchments in NZ– Hurunui/Waiau catchment, South Island– Manawatu catchment, North Island
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Application• Estimate catchment-level impacts of imposing NZ-ETS
and/or nutrient reduction policy on agricultural production • Policy scenarios:
Baseline: No agricultural ETS, no nutrient constraintsAgETS: $25/tCO2e for all on-farm emissions/sequestrationNutrient: Catchment-level nutrient constraint at 80% of baselineAgETS_NUT: Agriculture ETS & nutrient constraint policy
ScenarioGHG
Price on Ag Activities($/tCO2e)
NutrientCaps
(tons)
Baseline None NoneAgETS $25.00 NoneNutrient None 80% baselineAgETS_NUT $25.00 80% baseline
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Total Area: 575,500 HA
Dryland Area:569,500 HA
Irrigated Area:6,000 HA
Manawatu Catchment
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Sub-Zones within Manawatu
Note: area differentiated by productive capability/land use classification
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Total Area:582,100 HA
Dryland Area:559,900 HA
Irrigated Area:22,200 HA
Hurunui/Waiau Catchment
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Sub-Zones within Hurunui/Waiau Catchment
Note: area differentiated by productive capability/land use classification
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Baseline Enterprise Mix
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Manawatu Baseline ResultsNet Revenue
($ million)Total GHGs
(tons)Net GHGs
(tons)N Leaching
(tons)P Leaching
(tons) $308.3 3,156,000 2,138,800 5,800 370
Minimal irrigation for dairy on flats
Sheep & beef dominant enterprise
DOC & scrub mostly in hills
Sequestration in native vegetation on scrub reduces net GHGs by about 15%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Manawatu Flats Manawatu Hills Tararua Flats Tararua Hills
thou
sand
hec
tare
s
Manawatu Baseline Catchment Enterprise Area
Natural/DOC
Scrubland
Dryland Other Pasture
Irrigated Other Pasture
Dryland Sheep and Beef
Irrigated Sheep and Beef
Dryland Dairy
Irrigated Dairy
Arable
Forest
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
ManawatuFlats
ManawatuHills
Tararua Flats Tararua Hills
tCO
2e
Manawatu Baseline GHGs
C Sequestration
CO2 Electricity
CO2 Fuel
N2O Fertilizer
N2O Grazing
N2O AWMS
CH4 Manure
CH4 Enteric
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Hurunui/Waiau Baseline ResultsNet Revenue
($ million)Total GHGs
(tons)Net GHGs
(tons)N Leaching
(tons)P Leaching
(tons) $250.3 1,531,000 924,000 3,040 45
Most irrigation on plains
Sheep & beef dominant enterprise
Dairy, arable & pine plantations in plains
DOC dominates hills
Forest carbon sequestration reduces net GHGs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
HurunuiHills
HurunuiPlains
HurunuiFoothills
Waiau Hills WaiauPlains
WaiauFoothills
thou
sand
hec
tare
s
Baseline Catchment Enterprise Area,
Natural/DOC
Scrubland
Dryland Other Pasture
Irrigated Other Pasture
Dryland Sheep and Beef
Irrigated Sheep and Beef
Dryland Dairy
Irrigated Dairy
Irrigated Arable
Forest
-400000
-300000
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
HurunuiHills
HurunuiPlains
HurunuiFoothills
WaiauHills
WaiauPlains
WaiauFoothills
tCO
2e
Hurunui/Waiau Baseline GHGs
C Sequestration
CO2 Electricity
CO2 Fuel
N2O Fertilizer
N2O Grazing
N2O AWMS
CH4 Manure
CH4 Enteric
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Net Catchment Revenue Impacts
Policies reduce revenue for all regions relative to baseline
Manawatu impacted more by AgETS
Major portion of lost revenue is on plains/flats
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
AgETS
Nutrient
AgETS_NUT
AgETS
Nutrient
AgETS_NUT
Man
awat
uHu
runu
i
% Chg Revenue
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Change in Aggregate Enterprise Area
Policies promote expansion of forests, scrub & arable land
Greater enterprise changes in Manawatu
Pastoral enterprises decrease with carbon price
Arable land becomes relatively more profitable because less GHG intensive
Nutrient policy limits conversion to arable
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
AgETS
Nutrient
AgETS_NUT
AgETS
Nutrient
AgETS_NUT
Man
awat
uHu
runu
i
Arable
Forest
Dairy
Sheep and Beef
Other Pasture
Scrubland
DOC
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Catchment-level GHG Impacts
Both Ag ETS & nutrient policy scenarios effective at reducing GHGs
Change in net GHGs dramatically higher because of expanded forest/scrub
Note: Net GHGs account for change in forest carbon sequestration
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
AgETS
Nutrient
AgETS_NUT
AgETS
Nutrient
AgETS_NUT
Man
awat
uHu
runu
i
% Chg Total GHG Emissions
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Breakout of GHGs (tons CO2e)• Proportion of
emissions roughly match latest national GHG inventory figures
• Emissions dominated by pastoral production
• Baseline forest carbon seq. primarily from native forests
• Policy scenario forest seq. from new pine or scrub land
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000Ba
selin
e
AgET
S
Nut
rient
AgET
S_N
UT
Base
line
AgET
S
Nut
rient
AgET
S_N
UT
Manawatu Hurunui/Waiau
thou
sand
tons
CO
2e
C Sequestration
CO2 Electricity
CO2 Fuel
N2O Fertilizer
N2O Grazing
N2O AWMS
CH4 Manure
CH4 Enteric
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Nutrient ImpactsAdding carbon price reduces nutrient loadings for Hurunui but not Manawatu
Manawatu Greater changes in P
Hur/Waiau Greater changes in N
Difference is area of key enterprises in catchment & mitigation options available
AgETS alone might not help meet nutrient loading targets
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
AgETS
Nutrient
AgETS_NUT
AgETS
Nutrient
AgETS_NUT
Man
awat
uHu
runu
i
% Chg P
% Chg N
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Key Impacts with Irrigation
Scenario Net Revenue(millions)
GHG Emissions
(tons CO2e)
N leaching (tons) P loss (tons) Irrigated Area
(ha)
BASELINE $250 1,531,000 3,057 45.9 31,800IRRIGATION 5% 13% 11% 2% 62%
IRR_GHG -10% -20% 1% -4% 62%IRR _NUT -3% -21% -20% -20% 41%
IRR_GHG_NUT -14% -38% -20% -20% 41%
• Irrigation without regulation increases production and revenue but also environmental outputs
• With GHG tax, emissions go down and nutrients are held around pre-irrigation levels
• With nutrient policy, GHGs reduced as much as nutrients with less revenue impact
- Less irrigation is taken up though as a result• With multiple regulation policy, significant reductions in all metrics
- Net revenue impacted almost as much as policy with no added irrigation
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Land Use – Irrigation and Policy• Nearly all irrigation
increases in Hurunui Plains
• Increases irrigated sheep and beef, dairy, arable
• Reduction in dry land sheep and beef, forest
• Environmental policies reduce dry land sheep and beef and dairy
• GHG policy –Changes in Plains
• Nutrients – Changes equally in Plains and Foothills
• Dual policy – similar to nutrients
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Thou
sand
Hec
tare
s
Catchment Land Use
Natural/DOC
Scrubland
Dryland Other Pasture
Irrigated Other Pasture
Dryland Sheep and Beef
Irrigated Sheep and Beef
Dryland Dairy
Irrigated Dairy
Irrigated Arable
Forest
-100 -50 0 50 100
Irrigation
IRR_GHG
IRR_NUT
IRR_GHG_NUT
Thousand Hectares
Land Use Change From Baseline
Forest
Irrigated Arable
Irrigated Dairy
Dryland Dairy
Irrigated Sheep and Beef
Dryland Sheep and Beef
Irrigated Other Pasture
Dryland Other Pasture
Scrubland
Natural/DOC
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GHG Emissions – Irrigation and Policy
• Irrigation increases GHGs, in 2 ways
─ Increase in farm based emissions
─ Decrease in forest carbon sink
• GHG policy reduces emissions and promote forest carbon sequestration
• Nutrient policy
promotes even more forestry
• Dual policy has most dramatic effect-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
thou
sand
tCO
2e C Sequestration
CO2 Electricity
CO2 Fuel
N2O Fertilizer
N2O Grazing
N2O AWMS
CH4 Manure
CH4 Enteric
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Summary• Co-benefits of nutrient reduction policy do exist at
catchment level• Analysis shows that there may not be a ‘win-win’
scenario for reduction in GHGs & nutrients with stand-alone policy– Nutrient policy reduces GHGs but not vice versa.– Results driven by enterprise & mitigation options in model
• Analysis shows that, unregulated, additional irrigation in Hurunui/Waiau could lead to more environmental outputs– Imposing additional policy levers could reduce some of these
impacts
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Questions?Adam Daigneault
EconomistLandcare Research
Auckland, New [email protected]
+64 09 574 4138