This document is proprietary to Project Consulting Group, Inc. and contains confidential information...
-
Upload
sydney-johns -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
2
Transcript of This document is proprietary to Project Consulting Group, Inc. and contains confidential information...
This document is proprietary to Project Consulting Group, Inc. and contains confidential information which is solely the property of Project Consulting Group, Inc. This document shall not be used, reproduced, copied, disclosed, and transmitted, in whole or in part, without the express consent of Project Consulting Group. 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
Project Parametric Estimating
Techniques for developing an Estimating Model That Works
Presented by:
Creg Schumann &
Joseph Kestel
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Agenda
Review Estimating Concepts and TerminologyEstimating MethodsEstimating Tools
InputsOutputs
Developing a Parametric ModelMQ & FA
(Many Questions & Few Answers)
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Estimating Concepts and Terminology
Top DownStart with a high level budget (effort, duration, etc.) Break down to the detail of “what” can be done
Bottom UpDetermine “what” must be built. Roll up the effort to higher level tasks/activities/phases
ComparativeCompare to similar projects and extrapolate (Niku 6, Primavera, MS Project Central, PM Office, Artemis, etc.)
ExpertExpert judgment methods such as Delphi, Wideband Delphi, Round Robin
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Estimating Tools
Parametric Modelhttp://www.ispa-cost.org/Models that define at a low level what must be built/accomplished/etc. and how that low level is translated into an estimate of effort, duration, cost, and schedule.Simplistic example: Five widgets must be produced, the team can produce 2.5 widgets in one day, one widget costs $1,000 to build (labor and material), two widget machines are available, 50% of construction time is added for machine maintenance.
3 days effort (1 for maintenance), 1.5 days duration, $5,000 cost
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Estimating ToolsCOCOMO Model
http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/index.htmlTakes size of work to be done, applies formulas with risk factors (scaling factors and effort multipliers) to determine person months of effort. Also can be used to determine potential duration and staffing models.
Function Point Modelhttp://www.ifpug.org/Method of providing size as input to other estimation models/tools (SEER/SEM, Cost Xpert, Construx Estimate, Estimate Pro, COCOMO, various Parametric Models, etc.)
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Inputs to Estimating ToolsRequirementsData (if available)
Corporate EffortBreakout
IndustryEffortBreakout
Risk FactorsEffort MultipliersScaling Factors
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Outputs from Estimating Tools
Completed Work Breakdown StructureUpdated RequirementsUpdated Risk AssessmentRevised Capability AssessmentInitial Resource Cost Estimates (Budget)
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Developing a Parametric Model
Our Goal:To develop a (parametric) model that would reduce the time to estimate project effort based on initial high-level project requirements
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Developing a Parametric Model
Our Objectives:Shorten the process from high-level requirements definition through to WBS generation
Estimate-to-Plan in nothing flat!
Utilize corporate and industry data to drive accuracy of the modelKeep it simple!
Users should be able to easily understand it and adjust it!
ProjectProfile
WBS
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Developing a Parametric Model
Identify Parametric OpportunityDesign a Preliminary Parametric ModelCalibrate and Validate the ModelIncorporate With Organizational Policies and ProcessesMaintain and Improve the Model
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Identify Parametric Opportunity
Where is Parametric Estimation Applicable?Where processes are reliable and repeatableWhere sufficient historical data exists to draw parametric relationshipsWhere sufficient industry data exists to draw parametric relationshipsWhere an organization is large enough to be able to take frequent advantage of such a model and promote maintenance of the model
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Design a Parametric Model
Our Process:Tie high-level requirements definition as input to estimating model
Assure that inputs are base on your business practices and nomenclatureAssure that input criteria are understood and well documented
ProjectProfile
EstimatingModel
WBS
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Design a Parametric Model
The Project Profile: “Identify the What”What are some typical inputs for your industry?
Software DevelopmentFinancial ServicesRetailConstructionUtility/TelecomGovernment
Please document inputs on the Breakout Session sheets
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Design a Parametric Model
Our Project Profile:
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Design a Parametric Model
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
TTS Pyramid Pyramid Pete
Detail Counting Area
Data Entry Low Average High Functional Area Data Entry
Screens 8 2 2 Tables Referenced 1-4 Data Elements 5-15 Data Elements
0 0 0 0-1 Low Low
0 0 0 2 Low Average
0 0 0 3+ Average High
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
Insert Row(s) Above This Holder 0 0 0 None
Data Entry Totals 8 2 2
Reports Low Average High Functional Area Reports
Reports 4 6 1 Tables Referenced 1-5 Data Elements 6-19 Data Elements
0 0 0 0-1 Low Low
0 0 0 2-3 Low Average
0 0 0 4 + Average High
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
Insert Row(s) Above This Holder 0 0 0 None
Reports Totals 4 6 1
Query Screens Low Average High Functional Area Queries
0 0 0 LOW:
0 0 0
0 0 0 AVG:
0 0 0
0 0 0 HIGH:
0 0 0
Insert Row(s) Above This Holder 0 0 0 None
Query Totals 0 0 0
Multiple and intricate data-element transformations
Multiple and complex file (table) references
Complexity
Complexity Key
One or two columns, Simple data transformations
Simple data transformations
Multiple columns with sub-totals
Multiple data-element transformations
List as detailed as you can the various areas of the application you are estimating. If you are unable to get to a very detailed level, use budgeting (10 avg. complex reports) and place that description in your project proposal.Use the tables to the right to judge complexity (low, avg., high).
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Design a Parametric Model
Our Process: “Build the Bridge”Create an estimating model that will feed tasks within the standardized WBS template
Establish relationships between estimate inputs and each deliverables-based task within your high-level WBS
Many-to-One relationshipsOne-to-One relationships
ProjectProfile
EstimatingModel
WBS
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Design a Parametric Model
Our Process: “Build the Bridge”Account for the variables:
Establish initial base hours or percentages of grouped hours to accomplish individual tasks
ProjectProfile
EstimatingModel
WBS
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Design a Parametric Model
Our Estimating Model:
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Design a Parametric Model123456789
1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041
AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AIFP Estimate Hours Est. Cost
3323.29 $172,810.94
Data Entry Forms Qty Factor UA-FP A-FP Hrs. Rate Est. CostLow 8 3 24 24.96 280.84 52 $14,603.74Avg 2 4 8 8.32 93.61 52 $4,867.91High 2 6 12 12.48 140.42 52 $7,301.87Total 12 44 45.76 514.88 $26,773.53
Reports Qty Factor UA-FP A-FP Hrs. Rate Est. CostLow 4 4 16 16.64 187.23 52 $9,735.83Avg 6 5 30 31.2 351.05 52 $18,254.68High 1 7 7 7.28 81.91 52 $4,259.42Total 11 53 55.12 620.19 $32,249.93
Tables (Logical) Qty Factor UA-FP A-FP Hrs. Rate Est. CostLow 21 7 147 152.88 1720.15 52 $89,447.91Avg 4 10 40 41.6 468.07 52 $24,339.57High 0 15 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Total 25 187 194.48 2188.22 $113,787.48
Import/Export Files Qty Factor UA-FP A-FP Hrs. Rate Est. CostLow 0 5 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Avg 0 7 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00High 0 10 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Total 0 0 0 0.00 $0.00
Query Screens Qty Factor UA-FP A-FP Hrs. Rate Est. CostLow 0 3 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Avg 0 4 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00High 0 6 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Total 0 0 0 0.00 $0.00
Objects Qty Factor UA-FP A-FP Hrs. Rate Est. CostLow 0 4 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Avg 0 5 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00High 0 7 0 0 0.00 52 $0.00Total 0 0 0 0.00 $0.00
Total UA/FP 284 295.36VAF: 1.04
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Design a Parametric ModelOur Process: “Create the Plan”
Utilize and update corporate WBS template Adjust for time reporting and earned value calculations (Develop a High-Level Stage/Activity WBS that eliminates confusing detail!)
Make the WBS deliverables-based!Manage the details in a detailed WBS outside of this WBS as a detailed checklist or task-listThis High-Level WBS should only be used for time reporting and earned value calculations
ProjectProfile
EstimatingModel
WBS
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Design a Parametric ModelOur WBS:
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Design a Parametric ModelProject Estimate Summary
Size Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic FP/PM Calc
Estimated Size (FP) 142 284 568 284
Equivalent KSLOC 5.37 10.74 21.47 10.74
Effort
Person Months Effort 9.60 19.97 41.55 22.36
Hours of Effort 1708.62 3195.47 5485.01 3577.95
Schedule
Duration (Months) 7.39 9.27 11.63 9.60
Staff
Average Staff 1.30 2.15 3.57 2.33
Productivity
Calculated FP/PM 14.8 14.2 13.7 12.7
Calculated FP/Hr 0.0831 0.0889 0.1036 0.0794
Staff Month 178 160 132 160
Cost
Blended Rate of $52 88,848.32$ 166,164.36$ 285,220.37$ 186,053.54$
Phase Estimate
Select Lifecycle: 1
Select Model: 2
Percent Amount Percent Amount
Proposal 7% 223.68 7% 0.65
Analysis and Design 17% 543.23 20% 1.85
Construction 45% 1437.96 50% 4.63
Test Execution 19% 607.14 20% 1.85
Implementation 12% 383.46 3% 0.28
100% 3195.47 100% 9.27
Effort (Hours) Schedule (Months)
Waterfall
Most Likely
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Calibrate and Validate the Model
Our Process:Establish and readjust the relationships between:
Conduct variance analysis and adjust the estimating tool as necessaryTest and revise as new projects are conducted and as data is gathered
ProjectProfile
IndustryData
CorporateData
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
WBSEstimating
Model
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Incorporate into OrganizationOur Process:
Establish ScheduleBased on duration calculations as well as forward and backward paths, critical paths, and dependences, etc.
Establish CostBased on effort estimates (hours only) by generalize resource listing and the percentage of work they will be expected to performInclude blended rates (or specific rates if necessary) based on groupings of expertise/dollars
Establish Staffing ModelsBased on duration and loading model calculationsMake it real by looking at skill sets, dependencies, and availability
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Incorporate Into Organization
Our Process:Create instructional documentation that directs repeatable and reliable use when:
Completing the Project ProfileAdjusting theEstimating Model componentsTailoring the WBS
Roll-out and train when and where necessary
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
MaintainOur Process:
Add risk weighting factors in the future to account for this element within estimating modelContinue to test and revise as new projects are conducted and data is gatheredReport variance (estimates-to-actuals) on:
DurationEffortCostSizeStaffing
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
04/19/23 Copyright 2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
PRO ECT CONSULTING GROUP_ _ _J
Many Questions / Few Answers