Third Quarter Earnings Release · Q1-2006 Q3-2006 187 194 21.3 AAR Terminal Dwell Hours Good 27.6...
Transcript of Third Quarter Earnings Release · Q1-2006 Q3-2006 187 194 21.3 AAR Terminal Dwell Hours Good 27.6...
Third Quarter Earnings ReleaseThird Quarter Earnings Release
Jim Young, President & CEO
October 19, 2006
2
Third Quarter Results
2005Reported
$0.94
Diluted Earnings per Share Operating IncomeIn Millions
2006
$1.54
$481
$752
2005Adjusted*
$1.38
2005 2006
+ 64%
Income tax expense reduction
+ 56%
* See Union Pacific web site under Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP.
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Third Quarter Highlights
• Record Volume Growth
• Record All-Time Operating Revenue
• Operations Improving
• Operating Ratio Gains
Third Quarter Earnings ReleaseThird Quarter Earnings Release
Jim Young, President & CEO
October 19, 2006
Third Quarter Marketing & Sales ReviewThird Quarter Marketing & Sales Review
October 19, 2006
Jack Koraleski, Executive VP – Marketing & Sales
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Third Quarter Overview
• Revenue
– Record Quarter In All BusinessGroups Except Automotive
– Record Third Quarter inAutomotive
• Average Revenue Per Car
– Record Quarter In All BusinessGroups Except Automotive
• Year-over-Year Improvement InCustomer Satisfaction
3%
12%
15%
3Q-2005 3Q-2006
Commodity RevenueIn Millions $3,802
$3,302
3Q-2005 3Q-2006
Average Revenue Per Car$1,515
$1,357
3Q-2005 3Q-2006
Volume (000)2,5092,433
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Energy
Third Quarter
• $764 MM Revenue: +17%
• Volume: +7%
• Average Revenue Per Car: +10%
Quarterly Highlights
• All-Time Record SPRB Tonnage
• CO/UT Volumes Declined 1%
Other8%
CO/UT24%
SPRB68%
Revenue Mix
8
Intermodal
Third Quarter
• $743 MM Revenue: +14%
• Volume: +5%
• Average Revenue Per Unit: +8%
Quarterly Highlights
• Strength in Imports Continues
• Softer Domestic Demand
International58%
Domestic35%
Premium7%
Revenue Mix
9
Industrial Products
Third Quarter
• $830 MM Revenue: +15%
• Volume: -4%
• Average Revenue Per Car: +19%
Quarterly Highlights
• Slowdown in Lumber & PanelProducts
• Shedding Low Margin Paper &Newsprint Business
• Strong Steel Demand
Paper14%
Lumber24%
Steel18%
ConstructionProducts
19%
Consumer/Gov’t/
Waste 11%
Non-Ferrous
14%
Revenue Mix
10
Other Commodity Highlights
• Agricultural Products GrowthDriven by Ethanol, DDGS,Cottonseed and Meal Exports
• Automotive Parts Growth
• Weak Fall Fertilizer Season
Ag Prod
Commodity Revenue
Autos Chemicals
+19%
+10%
+14%
Ag Prod
Average Revenue Per Car
Autos Chemicals
+18%
+6%
+15%
Ag Prod
Volume Growth
Autos Chemicals
+1%
+3%
-1%
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Commodity Outlook
Fourth Quarter Outlook
• Volume Up 3% to 4%
• Revenue Up 10%+/-
Full-Year Outlook
• Volume Up 4%
• Revenue Up 15%
Third Quarter Commodity Revenue($ Millions)
2003 2004 2005 2006
$2,827$2,944
$3,302
$3,802
+4%
+12%
+15%
Third Quarter Operating ReviewThird Quarter Operating Review
Dennis Duffy, Executive VP - Operations
October 19, 2006
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Safety - Incidents & ReportablesNine Months Ended September 30
2.80
4.54
2005 2006
4.32
Employee Rail EquipmentPer Million Train Miles
2004
4.75
2005 20062004
3.40
Per 200,000 Work Hours
3.07
1.77 1.771.85
14.30
19.2617.44
Incidents Reportables
Good Good
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Network Performance Update
AAR VelocityMPH
GoodAvg. 7-Day Carloadings(000)
Q1-2006 Q3-2006
187
194 21.3
AAR Terminal DwellHours
Good
27.6
26.2
InventoryUP Measurement (000)
329
321
Good
Q2-2006
194 21.2
Good
Q1-2006 Q3-2006Q2-2006
29.0
Q1-2006 Q3-2006Q2-2006 Q1-2006 Q3-2006Q2-2006
324
21.3
188
Q3-2005
28.1
319
21.6
15
Productivity Update
Train Plan CompliancePercentage
Good
Freight Car UtilizationDays
11.0
9293
Fuel Consumption RateGallons per Thousand GTMs
Good1.31
1.27
Industry Spot/PullPercentage
8788
Good
Good
10.5
Q1-2006 Q3-2006Q2-2006 Q1-2006 Q3-2006Q2-2006
Q1-2006 Q3-2006Q2-2006 Q1-2006 Q3-2006Q2-2006
95
89
10.7
10.4
1.27
1.26
Q3-2005
93
83
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Third Quarter Review
• Scheduled Maintenance
– Iowa
– St. Louis
– Coal Lines
• Slow Order Removal /Winterization
• Sunset Interruptions
• Capacity Enhancements
– Sunset
– San Antonio
– Iowa CTC
– Ethanol
• Terminal Performance
• Peak Season Launch
Challenges Progress
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Fourth Quarter Outlook
• Peak Season
– Grain
– Coal
– Intermodal
• Productivity
– Slow order removal
– Lean initiatives
– Failure cost reduction
• Service Improvement
• Safety!!!
Third Quarter Financial ReviewThird Quarter Financial Review
Rob Knight, CFO
October 19, 2006
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Income Statement SummaryThird Quarter – In Millions
Operating Revenues $3,983 $3,461 +15%
Operating ExpensesSalaries and Benefits 1,161 1,093 + 6Fuel and Utilities 821 673 +22Equipment and Other Rents 371 356 + 4Depreciation 311 294 + 6Materials and Supplies 178 140 +27Purchased Services and Other 389 424 - 8
Total Operating Expenses 3,231 2,980 + 8
Operating Income $ 752 $ 481 +56
2006 2005 Pct Chg
20
Commodity Revenue GrowthThird Quarter - In Millions
2005 2006
$3,302
+3%
$3,802
+6%
Volume Price FuelRecovery
+7%
+15%
Mix
-1%
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Salaries & BenefitsThird Quarter – In Millions
$1,093
2005 2006
$1,161+ $68
Change
• Wage Inflation
• Larger Workforce
• Volume Costs
Full Year Outlook
• 2% Workforce Increase~~
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Fuel & UtilitiesThird Quarter
Third Quarter Fuel PriceDollars Per Gallon
20062005
Fourth Quarter Fuel PriceDollars per Gallon
$2.27
$1.88
2006 Est.2005
$2.08
• Record High Fuel Prices
– Current prices moderating
• 3rd Quarter Recovery = 89%
• 4th Quarter Lag Impact
$1.95 - $2.10
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Equipment & Other RentsThird Quarter – In Millions
$356
2005 2006
$371+ $15
Change
• Locomotive and EquipmentLease Expenses
• Volume Related Costs
• Improved Cycle Times
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Materials & SuppliesThird Quarter – In Millions
$140
2005 2006
$178+ $38
Change
• Inflation
• Increased ProgramMaintenance
• Category Shift fromPurchased Services & Other
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Purchased Services & OtherThird Quarter – In Millions
$424
2005 2006
$389
- $35
Change
• West Coast StormReimbursement
• Lower Casualty Expense
• Volume Related Costs
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Operating Ratio Improvement
90.1%
Q1 Q2
86.0% 86.1%
81.7%
83.7%
Q3
81.1%
2005
2006
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Full Income StatementThird Quarter – In Millions
($ Millions Except EPS)
Operating Revenues $ 3,983 $ 3,461 +15%
Operating Expenses 3,231 2,980 + 8
Operating Income 752 481 +56
Other Income – Net 22 42 - 48
Interest Expense (119 ) (124) - 4
Income Before Income Taxes 655 399 +64
Income Tax Expense (235 ) (30) U
Net Income $ 420 $ 369 +14
Diluted EPS $ 1.54 $ 1.38 +12
2006 2005 Pct Chg
U = Unfavorable
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Balance Sheet StrengthLeased Adjusted Debt to Capital
2002 2003 2004
45.1%43.6%
51.7%
44.8%
2005
41.7%
Sept2006
* See Union Pacific web site under Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP.
Prior year percentages are shown as of December 31.
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2006 Outlook
$450+Free Cash Flow* (after Dividends, in Millions)
$2,800Total Capital (in Millions)
$5.63 to $5.73$1.50 to $1.60Diluted Earnings Per Share
5 pts4 to 5 ptsOperating Ratio Improvement
15%10%+/-Commodity Revenue Growth
Full YearFourth Quarter
* See Union Pacific web site under Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP.
Third Quarter Financial ReviewThird Quarter Financial Review
Rob Knight, CFO
October 19, 2006
Third Quarter Earnings ReleaseThird Quarter Earnings Release
Jim Young, President & CEO
October 19, 2006
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