THIRD QUARTER 2020 INVESTOR CONFERENCE CALL · 2020. 10. 23. · INVESTOR CONFERENCE CALL October...
Transcript of THIRD QUARTER 2020 INVESTOR CONFERENCE CALL · 2020. 10. 23. · INVESTOR CONFERENCE CALL October...
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THIRD QUARTER 2020INVESTOR CONFERENCE CALL
October 23, 2020
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DISCLAIMER
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this presentation, other than statements of historical facts, including statements regarding our strategy, future operations, future financial position, future revenues, future costs, prospects, plans and objectives of management are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Statements that include the words ”expect,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “predict,” "believe," “think,” “plan,” “will,” “should,” “intend,” “seek,” “potential” and similar expressions and variations are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words. All forward-looking statements address matters that involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements and, therefore, you should not place undue reliance on any such statements. These factors include, without limitation, economic, business, competitive, market and regulatory conditions and the following: the impact of COVID-19 on our business; decreases in the demand for leased containers; decreases in market leasing rates for containers; difficulties in re-leasing containers after their initial fixed-term leases; customers' decisions to buy rather than lease containers; dependence on a limited number of customers for a substantial portion of our revenues; customer defaults; decreases in the selling prices of used containers; extensive competition in the container leasing industry; difficulties stemming from the international nature of Triton’s businesses; decreases in the demand for international trade; disruption to our operations resulting from political and economic policies of the United States and other countries, particularly China, including but not limited to the impact of trade wars and tariffs; disruption to our operations from failure of or attacks on our information technology systems; disruption to our operations as a result of natural disasters, compliance with laws and regulations related to economic and trade sanctions, security, anti-terrorism, environmental protection and corruption; ability to obtain sufficient capital to support growth; restrictions imposed by the terms of our debt agreements; changes in the tax laws in Bermuda, the United States and other countries; and other risks and uncertainties, including those listed under the caption “Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019 (the “Form 10-K”) or other reports we file with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
The foregoing list of important factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with the other cautionary statements that are included herein and elsewhere, including the risk factors in our Form 10-K. Any forward-looking statements made herein are qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements, and there can be no assurance that the actual results or developments anticipated by us will be realized or, even if substantially realized, that they will have the expected consequences to, or effects on, us or our businesses or operations. Except to the extent required by applicable law, we undertake no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise. Certain financial measures presented in this presentation are identified as not being prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). Please refer to the Appendix hereto for a reconciliation of such non-GAAP measures to their most comparable GAAP measures.
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HIGHLIGHTS
Triton’s performance inflected upwards in the third quarter
» Adjusted EPS $1.14, an increase of 32.6% from the second quarter
» Annualized return on equity of 15.8%
Trade volumes have rebounded sharply, creating a shortage of containers
Q3 ABS issuance has further strengthened our balance sheet and profitability
» Issued $2.3 billion of ABS at a weighted average rate of 2.2%
» Most of proceeds used to refinance higher cost debt; expect $25 million of savings over the next year
We are carrying strong momentum into the end of the year
» Customers expect container shortages to last at least into early 2021
» Expect Adjusted EPS to increase in the range of 25% from the third to the fourth quarter
Raised quarterly dividend from $0.52 to $0.57 per common share, an increase of nearly 10%
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CURRENT MARKET OVERVIEW
The market and our performance inflected upwards in the third quarter
» Trade volumes rebounded strongly as lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe eased
» Most shipping lines facing significant container shortages
» We have used our extensive supply capability to secure sizable bookings for new and used containers
– Utilization has rebounded quickly to 97.6% as of October 16
– We have booked over 500,000 TEU of new containers onto attractive long-term leases
» Container manufacturers now quoting roughly $2,500 for new 20’ dry containers
» Used container sales volumes increased to a record level in Q3; prices are starting to increase quickly
Customer financial performance better than expected and payment performance strong
» Shipping lines reduced vessel capacity in first half of 2020 in response to decreased trade volumes, and major shipping lines boosted profitability from first half of last year
» Shipping line performance expected to be very strong in second half of 2020 due to rebound in trade volumes, high freight rates and low fuel costs
» Shipping industry managing COVID-19 pandemic much better than previous down-cycles
Our solid performance through the trade wars and COVID-19 lockdowns and rapid upward inflection in Q3 highlight the resilience of our business model
» High quality long-term lease portfolio limits off-hires and exposure to weak markets
» Cost and capability advantages drive outperformance vs. peers, protecting ROE through down cycle
» Short order cycle for containers allows global fleet to rebalance quickly
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CONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUT REBOUNDED TOPRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS
Top 10 Global Ports
Source: Alphaliner Monthly Monitor.
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Pick-Ups Drop-Offs Net
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Ending Quarterly Utilization (CEU)
TRITON’S KEY OPERATING METRICS INFLECTED IN Q3
Ending Quarterly Utilization (CEU) Dry Container Pick-up / Drop-off Activity (Units) (1)
Trend of Leasing Transactions – New Dry Containers Dry Depot Lease Inventory in Asia(1) Excludes Sale-leaseback units.
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CONTAINER SUPPLY CONSTRAINED AND BOX PRICES HIGHER
New Dry Factory Inventory Container Price Minus Steel Input Cost
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Sep. 30th Inventory:Lessors 196kLines 94kTotal 290k
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20DC Price Margin
Current Box Price: $2,500Current Steel Price $588/Ton
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CUSTOMER FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE STRONG DUE TOHIGH FREIGHT RATES AND LOW FUEL PRICES
Container Spot Shipping Freight Rates and Fuel Cost
Source: Bloomberg. Freight rates are for a 40’ dry container. Bunker fuel is 380 cst prior to Jan. 1, 2020 and VLSFO thereafter. VLSFO is very-low sulfur fuel oil that complies with the new IMO 2020 regulations and trades at a premium to regular 380 cst bunker fuel.
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Bunker Fuel ($/mt) China - US West Coast China - Northern Europe
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CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF ADJUSTED NET INCOME (*)
(*) Adjusted net income is a non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix.(1) Excludes debt termination expense, and net unrealized loss or gains on derivative instruments.(2) Excludes foreign income tax adjustment, tax related to intra-entity asset transfer and tax benefit from vesting of restricted shares.
(In thousands, except earnings per share) Q3 '20 Q2 '20 % Change Q3 '19 % Change
Total leasing revenues 327,757$ 321,397$ 2.0% 336,668$ (2.6%)
Trading margin 3,869 2,020 91.5% 4,150 (6.8%)
Net gain on sale of leasing equipment 10,737 4,537 136.7% 6,196 73.3%
Depreciation and amortization 136,248 133,292 2.2% 133,367 2.2%
Interest and debt expense 62,776 66,885 (6.1%) 76,862 (18.3%)
Total ownership costs 199,024 200,177 (0.6%) 210,229 (5.3%)
Direct operating expenses 25,992 29,619 (12.2%) 20,457 27.1%
Administrative expenses 21,395 20,472 4.5% 18,496 15.7%
Provision (reversal) for doubtful accounts (45) 374 (112.0%) 126 (135.7%)
Other (income) expense, net (631) 36 (1852.8%) (116) 444.0%
Adjusted pretax income (1)
96,628 77,276 25.0% 97,822 (1.2%)
Income tax expense 8,060 6,761 19.2% 8,165 (1.3%)
Adjusted net income before preferred dividends (1)(2)
88,568$ 70,515$ 25.6% 89,657$ (1.2%)
Less: dividend on preferred shares 10,512 10,513 (0.0%) 4,708 123.3%
Adjusted net income (1)(2)
78,056$ 60,002$ 30.1% 84,950$ (8.1%)
Adjusted net income per common share 1.14$ 0.86$ 32.6% 1.16$ (1.7%)
Weighted average number of common shares outstanding - diluted 68,582 69,536 (1.4%) 73,249 (6.4%)
Return on equity 15.8% 12.2% 16.1%
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PROFITABILITY DRIVERS
Revenue earning assets down 3.6%
Leasing revenue down 2.6%
UTE averaged 96.1%, down 0.6%
Direct opex increased $5.5 million, primarily due to higher storage costs and redeliveries
Gain on sale and trading margin up by $4.3 million due to increases in dry container prices and disposal volumes
Fleet Size
Utilization
Disposal Activity
Credit
Sequential ChangeQ3 2020 vs Q2 2020
Change from Prior Year Quarter Q3 2020 vs Q3 2019
Revenue earning assets down 0.5%
Leasing revenue up 2.0%
UTE averaged 96.1%, up 1.1%. UTE 97.4% as of 9/30/2020
Direct opex decreased $3.6 million, primarily due to lower storage costs and redeliveries
Gain on sale and trading margin up by $8.0 million due to increases in dry container prices and disposal volumes
Customer payment performance strong
No material credit charges
Customer payment performance strong
No material credit charges
Share Count
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding down 6.4% due to share repurchases
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding down 1.4% due to share repurchases
68.6 million diluted shares outstanding as of 9/30/2020
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FINANCIAL POSITION HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
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Principal Debt Obligations CF before Capex LTM 9/30/20
Liquidity as of 9/30/20
Cash Flow Coverage
Leverage at an all-time low
Exceptionally strong liquidity
Well structured debt profile with no significant maturity cliffs
Cash flows in excess of principal payments through 2022
Recent ABS issuances expected to produce over $25 million of annualized interest expense savings
Recent ABS Financings
Closing Date Amount ($MM) All-in Yield
August 26, 2020 313 2.17%
September 21, 2020 1,366 2.19%
September 21, 2020 634 2.13%
2,313 2.17%
ABS Refinanced Amount ($MM) Wt Avg Coupon
Triton Container Finance VI 1,159 3.88%
TAL Advantage V /VI 611 3.73%
1,770 3.83%
New Offerings
ABS Called in September
($ in mm)
LTM operating cash flow plus proceeds from the sale of leasing equipment 1,202$
Cash on hand 173$
Maximum remaining borrowing capacity under revolvers 1,449$
Sources of liquidity 2,824$
Next twelve months:
Principal repayment obligations (652)$
Equipment purchase payable and commitments (650)$
Major cash obligations (1,302)$
Excess sources 1,523$
Coverage of major cash obligations 217%
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STABLE CASH FLOWS AND STEADY SHAREHOLDER VALUE CREATION
Steady Value Creation (5)
(4) All periods exclude purchase accounting adjustments. Net Debt defined as Total Debt plus Equipment Purchases Payable less Cash and Restricted Cash.
Cash Flow Before Capex (1)(2)(3)
(1) See Footnote 1 in the Appendix. (2) See Footnote 2 in the Appendix(3) Reflects purchase accounting adjustments for 2017 – YTD 2020
Net Debt as % of REA (4)
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(5) Adjusted tangible book value defined as Shareholders Equity, less Goodwill plus Net Deferred Tax Liability plus Net Swap Liability, before purchase accounting adjustments. Reflects TAL standalone for Q2 2016 and prior periods.
GAAPBVPS:$28.63
Adj.TBV:
$37.41
Cumulative Dividends Per Share
Adjusted Tangible Book Value Per Share
Book Value Per Share
Industrial & Commodity Recession
Trade War / COVID-19 /
Pref. Issuance
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Q4 FINANCIAL EXPECTATIONS
Q4 Adjusted EPS Expected to Exceed 2018 Peak
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Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4LowerCase
Q4UpperCaseAdj EPS Adj ROE
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OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSIONS
Triton used strong market conditions to drive a significant increase in Q3 performance
» Utilization up sharply, reached 97.6% as of October 16
» Booked more than 500,000 TEU of new containers onto attractive long-term leases
» Q3 EPS $1.14, an increase of 32.6% from Q2; annualized return on equity of 15.8%
Market conditions expected to remain strong into at least early next year, and we expect our operating and financial performance to improve further
» Key operating metrics still increasing
» We continue to win a large share of new leasing transactions
» Expect EPS to increase in the range of 25% from Q3 to Q4
We expect our profitability will remain at a high level in 2021, and we have increased our dividend nearly 10% to $0.57 per share
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Appendix
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CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME
(In thousands, except earnings per share) Q3 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '19
Total leasing revenues 327,757$ 321,397$ 336,668$
Trading margin 3,869 2,020 4,150
Net gain on sale of leasing equipment 10,737 4,537 6,196
Depreciation and amortization 136,248 133,292 133,367
Interest and debt expenses 62,776 66,885 76,862
Total ownership costs 199,024 200,177 210,229
Direct operating expenses 25,992 29,619 20,457
Administrative expenses 21,395 20,472 18,496
Provision for doubtful accounts (45) 374 126
Other (income) expense, net (631) 36 (116)
Unrealized loss (gain) on swaps and debt termination expense 24,345 (11) 2,374
Total operating and other costs 71,056 50,490 41,337
Income before income taxes 72,283 77,287 95,448
Income tax expense 15,825 6,699 4,845
Net income 56,458$ 70,588$ 90,603$
Less: dividend on preferred shares 10,512 10,513 4,708
Net Income attributable to common shareholders 45,946$ 60,075$ 85,895$
Net income per common share - Diluted 0.67$ 0.86$ 1.17$
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RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL INFORMATION
(1) Annualized Adjusted net income was calculated based on calendar days per quarter.(2) Average Shareholders' equity was calculated using the quarter’s beginning and ending Shareholder’s equity for the three-month ended periods. Average
Shareholders’ equity for the full year was calculated using the ending Shareholder’s equity for each quarter and the previous year-end. Average shareholders’ equity excludes preferred shares.
(In thousands, except earnings per share)
Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 2019 Total Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20
Net income attributable to common shareholders 91,914$ 84,071$ 85,895$ 77,161$ 339,041$ 67,211$ 60,075$ 45,946$
Add (subtract):
Debt termination expense & unrealized (gain) loss on derivative
instruments, net903 1,872 1,958 435 5,168 294 12 21,140
State and other income tax adjustments - 414 (931) - (517) - (85) 2,341
Tax adjustments related to intra-entity asset transfer - - - - - - - 8,629
Tax benefit from vesting of restricted shares - - (1,972) (65) (2,037) (390) - -
Adjusted net income attributable to common shareholders 92,817$ 86,357$ 84,950$ 77,531$ 341,655$ 67,115$ 60,002$ 78,056$
Adjusted net income per common share - Diluted 1.19$ 1.15$ 1.16$ 1.07$ 4.57$ 0.93$ 0.86$ 1.14$
Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 2019 Total Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20
Adjusted net income 92,817$ 86,357$ 84,950$ 77,531$ 341,655$ 67,115$ 60,002$ 78,056$
Annualized adjusted net income (1)
376,425 346,377 337,030 307,596 341,655 269,198 240,667 309,679
Average common shareholders' equity (2)
2,184,361$ 2,135,817$ 2,092,294$ 2,102,608$ 2,136,109$ 2,061,244$ 1,974,600$ 1,958,920$
Return on equity 17.2% 16.2% 16.1% 14.6% 16.0% 13.1% 12.2% 15.8%
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ADJUSTED TANGIBLE BOOK VALUE PER SHARE AS OF 9/30/20
(In thousands, except per share amounts)Combined
Purchase
Accounting Consolidated
Total assets 9,775,603$ (150,928)$ 9,624,675$
Total liabilities 7,164,915 (59,129) 7,105,786
Preferred shareholders' equity 555,000 - 555,000
Common shareholders' equity 2,055,688 (91,799) 1,963,889
Total equity 2,610,688 (91,799) 2,518,889
Total liabilities and equity 9,775,603$ (150,928)$ 9,624,675$
Common shares outstanding 68,607
Book value per share $28.63
Reconciliation to adjusted tangible book value
Common shareholders' equity 2,055,688$
Less: Goodwill (23,953)
Plus: Net deferred tax liability 380,527
Plus: Net swap liability 154,603
Adjusted tangible book value 2,566,864$
Adjusted tangible book value per share $37.41
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LONG TERM LEASE EXPIRATIONS (*)
Dry
Percent of Fleet 5.6% 1.3% 2.2% 5.2% 6.4% 2.8%
Refrigerated
Percent of Fleet 2.4% 0.4% 2.3% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9%
(*) Excludes sale-age equipment
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EQUITY CASH FLOW AFTER MAINTAINING FLEET SIZE (*)
(*) Assumes constant leverage
(In thousands, except per share amounts) LTM Sep 30, 2020
Adjusted EBITDA $1,153,996
Principal payments on finance leases 80,636
NBV of container disposals 212,874
Major cash in flows 1,447,506
Interest and debt expense 271,092
Annual preferred stock dividends 42,052
Cash flow before capex 1,134,362
Replacement capex (1) 828,552
Steady-state cash flow $305,810
Per share $4.46
Yield (2) 12.2%
Common dividends $156,424
Per share (3) $2.28
Yield (2) 6.2%
Cash flow available as return of capital or for equity component of growth capex $149,386
(1) Represents depreciation, NBV of disposals and principal payments on finance leases
(2) Based on closing stock price of $36.57 on 10/21/2020
(3) Annualized fourth quarter dividend
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RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL INFORMATION
(In thousands) LTM
September 30,
2020
Income before income taxes 322,735
Add:
Unrealized loss on derivative instruments 636
Debt termination expense 24,491
Adjusted pre-tax income 347,862
Interest and debt expense 271,092
Depreciation and amortization 535,042
Adjusted EBITDA 1,153,996
Principal payments on finance leases 80,636
NBV of container disposals 212,874
Major cash in flows 1,447,506
Interest and debt expense 271,092
Preferred stock dividends (*) 42,052
Cash flow before capex 1,134,362$
(*) Annual dividend payment on preferred equity Series A of $86.25M @ 8.5%,
Series B of $143.75M @ 8.0%, Series C of $175M @ 7.375% and Series D of
$150M @ 6.875%
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FOOTNOTES
1. The combined financial information from 2016 and prior periods does not reflect results on a GAAP basis. GAAP financial statements reflect only the TCIL operations prior to the merger on July 12, 2016, and can be found in the Company’s 10-Q and 10-K filings.
2. Cash Flow Before CapEx is defined as Adjusted EBITDA plus principal payments on finance leases and NBV of container disposals less interest and debt expense, realized (gain) loss on derivative instruments, and annualized preferred stock dividends. Adjusted EBITDA is defined as net income before income taxes, gain on sale of building, insurance proceeds, transaction costs, income attributable to noncontrolling interest, net (gain)/loss on derivative instruments, debt termination expense, interest and debt expense, and depreciation and amortization.