THIRD QUARTER 2017 OUTLOOK From the CIO Office · Third Quarter 2017 Outlook ... Head of Asset...

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Emirates NBD | +971 4 609 3564 | PO Box 777, Baniyas Road, Dubai, UAE

THIRD QUARTER 2017 OUTLOOK

From the CIO Office

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Emirates NBD | +971 4 609 3564 PO Box 777, Baniyas Road, Dubai, UAE

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OPPO RTUNIT IE S TO I NS PI RE Emira tes NBD CIO Of f ice – Q3 2017

Third Quarter 2017 Outlook Giorgio Borelli 2

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Global Technology Sector Update Anita Gupta 7

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UK Real Estate Nigel Burton 14

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Reinforcing the View on India’s Domestic Debt Yahya Sultan 16

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Market Performance Review 21

Contents


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˃ Rally of risk assets sustainable amidst higher potential for pullbacks

˃ Global GDP growth records longest streak of above-trend quarters since 2010

˃ Monetary policy normalization a concern for investors

˃ Global government bond yields are too low

˃ Backdrop favourable for carry strategies

˃ Gold a good hedge against equity volatility

Most asset classes closed out the previous quarter in

the green, with improving growth carrying over from the

first quarter and inflationary pressures peaking early in

the year. The currently benign environment marked by

low macroeconomic volatility, tame inflation and easy

policy conditions may pose the question of investor

complacency and of whether risk assets will continue to

rally for the remainder of 2017.

The Emirates NBD CIO Office holds the view that

there are still enough tailwinds behind global

growth, currently modestly above trend levels, to

justify a continuation of the current rally, although

most likely at a slower pace and not without

momentary setbacks. Global equities, though not

inexpensive in absolute terms, remain cheap as

compared to risk-free assets, and credit can still benefit

from relatively accommodative monetary conditions and

a firm economy. Government bonds come across as

expensive, having amplified concerns related to

underwhelming inflation measures, while crude oil is

expected to remain range-bound in a tug of war between

rising supply and OPEC production curbs.

Global equities outperformed all other major asset

classes in the second quarter, recording mid-single

digit gains in dollar terms, led higher by emerging

market and European stocks. Earnings surprised to

the upside in the first quarter and have so far grown in

the low double digits globally. The next reporting season

should be expected to be strong as well, as above-trend

world growth should translate into a healthy earnings

growth rate. Returns of global government bonds were

in the low single digits, in spite of the pick-up in the

business cycle, as investors cheered at the peaking of

inflation early this year in the major developed countries.

According to consensus, global real GDP at the end of

June recorded the longest streak of above-trend

quarters since 2010. Although growth momentum may

have peaked, with global economic surprises no longer

rising and in negative territory in the US, relatively high

expansion rates should bode well for the economy in the

next few quarters. The current positive phase has

broadened to include a larger number of major countries

outside of the US, like Europe and Japan, also

witnessing the participation of the emerging economies.

Inflation remains subdued after flaring up shortly at the

beginning of this year, and all market-implied inflationary

measures are currently pulling back following weaker

crude prices and in spite of falling unemployment levels

in the major countries. If anything, the lack of inflationary

threats should keep temptations of accelerated

tightening by central banks at bay, with the effect of

prolonging the longevity of this expansion phase.

Chart 1: Global manufacturing confidence index

Source: Markit and Bloomberg, 2017

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Third Quarter 2017 Outlook From the CIO Office


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The depicted backdrop does not come exempt of

risks for financial assets. The removal of stimulus by

central banks, however gradual, represents a potential

setback to which equity markets with above-average

valuations may well be vulnerable, though only

temporarily in our view. Fed chair Janet Yellen

confirmed in the June meeting the Fed's tightening path

to policy normalisation is intact, with one more rate hike

in 2017 and three planned in the subsequent year.

Currently markets are pricing less than two hikes by

end-2018. Also, the ECB President Mario Draghi is

expected to communicate later this year the tapering of

asset purchases, which should be started in 2018,

representing the gradual removal of unconventional

easing measures. Central banks in the UK and Canada

seem to be leaning towards the hawkish side as well.

We would be drawing two conclusions from this: that

bond yields are too depressed and should rise from

current levels; and that pullbacks in risk assets should

represent buying opportunities, given there is room for

more rate hikes before tighter liquidity conditions are

eventually able to tip equities over into a bear market.

Chart 2: US 10-year Treasury yield headed towards

the upper-end of its 2017 range

Source: Bloomberg, 2017

Soon after the French presidential election we sold out

of our overweight position in euro area equities, bringing

our allocation back to benchmark. Most of the positives,

from receding political risks to the improving economy,

seemed to be baked in market prices. In case of

pullbacks we would consider adding back to equities

across the most appealing geographies.

We have kept our overweight position in emerging

market equities, which continues to be supported by a

weakening dollar, a mild tightening cycle in the

developed countries and an improving growth outlook,

as per consensus forecasts. Our main overweight in the

area remains India, where the economy continues to

benefit from increased banking liquidity post

demonetisation, higher spending in infrastructure

segments by central and state governments and

improved sentiment as reform momentum is

maintained.

Chart 3: EM equities +5.5% in the second quarter


Within the GCC equity markets Saudi Arabia (+6.06%

price return) stood out for the quarter, as investors

celebrated that the previously deputy crown prince

Mohammed bin Salman was named crown prince. This

represents a sign of continuity in the direction taken by

the country towards structural reforms aimed at weaning

it off oil dependency. The UAE markets lagged behind,

mildly in the red in Q2 2017, with room for them to catch

up as Brent crude seems to be stabilising above $45

from its recent drop. Qatar was heavily affected by rising

tensions with other neighbouring countries (-13.09%

price return).

Chart 4: Saudi equities +6% in the second quarter


Our bond exposure saw a minor adjustment, as an

underweight position in inflation-linked bonds was

closed and the allocation was brought back to

neutral. Global inflation is eventually expected to rise,

hence at least a benchmark level of inflation protection

for portfolios seems appropriate. We maintain an

overweight exposure to credit, in particular in emerging

markets where spreads are not as tight. The current

steady-state environment of moderate growth and tame

inflation is still very favourable for both corporate and

EM credit and in general for carry strategies. We see

risk-off episodes marked by the widening of spreads as

buying opportunities, with credit also supported by still

accommodative monetary conditions.

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Third Quarter 2017 Outlook


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Chart 5: Global IG corporate spreads


We think gold offers a good equity hedge in the

second part of this year, considering that economic

momentum may have peaked and equity valuations are

no longer inexpensive. Technically gold should be

locked in the broad $1,200-$1,300 range, in a tug of war

between moderate Fed tightening for 2017 - which

should limit downside - and 'growth scares' triggered as

growth momentum subsides.

Chart 6: Gold headed towards the bottom-end of its

2017 range


Giorgio Borelli

Head of Asset Allocation

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Third Quarter 2017 Outlook


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EQUITIES Index 1 day Q2 1mth 12mths YTD PE Yield

Global 1925 0.0% 3.8% 0.7% 16.4% 9.9% 21.6 2.4% Emerging Markets 1012 0.0% 5.6% 0.6% 21.3% 17.3% 15.4 2.4% GCC 486 0.0% 3.1% 4.7% 12.1% 2.1% 13.8 3.6%

BONDS Index 1 day Q2 1mth 12mths YTD Yield Spread

Global Sovereign 114 0.0% 2.9% 0.1% -4.7% 4.8% 0.9% -

Emerging Markets USD 788 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 6.0% 6.6% 5.3% 3.33%

GCC 274 0.0% 0.9% -0.5% 3.5% 3.3% 4.3% 2.24%

Source: Bloomberg, 30 June 2017

˃ In the second quarter of 2017 global equities (+4.5%) outperformed global government bonds (+2.7%), in dollar terms. Investors took in their stride lower than expected inflationary pressures, assuming that a very

gradual rise in US policy rates would prolong the current steady-state scenario of moderate growth and tame inflation.

˃ EM equities (5.7%) continued to outperform DM (4.5%), with investors doubtful of the Fed’s ability to raise

rates as per official forecasts and economic growth in China settling. Chinese shares (+7.2%) in Hong Kong outperformed, given their undervaluation versus their mainland peers and firm growth in the Chinese economy.

˃ Global investment-grade bonds (+3.4%) delivered the largest returns within fixed income. The combined

effect of slightly tightening credit spreads and dropping yields in developed markets, caused by steady economic growth and falling inflation expectations, boosted the asset class.

˃ The US dollar (-1.82%) weakened for a second quarter, with markets shrugging off news of the Fed’s plan to

downsize its balance sheet by year-end and investors taking a more hawkish view of the ECB monetary policy. The euro (+4.68%) recorded the largest gains against the US currency.

˃ Crude oil (-14.3%) continued to weaken and entered a bear market in spite of OPEC production curbs.

Although US stockpiles started to drop towards quarter end, investors focused on the increasing shale rig count, with crude production rising back towards all-time highs.

The Quarter that Was - At a Glance


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˃ The second quarter of 2017 saw risk assets outperform government bonds. Investors found comfort in the

global economy being in a steady state with positive growth and little inflation, as well as in the receding of political risks post the French presidential elections. Global equities recorded new all-time highs for the fifth consecutive month, led higher by EM and with US large-cap stocks staging a strong comeback. Government bond yields dropped to their lows for the year in most major developed countries on a subdued inflation outlook driven by falling crude prices and limited wage gains. US dollar weakness carried over from the first quarter to the second, as economic surprises in negative territory compounded the effects of a peaking yield differential of the US dollar against the other major currencies.

˃ Reflation expectations went disappointed in Q2 in spite of an improving trend in global growth. Inflation

rolled over in the US and remained subdued in other countries, casting doubts on the credibility of central banks in the achievement of their inflation targets. Also, the possibility of Trump pushing through Congress his pro-growth agenda before the US mid-term elections in late 2018 became more remote amidst growing noise about the ties of the new US administration with Russia and the interference of the latter in the US presidential campaign. The so-called reflation trade initiated post Mr Trump’s election, which saw the outperformance of cyclical stocks and a sell-off in government bonds, started to unwind in early 2017 and the last quarter saw growth stocks and government bonds coming again to the fore.

˃ Political events dominated the quarter, with investors relieved after the French presidential election in early

May, only to be disappointed a month later amidst rising uncertainty after the UK snap election results. The election of Macron as new French President marks a turn towards a pro-European Union agenda and more liberal domestic policies, supported by an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Increased political stability failed to boost European stocks, which had already outperformed significantly before the event. In the UK a hung Parliament, with Theresa May’s majority significantly cut down, heightened concerns about political stability in the UK and saw the British pound weaken by 1.6% the day after the elections.

˃ In the US, Q1 earnings surprised to the upside, increasing more than 15% from Q1 2016, boosted by the

energy sector. Roughly three-fourths of the reporting companies beat estimates, above the two-thirds long-term average. The number of companies beating revenue forecasts was above the historical long-term average as well, a sign of the broadening economic recovery in the US. The sectors with the largest earnings surprise factor were energy and consumer staples, while telecom service companies surprised negatively.

˃ The past quarter saw major central banks minded to remove excessive policy accommodation. At the

ECB early June meeting Mario Draghi upgraded the economic outlook for the euro area to “broadly balanced”

and kept rates unchanged, heightening in a subsequent speech expectations for the start of the tapering of asset

purchases early next year. Janet Yellen showed more confidence in the US economic outlook, raising short term

interest rates by a quarter point and upgrading the forecast for US economic growth and employment in 2017,

although inflation forecasts were cut. The Fed also communicated the intention to start downsizing its balance

sheet by not reinvesting coupon proceeds, with a specific plan to be started late in 2017. Central banks in the

UK and Canada started to lean towards the hawkish side as well.

˃ The roll-over of crude production curbs decided by OPEC members in Vienna failed to boost oil prices.

Although OPEC extended previously agreed production cuts by nine months, crude prices fell by more than 4.5% on the day of the announcement and Brent crude settled slightly above $45 at the end of the quarter losing, 9.3% in three months. Crude rebounded in the last days of the quarter on growing evidence of slower US drilling activity.

The Quarter that Was - Commentary


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Technology has contributed to 43% of the gains of the S&P500 in 1H 2017

Strong and visible earnings growth is supportive of further gains

Companies that can adapt to consumer preferences in the fast growing internet and cloud industries, EV’s, cyber security and digital healthcare sectors will be the winners

If you are not reading this on a mobile device or hearing this as a podcast while driving your Electric Vehicle you almost certainly will be in the next five years. Alexa, Siri or Cortana will be your personal assistants and will be determining what content is relevant to you.

You will be connected to at least 10 other devices and if you like what you are reading you may post it on Facebook, Snapchat or Tweet about it and create more user time, helping the social media giants increase digital advertising revenue.

Artificial Intelligence “AI” is at the centre of what is now deemed as the fourth industrial revolution, a trend based on automation and connectivity. The industrial Internet of Things or “IoT” will change the competitive landscape of automation and its biggest use will be in manufacturing and the digitization of industry.

Predictive maintenance and remote monitoring using algorithms working on mountains of data will improve productivity. Whilst retail, finance and insurance are seen as digitally mature, the capital goods sector is still in the early cycle of its digital journey.

Over 80% of the US population own a smart phone and the average data consumption is 4 gigabytes. The iPhone celebrates its 10th year anniversary, having sold more than 1 billion devices.

A quarter of the world uses Facebook on an almost daily basis. Amazon's plan to buy Whole Foods Market is putting pressure on grocery companies around the world, especially food delivery services. Instacart, Amazon Fresh’s delivery vehicle aims to deliver to 80% of U.S. households next year.

Chart 1: Global Smartphone Connection and Adoption

Source : GSMA Intelligence, The Mobile Economy 2016

Today 7 of the 10 most valuable companies globally are technology companies. Technology has contributed to 43% of the gains of the S&P500 in 1H 2017, most of this generated by just 5 stocks – Apple, Alphabet, Amazon,

Facebook and Microsoft. These five are also the world’s most valuable brands. They have developed fast-growing and very profitable businesses, which justify their mega market capitalisation.

These five stocks were up on average 22% in the first half of 2017, compared to an 8.2% gain for the S&P 500. The recent 5% pullback in the technology sector at the end of June is now raising doubts about the momentum of the tech rally.

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The Technology Sector – Cloudy with a Lithium Lining


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Table 1: Top 10 contributors to the S&P 500 YTD

Source : Bloomberg as on 30th June 2017

The S&P 500 Technology Sector Index has doubled over the past five years and is now close to the peak price of 2000. This brings back memories of the ensuing crash that saw the technology index fall 80%. However the technology companies are now in a different cycle with sustainable business models and strong balance sheets.

The tech sector has strong and visible earnings growth, forecast at 17% for 2017 compared to 10% for the S&P 500. It has the strongest long term growth rate amongst all industries with EPS CAGR at 12%.

Chart 2: Tech sector performance vs the S&P500

Source: Bloomberg data as of June 19th ‘17 rebased to 100

In 2000 much of the future profitability of the tech sector was aspirational rather than reality and the sector’s earnings base was just 25% of where it stands today. For the S&P 500 Info tech Index, EPS was $11.4 in 2000 as against the $40 level of today.

Market cap

(in Bn)

Contribution

to S&P gain Return YTD

APPLE INC 751 8.3% 24.3%

AMAZON.COM INC 463 6.6% 29.1%

FACEBOOK INC-A 438 6.6% 31.2%

ALPHABET INC-CL A 635 6.0% 17.3%

ORACLE CORP 207 3.1% 30.4%

MICROSOFT CORP 532 3.1% 10.9%

JOHNSON & JOHNSON 356 2.7% 14.8%

PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL 182 2.5% 28.4%

VISA INC-CLASS A SHARES 216 2.2% 20.2%

NVIDIA CORP 86 1.8% 35.4%

S&P 500 INDEX 21,628 100.0% 8.2%



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Chart 3: S&P 500 Tech index EPS

Source: Bloomberg 30th June 2017

There are some very significant differences between the tech boom of the late 1990’s and the tech sector performance of today. Looking at it from a pure valuation perspective, today’s P/E multiple for the S&P500 Tech sector at 21.7X is a fraction of the 75X multiple, the sector traded on at its peak in 2000.

Chart 4: S&P InfoTech Index, Price to Earnings– not expensive

Source : Bloomberg 30th June 2017

We look at some of the growing sectors within the technology space, contributing to the estimated 17% earnings growth for the sector in 2017. We have already written about the impact of internet retail and robotics in our Year Ahead outlook.

Semiconductors

What would it take to disrupt a rally in semiconductor stocks? The SOX Semiconductor Index is up 20% in mid-

2017 after gaining more than 40% in 2016. Supporting the rally is the boom in mobile devices, demand for graphics processors in video games, the rise of AI and autonomous driving; all of whose prospects continue to look strong. Nvidia, the best performer in the S&P 500 in 2016 has gained 230% over one year along with +100% increases for Micron, Applied Materials and Skyworks Solutions. Macroeconomic data and demand for semiconductors remain stable. The group seems to be positioned mid-cycle. Valuations remain reasonable. The SOX Index is trading at 16X forward earnings, only c.10% above its five-year average and far below price to earning mutiples for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indices.

Semiconductor stocks overexposed to the Electric Vehicle (EV) theme have outperformed over the last 18 months. With battery/cathode technologies, power chips are important components in an electric car. Silicon Carbide is a game changer for the EV and Hybrid car industry.

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Today, the majority of electric cars use Silicon chips, however transistors constructed on Silicon Carbide (SiC) are likely to take market share in the coming years as car manufacturers exploit the benefit of up to 20% more mileage from the same battery pack and 20% less charging time.

Opportunity: AI is expected to significantly improve productivity, and cut costs in almost all industries. Semiconductor companies will benefit from the expected growth in AI usage and machine learning.

Autonomous and Electric Vehicles (EV’s)

By 2050, the world’s population will have increased by 50% leading to a corresponding growth in car sales to over 130m vehicles annually, and a doubling of the global car fleet to over 2bn vehicles. Electric vehicle penetration is expected at 10% of global sales by 2025, and 70% by 2050. A decline in diesel powertrain demand will expedite

the penetration of EV’s, according to Continental who also say that the last combustion engine will be designed in 2023. Daimler recently brought forward its EV launch plan to 2022 from 2025 with a target of 10 models.

Concurrently Alphabet and Uber are funding research for self driving technology. Shared mobility is growing along with urbanization, a lack of desire on the part of millennials to own cars and an ageing population.

Opportunity: LIDAR sensors essential for navigation remain in short supply and few companies have the technology

to manufacture their own. Makers of batteries with large storage capacities will be in demand. Companies with global scale in manufacturing, with lower priced EV’s, will be the winners.

Digital Advertising and big data analytics

Global online ad spending at $200bn in the US is forecast to exceed TV advertising for the first time this year.

Adult Americans will spend an average of 3 hours and 17 minutes a day using mobile devices in 2017 as per eMarketer. Google and Facebook combined will control 60 to 70% of the digital ad market this year, with the former leading in search and the latter display.

Chart 5: Mobile share increase ($bn)

Source: IAB/PwC Internet Ad Revenue Report, FY 2016

Disruptive data-driven models are reshaping many industries. Data-driven approaches with dependance on

behavioural patterns will remove inefficient matching of supply and demand, underutilized assets, need for large amounts of demographic data and human biases and errors.



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Chart 6: Internet ad revenue by major industries

Source: IAB/PwC Internet Ad Revenue Report, FY 2016

In property and casualty insurance, telematics data provides insight into driving behavior and micro-segmentation based on behavioral characteristics of individuals which is used by the education, travel and leisure, media, retail, and advertising sectors.

Opportunity: The IDC expects data created to reach 44 trillion gigabytes by 2020. Winners will be companies with

above market sales growth and rising margins.

Public Cloud Market

Public cloud is being viewed as a transformational technology akin to electricity and the current $300 bn market could grow exponentially. Most enterprises are still in the early stages of adoption. Companies are realizing

that operating IT infrastructure on premises is inefficient, hence the bulk of IT workloads will shift to public cloud infrastructure.

Opportunity: The public cloud market in China is just $ 2 bn i.e. 2% of the world total. This is expected to reach $

16 bn by 2020 - a 68% CAGR. Who are the leaders? The domestic giants – Alibaba and Tencent and the global players- Amazon, Google and Microsoft.

Chart 7: Worldwide Public Cloud Services ($bn)

Source: Gartner, Feb 2017

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http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/time-for-insurance-companies-to-face-digital-reality


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Chart 8: Industry Spend on Public Cloud Services

Source: IDC, Feb 2017

Security

Technology is increasingly used in security, whether it is explosives detection or surveillance of public places through drones or robots. Improved semiconductor technology, AI algorithms and IoT provide new means to prevent security threats.

Chart 9: Worldwide Spending on Security Technology ($ bn)

Source: IDC - March 2017

Cyber security: According to Juniper Research, criminal data breaches will cost businesses trillions of dollars over

the next 5 years, due to higher levels of Internet connectivity. The number of personal data records stolen by cybercriminals will reach 2.8 billion in 2017 and this is expected to double by 2020. The Wannacry and Petra incidents illustrate the vulnerability of organizations to cyber-attacks

Chart 10: Security Spending by Technology Categories - 2016

Source: IDC - March 2017



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Opportunity: According to IDC, many industries will spend more than $5 billion each on security products in 2017. The US will be the largest market for security products throughout 2017-2020, spending $36.9 billion in security-related investments in 2017 alone. Network security (hardware and software combined) will be the largest

category of security-related spending in 2017 at $15.2bn, while endpoint security software will be the third largest category at $10.2bn

Digitization of the healthcare industry

To take care of the spiraling costs of healthcare and escape the malware attacks that have affected medical services, companies need to invest in smart and secure technology. Whether you google your symptoms, use

big data to diagnose illnesses such as IBM does through analyzing thousands of case studies, use an app that connects you to a doctor or use robots for elderly care, the healthcare industry cannot ignore technology.

Opportunity; Remote monitoring provides the highest value add in managing chronic diseases and will reduce

oversized health budgets. For example, self-management of diabetes patients through cloud connected glucose monitoring is a break-through in patient care.

Blockchain

Cryptocurrencies are the basic assets of a blockchain network, so far unhackable and thus a network for trust. The implications for the financial-services industry are immense. Most blockchains - with Bitcoin and Ethereum the biggest - are permission-less systems. We can carry out transactions without knowing who the other party is and independent from central authorities.

As of end June, Bitcoin is up 168% while Ether (Ethereum), is up 3,375%. While speculation has had a part in recent cryptocurrency gains, we are probably in the middle of a large-scale transfer of assets onto distributed ledger and blockchain applications that will define the use in finance, healthcare and trade. Data storage, digital identity, smart contracts, and digital voting are also applications which will become more secure.

Opportunity: P2P lodging sites like Airbnb, HomeAway and OneFineStay are starting to use blockchain to manage

digital credentials. Settlement of cash securities could save over $10bn in fees for the asset management industry

Chip sales will increase along with expanding workloads for data centres

Source: Bloomberg, June 2017

The technology sector will continue to provide growth in a low growth world

˃ We recommend diversified investments across technology companies with large cash balances, as they will continue to innovate and in companies that own proprietary technology, which is difficult to replicate. Those companies typically have high barriers to entry and large market share.

˃ We recommend investing in companies that are adapting to changing consumer preferences and thus become the leaders in the fast growing Internet and cloud industries, the EV market, cyber security and digital

healthcare sectors. ˃ With the developed world already mid cycle, Asia’s potential to catch up, provides additional opportunities.

Please refer to our advisory portfolios for investment recommendations.

Anita Gupta

Head of Equity Strategy



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˃ Weak GBP is making UK real estate attractive to overseas investors; ˃ Better yields available for commercial property outside of Central London;

˃ Alternative real estate offers a potential hedge against downside Brexit risks;

˃ UK housing market largely stagnant due to uncertainty. Short-term correction likely;

˃ Prime London residential values still falling principally due to amended tax regime;

Q2 2017 has been an eventful period and the recent general election results have a range of implications for the

UK’s commercial and residential real estate markets.

Despite the political turmoil, UK commercial property has made steady, if unspectacular, progress so far with a YTD

total return of 3.8%1. The key driver of the market since the ‘Brexit’ vote in June last year has been the persistent

weakness of GBP.

This has made commercial property in the UK highly desirable to overseas buyers, particularly institutions from North

America, the Far East and Europe, and they have been the dominant buyers in most sectors over the last 11 months,

particularly for large scale transactions.

Despite peak pricing concerns from domestic participants and the ongoing political disorder, the UK’s stable legal

system, robust property rights, landlord-friendly lease structures, high degree of transparency and superior market

liquidity are all overriding factors.

This flood of overseas capital has supported the market to date, although listed real estate securities have traded

sideways since the start of the year which, as a forward looking measure, indicates that UK commercial property

values will most likely remain flat for the remainder of 2017.

However, attractive yields are still available, particularly outside of Central London, and investing in alternative real

estate sectors such as student accommodation offer a potential hedge against the possible downside risks that may

arise from the ongoing Brexit negotiations.

The UK housing market has been more affected by Brexit uncertainty than the commercial market and a hung

parliament from the recent general election will only add further ambiguity. Despite supportive government policy,

favourable supply/demand fundamentals, low financing costs and largely benign economic data, the UK residential

market has been largely stagnant since the start of year.

UK Real Estate


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Top 10 Property Transactions July 2016 to June 2017

Building / Transaction Name:

Location: Sector: Price GBP m:

Vendor (nationality):

Purchaser (nationality):

123 Leadenhall Street, EC3

City of London Office 1,150

JV: British Land (UK) / Oxford Properties (Canada)

CC Land (China)

St James Quarter Edinburgh Shopping Centre

570 Henderson UK Shopping Centre Fund (UK)

APG (Netherlands)

CityPoint, EC2 City of London Office 563 N/A Brookfield Office Properties (Canada)

Project Chariot Various Alternative 500 Blackstone (USA)

Davidson Kempner Capital (USA)

78 Cannon Street, EC4 City of London Office 485 Hines (USA) Deka Immobilien (Germany)

Union State Portfolio Various Alternative 460 Blackstone (USA)

Liberty Living (Canada)

35 – 50 Rathbone Place, W1

London West End Office 435 Great Portland Estates (UK)

JV: Deka Immobilien (Germany) / WestInvest (Germany)

360 Portfolio Various Alternative 430 Oaktree Capital Management (USA)

JV: GIC RE (Singapore) / GSA (UK)

M&S Portfolio Various Retail 410 Topland Group (UK)

Fortress Investment Group (USA)

334 -338 Oxford Street, W1

London West End Retail 400 British Land (UK)

Ramsbury Estates (Sweden)

Source: Propertydata, 20171

1 Data from 01 Jan 2017 to 31 May 2017. Source: MSCI, 2017

The election result will certainly not lead to an improvement in sentiment so a short-term correction seems likely

although there will be no severe price falls. In Central London, the luxury residential sector continues to labour under

a high tax burden in addition to the ongoing uncertainty.

Unlike the rest of the UK housing market, the amended tax regime, not domestic politics, has been the key driver of

the sustained price corrections. In the current political environment, these changes are unlikely to be repealed for

the foreseeable future so further price falls are anticipated; although there will come a time when overseas investors

see value and will re-enter the market, thus arresting any declines.

Nigel Burton Director, Real Estate Investments

UK Real Estate


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˃ Indian domestic bonds continue to offer value

˃ Within EM local currency debt, INR bonds most preferred

˃ Promising growth prospects offers a sustainable proposition

˃ Foreign capital inflows a strong technical support

India’s growth prospects are being boosted by government reforms. The following are the most significant

contributors

˃ Goods & Services tax

˃ Bankruptcy code – further governance and control to deal with non-performing assets to support banking

system

˃ Energy sector reforms – implementation of debt-restructuring schemes

˃ Foreign direct investment – liberalization of FDI rules across defence, broadcasting services, civil aviation,

pharmaceuticals, banking, insurance etc

˃ Infrastructure – a new railway regulator was approved by the cabinet to enable awarding licenses for private

freight train terminals. A regional air connectivity scheme was introduced to boost tourism and improve across

domestic connectivity. Motor vehicle act was made more stringent

˃ Agriculture marketing – reducing margins taken by distributors to curb food inflation. Reforms introduced to

encourage private investment and lower monopolist held by licensed traders

Indian debt well supported

The cost of insuring debt has fallen to record levels signifying sentiment towards the Eurobonds and supports a

lower cost of borrowing. The consistent path of economic reforms and reduced political risk premium has supported

investor sentiment towards Indian debt, in both the domestic and Eurobond markets.

Chart 1: India five-year Credit Default Swaps – lowest level ever

Source: Bloomberg data as of 30 June 2017

Stability in currency supports the carry trade

The Indian Rupee (INR) has been well supported by consistent positive developments, both from a fiscal and

monetary standpoint. As the U.S reflation trade loses steam, inflationary downside pressures led by lower oil prices

could also be attributed to the strength of the Indian Rupee. We expect the INR to remain under control given the

build-up of the nation’s foreign exchange reserves. The recent appreciation in INR has brought into focus the fact

that India’s Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) has been in the overvalued zone since the start of 2015. The

overvaluation essentially implies limited correction in inflation and productivity dynamics between India and its trading

partners. Hence, we believe that it would be a mistake to read too much into the REER as a minor appreciation over

the last two years does not mean overvaluation. Moreover, if the market two years ago did not believe that the INR

was overvalued, nothing has changed in the interim to suggest otherwise.

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2015 2016 2017

Bps

Reinforcing the view on India’s domestic debt


17


Chart 2: USD/INR Exchange Rate

Source: Bloomberg data as of 30 June 2017, Emirates NBD Research

Chart 3: India Real Effective Exchange Rate

Source: Bloomberg data as of 30 June 2017, Emirates NBD Research

Chart 4: FX reserves at record highs - support INR volatility

Source: Bloomberg data as of 16 June 2017.

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62

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66

68

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Price USD/INR

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85

90

95

100

105

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Index

-

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100,000,000,000

150,000,000,000

200,000,000,000

250,000,000,000

300,000,000,000

350,000,000,000

400,000,000,000

450,000,000,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

US$



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Robust capital inflows provide a technical backdrop alongside improving fundamentals

Indian Government bonds have been supported by investor flows both internationally and domestically. Within

broader emerging markets, Indian debt has stood up as the favourite trade given the strong monetary policy

framework as well as the implementation of various reforms. Our view on further yield compression led by policy

rate cuts is intact and we could see a compelling case for the “Carry Trade” to gain further momentum. The 10-

Year Indian government bond yield could re-test 2009 levels and strengthen towards the 6% level, as investor

sentiment towards the hunt for yield theme remains intact.

Chart 5: 10-Yr Indian Government bond yield


Chart 6: India Sovereign bond Index


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5

6

7

8

9

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11

12

13

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Yield %

6.25

6.75

7.25

7.75

8.25

8.75

9.25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Yield %



19


Foreign investor capital inflows surge

Chart 7: Net foreign equity investment 12M YOY change (USD)


Chart 8: Net foreign Debt investment 12M rolling sum (USD)


-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

USD

-15000

-10000

-5000

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10000

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USD



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Chart 9: Easy money conditions in India have eased liquidity concerns


Table 1: Economic forecasts – contributor composite (Bloomberg estimates)

Indicator FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Economic Activity Real GDP (YoY %) 9.40 7.70 4.80 4.70 6.40 7.50 8.00 7.10 7.50 7.80 Gross Fixed Investment 4.80 1.80 4.10 6.50 0.00 4.80 5.80 Price Indices Consumer Price Index (YoY %) 12.10 8.90 9.30 10.90 6.40 5.90 5.00 4.97 4.50 5.00 External Balance Current Account (% of GDP) -3.30 -3.50 -5.10 -2.60 -1.40 -1.10 -0.60 -0.80 -1.30 -1.50

Fiscal Balance Budget (% of GDP) -9.20 -5.50 -5.50 -4.30 -3.50 -3.70 -3.50 -3.20 -3.00 Interest Rates Central Bank Rate (%) 6.25 8.50 8.00 7.75 8.00 6.75 6.25 6.20 3-Month Rate (%) 9.00 9.84 8.92 9.06 8.65 7.80

2-Year Note (%) 7.47 8.11 8.02 8.43 7.98 7.49 6.35

10-Year Note (%) 7.92 8.57 8.05 8.82 7.86 7.76 6.51 6.91 Exchange Rates USDINR 44.71 53.06 54.99 61.80 63.04 66.15 67.92 65.50 66.00 67.00

Source: Bloomberg data as of 15 June 2017 Yahya Sultan, Fixed Income Strategist

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

03-16 05-16 07-16 09-16 11-16 01-17 03-17 05-17

Weighted Average Call Money Rate Benchmark Repurchase Rate

Weighted call money rate has

averaged about 6% this year,

less than the current repo rate of

6.25%



21


EQUITIES Index 1 day Q1 1mth 12mths YTD PE Yield

US large cap 2363 -0.2% 5.5% 0.0% 14.7% 5.5% 21.8 2.0%

US small cap 1386 0.3% 2.1% -0.1% 24.4% 2.1% 47.5 1.4%

Eurozone 3501 0.6% 6.4% 5.5% 16.5% 6.4% 20.5 3.3%

UK 7323 -0.6% 2.5% 0.8% 18.6% 2.5% 38.4 3.9%

Hong Kong 24112 -0.8% 9.6% 1.6% 16.1% 9.6% 13.4 3.4%

Australia 5865 -0.5% 3.5% 2.7% 15.4% 3.5% 20.2 4.1%

China H shares 10274 -0.8% 9.4% -0.2% 14.1% 9.4% 8.6 3.5%

China 3223 0.4% 3.8% -0.6% 7.3% 3.8% 18.8 1.7%

Brazil 64984 -0.4% 7.9% -2.5% 29.8% 7.9% 14.6 2.8%

India 29621 -0.1% 11.2% 3.1% 16.9% 11.2% 22.0 1.3%

Russia 1996 -1.3% -10.6% -2.0% 6.7% -10.6% 7.3 4.4%

Dubai 3480 1.0% -1.4% -4.1% 3.7% -1.4% 14.8 3.9%

Abu Dhabi 4444 0.2% -2.3% -2.4% 1.2% -2.3% 16.7 5.4%

Saudi Arabia 7002 0.8% -2.9% 0.4% 12.5% -2.9% 17.4 3.4%

Qatar 10391 -0.3% -0.4% -2.9% 0.1% -0.4% 15.4 3.7%

BONDS Index 1day Q1 1mth 12mths YTD Yield Spread

Global Developed Sovereign

110 -0.2% 1.79% 0.12% -3.43% 1.79% 0.9% -

Global Investment Grade

125.771 0.0% 1.48% -0.05% 0.81% 1.48% 2.5% 113

Global High yield 164.899 0.0% 2.98% -0.01% 13.57% 2.98% 5.2% 381

USD Emerging Market 161.01 -0.1% 3.51% 0.48% 9.05% 3.51% 4.8% 270

US Government 124.399 0.1% 0.69% -0.04% -1.31% 0.69% 1.9% 4

USD Investment grade Corporate

145.482 0.1% 1.26% -0.18% 3.21% 1.26% 3.3% 124

USD High yield Corporate

174.776 0.1% 2.94% -0.14% 16.56% 2.94% 5.5% 394

Euro Investment grade Corporate

137.619 0.0% 0.08% -0.42% 1.88% 0.08% 0.8% 93

Euro High Yield Corporate

175.636 0.1% 1.43% -0.12% 8.16% 1.43% 3.5% 304

USD EM Sovereign 164.221 -0.1% 3.50% 0.65% 7.50% 3.50% 4.7% 249

USD EM Corporate 159.082 0.0% 3.53% 0.34% 10.28% 3.53% 4.8% 288

Local EM Sovereign 127.457 -0.3% 4.02% 1.34% -0.03% 4.02% 4.6% 2

Forex Rate 1day bps Q1 1mth 12mths YTD

Euro Spot 1.065 -0.21 1.28% 0.72% -6.40% 1.28%

British Pound Spot 1.255 0.66 1.70% 1.37% -12.60% 1.70%

Japanese Yen Spot 111.39 -0.47 -4.76% -1.22% -1.05% -4.76%

Canadian Dollar Spot 1.332 -0.17 -0.92% 0.13% 2.41% -0.92%

Australian Dollar Spot 0.763 -0.16 5.84% -0.37% -0.37% 5.84%

New Zealand Dollar Spot 0.701 0.14 1.04% -2.59% 1.40% 1.04%

Swiss Franc Spot 1.003 0.14 -1.61% -0.32% 4.24% -1.61%

Norwegian Krone Spot 8.599 0.42 -0.49% 2.44% 3.99% -0.49%

Swedish Krona Spot 8.971 0.31 -1.49% -0.73% 10.51% -1.49%

China Renminbi Spot 6.887 -0.03 -0.83% 0.29% 6.72% -0.83% Data as at 30th June 2017. Source: Bloomberg, 2017

Market Performance Review


22


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THIRD QUARTER 2017 OUTLOOK From the CIO Office · Third Quarter 2017 Outlook ... Head of Asset...

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