ThinkSmallCell  Webinar  Series  Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight  

 David  Chambers  Founder  and  Senior  Analyst  ThinkSmallCell  

Caroline  Gabriel  Head  of  Research  Rethink  Technology  Research  

Joe  Madden  Founder  and  Principal  Analyst  Mobile  Experts  

Dec 2014

Agenda  

§  IntroducGon,  David  Chambers,  ThinkSmallCell  

§  Analyst  Forecasts  and  AssumpGons  §  Caroline  Gabriel,  Rethink  Research  §  Joe  Madden,  Mobile  Experts  

§  QuesGon  and  Answer  Session  

§  Conclusion  

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Residen'al   Enterprise   Urban   Rural/Remote  

Common  name  

Femtocell   Enterprise  Small  Cell  (including  those  with  local  controller)  

Metrocell  Urban  Small  Cell  

Rural  Small  Cell    Special  projects  

CompeGGon   Wi-­‐Fi  Voice  (UMA,  VoWiFi,  Apps)  Repeaters  

DAS  (Distributed  Antenna  Systems)  DRS  (Distributed  Radio  Systems)  Enterprise  Wi-­‐Fi  

Outdoor  DAS  Remote  Radio  Heads  Carrier  Wi-­‐Fi  

Higher  towers  Hilltop  repeaters  

The  different  categories  of  small  cells  

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Issues  with  small  cell  forecasts?    

•  It’s  always  “next  year”?  –  How  confident  can  we  be  that  Small  Cell  uptake  isn’t  a  false  dawn?  

•  Wi-­‐Fi  already  dominates  smartphone  data  traffic  –  Does  this  remove  or  complement  the  need  for  cellular  Small  Cells?  

•  The  range  of  technology  choices  conGnues  to  grow  –  DAS,  DRS,  Wi-­‐Fi,  Small  Cell,  NFV….  Is  this  paralysing  operator  plans?  

 •  How  do  Small  Cell  forecasts  differ  between  radio  technologies?  

–  3G  UMTS,  3G  CDMA,  4G/LTE,  TD-­‐LTE,  MulG-­‐Mode  3G/LTE/Wi-­‐Fi  

Analyst  Viewpoint  Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight  

 David  Chambers  Founder  and  Senior  Analyst  ThinkSmallCell  

Caroline  Gabriel  Head  of  Research  Rethink  Research  

Joe  Madden  Founder  and  Principal  Analyst  Mobile  Experts  

Urban and enterprise cells Public access, indoors and outdoors

Tipping point in late 2015

Indoor public small cell leads first wave, then enterprise

Outdoor urban gathers pace from late 2015

Multimode WiFi/cellular key enabler from 2015 – NGH

Peak in 2018 – first wave complete, carriers start to look to new architecture

© Rethink Technology Research 2014

Source: Rethink Technology Research

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Dec 2014

Broader definitions emerge Roll-outs have been slower than some expected

LTE Costs Standards SON

Broader definition

Large numbers of homogeneous cells

Distributed radio(C-RAN)

Distributed antenna (DAS)

Wi-Fi

© Rethink Technology Research 2014

Source: Rethink Technology Research

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DAS nodes NFV small cell

Dec 2014

Analyst  Viewpoint  Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight  

 David  Chambers  Founder  and  Senior  Analyst  ThinkSmallCell  

Caroline  Gabriel  Head  of  Research  Rethink  Research  

Joe  Madden  Founder  and  Principal  Analyst  Mobile  Experts  

Who  the  Heck  is  Mobile  Experts?  

§  Small,  specialty  market  analysis  firm  §  Founded  in  2002  §  6  Analysts  +  office  staff  §  Based  in  Silicon  Valley  §  Analysts  are  20-­‐year  experts  in  their  respective  topics  

§  Market  Forecasts  §  Mobile  Base  Stations  §  Small  Cells  §  DAS  §  Sync  for  Mobile  Networks  

§  Service  Provider  Wi-­‐Fi  §  Cloud  RAN  §  Backhaul  §  Semiconductors  

Mobile  Experts  Small  Cell  forecast  ResidenGal  Femto    market  will  see  incremental  growth    Significant  growth  in  enterprise  and  urban  small  cells      CRAN  topology  will  drive  RRH  units  with  centralized/virtualized  baseband  processing  

Wi-­‐Fi  will  take  a  higher  share  We’ve  changed  our  forecast  of  the  balance  between    Wi-­‐Fi  and  Small  Cells    Wi-­‐Fi  calling  and  Hotspot  2.0  have  the  potenGal  to  draw  more  traffic  to  Wi-­‐Fi    2014  deployment  of  public  Wi-­‐Fi  APs  outnumbered  public  small  cells  by  10x    

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How  closely  do  these  analyst  forecast  match  your  own  predicGons?  

1)  Analysts  are  too  opGmisGc/too  high  2)  About  right  3)  Analysts  are  too  pessimisGc  4)  I  have  absolutely  no  idea  5)  Too  many  uncertainGes  to  predict  with  any  confidence  

Audience  Poll  -­‐  QuesGon  

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Q&A  Session  Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight  

 David  Chambers  Founder  and  Senior  Analyst  ThinkSmallCell  

Caroline  Gabriel  Head  of  Research  Rethink  Research  

Joe  Madden  Founder  and  Principal  Analyst  Mobile  Experts  

Closing  Comments  Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight  

 David  Chambers  Founder  and  Senior  Analyst  ThinkSmallCell  

Caroline  Gabriel  Head  of  Research  Rethink  Research  

Joe  Madden  Founder  and  Principal  Analyst  Mobile  Experts  

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•  Contact  today’s  analysts  –  ThinkSmallCell:              www.thinksmallcell.com  –  Mobile  Experts:            www.mobile-­‐experts.net  –  Rethink  Research:            www.rethinkresearch.biz  

More  informaGon