Think Big and Long

• Scale - Global System

• Time - Global systems don’t change instantly

Table 9r-1: Estimated major stores of carbon on the Earth.

SinkAmount in Billions of Metric

Tons

Atmosphere578 (as of 1700) - 766 (as of

1999)

Soil Organic Matter 1500 to 1600

Ocean 38,000 to 40,000

Marine Sediments and Sedimentary Rocks

66,000,000 to 100,000,000

Terrestrial Plants 540 to 610

Fossil Fuel Deposits 4000

PROXY DATA

• Natural systems are dependent on climate

• We derive palaeoclimatic information from from proxy data

• Proxy records of climate all contain a climatic signal

• The following is a list of sources of proxy data

  A. Sediments    1. Marine (ocean sediment cores)      i) Organic sediments (planktonic & benthic fossils)              Oxygen isotopes              Faunal & floral abundances              Morphological variations      ii) Inorganic sediments              Mineralogical composition & surface texture              Distribution of terrigenous material              Ice-rafted debris              Geochemistry    2. Terrestrial              Periglacial features               Glacial deposits & erosional features              Glacio-eustatic features (shorelines)              Aeolian deposits (sand dunes)              Lacustrine deposits/varves (lakes)  B. Sedimentary Rocks              Facies analysis              Fossil/microfossil analysis              Mineral analysis              Isotope geochemistry

PROXY DATA

• Biological    Tree rings (width, density, isotope analysis)     Pollen (species, abundances)     Insects

• Historical  meteorological records       parameteorological records

      phenological records (biological indicators)

Proxy Data

• Integrating all these kinds of data is a challenge

• Some proxy data is more sensitive to climate changes than others

• These differences in response are sometimes used by people to make cases that warming trends are not real because the scientists can’t agree on what the data suggests, exactly.

Glaciological (Ice Cores)              Oxygen isotopes              Physical properties              Trace element & microparticle concentrations

Copyright ©2006 by the National Academy of Sciences

Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 10536-10543

Fig. 2. Glacier retreat as documented in the Peruvian Andes

Copyright ©2006 by the National Academy of Sciences

Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 10536-10543

Fig. 6. Climate reconstructions over the last two centuries

The time series shows the combined global land and marine surface temperature record from 1856 to 2001. Data from Jones et al., 1998; and from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (www.cru.uea.ac.uk; compilation by Phil Jones). http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

Warming over the past 50 years

Current Levels of CO2

• 379 parts per million 2002

• Increases at a current rate of 3 parts per million

• 2,000 parts per million by the time fossil fuels are depleted

• 2002 Kump, Nature

 

 

                                                     

                                                              

http://www.geosystems.org/index.html

Deep Time Climates: Their Relevance to Climate Change and Value to Petroleum Exploration (SEPM/AAPG)

Is It Time for a Rebirth in The Geologic Application of Climate Models?

Deep Time Paleoclimate Modeling and Natural Resource Exploration: Status and Future Challenges

Using Climate Model Experiments of Orbital Cycles to Understand Stratigraphic Variability

• Earth system science provides a unifying context to demonstrate the Interrelationships between all components of the Earth system and humanity.

• New Earth system science courses and curricula must implement best teaching practices to educate all constituencies, including under represented groups in science.

• The Earth and space science community must change its academic culture to actively support reform of science education, and promote a recognition and reward structure that values excellence in the education of all students.

• AGU, NSF Keck Geology Consortium

We could be moving ourselves out of the Ice Age

• We used to cycle between glacial and interglacial periods

• In order to estimate the result of current warming trends and elevated CO2 we need to go back into deep time

• We have to have to realize there will be no quick fix and global systems do not respond instantly

What we can do

• More integrative studies among scientists in both academic and industrial settings

• Scientists need to communicate better with the general public

• Education ELEVATE EARTH SCIENCE TO THE IMPORTANT PLACE IT DESERVES IN OUR SCHOOLS

• Operate under the assumption that warming trend will continue