Thingmonk 2015
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Transcript of Thingmonk 2015
it’s none of your effing
business
Computers cannot think.Machines have to learn.From us.We will have to have a conversation, James.Why are you late, James?
James? I asked why you are late.@BorisAdryan
modified, image from http://www.householdappliancesworld.com
health management
air conditioning
smart heating
communications
security
entertainment
lighting controlweather monitoring
room occupancy
health management
air conditioning
smart heating
communications
security
entertainment
lighting controlweather monitoring
room occupancy
app overload makes us dumb
time
sleep monitor
schedule
location awareness
building control mobilitycapacity
weather
prioritisingplanning
provisioning
raw datainformation
knowledge
actionable insight
action
reaction
barometric pressure, temperature, coordinates, schedule, …
snow storm coming, airport hotel, need to travel
flying and snow don’t go together
rebook flight
“context”structure
rules
“conversational”dynamicacquired
acquiring knowledge == learning
machine learning
creative thinking!=
decision makingwithstatistics + algorithms
==
there’s no absolute truth out there
data
✓hard facts ✓ intuitive
probability
✓ likelihood of some hypothesis being true given the data
30 40 50 60 70average speed at this point [MPH]
time to target [min]
10
20
30
40
50
we have a sense for simple probabilities
datatemperature wind speed
wind direction precipitation air pressure airport code
airline aircraft
fully booked? avg delays
cancellations serve booze?
black box
trainingflights
cancelled in the past
classifierranked list of
relevant features
weight of features
thresholds for features
performance metric
new data
prediction
good decisions are based on
experience
machine learning is an iterative
process
training
classifier
performance assessment
good enough?
get on with life
mor
e da
ta fo
r tra
inin
g
data
noyes
the issue with missing data
given all relevant features, machine learning can discover the causality between them
self-learning systems will have to seek ‘missing’ data
other than saying ‘urgent meeting’ in the calendar, how can the system know it’s really urgent?
…preemptively
things getting more creepy…
“Is there something you should tell me, Boris?I thought your wife was travelling…”
…when they’re conversational