THEY CAN GNAW THROUGH STUCCO!!!
description
Transcript of THEY CAN GNAW THROUGH STUCCO!!!
Built By Advisors For Advisors
THEY CAN GNAW THROUGH STUCCO!!!
People Think They’re Cute
Built By Advisors For Advisors
BIGFOOT INVESTMENTS OPEN FORUM
Apr 18th, 2013
WELCOME!
Built By Advisors For Advisors
AGENDA WELCOME! ADMIN NOTESQUOTE OF THE DAYOPTIMISM GAUGECHARTS OF INTERESTSO WHAT’S UP WITH: THE “MYSTERY SUBJECT” A CLOSER LOOK AT: MX DAVID’S CORNERSWAPS AND SPREADSLEE’S COMMENTS QUESTIONS/COMMENTS
Built By Advisors For Advisors
IF YOU USE ANY OF OUR SLIDES, PLEASE REMEMBER TOHAVE THEM APPROVED BY YOUR COMPLIANCE DEPARTMENT.
WE’LL UN-MUTE YOU ON OUR END SO YOU CAN ASK QUESTIONS.
PLEASE MUTE AUDIO FROM THE MENU ON YOUR SCREEN SO WE DO NOT GET FEEDBACK.
THANK YOU!
“NOTES”
Built By Advisors For Advisors
BigFoot Investments is now on Twitter, LinkedIn!
Built By Advisors For Advisors
BigFoot On LinkedIn!
Don’t Forget To Join Our “Group”
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Notifying You!
SMS Alert System
Built By Advisors For Advisors
QUOTE OF THE DAY:If I’d just tried for those dinky singles…..
Babe Ruth
….I could’ve batted around 600!
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Optimism Gauge
As of: 4/18/2013
Indicator Current Value Prior/Metric Value Current Value
St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index -0.632 -0.678(Revised) +1.0
Chicago Fed National Act Index (3 Mon Mov Av) 0.09 0.28(Revised) -.50
Unemployment 7.7 7.9 (Revised) +.50Weekly Jobless Claims (4Wk Mov Av) 361,250 358,500(Revised) -.50
ECRI Weekly Index 6.2 6.2 (Revised) +.50Conf Board Leading Indicators (NEW) 94.7 94.8 -1.0
University of Michigan Sentiment - Final 78.6(Final – Mar 2013) 77.6(Final-Feb 2012) -.25Monthly Retail Sales (Adjusted) 416,990 416,070 +.50NFIB Small Business Sentiment 89.5 90.8 -.50ISM Manufacturing 51.3
(Expansion Line = 50) 54.2 +.50
Economic Capacity Utilization 78.5 78.3(Revised) +.50Stock Market Moving Averages Weekly Data Points >50-day MA/>100-Day MA N/A
+.50
S&P Case-Shiller 20 City Comp Index 146.14 145.95 (Revised) +.50
Total +1.75Last Update: 4/18/2013
Measuring Our Economy
NOTES/COMMENTS CURRENT READING: 59.1%
PRIOR READING: 67.7%
BIAS: SLIGHTLY BULLISH
8 OF 13 INDICATORS POSITIVE
TREND - DOWN
EconomicOptimism
Index
15
25
35
45 65
75
85
95
59.1%
READING AS OF: 4/18/2013
POSITIVE AS OF: 8/17/2012
Current Reading Prior Reading
Measuring Our Economy
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Charts of Interest!
Built By Advisors For Advisors
“HEADLINE” DATA
Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo
Built By Advisors For Advisors
BUT REALLY A “TALE OF 3 CITIES!”
BUT A REALLY IMPORTANT
METRIC
THE HEADLINE!
Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo
Built By Advisors For AdvisorsSource: EIA
CONSUMER “GOODNESS”
Built By Advisors For Advisors
The ZEW StudyCenter for European Economic Research
Source: EIA
Monthly Data Up to 350 financial experts Survey of expectations for the next 6 months Done for: Eurozone; Japan; Great Britain; U.S.A. Very respected publication
Built By Advisors For Advisors
The ZEW Study
Source: EIA
Built By Advisors For Advisors
The ZEW Study
Source: EIA
Built By Advisors For Advisors
IN THE “SAFE” ZONE
Source: Chicago Fed
CREDIT BAROMETERS
Built By Advisors For Advisors
2 GOOD NUMBERS
Built By Advisors For Advisors
2 OU
T OF 3 IS GO
OD
Over 1M – High since
2008
Built By Advisors For Advisors
SO WHAT’S UP WITH: THE MYSTERY SUBJECT?
Built By Advisors For Advisors
LET ME TELL YOU A STORYABOUT WHY PEOPLE DO THINGS
BECAUSE AFTER ALL….IN THE VALLEY OF THE BLIND THE ONE-EYED MAN IS KING… OR SO HE THINKS!
ENTHUSIASM THIS WILL WORK FOR ME WHY SHOULDN’T I ? DON’T UNDERSTAND – DON’T TRY “THEY” SAY SO RUMOR IS FACT I BELIEVE…….YES!!! NOW’S THE TIME! I’LL DO IT TIME TO BRAG GO FOR MORE SO MANY JOIN ME – GETS EVEN BETTER
THE STORY CHANGES THE SPELL IS BROKEN THERE ARE EXPLANATIONS FINGERS POINT BLAME, CONSPIRACY CAN’T BE WRONG…CAN I? WHY DID I DO THAT??
IT’S AN OLD STORY
DISILLUSIONMENT
IT LOOKS GREAT
SIMPLE….RIGHT?
NO
W
COMPLICATIONS …CAN’T BE!
WELL…THERE WERESOME UPS AND DOWNS
DON’T CONFUSE ME WITH DATA ….I’LL BE FINE
SEE..I’M OK
..OR NOT
WHAT THE HECK?
EPITAPH: It is all so easy until it’s not
You just think you know things –they are not as they appear Understanding is the key
Adapting to change is difficult You must adjust to the facts
THE END!
WELL ….THERE’S A MORAL TO THE STORY
YOU ARE ALWAYS “BEING SOLD” LIMITS ARE YOUR FRIEND WARNINGS ARE JUST THAT LOOKING BACK IT WAS ALWAYS SO OBVIOUS YOU WILL BE TEMPTED WHERE WAS YOUR PROCESS? IS THE ONE-EYED MAN REALLY A KING?
SO WE’RE TALKING ABOUT GOLD
BUT YOU KNEW THAT!
SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?
SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?
OUR LITTLE STORY TELLS A TALE OF MISUNDERSTANDING BUT THERE ARE SOME PERTINENT
THOUGHTS, ANALYSIS, & POSSIBILITIES
Source: Business Insider/ETF Trends
SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?
SOME THOUGHTS The price pattern is broken when demand no longer outstrips supply The declining price, in turn, further reduces price And so on…. Fear “arrives”
Source: Business Insider/ETF Trends
SOME ANALYSIS Gold is a commodity In the past we “pegged” it to something – now it’s difficult It’s not the ultimate currency – AS ONCE THOUGHT Subject to many forces in a global economy Will probably continue to trend down until we have a strong external influence The reasons gold has gone up may continue to pull it down:
Economic environment ETF holdings New/revised estimates (think Goldman Sachs) Cyclical pattern
SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?
Source: Business Insider/ETF Trends
OTHER FACTORS: Failed technical levels Bank of Japan actions U.S. Dollar Margin Calls Piling on by hedge funds Momentum/Model based trading FOMC minutes suggesting earlier rise in rates
SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?
Source: Business Insider/ETF Trends
POSSIBILITIES: Large hedge funds moving out of gold Federal Reserve sales Central Bank selling Cypress unloading gold reserves
SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?
Source: Business Insider/ETF Trends
WILL IT STAY DOWN? Depends on your macro view Depends on your definition of “investing” World debt burdens are a threat Fiat currencies erode faith Secular trend still in place Gold supply is getting more limited Emerging market buying? Recent sell-off is very technical Weaker dollar on horizon with debt issues Large short positions could trigger covering
SO WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?
Source: Business Insider/ETF Trends
THREE SLIDES TO THINK ABOUT
HISTORICAL RELATIONSHOP BETWEEN GOLD/INFLATION
Average
3.33
RATIO OF GOLD TO INFLATION Now6.84
Source: FRED
GOLD DOES NOT CORRELATE WELL WITH INFLATION DATA
Source: FRED
GOLD AND THE STOCK MARKET (S&P 500)
Source: FRED
Built By Advisors For Advisors
A CLOSER LOOK AT: MX
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Enters Portfolio
MagnaChip Semiconductor Corp (MX)MagnaChip Semiconductor Corporation designs and manufactures analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products for high-volume consumer applications. It operates in three segments: Display Solutions, Power Solutions, and Semiconductor Manufacturing Services. The Display Solutions segment offers source and gate drivers, and timing controllers that cover a range of flat panel displays used in liquid crystal displays
(LCDs), light emitting diodes (LEDs), 3D and organic light emitting diode televisions and displays, notebooks, and mobile communications and entertainment devices. The Power Solutions segment develop,
manufactures, and markets power management solutions, including metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors, power modules, analog switches, LED drivers, DC-DC converters, voice coil motor drivers, and
linear regulators. This segment offers its products for a range of devices, including LCD, LED, 3D televisions, smartphones, mobile phones, desktop PCs, notebooks, tablet PCs, and other consumer electronics, as well
as for industrial applications, such as power suppliers, LED lighting, and home appliances. The Semiconductor Manufacturing Services segment manufactures various products comprising display drivers, LED drivers, audio encoding and decoding devices, microcontrollers, touch screen controllers, RF switches,
park distance control sensors for automotives, electronic tag memories, and power management semiconductors. This segment offers semiconductor manufacturing services to fabless analog and mixed-
signal semiconductor companies. MagnaChip Semiconductor Corporation provides its products and services to consumer electronics OEMs, subsystem designers, and contract manufacturers through a direct sales force, as well as through a network of authorized agents and distributors in the United States, Korea,
Taiwan, China, Japan, Hong Kong, and Macau. The company is headquartered in Seoul, South Korea.
Source: FinViz.com, April 2013
Sources: PR Newswire, February 2013Seeking Alpha, February 2013
POSITIVES: MagnaChip is a leading designer and manufacturer of analog and mixed signal semiconductor products. These chips are a main driving force behind touch solutions for mobile phones and PC applications.
Possible concerns: The company has a high receivables rate. As a percentage of current assets it’s sitting around 35.88%
MagnaChip Semiconductor Corp (MX)
Built By Advisors For Advisors
ENTERS PORTFOLIO 4/1/2013
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Trade Data
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Performance
April 2013 Stock Picks
As of March 28, 2013 - Subject to change.
Industry:Semiconductors
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Dow Tech Index
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Dow Semiconductor
Built By Advisors For Advisors
FINVIZ SUMMARY
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Schwab Earnings Report
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Nasdaq.com Research
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Built By Advisors For Advisors
Built By Advisors For Advisors
THE CHARTS PLEASE!
Built By Advisors For Advisors
DAVID’S CORNER
Built By Advisors For Advisors
SWAPS & “SPREADS”
IGNORE AT YOUR PERIL
Built By Advisors For Advisors
SWAPS AND SPREADSRATE PRIOR CURRENT STATUS*
Libor/OIS 14.55 14.00
Euribor/Eonia .133 .130
DTCC RepoIndex
Agency .209 .193
MBS .228 .208Treas .202 .180
High Yield 4.87 4.78Federal ReserveCurrency Swaps
(ECB)USD million
7 Day 505 1,200Open 7,551 7,551
2-Year Swap Spread .146 .150 *Note: Status = No impact
Status = Negative Impact
As Of: 4/17/2013
CREDIT ANTICIPATES – EQUITY CONFIRMS
Built By Advisors For Advisors
LEE’S COMMENTS
Built By Advisors For AdvisorsSource: Gartner Research
UNDERSTANDING EMOTION IN THE MARKET
PROCESS DESIGNED IN 1995 TO CYCLES IN THE TECH MARKET IDEA WAS TO EXPLAIN PRODUCT CYCLES AND DETERMINE IF A PARTICULAR TECHNOLOGY WAS “READY” SINCE THEN – APPLIED TO DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES COULD WELL BE APPLIED TO MARKETS GET’S TO THE HEART OF OVER-ENTHUSIASM POINTS TO PROCESS
Built By Advisors For AdvisorsSource: Gartner Research
UNDERSTANDING EMOTION IN THE MARKET
Built By Advisors For Advisors
QUESTIONS & COMMENTS
THANKS FOR JOINING US!
Built By Advisors For Advisors
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
Content is intended for investment professional use/review only. Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future
performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot Investments.com), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this presentation will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for any investment professional’s clients portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. The investment professional retains
all decision making authority as to whether or not to follow and/or implement any of the presentation content. BigFoot has absolutely no responsibly for any suitability determination pertaining to any of the investment professional’s clients, such
obligation being exclusively the initial and ongoing responsibility of the investment professional. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.
Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this presentation serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot Investments.com. BigFoot Investments.com. is neither a law
firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. Investment Professional acknowledges that to the extent required to do so, it is his/her/its exclusively responsibility to advise
his/her/its employer/broker-dealer of its BigFoot subscription. BigFoot Investments.com is a service of Lee Johnson Capital Management, an SEC registered investment adviser located in Fort Worth, Texas. A copy of the Lee Johnson Capital Management
LLC’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.
No Sharing of Content: You acknowledge that the presentation content is for investment professional use only. You warrant and represent not to share any portion of the presentation content with any non-subscriber, including but not limited to your
clients or prospects