THEORY OF CHANGEVS LOGIC MODEL

GUELPH EVALUATION CAFÉ

THEORY OF CHANGE… IS IT JUST A MORE ELABORATE,MORE ROBUST VERSION OF A LOGIC MODEL?

Depends who you ask

THEORY OF CHANGE VS LOGIC MODEL… WHY THE CONFUSION?• “Theory of change” and “logic model” terms are often used

interchangeably and there are many hybrid or blended approaches

• Models of change• Pathways mapping• Causal pathway• Outcomes chain• Others

THEORY OF CHANGE VS LOGIC MODEL…

• They share some similarities… • both represent a critical thinking approach to program

design, monitoring, and evaluation • both typically identify outcomes and present a causal

pathway• both should be reviewed / refined regularly to reflect

emerging conditions and new knowledge

THEORY OF CHANGE VS LOGIC MODEL… SOME DISTINCTIONS (MY PERSPECTIVE)

Theory of Change Logic ModelArticulates the ultimate ‘big picture’ outcome (e.g. societal change)

Narrower scope – program specific outcome (e.g. individual/group change)

Makes assumptions explicit about how change will happen and details the contextual conditions that will influence outcomes

Practical view of the relationship between program inputs and results

Deeper reflective process on beliefs, values, worldviews, historical ideas and philosophies of change – there can be multiple causal pathways

Narrower focus on the specific activities we intend to implement and the specific outcomes we hope to achieve

Cross-checked with evidence from a broad body of analytical perspectives and knowledge

Progress toward achieving outcomes is demonstrated through measurable indicators

Often illustrated through a diagram or flow chart

Often illustrated through a matrix or flow chart

THEORY OF CHANGE VS LOGIC MODEL… VISUALIZED

Source: Derived from Clark and Anderson 2004: 8–10

Logic models can be a bit fuzzy on the details that link program activities and outcomes

Image credit: Sidney Harris

BRIDGING THE ‘MISSING MIDDLE’

• Theories of change explain how and why we expect the desired change to come about… helps to clarify what is happening ‘behind the arrows’

• They can also acknowledge the weaknesses / limitations in the logic and how we might address them (informs program strategy)

Activities

Outcomes

CASE IN POINT…

• Activity = after school youth recreation program

Precondition = youth are mentored by skilled instructors twice a week for a period of six months… no more than 5 youth per instructor

(Proven or ideal treatment / dosage vs. experimental)

• Outcome = improved leadership and life skills for youth participants

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A GOOD THEORY EXPLAINS WHAT CONDITIONS NEED TO BE IN PLACE BEFORE ANOTHER CONDITION CAN CHANGE

• Attitude• Knowledge• Environments• Systems• Policies• Other?

TOC IS HELPFUL FOR PROGRAM PLANNING…

• Because it looks at the ‘bigger picture’ of factors that can influence change, TOC can assist in identifying…

• what the organization can reasonably influence / leverage with its own resources and activities

• where responsibilities need to be shared with other organizations• actions that other organizations need to take full responsibility for

• TOC helps to think through and question our assumptions… it can contribute to the development of a more realistic, doable, and testable program

TOC IS HELPFUL FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION…

• With an understanding of the type of change that we can and cannot realistically influence, we can decide on the outcomes that…

• our organization wants (is willing) to be accountable for (e.g. set targets, monitor, measure)

• our organization along with our partner organizations want to be collectively accountable for

• TOC helps to think through and scope the evaluation… defining the things we want to be responsible for monitoring and measuring

THEORY OF CHANGEAND THE PROJECT CYCLE

1. Context analysis… first step in TOC2. Design… TOC thinking about possible options to drive change3. Implementation… implementers need to develop a more detailed TOC4. Annual review… TOC should be reviewed annually, revised as needed5. Evaluation… TOC identifies key hypothesis to test through evaluation

Source: Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in international development. Review Report. Isabel Vogel, April 2012

THEORY OF CHANGE PITFALLS

• They can be challenging and time consuming to prepare

• Requires realistic and transparent strategic thinking… challenge assumptions, explore and understand power relations

• They can be messy and confusing • They can be difficult to interpret – especially

if language is too technical and concepts are too abstract

THEORY OF CHANGETHINKING‘The main purpose of the process and the diagram is not to map reality, but to surface perspectives on reality and worldviews, so that these can be explored, debated and enriched. Theory of change is about generating better assumptions, better hypotheses of change to strengthen our work, learn from what happens and improve it.’

Alfredo Ortiz, Researcher Institute of Development Studies

THEORY OF CHANGE

SIMPLE VISUAL

Source: United Nations Children’s Fund, Supplementary Programme Note on the Theory of Change, Peer Review Group meeting, 11 March 2014, UNICEF, New York, 2014, p. 4.

Source: Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in International development. Review Report. Isabel Vogel, April 2012

THEORY OF CHANGE

DETAIL VISUAL

THEORY OF CHANGESAMPLES

• Ecosystems Services for Poverty Alleviation Theory of Change

Source: Guidance for M&E of climate change interventions. Guidance note 3: Theory of Change approach to climate change adaptation programming. Feb. 2014

• The Hunger Project Africa Program Theory of Change

Source: Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in international development. Review Report. Isabel Vogel, April 2012

Theory of change for multi-country evaluation on increasing access and equity in early childhood education

Source: UNICEF Regional Office for Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (2014) Terms of Reference for Multi-country evaluation on increasing access and equity in early childhood education: UNICEF’s contribution to achieving results in six CEE-CIS countries, 2005–2012, p. 7.

ELSR - early learning and school readiness

THEORY OF CHANGE

LOGIC MODEL

Outcomes framework (logic model) for ecosystem-based adaptation project in the PhilippinesSource: Constructing Theories of Change for Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Projects | A Guidance Document. 2013

DISCUSSION