Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice...
-
date post
19-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
0
Transcript of Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice...
![Page 1: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Theories of Voting
![Page 2: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Several “Models”
• Socialization / Party Identification
• Rational Choice
• Economic voting
![Page 3: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Several models
• Not mutually exclusive
• Some explain some thing / voters better than others
![Page 4: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Political Socialization
• Vote choice in candidate races (pre) determined by Party Identification
• Where does PID come from?– early childhood socialization– social groups– stable, even strengthens over time
![Page 5: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Political Socialization
Time --->
Childhood
Education
Occupation
Forces that structure PID
Campaign
eventsEthnicity vote choice
![Page 6: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Political Socialization ‘08
Dem
(39%)
89% 10% 1%
Repub.
(32%)
9% 90% 1%
Ind
(29%)
52% 44% 1%
Obama McCain Other
![Page 7: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Political Socialization ‘04
Dem
(37%)
89% 11% 0%
Repub.
(37%)
6% 93% 0%
Ind
(26%)
49% 48% 1%
Kerry Bush Nader
![Page 8: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Political Socialization ‘00
Dem
(39%)
86% 11% 2%
Repub.
(35%)
11% 91% 1%
Ind
(27%)
45% 47% 7%
Gore Bush Nader
![Page 9: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Political Socialization
• Balance of partisans in electorate changes very slowly, since individual’s PID very stable
• For partisans: – PID -> issues positions as much as issues
-> PID
![Page 10: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Political Socialization
• Partisans most attentive, most interested
• Campaign events, information, ads, etc. don’t move their votes
• They know who to vote for prior to knowing candidates
![Page 11: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Political Socialization
• Problems with theory– In US, 1/3 of voters are independent
• Many of these behave as partisans
– Mobilization• With everyone, much of the election depends
on out moblilzing the other side– 2008: fewer GOP voters came out
![Page 12: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Political Socialization
• Problems with theory– Not much room for persuastion, converting
voters from one side to other
– No deliberation
![Page 13: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Rational Choice
• Voters have preferences for issues / parties
• Voters evaluate choices in terms of candidate/party closest to voter’s preference
![Page 14: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Rational Choice
• Voters select option closest in “issue space”
Candidate 1 Candidate 2
Left Right
Voter chooses candidate 2
![Page 15: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Rational Choice
• Parties in a “market”– Adopt positions to appeal to the median
voter– If party strays to far from median (center),
they get hammered at the polls
![Page 16: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Rational Choice
• Parties in a “market”– What is distribution of voter preferences?
• Normal (bell-shaped)?
• Bi-modal?
![Page 17: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Rational choice
If most voters in center
Dem GOP
Left Right
![Page 18: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Rational Choice
Left Right
Dem Gop
If few voters in center
![Page 19: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Rational Choice
• For “pure” choice model to work– Voters start each election “fresh”
• Parties also?
– Re-evaluate issue positions– This assumes
• voters know candidate positions, voters know their own positions, voters think election causes policy to change
![Page 20: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Rational Choice
• Rational ignorance– In reality, voters have history with parties
• they know, roughly, where each party is in issue space
– Not worth effort to become fully informed– Party labels act as short cuts
![Page 21: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Rational Choice
• Problems with theory:– assumes far too much of voter
– ignores fact that surveys show voters ill-informed about issues & candidate positions
![Page 22: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Rational choice
• Problems with theory– If so many voters in center, why are parties
polarized• Could be that parties “respond” to major donors, not
mass electorate– is this rational?
• Could be that nominations are controlled by ideological extremists
• Could be that parties are only polarized in congress– Districting
![Page 23: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Rational Choice
• Does it work to explain how people decide on ballot measures?
![Page 24: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Economic voting
• A “soft” form of issue voting / rational choice
• Some voters punish incumbents when times are bad– reward when times are good
![Page 25: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Economic Voting
• Prospective– Voters plan ahead, pick candidate best for
them
Retrospective
Voters look backward
![Page 26: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Economic Voting
• Self-interested– Vote based on their personal financial
situation
• Retrospective– Vote based on perceptions of the macro-
economy
![Page 27: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Economic voting
• Parties may also purse economic policies that appeal to certain types of voters– Dems give priority to jobs, at expense of
inflation– GOP give priority to fighting inflation, at
expense of jobs
![Page 28: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Economic voting
• Assumes that Dem voters less hostille to inflation, more worried about jobs
• This is a Philips Curve logic– Assumes a tradeoff between
unemployment and inflation
![Page 29: Theories of Voting. Several “Models” Socialization / Party Identification Rational Choice Economic voting.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d3f5503460f94a18749/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Economic Voting
• What links between class, party, and voting?– What difference in parties economic
policies• Tax cuts for who?
• See Bartels, Unequal Democracy