From The Cold War to The War on From The Cold War to The War on TerrorTerror

Problems for Peace markers after a WarProblems for Peace markers after a War Vienna Congress & New European OrderVienna Congress & New European Order Sequence of events after WW-I & WW-II Sequence of events after WW-I & WW-II Sufferings & expectations from Major Wars Sufferings & expectations from Major Wars Less Lofty ambitions of Peace markers of; 1815, Less Lofty ambitions of Peace markers of; 1815,

1919 & 1945 1919 & 1945 Protections of states interests & securing of Protections of states interests & securing of

International System from further disturbances & International System from further disturbances & destructiondestruction

End of cold War – last War of 20th Century; left End of cold War – last War of 20th Century; left the World with; the World with; promisespromises & & Potential of risk Potential of risk

Period between end of Cold War & 9/11 – more Period between end of Cold War & 9/11 – more interregnum with two thoughtsinterregnum with two thoughts:-:- An ongoing struggle between two competing An ongoing struggle between two competing

secular ideologies secular ideologies Shaped by an emerging clash between two Shaped by an emerging clash between two

conceptions of civilization: conceptions of civilization: The modern WestThe modern West The The Radical Islam Radical Islam

The End of Cold WarThe End of Cold War

Effects of Cold WarEffects of Cold War: : divisions of world, threats & divisions of world, threats & destructions of Human being; death of 25 million destructions of Human being; death of 25 million people in 3people in 3rdrd World through proxy wars World through proxy wars

Desire Desire Degree of Stability Degree of Stability due to bipolar order of due to bipolar order of 1947; appreciations by Realists like; Kenneth waltz for 1947; appreciations by Realists like; Kenneth waltz for two balancing Powers two balancing Powers

Two features of Cold War;Two features of Cold War; bipolar structure bipolar structure & & highly divided characterhighly divided character

Cold war as a Cold war as a managed Conflict managed Conflict with Specified with Specified limits of each block – a set of informal rules – limits of each block – a set of informal rules – accepted by both powers accepted by both powers

Philosophy of cold War remaining ColdPhilosophy of cold War remaining Cold; ; agreement on prevention of nuclear war & agreement on prevention of nuclear war & deterrence deterrence

Caution of Super Powers not to destroy each other Caution of Super Powers not to destroy each other except 1962 – Cuban Missile Crisisexcept 1962 – Cuban Missile Crisis

Shock Waves of 1989 – dramatic changes in the Shock Waves of 1989 – dramatic changes in the World & Character of Mikhail Gorbachev–World & Character of Mikhail Gorbachev–Farsighted leader or a traitorFarsighted leader or a traitor

Collapse of Communism & fall of Berlin Wall Collapse of Communism & fall of Berlin Wall

Reagan's tough Policies towards Russia – Reagan's tough Policies towards Russia – “an Evil Empire” “an Evil Empire”

Soviet Economic deterioration or East Soviet Economic deterioration or East European debt to West Europe European debt to West Europe

End of Cold War divided IR scholars in to End of Cold War divided IR scholars in to Realists & Constructivists Realists & Constructivists

Mapping the Post – Cold War EraMapping the Post – Cold War Era

Change in the structure of international system & Change in the structure of international system & divisions within the wider academic community divisions within the wider academic community

Western scholars like Francis Fukuyama viewed Western scholars like Francis Fukuyama viewed Collapse of Communism as final end of one Collapse of Communism as final end of one particular Phaseparticular Phase

Defining new tasks far; UNO, NATO & EU Defining new tasks far; UNO, NATO & EU Survival of West without a Threat ? Survival of West without a Threat ?

Logic for High Military spending once Logic for High Military spending once World is more safer World is more safer

Globalization : A New International Globalization : A New International OrderOrder

Sharp divisions between opposing Socio- Sharp divisions between opposing Socio- economics system during Cold Wareconomics system during Cold War

Post Cold War: states were compelled to play by Post Cold War: states were compelled to play by a single set of rules within an increasing a single set of rules within an increasing competitive world economy – the Globalizationcompetitive world economy – the Globalization

Different Perceptions of globalizations by Different Perceptions of globalizations by Theorist Theorist

Globalization as a system; quite frequently Globalization as a system; quite frequently undermining borders & states – against undermining borders & states – against Westphalia Treaty (Concept of Nations states) Westphalia Treaty (Concept of Nations states)

Other Schools of thought questioned Other Schools of thought questioned Globalizations – Globalizations – CapitalismCapitalism after all have been a after all have been a global system having features of interdependenceglobal system having features of interdependence

Debate about;Debate about; impact of Globalization on global impact of Globalization on global inequality, climate Change & more general inequality, climate Change & more general distribution of power in IR distribution of power in IR

Globalization with increasing regularity was a Globalization with increasing regularity was a simple fact of Economic life – (Scholars: David simple fact of Economic life – (Scholars: David Held & Martin Wolf)Held & Martin Wolf)

No escaping of globalization – except using soft No escaping of globalization – except using soft words; to “words; to “Compete not RetreatCompete not Retreat” (Clinton) ” (Clinton)

Very little choice in the world of global Very little choice in the world of global competition: Europe either had to reform or competition: Europe either had to reform or decline decline

Globalization could not change the essence Globalization could not change the essence of how Politics was conducted between of how Politics was conducted between States Hans – J. MorgenthauStates Hans – J. Morgenthau

Markets are fast becoming more important Markets are fast becoming more important than States – a new trend emerged because than States – a new trend emerged because of globalization-Strangeof globalization-Strange

Effect of Globalization onEffect of Globalization on: North America, : North America, Europe & East Asia – increased Economic Europe & East Asia – increased Economic interdependence & Wealth creation interdependence & Wealth creation

US Primacy: From Super Power to US Primacy: From Super Power to Hyper Power Hyper Power

Sequel to the end of Cold War:Sequel to the end of Cold War: World economy World economy came under same set of highly competitive rule & came under same set of highly competitive rule & resurgence of USA without a rivalresurgence of USA without a rival

Concept of multiple Polarity – faded Concept of multiple Polarity – faded A short recession in the economies of Japan, A short recession in the economies of Japan,

Europe & YugoslaviaEurope & Yugoslavia US transformation from mere super power to US transformation from mere super power to

hyper power : French FM, Hubert Vedrine -1998 hyper power : French FM, Hubert Vedrine -1998

Questions on the conjuncture (US status); how Questions on the conjuncture (US status); how long US would stay as a hyper or super power ?long US would stay as a hyper or super power ?

Varying thoughts: Emergence of other Powers to Varying thoughts: Emergence of other Powers to balance US; balance US;

US hegemony would stay in 21US hegemony would stay in 21stst Century Century Spread of democracy would ensure safety in Spread of democracy would ensure safety in

international system Specially economy -Liberal’s international system Specially economy -Liberal’s view view

Use of Power by US in wise way – USA is Use of Power by US in wise way – USA is not threat to world, but if it would not lead – not threat to world, but if it would not lead – world would be threatenedworld would be threatened

American victory after Cold War & dangers American victory after Cold War & dangers to world like: to world like: Rogue states Rogue states (Iran, Iraq, NK Libya & (Iran, Iraq, NK Libya &

Cuba)Cuba)Threat of Nuclear Proliferation Threat of Nuclear Proliferation Threat of Threat of Islamic TerrorismIslamic Terrorism

Incidents like: 9/11, WTC 1993, US embassies Incidents like: 9/11, WTC 1993, US embassies bombing in Kenya & Tanzaniabombing in Kenya & Tanzania

1990s – No US Intention to involve in world into 1990s – No US Intention to involve in world into affairs specially after Somalian Debacle - 1993affairs specially after Somalian Debacle - 1993

US has been the only Hegemon power after 1990 US has been the only Hegemon power after 1990 but do not Know, how to use its Powerbut do not Know, how to use its Power

US after Cold War: “A Super power without US after Cold War: “A Super power without Mission” Mission”

Europe in World SystemEurope in World System

For USFor US; How to develop a Coherent global ; How to develop a Coherent global policy in a world with no threat to its policy in a world with no threat to its interests interests

For EuropeFor Europe; How to manage the enlarged ; How to manage the enlarged space created as a result of 1989 events space created as a result of 1989 events

US brought end to Cold war but European US brought end to Cold war but European remained the actual / true beneficiary remained the actual / true beneficiary

Europe: a divided continent - united again Europe: a divided continent - united again & its people & states got & its people & states got Right of Self Right of Self Determination Determination

Challenges for EuropeanChallenges for European; Collapse of ; Collapse of Communism, bloodshed in former Communism, bloodshed in former Yugoslavia, life under Competitive Yugoslavia, life under Competitive Capitalism & Capitalism & Transition from one order to Transition from one order to anotheranother

Perception of European about future of Perception of European about future of EuropeEurope

Own specific security arrangements – Own specific security arrangements – French; remained tied to US for its security French; remained tied to US for its security – others specially Central Europe– others specially Central Europe

No agreements/ consensus by European No agreements/ consensus by European Federalists for deeper union to balance the Federalists for deeper union to balance the

Power houses of US & JapanPower houses of US & Japan Others; Fears this as Eurosceptic card Others; Fears this as Eurosceptic card

European Divisions over Economics:European Divisions over Economics: DeregistersDeregisters;; favored greater state involvement in favored greater state involvement in

management of a specially European Social modelmanagement of a specially European Social model

Free MarketersFree Marketers: led by UK –oppose the Protected : led by UK –oppose the Protected systemsystem

Challenge for European Policy markers; Challenge for European Policy markers; how how bring East back into Westbring East back into West

Enlargement of European Union to 27 members Enlargement of European Union to 27 members & NATO 26 by 2007& NATO 26 by 2007

Rapid enlargement of Europe & reluctance of EU Rapid enlargement of Europe & reluctance of EU interaction interaction

NATO – not a serious military organization NATO – not a serious military organization with integrated Command structurewith integrated Command structure

Realist believers in the institutional role of Realist believers in the institutional role of NATO & EU as essentialNATO & EU as essential

Various views of European future:Various views of European future: As a As a civilian powercivilian power A hard mil powerA hard mil power An economic power An economic power

Birth of European Security & Defence Policy – Birth of European Security & Defence Policy – 1998 & European Security Strategy (ESS) – 20031998 & European Security Strategy (ESS) – 2003

Global reach of European security with open bordersGlobal reach of European security with open borders The Concept : A well The Concept : A well functioning international functioning international

instituteinstitute & a system of rules & a system of rules Insistence on a strong Insistence on a strong Trans-Atlantic Trans-Atlantic

Relationship Relationship remained essential to order the remained essential to order the world world

ESS failed to address future of Europe & Europe ESS failed to address future of Europe & Europe remained as such after WW-IIremained as such after WW-II

Assurance for future of Europe: EU capacity in Assurance for future of Europe: EU capacity in dealing with Post Cold war events; single dealing with Post Cold war events; single currency & new membership currency & new membership

New PerceptionNew Perception: : 2121stst Century is of Europe Century is of Europe or or Europe as more divided on basic issues, culture & Europe as more divided on basic issues, culture & economy/ politicseconomy/ politics

Order issues/ ConfrontingOrder issues/ Confronting: Turkish memberships; : Turkish memberships; integration of 13 million Muslim citizens; Rising integration of 13 million Muslim citizens; Rising economic competitions with Chinaeconomic competitions with China

Question; by end of 21Question; by end of 21stst Century; Century; From where it is coming from ?From where it is coming from ? No blue Print – where it is going ? No blue Print – where it is going ?

Russia from Yeltsin to PutinRussia from Yeltsin to Putin Defining nature of relationship of Europe with Defining nature of relationship of Europe with

Post Communist Russia : facing transition from Post Communist Russia : facing transition from super power status – Marxism to become super power status – Marxism to become democratic, liberal & market orienteddemocratic, liberal & market oriented

Difficulty for Russia – from a super power to a Difficulty for Russia – from a super power to a declining power economically & ideologically in declining power economically & ideologically in 1990s 1990s

Adopting of Western style Privatization & Adopting of Western style Privatization & experiencing of 1930s like depression; experiencing of 1930s like depression; Plummeting industrial production; falling Plummeting industrial production; falling living standards etcliving standards etc

Contradictory Policies of President YeltsinContradictory Policies of President Yeltsin; ; Russians perceived his Policies to be selling Russians perceived his Policies to be selling of Russia to West against its national of Russia to West against its national interest interest

Vladimir Putin vision of RussiaVladimir Putin vision of Russia: Promotion of : Promotion of nationalism & authoritarianism; clarity in Russian nationalism & authoritarianism; clarity in Russian & Western interests; improving Russian economy & Western interests; improving Russian economy & exploiting Russian natural resources & exploiting Russian natural resources

Strategic partnership between Russia & WestStrategic partnership between Russia & West

Russia should not look like Russia should not look like sick man of Europesick man of Europe, , yet its economy mainly remained depended on yet its economy mainly remained depended on West West

No ideological difference No ideological difference b/w Western & b/w Western & Eastern Europe – former Soviet States Eastern Europe – former Soviet States joined NATO & EUjoined NATO & EU

Russia Russia surrounded by Pro-western surrounded by Pro-western Ukraine, Ukraine, three Baltic states & Georgia in Caucasus & three Baltic states & Georgia in Caucasus & faced separation in Chechnya & others faced separation in Chechnya & others

US & Western vision of RussiaUS & Western vision of Russia; Heading for ; Heading for an empire, human rights violator & an an empire, human rights violator & an authoritarian power authoritarian power

East Asia Primed for RivalryEast Asia Primed for Rivalry

Past history of East AsiaPast history of East Asia;; Devastative wars like, China, Korea & Devastative wars like, China, Korea &

VietnamVietnam Revolutionary insurgencies in; Philippine, Revolutionary insurgencies in; Philippine,

Malaysia & Indonesia Malaysia & Indonesia Revolutionary extremism specially in Revolutionary extremism specially in

Cambodia Cambodia No Parallels between European new liberal No Parallels between European new liberal

security communities & East Asian / Asian security communities & East Asian / Asian Environment mainly because of NATO & EU Environment mainly because of NATO & EU formation formation

Germany reconciled with rest of Europe, Japan Germany reconciled with rest of Europe, Japan did not for Asiadid not for Asia

Post Cold War environment:Post Cold War environment: European continent transformed dramaticallyEuropean continent transformed dramatically East Asia did not mainly because of; East Asia did not mainly because of;

Communists in China, NK & Vietnam; Communists in China, NK & Vietnam; territorial disputes b/w Japan – China –Russia territorial disputes b/w Japan – China –Russia – Taiwan– Taiwan

East Asia still ripe for rivalriesEast Asia still ripe for rivalries (Aaron (Aaron Friedberg) – “Friedberg) – “Europe’s Past – East Asia’s Europe’s Past – East Asia’s FutureFuture” ”

Contributory Factors in the Development of Contributory Factors in the Development of East AsiaEast Asia

11stst : Great Economic success of East Asia because : Great Economic success of East Asia because ofof; cheap labour; ; cheap labour; plentiful capitalplentiful capital; culture values; ; culture values; opening of US markets for East Asiansopening of US markets for East Asians; sense of ; sense of security security

East Asia as 3East Asia as 3rdrd powerhouse of global economy powerhouse of global economy with 25% of World GDP with 25% of World GDP

22ndnd : Promotion of regionalism like ASEAN : Promotion of regionalism like ASEAN and mutual trade within the East Asia and mutual trade within the East Asia

33rd:rd: Economic Development by Japan; meeting Economic Development by Japan; meeting new challenges at global level through economic new challenges at global level through economic progressprogress

Nuclear Non-proliferation and non militarizationNuclear Non-proliferation and non militarization

Leaving beyond historical baggage, East Leaving beyond historical baggage, East Asians development regional trade & Asians development regional trade & investment mainly because of economic investment mainly because of economic pressure & material self interestpressure & material self interest

Development of regionalism after 1990s Development of regionalism after 1990s Japan's peaceful development without any Japan's peaceful development without any

aggressive designs for the regional / aggressive designs for the regional / external players external players

China – Japan tradeChina – Japan trade:: 5000 Japanese companies & 5000 Japanese companies & 55% investment by Taiwan's investors 55% investment by Taiwan's investors

Rising China – a fear for West & US – Realists Rising China – a fear for West & US – Realists view view

Chinese assurance to its neighbors; a peaceful Chinese assurance to its neighbors; a peaceful rise – economic interdependence –Japan – China rise – economic interdependence –Japan – China understanding on economic groundsunderstanding on economic grounds

US presence in East Asia & Chinese Perception- US presence in East Asia & Chinese Perception- an ideological difference an ideological difference

Western PerceptionWestern Perception; China as a economic Power ; China as a economic Power (Capitalist) may prove more dangerous for world (Capitalist) may prove more dangerous for world & West rather as a Communist Power& West rather as a Communist Power

Haves & Have-notsHaves & Have-nots

Haves & Have-not; Haves & Have-not; A less debated conceptA less debated concept Post WW-II super Powers & Status of 3Post WW-II super Powers & Status of 3rdrd world world

countriescountries Keeping 3Keeping 3rdrd World countries at distance but as ally World countries at distance but as ally

to fight proxy wars & piling up of weapons to fight proxy wars & piling up of weapons against opposing camps; Afghanistan, Cuba, against opposing camps; Afghanistan, Cuba, Anglo, Vietnam etc Anglo, Vietnam etc

End of the Cold war brought settlement & End of the Cold war brought settlement & abandoning of front line status of 3abandoning of front line status of 3rdrd world world countries by super power backerscountries by super power backers

Intellectual crises for the utility of 3Intellectual crises for the utility of 3rd rd world world without formal rivals like US & USSR without formal rivals like US & USSR

Globalization further faded the idea of 3Globalization further faded the idea of 3rdrd world as world as many poor countries developed after end of the many poor countries developed after end of the Cold War Cold War

Concept of 3Concept of 3rdrd world to some analysts; not to be world to some analysts; not to be abandoned; as there exists massive poverty in the abandoned; as there exists massive poverty in the world world

Debate on concept of 3Debate on concept of 3rdrd world, Globalization & world, Globalization & Poverty Poverty No Consensus on eradication of 3No Consensus on eradication of 3rdrd World Concept World Concept Opponents of Globalization demanded either Opponents of Globalization demanded either

reduction of Globalization or to regulate itreduction of Globalization or to regulate it Apprehension of less developed countries – Not Apprehension of less developed countries – Not

getting drawn into the process but remaining outside getting drawn into the process but remaining outside the process the process

Economic growth in China & India; a case for Economic growth in China & India; a case for globalization globalization

30 million Chinese taken out of poverty trap – 30 million Chinese taken out of poverty trap – Indian case is differentIndian case is different

A concept of competing economy developed by A concept of competing economy developed by India & China India & China

In Africa - Sub-Sahara; globalization has not In Africa - Sub-Sahara; globalization has not produced results produced results

3 billion people of the world (half of world 3 billion people of the world (half of world population) still live on less than 2 US dollars a population) still live on less than 2 US dollars a day in the globalized World day in the globalized World

GDP of 48 Poorest Countries GDP of 48 Poorest Countries of World is less than of World is less than wealth of wealth of World's three richest people World's three richest people

Out of 10.5 m children died in 2006, 98% were Out of 10.5 m children died in 2006, 98% were from less developed countriesfrom less developed countries

Growing gap between less developed & Growing gap between less developed & developed world & shifting/ migration of poor to developed world & shifting/ migration of poor to earn their bredearn their bred

Poverty & inequality Poverty & inequality together bred insecurity- together bred insecurity- insecurity foster instabilities which leads to:insecurity foster instabilities which leads to: Any action by powerful countriesAny action by powerful countries Displacement- 25 m people displaced by 2006 Displacement- 25 m people displaced by 2006 Effects of closure of borders – causing extreme Effects of closure of borders – causing extreme

difficulties for poordifficulties for poor

Injustice would bread discontent & Political Injustice would bread discontent & Political violence violence

““HavesHaves”- appear to have too much ”- appear to have too much & “ & “ Have-nots”Have-nots”- so little - so little – would create ready – would create ready markets for markets for violence world over violence world over

The War on Terror: From 9/11 to The War on Terror: From 9/11 to IraqIraq

End of Cold War as a turning Point of 20End of Cold War as a turning Point of 20thth century century history & 9/11 was a realization that international history & 9/11 was a realization that international order emerged as result was not acceptable to order emerged as result was not acceptable to most of the worldmost of the world

Bin Laden’s motivation for 9/11 to destroy Bin Laden’s motivation for 9/11 to destroy globalization & US supremacyglobalization & US supremacy

Bin Laden’s ideology to pull back the world in the Bin Laden’s ideology to pull back the world in the past –his threat to use WMD – a modern threat past –his threat to use WMD – a modern threat

Western Concept / PerceptionWestern Concept / Perception; A new non state ; A new non state threat & character of Islamic Terrorismthreat & character of Islamic Terrorism

In reality for the US theIn reality for the US the Threat Was; Threat Was; More existential than serious More existential than serious More functionally useful for its quest for global More functionally useful for its quest for global

Pre- eminence than actually genuinePre- eminence than actually genuine Unfolding of global war on terror & clarity in US Unfolding of global war on terror & clarity in US

motives (attack Iraq & plan to engage; NK, Iran, motives (attack Iraq & plan to engage; NK, Iran, etc)etc)

Transformation from original target of being Transformation from original target of being victim to the source of imperialism in the world victim to the source of imperialism in the world

9/11 enabled US to act in an assertive manner in 9/11 enabled US to act in an assertive manner in the world affairs outside US – a revolution to US the world affairs outside US – a revolution to US foreign policyforeign policy

US Policy in ME – support to autocratic rule for US Policy in ME – support to autocratic rule for cheap Oil & revision in Policy after invasion of cheap Oil & revision in Policy after invasion of IraqIraq

Logic for Iraqi Invasion –Iraq was neither Logic for Iraqi Invasion –Iraq was neither involved in 9/11 nor possessed WMDinvolved in 9/11 nor possessed WMD

US perceptions of attack on Iraq: Oil, Israel, US perceptions of attack on Iraq: Oil, Israel, WMD, ideology expansion – change of regime – WMD, ideology expansion – change of regime – failed owing to poor intelligence failed owing to poor intelligence

GWOT; as War of Choice, irrespective of GWOT; as War of Choice, irrespective of calculation; was a strategic blunder; neither calculation; was a strategic blunder; neither democracy nor reforms in the regiondemocracy nor reforms in the region could be could be broughtbrought

US invasion disturbed ME & integrated Iran with US invasion disturbed ME & integrated Iran with GCC & other ME states & caused Power Vacuum GCC & other ME states & caused Power Vacuum in Iraqin Iraq

Spread of radical Islamism throughout in the Spread of radical Islamism throughout in the World like; bombing in London & Madrid World like; bombing in London & Madrid

Defining the Conflict: Defining the Conflict: Is it a, “Clash of Is it a, “Clash of Civilizations”- Huntington theory or Conflict Civilizations”- Huntington theory or Conflict between supports of democracy/ Pluralism between supports of democracy/ Pluralism against Those Promoting intolerance or against Those Promoting intolerance or supported supported TheocracyTheocracy

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