Theoretical and methodological issues in the study of the outcomes of social movements
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Theoretical and methodological issues in the
study of the outcomes of social movements Marco Giugni
University of Geneva
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Structure of presentation
Definitional issues State of research Theoretical challenges Methodological challenges Suggestions for further research Work in progress
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A typology of movement outcomes
Internal External
Political Power relations withina movement or SMO
Substantial (policy),procedural, structural
Cultural Value change within amovement or SMO
Public opinion andattitudes
Biographical Life-course patterns ofmovement participants
Aggregate-level life-course patterns
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What do we know about political outcomes?
First wave• Disruption• Organization
Second wave• Contextual factors• Mechanisms
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What do we know about cultural outcomes?
Not much (at least me…)
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What do we know about biographical outcomes (New-Left activists)?
Political life• Continued to espouse leftist political attitudes• Continued to define themselves as liberal or radical• Remained active in contemporary movements or other forms of
political activity
Personal life• Concentrated in teaching or other helping professions• Lower incomes• More likely to have divorced, married later, or remained single• More likely to have experienced an episodic or nontraditional work
history
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The problem of identifying social movement outcomes (Tilly)
MOVEMENT
CLAIMS
A C
BEFFECTS OF EFFECTS OF
MOVEMENT OUTSIDE
ACTIONS EVENTS AND D
ACTIONS
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A six-step approach to social movement outcomes (Tilly)
• To formulate clear theories of the causal process by which social movements produce their effects
• To limit the investigation to the effects made plausible by those theories
• To work upstream by identifying instances of the effects, then seeing whether the hypothesized causal chain was actually operating
• To work downstream by identifying instances of the causal chain in operation, then seeing whether and how its hypothesized effects occurred
• To work midstream by examining whether the internal links of the causal chain operated as the theory requires
• To rule out, to the extent possible, competing explanations of the effects
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Methodological problems
Causal attribution Time reference and effect stability Goal adaptation Interrelated effects Unintended and perverse effects
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Additional problems for the study of biographical outcomes
Timing and cause-effect nexus• Before/after data• Focus on specific cycle of contention• Time span separating activism from its consequences• Repeated mesures
Sampling and generalization• Sample representativeness• Control group• Number of subjects• Geographical area
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Some suggestions for further research
Conditional effects Stages of the policy process Processes and mechanisms Comparative perspective Cultural effects Unintended consequences
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Work in progress
Policy impact of protest on two issues• Asylum• Unemployment
Differential effect of protest• Across issues• Across stages of policy process
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Variables
Dependent variables• Parliamentary interventions (first stage)• Acceptance of interventions (second stage)
Independent variables• Protest (political claims)• Alliances• Public opinion• Real-world indicators (grievances)
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Data and methods
Data• Claim-making (MERCI and UNEMPOL projects)• Issue attention (comparative agenda project)• Public opinion polls• Statistical data
Methods• Time-series analysis• Event history analysis
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Tentative findings: asylum
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Tentative findings: unemployment