The Youth Bulge in Arab Countries

Alisa Tukkimaki

Godwin Dossou

Crystal Kwan

Some Definitions

Aging Population:

• A population with the percentage of ages 1-14 under 30% and ages 75 and above over 6% is considered an "aging population"

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid#Young_and_ageing_populations

Young Population:

A population with the percentage of ages 1–14 over 30% and ages 75 and above under 6% is considered a "young population``

The Youth Bulge Theory

• `…an excess in especially young adult male population predictably leads to social unrest, war and terrorism as the "third and fourth sons" that find no prestigious positions in their existing societies rationalize their impetus to compete by religion or political ideology.``

• A German sociologist and economist named Gunnar Heinsohn developed this theory

• ``Heinsohn claims that most historical periods of social unrest lacking external triggers (such as rapid climatic changes or other catastrophic changes of the environment) and most genocides can be readily explained as a result of a built up youth bulge, including European colonialism, 20th century Facism, and ongoing conflicts such as that in Darfur, The Palestinian uprisings in 1987-1993 and 2000 to present, and terrorism.``

• Proponents of the theory: U.S. Political Scientist Jack Goldstein (the new population bomb), U.S. Political Scientist Gary Fuller

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid#Youth_bulge

Changes in Global Demography

•developing countries have the highest birthrates

•As stated by UN Secretary-General in his Millennium Report, “More than 1 billion people are between the ages of 15 and 24. Nearly 40 % of the world’s population is below the age of 20.Most of the resulting youth bulge, nearly 98%, will occur in the developing world”

Source: http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/MDG%20Report%202010%20En%20r15%20-low%20res%2020100615%20-.pdf

•Population aging at unprecedented rates in developed countries: ``In 2050, approximately 30 percent of Americans, Canadians, Chinese,

and Europeans will be over 60, as will more than 40 percent of Japanese and South Koreans.``

Source: Goldstone, J. (2010). The new population bomb: the four megatrends that will change the world. Foreign Affairs, 89(1): 31-43.

•The concentration of the global youth population in developing countries:

Arab Countries: “Youthful Societies”

``It is envisaged that thisincreased population in the young age of 15-24 in the overall

population resulted in the most rapidgrowth in the number of young people in the region’s history.``

Source: http://www.escwa.un.org/divisions/div_editor/Download.asp?table_name=divisions_news&field_name=ID&FileID=682

•2005: totaled 65,680 million •2015: projected to increase to 71,704 million •2025: and then to 79,452 million

Youth Population

The Big Question: So What?

How does the increasing high concentration of the global youth in Arab countries

influence international social policy?

A Left Perspective: A look at PakistanA Left Perspective: A look at Pakistan

“While Pakistan’s bloated youth cohort and a noticeable desire among young men to attain education and find

respectable livelihoods could act as an agent for positive change in ideal circumstances, a proactive and multi-faceted

policy approach is required to generate desirable outcomes.” (Brookings Institute)

A Left Perspective: A look at Pakistan

Factors within Pakistan society that increase potential for youth radicalization:

•poor education system

•highly stratified socio-economic lines

•disparate economic opportunities across segments of society

•presence of an extremist infrastructure

•impeccable organizational discipline

•widespread social networks of Pakistan’s Islamic political and militant outfits

•A failure of the moderate forces to deliver credible results

•myopic U.S. policies further enhance Islamist influence

Source:http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2008/10_pakistan_yusuf.aspx

A Left Perspective: A look at PakistanA Left Perspective: A look at PakistanA Left Perspective: A look at Pakistan

A Left Perspective: A look at Pakistan

“Given Pakistan’s strategic importance and its potential to disrupt South Asian peace, the international community

has a high stake in ensuring a positive turnaround.” (Brookings Institute)

A Left Perspective: A look at Pakistan

U.S. policy intervention for Pakistan should include:•Focusing on Pakistan’s educational system:

•“Enhancing the quality of Pakistan’s public education rather than retaining a disproportionate focus on the madrassah system.”

•“Intervening in terms of the educational content, with modest agenda of simply returning the

textbook contents to the pre-Islamization period.” •“Making socio-economic aid conditional upon Pakistan’s ability to spread benefits to the masses instead of tying it solely to terrorism.”

•“Revising U.S. visa and immigration policies for young Pakistanis in order to provide them with a constructive outlet, perhaps through a formal protocol that allows disproportional access to young Pakistani citizens belonging to lower socio-economic classes.”

•“Consciously attempting to expose young Pakistanis to U.S. culture by reopening information and cultural centers throughout Pakistan”

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

“The age structure of the Arab population is changing, thus ensuring the emergence of what has been termed the ‘Youth Bulge’…It is envisaged that this increased population in the young age of 15-24 in the overall population resulted in the most rapid growth in the number of young people in the region’s history…Managing this increase… will be an enormous challenge for Arab governments, and the economic, social and political consequences of failing to do so could be

serious.” (ESWCA, 2008)

The youth bulge is a problem in this region, having negative political and social implications

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

The youth bulge is a “demographic gift,” the large number of youth is seen as an asset, for political and social opportunities

Two Opposing Views

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

Policy Recommendations:

A Perspective from the Centre:

The Economic and Social Commission of Western Asia

(ESCWA, division of the UN)

• Integrate youth in development programs

Example: World Programme of Action on Youth (WPAY)

•Focus on International Migration and Development

•Knowledge and skill building in the Arab region in the area of demographic analysis

Example: “Methods of Integrating Demographic transition in Development Plans and Programmes in Arab regions”

A Right Perspective: The World Bank and IMF

“Countries with younger populations are more prone to civil unrest and less able to create or sustain democratic

institutions” – Richard Cincotta

Unemployment: its impact on local and global economies

and markets

Unemployment: its impact on local and global economies

and markets

Social Dislocation: its

relationship with conflict

Social Dislocation: its

relationship with conflict

A Right Perspective: The World Bank and IMF

The Concerns:

• Youth unemployment rate may be four times the adult rate in some countries

• Many countries have no way to employ these youth or absorb them into the labour market

• A drain on all local systems• Most youth do not have access to primary education• Raising instability within local/international labour market is

increasing the risk of political and social turmoil.

A Right Perspective: The World Bank and IMF

Source: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/MENAEXT/MOROCCOEXTN/0

Social Dislocation

• Conflict and instability greatly impact youth prospects• Youth may play a key role in the instability• Enormous impact on international relations, foreign aid,

investments, government spending and global markets.

A Right Perspective: The World Bank and IMF

Source: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/MENAEXT/MOROCCOEXTN/0,,contentMDK:22090813~pagePK:1497618~piPK:217854~theSite

Solutions!! AKA Human Capital

1. Ease the labour market entry

• Ask for a loan from the WTO (Yemen)

• Provide incentives for corporations to invest in local education/work training programs

• Trade; open your markets to international/neighbouring trade

2. Meet demand for higher skills

• Reform (privatize) education systems

• Provide more primary schools

3. Create Motivation

• Incentives = contribution

• Provide youth with information

A Right Perspective: The World Bank and IMF

Source: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/MENAEXT/MOROCCOEXTN/0,,contentMDK:22090813~pagePK:1497618~piPK:217854~theSite

Is the Youth Bulge Good or Bad for the Right?

Good• Large, economically-productive populations that

can drive economic gains• The youth manpower market• Influence technology and institutions innovation• Create potential trade optionsBad• Civil unrest: impact on trade (export/import prices)

(Yemen)• Global drain of resources• Changes in foreign policy and investors based in

the country• Broken economies (Yemen)

A Right Perspective: The World Bank and IMF

Source: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/jimenez.htm

• What are the differences and similarities between right or left initiatives?

• Based on Modernization theory and dependency theory what would be the repercussion of this policy proposal on Pakistan society taking into consideration their national sovereignty?

• Human capital development is one of the reasons behind China’s economic growth. If economic growth leads to social development, should the Arab countries look to China as a model for turning the youth bulge into opportunity?

Discussion