The World Pump Market 2013-2018 Volume I · Centrifugal Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries...

The World Pump Market 2013-2018

Volume I

20 October 2013

support: [email protected]

© European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2013

I INTRODUCTION

II GLOBAL ISSUES II 1

World Market Forecasts - This Year and Last Year II 1

Relative Pump Market Size: Industrial and Developing Countries II 3

Impact of Prices and Exchange Rates on Market Size and Growth II 5

Pump Market Summary II 7

Pump Market Size by World Region and End Use (table) II 8

Pump Market Size in General Industry and by Product Type (table) II 9

Cyclical Fluctuations in the Pump Market 2004-2018 (charts by world region) II 10-14

Relative Growth: Industrial and Developing Countries by End Use Industry II 15

World Market for Oil & Gas: Industrial and Developing Countries - chart II 16

World Market for Chemicals: Industrial and Developing Countries - chart II 17

Power Generation and the Impact of Renewable Energy - chart II 18

World Market for Municipal Water/Wastewater: Industrial and Developing Countries - chart II 19

World Market for General Industry: Industrial and Developing Countries - chart II 20

The Market for Complete Pumps & Actuators in 63 Countries II 21

Pump Market in Asia by country II 22

Pump Market in West Europe by country II 23

Pump Market in East Europe by country II 24

Pump Market in Africa & Middle East by country II 25

Pump Market in America by country II 26

Macro-Economics, GDP and Investment II 27

World GDP and Capital Investment (chart), Growth of World Trade in Manufactured Good II 28

Forecast of GDP Growth by Country, annual 2013-2018 II 29

GDP Growth by Country in West Europe (table) II 30

GDP Growth by Country in East Europe (table) II 31

GDP Growth by Country in Africa & Middle East (table) II 32

GDP Growth by Country in Asia (table) II 33

GDP Growth by Country in America (table) II 34

Contents - Volume I - Page 1

Forecasts for the Growth of Capital Investment in 63 countries II 35

Capital Investment in West Europe by country II 36

Capital Investment in East Europe by country II 37

Capital Investment in Middle East/Africa by country II 39

Capital Investment in Asia Pacific by country II 39

Capital Investment in America by country II 40

Pump Markets in the World's Largest Countries II 41

Key Issues (table) II 41

West Europe (text, chart) II 42

United States (text, chart) II 43

Russia (text, chart) II 44

China (text, chart) II 45

India (text, chart) II 46

Focus on the Pump Market in Brazil (text, chart) II 47

Brazil Pump Production, Exports, Imports and the Market (text, chart, table) II 48 - 49

Pump Export Summary (text, table) II 50

China as a Supplier II 51

Imports of Complete Pumps by 63 countries, ranked by China's share in 2012 (table) II 52

Imports of Pump Parts by 63 countries, ranked by China's share in 2012 (table) II 53

Uncertainties Surrounding the Forecasts II 54

The World Pump Market and the Top 25 Pump Companies 2008-2013 (text, table) II 57


III THE PUMP MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE

Introduction III 1

Summary of the World Pump Market by World Region and Product Type III 2

The World Market for Complete Pumps by Product Type (chart) III 3

The Market for Pump Parts III 4

Imports of Pump Parts - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 5

Complete Pumps by Product Type III 6

Centrifugal Pumps III 7

Centrifugal Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 8

Centrifugal Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 9

Centrifugal Pump Market - Further Sub-Division III 10

Reciprocating Pumps III 11

Reciprocating Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 12

Reciprocating Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 13

Reciprocating Pump Market - Further Sub-Division III 14

Rotary Pumps III 15

Rotary Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 16

Rotary Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 17

Rotary Pump Market - Further Sub-Division III 18

Domestic & Other Pumps III 19

Domestic & Other Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 20


IV THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY

Introduction IV 1

Summary of Pump Market Size by end Use Industry IV 2

The World Pump Market by End Use Industry (table) IV 3

Methods of Analysis by End Use Industry IV 4- IV 10

Composition of Demand: Engineered, Standard and Special Purpose Pumps V 11

Market Sizes for Engineered Pumps (chart) IV 12

Market Sizes for Standard Pumps (chart) IV 13

Market Sizes for Special Purpose Pumps (chart) IV 14

Oil & Gas Production & Refining IV 15

Oil, Gas, Refining by 63 Countries IV 15

Oil, Gas, Refining - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 16

Oil and Gas Production - market size (chart) IV 17

Oil and Gas Production - market change (chart) IV 18

Onshore Oil/Gas Requirements by Application (table) IV 19

Offhore Oil/Gas Requirements by Application (table) IV 20

Oil Refining - market size (chart) IV 21

Oil Refining - market change (chart) IV 22

Oil Refining - Requirements by Application (table) IV 23

Chemical Industry IV 24

Chemical Industry - World Capital Expenditure (chart wth advanced/developing countries 2001-2918)

IV 25

Chemicals - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 26-IV 27

Basic Chemicals - market size (chart) IV 28

Basic Chemicals - market change (chart) IV 29

Basic Chemicals - Requirements by Application (table) IV 30

Contents - Volume 1 - Page 4


Other Chemicals - market size (chart) IV 31

Other Chemicals - market change (chart) IV 32

Other Chemicals - Requirements by Application (table) IV 33

Power Generation IV 34

Power Generation - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 34-IV 35

Power Generation - market size (chart) IV 36

Power Generation - market change (chart) IV 37

Coal/Oil Fired Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table) IV 38

Gas Turbine/Combined Cycle Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table)

IV 39

Nuclear Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table) IV 40

Hydroelectric Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table) IV 41

Water & Wastewater Treatment IV 42

Water & Wastewater Treatment - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 44-IV 45

Water & Wastewater Treatment - market size (chart) IV 46

Water & Wastewater Treatment - market change (chart) IV 47

Water & Wastewater Treatment - Requirements by World Region (table) IV 48



General Industry IV 49

General Industry - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 50 - IV 51

Mining (chart on market size) IV 52

World Mining Capital Expenditure (text, chart) IV 52

Mining (chart on change in market size) IV 54

Mining - pump requirements by application IV 55

World Pulp & Paper Capital Expenditure (text, chart) IV 56

Pulp & Paper (charts on market size & growth) IV 57 - IV 58

Pulp & Paper - pump requirements by application IV 59

Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals (charts on market size & growth) IV 60 - IV 61

Metal Manufacturing (charts on market size & growth) IV 63 - IV 64

World Shipbuilding Trends (text, chart) IV 66

Marine (charts on market size & growth) IV 67 - IV 68

Construction Related and Other Industries IV 70

Building Services (charts on size & growth) IV 70 -71

Construction Dewatering by World Region (table) IV 72 - IV 73

Domestic & Other Pumps (charts on size & growth) IV 74 - IV 75

Other Industries (charts on size & growth) IV 76- IV 77

Construction Related and Other Industries - table IV 78


V SOME CHANGES IN TECHNOLOGY

Introduction V 1

Demand Side Technological Change V 1

Supply Side Technologicla Change V 2

Appendix - Methodology 1-3



The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 1

I INTRODUCTION

The entire report consists of two separately-bound volumes which together contain

the following sections:

Volume 1 - Overview

Covers macro-economic developments, the pump market by country, market by pump

type, market by world region and end use industry

I Introduction

II Global Issues

III The Market by Product Type

IV The Market by End Use

Volume 2 - Detailed Results by Country

Analysis by Country - market forecasts for 63 countries

Appendix on Methodology

Excel Files (available to purchasers of the full report, i.e Part I and Part II)

Free excel files cover data for the forecast period shown in the report. They are

available following completion of a form guaranteeing no-disclosure to third parties.



Extra Excel Files (available to purchasers of the full report, i.e Part I and Part II)

These are available at additional cost. The files provide data shown in the report but

also an historial and forecast time series 2001-2018. They also provide a cross-

classification of the market by end use and product type for each of the 63 countries.

The end uses covered are:

Oil

Chemicals

Power Generation

Water & Wastewater

General Industry

For each of these end uses, and for each country, the pump market is sub-divided into

the following product types:

Reciprocating - Piston/PlungerReciprocating - OtherReciprocating Pumps

Rotary - GearRotary - VaneRotary - ScrewRotary - OtherRotary Pumps

Centrifugal - Submersible MotorCentrifugal - Single stage, single entry - close coupledCentrifugal - Single stage, single entry - long coupledCentrifugal - Single stage, double suctionCentrifugal - Multistage (exc. submersible & axial/mixed flow)Centrifugal - OtherCentrifugal Pumps

Other Pumps

Total All Pumps



Coverage of the Report

The report has the following coverage:

Covers 4.8 billion of the 6.5 billion world population

63 countries with the highest GDP are separately identified

90% of world GDP, 85% of the world pump market

Pump market coverage for most end uses is around 85% of the world market but: - Mining: around 80% - Water & sewerage: around 80%

What is provided:

- Forecasts 2013-2018: complete pump market by end use and market size for Centrifugal Reciprocating & Rotary

- Historical data 2009-2012: imports of complete pumps and pump parts by product type



Status of Annual Data Provided in the Report

Although annual results are provided, the purpose is to show structural

change by end use industry, country and world region. The annual figures are

intended to capture the shape of the trade cycle, but they should not be

regarded as a reliable short-term forecast for 2013/14 in full detail. This is

because actual data ends in 2012 and is subject to revision. Figures for the

current year (2013) are estimated and, from past experience, are subject to

significant revision. Moreover it is not possible to take account of specific

short-term developments affecting each end use in the individual countries.

Major Changes Compared with Last Year’s Report

We have carried out revisions to historical market size in 2012 for all

countries, based on a revised analysis of pump production and imports. In

addition, data for mining and pulp and paper has been revised substantially.

Data for Brazil has been revised, based on recent government statistics.

Forecast growth rates have also been revised in line with forecasts for GDP

and capital investment in each of the 63 countries.

Attribution and Copyright

This report was prepared by European Industrial Forecasting Ltd (EIF). EIF

retains all copyright in the report, which may not be copied, in whole or in

part, or distributed to any organisation, person or company other than the

subscriber.

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 1

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2013

II GLOBAL ISSUES

The growth of China, which averaged over 9% per year for the last two decades, now

seems to have entered a new phase, with underling growth averaging no more than 7.5%

p.a. This may not seem to be a significant difference, but it has a major effect on certain

end use industries, notably mining and oil and gas. Countries supplying raw materials to

China, notably Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Chile and South Africa will have to adjust to

a new level of demand. Germany, a major beneficiary of fast growth in China owing to its

dominant position in the supply of capital goods, will also be affected by the slowdown.

On the positive side, a collapse of the Euro - a real possibility last year - appears to have

been averted, at least in the short-term. Some commentators have suggested that world

economic growth is now a thing of the past. Although we are more optimistic in this

respect, it seems clear that the current weakness in the growth of world trade and GDP

will probably persist for the next 12 months. This is because underlying growth in the

Western world (USA/Canada, West Europe and Japan) was held back the burden of

accumulated debt.

The forecasts presented in this report reflect expectations that overall world growth will

be relatively slow 2013-2014. Even these conservative assumptions may prove to be

over-optimistic if there is a further deterioration in the Middle East political situation .

Charts on the next page show annual growth rates and market size in the present report,

compared with results from last year.



Market for Complete Pumps

World - Annual Growth Rates and Market Size - This Year, Last Year

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$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

TOTAL ALL PUMPS - Oct 2012 Oct-13

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% Growth ($ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

TOTAL ALL PUMPS - Oct 2012 Oct-13



The Relative Growth of Industrial and Developing Countries

Over the twenty years prior to the recession developing country markets

for pumps have consistently grown faster than in industrial countries.

Growth was around 9% p.a in developing compared with 6% in industrial.

Most developing countries experienced recession in 2008-9 owing to

international trade linkages, but market decline was generally much less

than in the industrial countries. However, over the next five years we do

expect that, to a small extent, developing countries will improve their

growth rate relative to industrial compared with the last twenty years.

In Asia the growth of China has acted as a catalyst for the whole region.

Growth in Latin America is now expected to be more stable than in the

past. However the recovery of growth in West Europe, USA/Canada and

Japan is expected to be slower than experienced in previous recessions

owing to the huge increase in indebtedness as a the result of the financial

crisis.

The growth of the pump market in industrial and developing countries is

shown on the next page.



World Pump MarketComplete Pumps, including prime movers, excluding parts

Base data $ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

* West Europe, USA/Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand

Relative Pump Market Size: Industrial and Developing Countries$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Industrial Countries* Developing Countries All Countries

$ million $ million $ million

$ million 2010 17104 19169 36373

Annual % Growth Rates % % %

2008 % 4.0 18.9 10.5

2009 % -12.4 -2.5 -7.7

2010 % -1.6 10.7 4.5

2011% 10.2 7.7 8.9

2012% 0.8 7.4 4.2

Forecast

2013 % -0.8 3.5 1.5

2014 % 4.1 5.1 4.7

2015% 5.6 6.6 6.1

2016% 6.8 7.2 7.1

2017% 7.7 7.5 7.6

2018% 8.3 8.2 8.3

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Total All Pumps - Developing Advanced



Impact of Prices and Exchange Rates on Market Size and Growth

Numbers throughout this report are presented in $ at current prices, 2010

exchange rates (i.e. including inflation). This price basis is the closest we

can get to results for individual companies (excluding net acquisitions

and currency change). Market size in 2010, on this basis, was $36.3

billion, rising to $57.9 billion in 2018, as shown in the table on the next

page.

Market at 2010 Prices, 2010 Exchange Rates

If we adjust for domestic market price changes, but value the market at

constant 2010 $ exchange rates (i.e. excluding inflation), the table on the

next page shows that market size in 2018 is $47.0 billion, compared with

$57.9 billion at current prices.

Market at Current Prices, Current Exchange Rates

If we allow for changes in both domestic prices and dollar exchange

rates, market size in 2018 is estimated at $63.3 billion, compared with

$57.9 billion at current prices, 2010 exchange rates. We expect the dollar

exchange rate to depreciate. The table shows our assumptions about the

dollar exchange rate index 2013-2018.



World Pump Market Size on Different Price Bases

(1) Constant Prices, Constant Exchange Rates(2) Current Prices, Constant Exchange Rates (basis for this report)(3) Current Prices, Current Exchange Rates

* price basis for EIF Report in 2013 - results include price inflation

EIF reports before 2011 presented results at constant prices (i.e excluding inflation)

1 2 3

Market Price Market Dollar Market

$m 2010 prices Index $m current prices * Exchange Rate $m current prices

2010 exchange rates 2010=100 2010 exchange rates Index 2010=100 current exchange rates

2005 28877 93.1 26885 96.6 25971

2010 36274 100 36274 100 36274

2011 38915 101.5 39499 103.8 40999

2012 39591 104.0 41175 100.9 41545

2013 39578 105.6 41794 101.7 42504

2014 40237 108.7 43738 102.9 45006

2015 41480 111.9 46416 104.5 48504

2016 43094 115.3 49687 106.2 52767

2017 44878 119.1 53450 107.8 57619

2018 47045 123.0 57865 109.5 63362



PUMP MARKET SUMMARY

Forecasts for the pump market provided in this report are conditional on

macro-economic assumptions and trends in investment discussed later in this

section. Given these assumptions, pump market forecasts are arrived at by

regression equations linking historical data on the pump market with

historical data on investment in plant and equipment by end use industry.

This section starts by summarising the pump market forecasts and then

continues by providing the macro-economic forecasts and some of the trends

in investment by end use industry which helped to determine the pump

market forecasts.

Market size in 2013 is shown on Page II 8-II 9. The overall growth rate

2013-18 is 6.7%, compared with 3.9% 2007-12. The forecast growth rate is

a little faster than the 6% underlying trend growth, which is explained by

catching up from the below trend performance 2007-12.

The pump market in water/wastewater is shown at the foot of the table on the

next page. All water/wastewater (industrial plus municipal) accounts for

around 34% of the world pump market in 2013. These figures exclude pumps

for construction dewatering, building services and domestic (i.e. residential).



World Pump Market by Region and End Usecomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts

1)Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Philippines, Vietnam2) Pakistan, Australia, New Zealand

World Pump Market for Water/Wastewater etccomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts

3) Shown as applications in separate industrial end usesNote that construction dewatering, building services and domestic i.e. residential (shownseparately in general industry) are excluded from the above figures for water/wastewater-total

Market by World Region $ million 2013 CAGR % CAGR %Current Prices 2007-2012 2013-2018

Germany 3077 4.3 6.2Other West Europe 5921 -1.2 6.5Russia 1340 13.6 6.6Other East Europe 714 -2.6 6.3Africa 1064 1.7 3.1Middle East 3740 3.9 7.3China 8476 12.7 8.1India 1693 3.4 5.0Japan 2608 -5.3 4.2Pacific Rim 3367 8.4 6.3Other Asia 1482 11.9 6.2USA/Canada 5840 -0.5 7.7Latin America 2473 11.3 6.2Total World Market 41794 3.9 6.7

Market by End Use

Oil, Gas, Refining 8612 3.2 6.8Chemicals 4112 2.3 6.9Power Generation 3005 5.1 6.2Water/Wastewater (Municipal) 5040 2.9 6.4General Industry 21025 4.6 6.8

All Water/Wastewater $ million 2013 CAGR % CAGR %Current Prices 2007-2012 2013-2018

Water/Wastewater-Industrial 3) 8981 5.0 6.8Water/Wastewater-Municipal 5040 2.9 6.4Water/Wastewater-Total 14021 4.2 6.8



Sub-division of Pump Market in General Industrycomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts

World Market by Pump Typecomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts

Market by Pump Type $ million 2013 CAGR % CAGR %

Current Prices 2007-2012 2013-2018

Centrifugal 24108 4.0 6.8

Reciprocating 6187 3.5 6.8

Rotary 3520 2.7 6.6

Other 7979 4.4 6.5

Total Pump Market 41794 3.9 6.7

General Industry Sub-Division $ million 2013 CAGR % CAGR %Current Prices 2007-2012 2013-2018

Mining 3114 16.1 7.2

Food 1383 5.4 7.3

Drink 680 4.2 7.1

Pharmaceuticals 433 0.9 2.4

Pulp & Paper 854 -0.6 6.6

Metal Manufacturing 1378 2.2 6.8

Harbours, docks, canals 110 3.9 6.4

Shipbuilding 826 1.8 6.9

Building Services 2386 2.3 6.7

Construction dewatering 1808 3.2 6.8

Other Industry 4601 2.6 6.9

Domestic 3452 3.7 6.6

General Industry Total 21025 4.6 6.8



Cyclical Fluctuations in the Pump Market 2004-2018

Charts showing annual changes in the pump market at current prices,

2010 exchange rates are shown on the following pages:

Page II 11: West Europe, USA/Canada and Japan

Page II 12: Russia, Other East Europe, Middle East/Africa

Page II 13: China, India

Page II 14: Pacific Rim, Latin America

All countries/regions were affected by the recession 2009-2011, with

the advanced industrial countries faring the worst.



Industrial Countries - Pump Market - Annual Volume % Growth Rates

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


WEST EUROPE - TOTAL ALL PUMPS - Oct 2012 Oct-13

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USA/CANADA - TOTAL ALL PUMPS - Oct 2012 Oct-13

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JAPAN - TOTAL ALL PUMPS - Oct 2012 Oct-13



Developing Countries - Pump Market - Annual % Growth Rates

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RUSSIA - TOTAL ALL PUMPS - Oct 2012 Oct-13

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OTHER EAST EUROPE - TOTAL ALL PUMPS - Oct 2012 Oct-13

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MIDDLE EAST - TOTAL ALL PUMPS - Oct 2012 Oct-13



Developing Countries Pump Market - Annual % Growth Rates

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CHINA - TOTAL ALL PUMPS - Oct 2012 Oct-13

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INDIA - TOTAL ALL PUMPS - Oct 2012 Oct-13



Developing Countries Pump Market - Annual % Growth Rates

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PACIFIC RIM - TOTAL ALL PUMPS - Oct 2012 Oct-13

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LATIN AMERICA - TOTAL ALL PUMPS - Oct 2012 Oct-13



The Relative Growth of Pump Markets in

Industrial and Developing Countries by End Use Industry

The charts on the next five page shows the market size for industrial and

developing countries in oil, chemicals, power, water and general industry.

Markets in developing countries are not only expected to grow faster than in

industrial countries; over the forecast period we expect an increase in the

differential growth rate, favouring the developing countries.



World Market for Oil & GasPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries


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Oil & Gas - Developing Advanced



World Market for ChemicalsPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries


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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Chemicals - Developing Advanced



World Market for Power GenerationPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries


Power Generation and the Impact of Renewable Energy on the Market forPumps

One reason for the widening gap in demand between industrial and developing

countries, shown in the chart below, is the importance of wind and solar energy in

industrial countries. Renewable energy has a much lower priority in developing

countries.

Wind energy has minimal demand for pumps. While solar thermal power does have

large pump requirements, photovoltaic accounts for most additions to solar capacity

and this also has minimal pump requirements. Over the next five years we have

estimated that the switch to renewable energy for new projects will cut world demand

for pumps in power generation by 40% compared with what it would have been had

conventional thermal or nuclear power plants been adopted..

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Power Generation - Developing Advanced



World Market for Municipal Water/WastewaterPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries


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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Water - Developing Advanced



World Market for General IndustryPump Market in Industrial and Developing Countries


General Industry

The chart below shows market size in industrial and developing countries.

General industry includes mining. Last year we made a major revision to market size for

mining, which now includes all mining and quarrying activities (rather than just metal

mineral processing which was covered in reports before 2012).

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General Industry - Developing Advanced



The Market for Complete Pumps in 63 Countries

The following pages show the market for complete pumps in each of 63

countries. Countries are grouped into world regions as follows:

Asia - Page II 22

West Europe - Page II 23

East Europe - Page II 24

Africa & Middle East - Page II 25

America - Page II 26



Pump Markets in AsiaComplete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts


Country 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR% CAGR%

$million $million $million $million $million $million 2012/2007 2018/2013

Australia 1349 1441 1495 1542 1656 1821 12.8 6.2

China 8476 9027 9713 10509 11413 12513 12.7 8.1

Hong Kong 256 267 287 308 334 360 6.2 7.0

India 1693 1757 1838 1932 2043 2164 3.4 5.0

Indonesia 580 598 644 693 700 730 11.5 4.7

Japan 2608 2674 2759 2878 3030 3205 -5.3 4.2

Korea - South 955 998 1050 1134 1236 1331 4.4 6.9

Malaysia 353 369 392 415 443 472 14.1 6.0

New Zealand 49 53 57 61 65 70 7.0 7.4

Pakistan 83 85 89 95 103 111 2.5 5.9

Philippines 106 110 117 126 135 146 7.0 6.6

Singapore 256 265 278 298 321 346 11.8 6.3

Taiwan 223 226 227 233 239 244 3.4 1.8

Thailand 402 416 446 486 542 589 14.4 7.9

Vietnam 235 242 262 282 307 342 10.7 7.8



Pump Markets in West EuropeComplete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts




Austria 376 388 410 440 474 514 -1.5 6.4

Belgium 225 230 245 264 286 310 4.5 6.6

Denmark 426 439 464 499 540 587 -0.2 6.6

Finland 130 134 141 151 163 176 -4.9 6.2

France 1082 1119 1181 1269 1368 1481 0.6 6.5

Germany 3077 3160 3322 3561 3835 4156 4.3 6.2

Greece 62 59 62 66 71 77 -13.8 4.4

Ireland 79 84 88 93 99 107 -6.2 6.2

Italy 886 913 970 1033 1113 1208 -2.0 6.4

Netherlands 452 460 486 515 556 604 2.8 6.0

Norway 186 191 201 208 215 225 2.4 3.9

Portugal 83 86 91 101 112 121 -5.3 7.8

Spain 551 547 578 620 670 728 -2.1 5.8

Sweden 400 417 440 473 513 559 1.6 6.9

Switzerland 223 227 239 258 284 314 0.1 7.1

United Kingdom 760 778 826 908 995 1109 -4.5 7.9



Pump Markets in East EuropeComplete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts




Bulgaria 28 31 33 35 38 40 -4.3 7.7

Czech Republic 95 99 105 115 127 140 -0.3 8.1

Hungary 153 154 161 172 186 201 -1.1 5.7

Poland 319 329 347 368 398 434 -3.7 6.4

Romania 120 123 129 135 143 153 -2.6 5.1

Russia 1340 1400 1471 1573 1697 1844 13.6 6.6



Pump Markets in Africa & Middle East

Complete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates



Algeria 165 183 206 220 228 238 -1.4 7.5

Bahrein 30 32 36 39 40 43 0.2 7.7

Egypt 251 213 196 190 194 203 7.6 -4.2

Iran 286 306 325 339 347 356 7.1 4.5

Iraq 284 312 341 364 379 397 32.7 6.9

Israel 148 161 181 190 198 206 20.1 6.8

Kuwait 143 155 166 178 186 196 -4.4 6.5

Libya 168 156 154 161 173 191 8.1 2.6

Morocco 106 112 124 131 136 143 3.9 6.3

Nigeria 187 200 209 216 218 220 10.1 3.2

Oman 99 105 116 124 131 139 5.7 7.0

Qatar 206 175 202 235 275 321 -13.5 9.3

South Africa 255 268 256 261 284 312 -4.6 4.1

Saudi Arabia 1049 1148 1276 1403 1467 1532 2.0 7.9

Syria 28 19 20 23 26 27 -9.6 -1.2

Tunisia 72 76 83 87 91 96 12.4 6.1

Turkey 314 333 355 380 410 444 3.1 7.2

UAE 1014 1114 1208 1272 1374 1488 6.5 8.0



Pump Markets in America

Complete Pumps, inc. Prime Movers, exc. Parts$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates



Argentina 138 141 159 166 174 187 15.3 6.3

Brazil 1224 1269 1283 1405 1525 1670 10.1 6.4

Canada 934 1042 1050 1096 1177 1271 4.4 6.4

Chile 181 180 197 202 220 239 19.4 5.7

Colombia 224 227 256 262 280 301 21.4 6.1

Mexico 553 596 611 653 701 763 9.7 6.6

United States 4906 5178 5611 6091 6607 7174 -1.2 7.9

Venezuela 153 146 157 155 165 178 6.7 3.0



Macro-Economics, GDP and Investment

The driving forces behind the world economy are the growth of GDP and

capital investment. Capital investment, which is more relevant to the demand

for pumps, fluctuates much more than GDP.

These fluctuations are shown in the chart on the next page. We expect a steady

recovery in the growth of GDP and capital investment from 2013 onwards.

World trade volume, shown in the table at the foot of the next page, is

expected to resume its trend rate of growth of around 6.5% per year from 2015

onwards.



Forecast Volume Growth of World Trade in Manufactured GoodsPercent per year

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

World Trade Volume 14 6.5 3 3.5 5.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5

Annual % Change in the volume of GDP and Capital Investment - Total for World

Source: IMF, OECD, EIF estimates

Source: OECD, EIF estimates

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

GDP 4.3 1.8 2 4.2 3.6 4.3 4.3 1.7 4.3 3 2.4 2.4 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.7

Investment 5.4 0.4 0.1 6.1 7.6 7.2 6.7 1.5 8.8 3.9 3.1 4.4 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.8

2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018



Forecasts of GDP Growth by Country

GDP growth in Western industrialised countries is expected to be relatively

slow over the forecast period owing to indebtedness, and this will have some

restraining effect on the growth of developing countries.

Results for each of the 63 countries are given in tables on the following

pages:




Asia - Page II 33




GDP Growth Rates for West Europe (Volume % p.a.)

CAGR = Compound Annual Average % Growth Rate


% growth % growth % growth % growth % growth % growth 2012/2007 2018/2013

Austria 0.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 0.6 1.5

Belgium 0.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.4 1.4

Denmark 0.4 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 -0.9 1.5

Finland 0.0 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 -0.6 1.8

France -0.1 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 0.0 1.6

Germany 0.4 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.7 1.4

Greece -4.8 -1.2 2.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 -4.4 2.4

Ireland 1.0 1.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 -1.2 2.5

Italy -1.8 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 -1.4 1.1

Netherlands -0.9 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 -0.1 1.6

Norway 1.3 3.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.7 2.3

Portugal -2.7 0.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 -1.2 1.4

Spain -1.7 0.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 -0.8 1.3

Sweden 1.3 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.0 2.4

Switzerland 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.9

United Kingdom 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.5 -0.4 2.0



GDP Growth Rates for East Europe (Volume % p.a.)




Bulgaria 1.2 2.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.7 3.3

Czech Republic -1.0 1.3 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 0.3 2.6

Hungary 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 -1.0 1.5

Poland 0.9 2.2 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.1

Romania 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.5 0.3 2.8

Russia 2.3 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 1.8 3.6



GDP Growth Rates for Africa/Middle East (Volume % p.a.)




Algeria 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 2.4 3.7

Bahrain 4.2 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.6

Egypt 2.0 3.3 5.5 6.5 7.0 6.5 4.2 5.8

Iran -1.3 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.0

Iraq 9.0 8.5 8.3 9.0 8.5 8.3 7.1 8.5

Israel 3.9 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.5

Kuwait 1.1 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 0.8 3.7

Libya 20.2 10.1 9.0 8.6 5.0 5.0 -3.7 7.5

Morocco 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.8 4.4 5.3

Nigeria 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 6.8 6.9 7.0

Oman 4.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.8 6.3 3.6

Qatar 5.2 5.0 6.6 6.2 7.1 6.5 13.1 6.3

South Africa 2.8 4.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.2 3.4

Saudi Arabia 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 6.6 4.3

Syria -15.0 -20.0 8.0 12.0 15.0 10.0 -1.5 4.1

Tunisia 4.0 4.5 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 2.5 4.8

Turkey 3.1 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 3.0 4.5

United Arab Emirates 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 2.1 3.6



GDP Growth Rates for Asia (Volume % p.a.)




Australia 2.6 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.5 3.2

China 7.8 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 9.3 8.5

Hong Kong 3.0 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 2.5 4.4

India 5.3 6.4 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.8

Indonesia 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 5.9 6.4

Japan 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 -0.2 1.2

Republic of Korea 2.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.9 4.0

Malaysia 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 4.2 5.2

New Zealand 2.6 3.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 0.7 2.6

Pakistan 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1

Philippines 6.0 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.7 5.4

Singapore 2.0 5.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.3 4.3

Taiwan 3.0 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.0 2.9 4.5

Thailand 5.9 4.2 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.7 2.8 4.4

Vietnam 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.9 5.4



GDP Growth Rates for America (Volume % p.a.)




Argentina 2.8 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 5.4 3.1

Brazil 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.2 4.0

Canada 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.1 2.4

Chile 4.9 5.3 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 3.8 4.7

Colombia 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.5

Mexico 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 1.6 3.4

United States 1.9 2.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 2.9 0.6 3.2

Venezuela 0.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.0 2.4



Forecasts for the Growth of Capital Investment

When it comes to forecasting the growth of the pump market, the growth of

capital investment is more relevant than GDP. Consequently, we link our

forecasts for the total market for pumps in each country to our forecasts of

capital investment.

Results for each of the 63 countries are given in tables on the following pages:




Asia - Page II 39




Capital Investment Growth Rates for West Europe (Volume % p.a.)




Austria 0.6 2.8 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.3 0.9 2.1

Belgium -1.6 1.1 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 -0.7 1.9

Denmark 3.2 4.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 -5.8 2.2

Finland -3.5 1.7 1.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 -2.9 2.1

France -2.3 0.7 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.8 -1.5 2.2

Germany -0.3 5.2 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.7 -0.9 3.5

Greece -7.7 -2.5 11.0 13.6 7.8 7.0 -16.1 7.2

Ireland 0.3 5.7 5.9 6.4 6.6 7.1 -18.0 6.3

Italy -4.3 -1.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.7 -5.0 2.2

Netherlands -3.1 -0.1 2.3 3.4 3.9 3.9 -3.2 2.7

Norway 5.9 6.4 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.8 0.2 4.7

Portugal -10.6 -0.7 8.6 7.6 5.1 3.8 -8.3 4.8

Spain -9.9 -2.9 -0.9 0.6 1.5 2.0 -9.3 0.0

Sweden 0.8 3.1 3.8 5.0 5.2 5.2 0.9 4.5

Switzerland 1.2 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.9 3.5 -0.6 2.8

United Kingdom 1.8 4.1 5.2 5.6 6.3 6.0 -4.5 5.4

Austria 4.4 5.5 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 1.3 5.8



Capital Investment Growth Rates for East Europe (Volume % p.a.)




Bulgaria 3.5 3.9 4.0 9.1 8.5 7.3 -6.3 6.6

Czech Republic -3.6 0.9 3.0 3.1 3.9 3.3 -3.8 2.8

Hungary -2.5 -0.4 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 -4.1 1.8

Poland -1.2 4.0 4.6 5.8 5.9 5.9 0.5 5.2

Romania 3.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 3.9 5.0 -2.4 3.3

Russia 10.9 5.2 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.6 1.1 5.0



Capital Investment Growth Rates for Middle East/Africa (Volume % p.a.)




Algeria 17.8 8.2 5.0 3.8 4.2 4.1 3.7 5.1

Bahrain 0.5 6.0 4.3 3.6 3.0 3.1 3.7 4.0

Egypt -5.4 -15.0 -5.0 6.5 5.0 6.1 -0.3 -0.9

Iran 11.2 9.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.5 -1.2 1.1

Iraq 9.0 8.4 8.3 9.0 8.5 8.3 7.1 8.5

Israel 0.1 4.8 8.1 5.9 6.1 6.5 2.5 6.3

Kuwait 8.5 10.1 8.7 10.0 12.5 12.5 -2.7 10.7

Libya 50.8 23.4 29.3 11.4 6.9 6.5 -14.0 15.1

Morocco 6.2 7.0 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.8 6.5 6.5

Nigeria 14.5 9.9 6.7 6.5 6.0 8.0 2.3 7.4

Oman 14.4 4.7 5.7 3.8 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.3

Qatar 10.0 6.7 7.8 7.1 8.6 6.7 7.3 7.4

South Africa 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.4 0.4 4.3

Saudi Arabia 13.6 10.7 8.0 8.5 7.5 7.3 6.7 8.4

Syria -30.0 -40.0 16.0 24.0 30.0 20.0 -3.8 6.1

Tunisia 0.6 5.9 6.3 5.4 5.6 3.3 4.5 5.3

Turkey 4.9 8.8 5.7 4.7 5.0 5.0 4.6 5.8

United Arab Emirates -2.3 9.0 2.5 4.0 4.1 5.1 2.7 4.9



Capital Investment Growth Rates for Asia Pacific (Volume % p.a.)




Australia 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.7 2.7 4.9

China 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.1 8.2 8.1 11.8 8.2

Hong Kong 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.1 6.5 4.0

India 6.4 7.7 8.1 7.7 7.2 7.0 5.2 7.5

Indonesia 7.1 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.2 13.6 8.5

Japan 2.0 0.6 1.4 2.4 2.7 2.9 -2.4 2.0

Republic of Korea 2.0 6.0 3.5 4.2 4.5 5.5 2.2 4.7

Malaysia 9.0 6.0 6.0 5.2 5.2 4.4 6.0 5.4

New Zealand 9.1 9.5 5.0 3.7 2.8 2.7 -3.4 4.7

Pakistan 7.1 0.8 5.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 -8.4 3.2

Philippines 9.7 7.8 7.8 5.8 5.8 5.4 7.1 6.5

Singapore 4.6 5.9 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.5 8.4 4.9

Taiwan 2.3 3.0 3.1 3.2 4.5 5.5 0.7 3.9

Thailand 6.0 2.5 3.1 5.2 6.3 6.2 5.4 4.6

Vietnam 3.0 6.3 8.0 6.2 7.1 6.2 -6.4 6.8



Capital Investment Growth Rates for America (Volume % p.a.)




Argentina 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.2 5.2 1.9

Brazil 8.2 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 2.4 4.6

Canada 1.2 3.5 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.1 1.1 3.1

Chile 7.3 7.6 3.9 4.4 4.4 3.9 8.0 4.8

Colombia 2.6 1.7 3.5 2.8 6.0 4.5 4.4 3.7

Mexico 2.4 4.7 3.0 3.1 2.6 3.2 1.0 3.3

United States 5.1 7.8 9.3 8.2 7.0 6.7 -3.3 7.8

Venezuela -0.4 -15.0 -3.5 -1.8 1.5 2.0 -1.1 -3.6



Pump Markets in the World's largest Countries/Regions

In this section we consider developments in the world's largest countries by

population and land area, which are summarised in the table below.

Some Key Issues affecting the Largest Countries/Regions

West Europe Sluggish real growth until 2014

USA Boost to growth of oil and gas and chemicals owing to fracking

Japan Recovery uncertain despite expansionery monetary policy

Russia Prospects highly dependent on oil and gas

China Strong growth expected to continue, but at a slower rate

India Underlying macro problems have adverse effect on pump market

Brazil Short term setback, but good long term prospects



Complete Pump Market Trends for West Europe - $ million current prices

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

General Industry Water Power Generation Chemicals Oil & Gas

West Europe

The last historical peak in market size was in 2008, and the market declined,

or was more of less static, 2009-2013. A significant recovery is expected

from 2015 onwards, but it should be remembered that the forecasts include

price inflation of around 3% per year.



Complete Pump Market Trends for USA - $m current prices

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018


United States

Over the forecast period the US market is expected to grow strongly,

particularly when compared with historical trends. This is because of the

dramatic growth in oil and gas production as a result of fracking. The US will

become an exporter of liquefied natural gas. The US chemical industry is

expected to expand from 2013 onwards, in stark contrast to the last decade

when stagnation or contraction was the norm, as a result of low gas

feedstock prices. The direct effects of buoyancy in oil, gas and chemicals

will have positive indirect effects on the rest of the economy.



Complete Pump Market Trends for Russia$m current prices, 2010 exchange rates

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018


Russia

There was a strong growth in the market over the last five years, largely as a

result of high oil prices. We expect oil prices to remain stable over the next

five years and this will support continued market growth, but at a slower rate

than in the past.



China

The chart below summarises the results. The valve market grew at an

incredible rate 2002-2011 but is expected to slow 2012-13. Recovery is

expected from 2014, but growth is expected to be slower than over the last

ten years.

Complete Pump Market Trends for China $m current prices, 2010 exchange rates

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018




India

India experienced very rapid growth 2003-2009, but the market was static or

declining 2010-2013. We expect a resumption of growth from 2014, but at a

moderate rate. The slowdown in growth is the result of a failure to maintain

the liberal planning policy which was evident 2005-2009, combined with

misguided taxation of foreign inward investment.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018


Complete Pump Market Trends for India $m current prices, 2010 exchange rates



Focus on the Pump Market in Brazil

The market in Brazil has been transformed by effective macro-economic

policies combined with strong growth of mineral resources, particularly oil

and gas. But the period 2011-2012 saw a slowdown in growth. A strong

recovery is expected from 2016 onwards.

Complete Pump Market Trends for Brazil

$m current prices, 2010 exchange rates

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018




Brazil Pump Production, Exports, Imports and the Market

We have reassessed the Brazillian market in the light of the most recent data

from government statistics, as shown in the table on the next page.

Over the period 2005-11 the market grew at an average annual rate of 16.1%.

Imports grew by 18.7% p.a., exports by 6.9% p.a.

Overall production grew by only 6% p.a. Production of centrifugal pumps

grew by 8.9% p.a., rotary by 9.8% p.a. while production of reciprocating

pumps fell by 1.8% p.a.



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Pump Production Pump Market

2005$ million

2006$ million

2007$ million

2008$ million

2009$ million

2010$ million

2011$ million

cagr%2011/2005

2012 est$ million

Centrifugal Pumps 179.8 188.3 211.4 262.3 302.8 300 299.7 8.9

Reciprocating Pumps 2.9 61.7 6.1 10.8 5.7 4.3 2.6 -1.8

Rotary Pumps 42.6 48.5 92.4 85.6 58.8 73.8 74.7 9.8

Pump Parts 79.3 8.8 96.3 48.1 52.5 79.6 118.5 6.9

Total Pump Production(inc. not identified above)

557.5 623.4 691.6 659.7 653.3 750.8 790.2 6 678

Pump Export 465 476 568 600 409 522 695 6.9 597

Pump Import 389 432 581 796 613 931 1086 18.7 1038

Pump Market 481.5 579.4 704.6 855.7 857.3 1159.8 1181.2 16.1 1120

Brazil Pump Production, Exports, Imports and the Market

$ millions at current exchange rates unless stated

Source: EIF estimates, IBGE Annual Industrial Surveys



Pump Export Summary

The detailed tables in Volume II identify imports of pumps into 63 countries

supplied by exports from the EU (15 countries), USA, Japan and China . The

table below summarises exports by supplier in 2012.

World Pump Exports in 2012$ million, current prices 2010 exchange rates (or CAGR)

Pump SupplierComplete

pumpsPumpParts

TotalExports

Total2012/2006% CAGR

EU (15 countries) 10765 5909 16675 1.8

USA 3381 1357 4738 11

Japan 1362 1089 2451 1.1

China 6968 2258 9226 27.2

Total identified 22476 10613 33090 7.1

Chinese exports grew by 27.2% per year 2006-2012, compared with 1.8%

for EU (15 countries). USA exports grew by 11% p.a. and Japanese by

1.1% p.a. Chinese export growth is clearly at the expense of export growth

by the major industrial countries.

Parts accounted for 24% of Chinese exports in 2012, compared with 35%

for the EU, 29% for USA and 44% for Japan.



China as a Supplier of Complete Pumps (see Page II 52)

(figures at current prices, 2010 exchange rates)

In 2012 exports of complete pumps by China accounted for 13.7% of the

combined export by EU (15 countries), USA, Japan and China, compared

with 17.9% in 2011. In 2003 the Chinese market share was only 3.9%. In the

large pump markets, the Chinese import market share in 2012 was above

average in Indonesia (61%), Japan (40%), India (34%), USA (32%).

China as a Supplier of Pump Parts ( see Page II 53)

China accounted for 11.6% of imports of pump parts in 2012, compared with

10.5% in 2011 (3.4% in 2003). Above average import market shares were in

Japan (55%), USA (33%) and Italy (19%).

Significance of China as a Supplier

At present most of the exports by China are probably directly or indirectly

controlled by Western pump manufacturers, either through joint ventures or

as distributors. This can be expected to change in the future as more

independent Chinese pump manufacturers develop export markets. Even

today, however, the significance of China as a pump exporter is under-

represented in volume terms by the figures quoted above, which relate to

percent shares of $ values. This is because Chinese export prices are

probably only 50% of Western prices for similar products.



ALLSUPPLIERS

2012$ MILLION

CHINA2012

$ MILLION

CHINA2010

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2011

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2012

PERCENTSHARE

Indonesia 386.1 245.8 63 63.6 61.2Vietnam 152.3 91.3 54.5 62.4 59.6Pakistan 53.8 30.8 71.8 66.3 57.4Syria 22.3 11.7 36.9 41.9 43.6Nigeria 137 71.4 59.9 53.1 42.1Japan 270.2 134.2 60.7 51.8 39.8Hong Kong 177.6 82.7 45.4 46.6 35.6Iran 205.8 86.7 17.4 28.4 34.9United States 1485 596.6 39.5 44.1 32.4India 444.7 172.8 38 33.8 31.4Thailand 306.5 113.9 35.4 39.6 30Iraq 159.1 49.5 43.9 35.7 29.3Malaysia 225.4 69 29.4 35.7 26Philippines 84.1 24.5 34.8 33.2 24.5Libya 87.8 24.6 16.8 29.4 24.3Brazil 313.1 84.2 24.5 26.4 21.4Venezuela 143.8 37.5 24.4 28.9 19.8Taiwan 152.7 36.7 25.7 26.4 18.9Australia 312.6 62.4 22.9 23.5 18.5Turkey 329.9 63.9 15.7 16.5 16.8South Africa 152.3 28.1 16.2 14.6 15.6Algeria 117.2 21.5 9.1 11.4 15.3WORLD (63 COUNTRY TOTAL) 18755.2 3247.5 16.5 17.9 13.7UAE 638.4 107.5 16.9 18.1 13.5Egypt 177 29.7 13.5 14.8 13.1Argentina 106.5 17.7 25.7 21.7 12.4Russia 884.6 141.9 15.2 17.5 12.3New Zealand 33.6 5.2 18.2 15.7 12.1Finland 134.9 20.7 15 16 11.8Romania 79.1 11.7 13 14.3 11.7Mexico 441.5 65.3 17.1 14.3 11.2Italy 506.7 69 13.3 14.3 11.2Chile 140 17.6 12.9 13.8 10.5Colombia 146.8 18 10.3 10.8 10Singapore 427.1 50.8 12.3 15.4 9.6Poland 345 40.9 11.4 12.3 9.5Morocco 83.7 9.6 12 12.1 9.3Korea - South 592.9 67 11 13.6 9.1Germany 1136.2 122 11.2 13.1 8.1Greece 46.5 4.9 6.7 8.5 7.4Bulgaria 20.5 2.1 5.9 6.7 7.2Tunisia 50.2 4.9 3.6 6 7United Kingdom 517.2 50 10.5 10.8 6.1Portugal 65.8 5.6 4.2 6 6.1Netherlands 408.5 28.6 7.7 8.1 5.6Spain 311.5 20.5 5.1 6.7 5.1Oman 68.8 4.5 11.7 10.3 4.8Denmark 160.2 9.6 4.9 5.5 4.5Czech Republic 129.4 7.3 5.5 5.5 4.3France 834.7 43.3 4.5 5.3 4.3Belgium 314.1 16.5 6.4 6.1 3.9Israel 104.8 5.3 8.5 6.9 3.6Saudi Arabia 594.8 28.8 6.3 8.4 3.1Canada 1114.7 50.6 5 5.1 2.6Sweden 209.6 8.8 4.5 4.2 2.5Austria 186.2 7.4 2.7 4.1 2Bahrein 22.5 0.8 2.4 2.4 1.9Hungary 106.4 3.7 4.3 4.1 1.9Kuwait 97.9 2.9 6.6 3.5 1.5Qatar 109.3 2.9 2 2.1 1.4

Imports of Complete Pumps, Ranked by China's share in 2012



ALLSUPPLIERS

2012$ MILLION

CHINA2012

$ MILLION

CHINA2010

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2011

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2012

PERCENTSHARE

Japan 175.2 95.8 29.7 53.4 54.7Indonesia 76.8 38 38.9 42.8 49.5Syria 4 1.5 12.4 31.2 37.3United States 1235.8 406 30.9 33.1 32.9Iran 35.5 10.9 7.6 16.5 30.8Hong Kong 60.2 18.5 25.2 31 30.8Pakistan 19.1 5.5 13.5 16.8 28.6Russia 193 42.2 25.1 24 21.9Italy 272.9 53.1 14.4 17.5 19.4Argentina 45 7.8 11 16.2 17.3Taiwan 92.4 15.5 20.8 24.4 16.8Finland 53.7 8.6 8.6 11.7 16

Vietnam 20.5 3.2 28.9 21.6 15.6Ireland 33.1 5.1 10.1 14.7 15.4Malaysia 56.4 8.2 6.3 7.3 14.6Denmark 83.2 11.8 14.7 15.4 14.2Australia 140.8 20.1 10.4 14.9 14.2Korea - South 243.9 32.4 10.4 8.2 13.3Spain 168.5 20.7 5.8 7.2 12.3WORLD (63 COUNTRY TOTAL) 9453 1097.6 8.3 10.5 11.6India 224.9 22.4 4.1 10.2 9.9South Africa 92.9 8 7.1 8.3 8.6Colombia 60.3 5 1.8 5.1 8.3Singapore 167.2 13.7 5 7.3 8.2Philippines 26.5 2.1 5.6 11.3 8Mexico 232.6 17.5 2 4.6 7.5Germany 630.5 46.7 4.8 6.6 7.4Canada 629.2 45.1 3.1 6.8 7.2UAE 144.4 10.1 6.2 7.4 7Saudi Arabia 175.6 11.4 3 6.5 6.5Brazil 147.1 9 3.9 6.1 6.1Netherlands 250.2 15.1 4.9 4.3 6Austria 124.1 7.3 2.9 3.6 5.9Iraq 34.3 2 3.9 5.8 5.8Egypt 70.7 3.9 2.9 3.9 5.5Sweden 93.4 4.9 4.3 4.2 5.3Chile 59.3 3.1 2.1 4.2 5.3United Kingdom 311.6 15.8 4 5 5.1Belgium 147 7.1 4.1 3.4 4.8Libya 24.4 1.2 5.1 5.2 4.7New Zealand 11.8 0.5 3.9 6.1 4.5Hungary 167.6 6.5 3.4 3.5 3.9Turkey 132.5 4.7 2.5 2.9 3.6Oman 32.1 1.1 4.2 5.6 3.6Thailand 194 6.3 2.3 2.1 3.2Kuwait 36.2 1.1 1.3 1.9 3.1Algeria 43.7 1.2 3.1 1.7 2.7Nigeria 37.1 1 4.1 2.4 2.6Poland 128.5 3.2 2.3 2.3 2.5Israel 25.1 0.6 1.5 2.5 2.5France 404.7 9.9 1.6 2.2 2.5Venezuela 105.2 2.3 0.5 2.6 2.2Morocco 25.4 0.5 1.6 1.7 1.9Greece 22 0.3 0.7 1 1.4Switzerland 84.5 1 0.3 0.9 1.2Romania 63 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9Czech Republic 450.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

Imports of Pump Parts, Ranked by China's share in 2012



Uncertainties Surrounding the Forecasts

There are many uncertainties surrounding the forecasts. The following notes

attempt to place these into perspective. There are four main issues:

a) Data problems affecting historical measurement of market size

b) Macro-economic issues

c) Issues affecting specific industries

d) Issues affecting particular countries

Data Problems

Analysis of the pump market depends to a large extent on the proper

measurement of trends and cycles of fixed investment by end use industry.

Detailed notes on our methodology are given in the Appendix. The main

difficulty we have is that historical investment data based on government

statistics (the most reliable source) is usually two years out of date, and is

also subject to large revisions. The last complete data relates to the year

2012. Figures on fixed investment by end use industry for the year 2012 are

our estimates, while for 2013 onwards the figures are our forecasts. We

bridge the gap by detailed analysis of investment in major projects, but there

are difficulties here arising from the time-phasing of each project.



Macro-Economic Issues

The main uncertainty is whether the recovery from recession will be

sustained. Some commentators argue that a recent slowdown in the rate of

recovery foreshadows a move to a ‘double-dip’ recession - particularly in

West Europe, where the UK and Euro member states are set for large

reductions in public expenditure. In the EU there are particular debt

problems with Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain. The slowdown of

growth in China compounds the problem of slow growth in the West.

Issues Affecting Specific Industries

Recession will reduce demand in all end use industries, and so capital

investment will be cut back. Investment in some end use industries will be

more affected than others. Recession is expected to have the largest impact

on pumps for building services, construction dewatering and the chemical

industry.

Construction will decline following falls in property prices and the general

impact of recession. Investment in the chemical industry will fall because

of lower levels of domestic demand combined with a slump in international

trade in chemicals. Although lower oil prices will feed through to lower

feedstock prices this will not help capital investment in chemicals.



Issues Affecting Particular Countries

China

The future annual time path of the Chinese pump market (and the Chinese

economy as a whole) is one of the most uncertain features of the forecast. It

is clear that investment growth in China has been excessive in the last ten

years (averaging over 20% a year, compared with under 10% a year for

GDP) - this divergence in growth rates cannot persist forever. Moreover,

we doubt the credibility of official Chinese government statistics on capital

investment. A slowdown in Chinese GDP growth is now evident, and an

expected switch in the composition of demand away from investment and

exports in favour of consumer spending is expected to reduce the overall

pump content of capital investment.

Japan

Prospects for pump market growth in Japan are still subject to considerable

uncertainty because macro-economic prospects are difficult to predict. A

continuation of deflation is probable, with attendant economic stagnation.

As a result, markets for pumps in power generation and other infrastructure

will be depressed, as over the last decade. There is particular uncertainty

over future investment in nuclear power.



The World Pump Market and the Top 25 Pump Companies

The top 25 pump companies account for around 65% of the world pump market. The

world pump market identified in this report amounted to $35.5 billion in 2010, but this

excludes parts and accessories, installation and aftermarket services included in pump

company sales, which amount to a further $5 billion, making a total of over $40 billion.

This is on a narrow definition of the pump market. A wider definition, which included the

value of pump installation and aftermarket services carried out by plant owners and

contractors, would increase market size to $53 billion in 2010.

It is sometimes difficult to disentangle pump sales from total sales of companies who

supply more than pumps. Our estimates are shown below. In 2010 the top 25 pump

companies are estimated to account for a 65% of the world pump market, using a narrow

market definition.

EIF Estimates of Pump Sales of the Top 25 Pump Companies $ million, current prices (includes acquisitions and currency changes)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 est.

ALFA LAVAL 184 159 180 223 224 226COLFAX 482 419 433 553 599 593CURTISS-WRIGHT 243 246 256 265 292 292DOVER CORPORATION 467 388 341 407 490 505EBARA 1625 1721 1716 1892 2007 2033FLOWSERVE 2514 2708 2389 2581 2828 2941FMC TECHNOLOGIES 130 103 115 157 192 201GARDNER-DENVER 768 604 636 892 850 867GRUNDFOS 3732 3182 3487 3941 3776 3889HMS GROUP 177 191 339 511 558 580IDEX 697 641 731 817 853 878ITT INDUSTRIAL PROCESS 817 719 694 767 956 975KSB 2053 1847 1811 2069 2065 2085KUBOTA 469 503 485 570 652 717LUFKIN 342 188 254 404 506 567PENTAIR WATER GROUP 1103 924 1021 1140 1319 1392ROBBINS & MYERS 195 151 143 178 185 188ROPER INDUSTRIES 550 422 486 590 636 648SPIRAX SARCO 140 131 159 192 199 207SPX FLOW TECHNOLOGY 1199 980 997 1225 1797 1815SULZER 1680 1706 1511 2051 2202 2135TOROSHIMA PUMP 442 481 569 580 583 594WEIR GROUP 1860 1708 2022 2969 3249 2956WILO 1439 1290 1359 1513 1543 1573XYLEM 3560 2849 3202 3803 3791 3719TOTAL IDENTIFIED 26867 24260 25335 30290 32352 32582

The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 1


III THE PUMP MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE

Introduction

The pump market by product type is conventionally analysed by a technical

classification which distinguishes product groups, such as centrifugal,

reciprocating or rotary, and by sub-divisions within these groups. These are the

classifications provided by official government statistics and are the subject of

this section.

The technical classification, while useful and also relevant to production

economics, does not provide insight into the pump market by end use. This is

because a pump described with a technical classification can be used in end use

industries with markedly different economic prospects. For example,

submersible pumps are used mainly by the water and sewerage industry and in

construction dewatering, end uses which can have markedly different trends.

An alternative approach to pump market segmentation by product type is to

consider pump demand by application within each end use industry, which is

the subject of Section IV. This alternative approach has more bearing on pump

marketing than the technical classification. Within the pump industry the terms

'standard', 'engineered' and 'special purpose' pumps are commonly used, but

have no basis in official government statistics. Section IV shows how these

terms can be related to pump demand by end use industry.



Summary of the World Pump Market by World Region

and Product Type

The market forecasts provided in this report relate to complete pumps,

including prime movers, excluding parts. The valuation is at ex-factory cost,

so that costs of pump installation are excluded.

The chart on the next page summarises the forecasts by product type.

Centrifugal pumps are, of course, the largest pump type, followed by

reciprocating and rotary.

The choice of pump type depends on the pump application, which in turn

depends on the end use industry, but most pump types are used in most end

use industries. Consequently, growth rates for the different pump types are

fairly similar at the broad level of aggregation shown in the chart. There are

trends involving some substitution between pump types in certain

applications and also within pump types in the same application. Examples

within centrifugal are submersible versus end suction pumps, and within

rotary peristaltic versus other rotary pumps. Technological change also

affects demand by pump type by changing pump applications: environmental

investment being a good example.



World Market for Complete Pumps by Product Type$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Method of Estimating the Market by Product Type

For the advanced industrial countries of West Europe, USA and Japan the

historical sub-division by pump type is based on the composition of production

and imports. For developing countries the sub-division is based on the

composition of imports alone. This approach allows some further historical

sub-division of centrifugal, reciprocating and rotary pump markets. The

forecasts are based on the projected market by end use, coupled with a rough

allocation of the demand by pump type across different end uses.

0

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Centrifugal Reciprocating Rotary Domestic/other



The Market for Pump Parts

We do not include parts in the market forecasts because factors governing the

aftermarket are complex and forecasts require quite different methods

compared with forecasts for complete pumps.

The data on pump parts for the major industrial countries, in particular,

should be treated with caution. This is because largely complete pumps may

be imported, although they may be classified as parts.

The table on the next page shows imports of pump parts in 2012 ranked by

country within each world region, together with the compound average

annual percentage growth rate (CAGR) 2012/2009.

In many cases the recession in 2009 resulted in declines in the market

average 2008-11, particularly in West Europe and the USA. We might expect

the parts market to be more stable than the market for complete pumps in a

recession, but this was not the case



Imports of Pump Parts - Ranking by 63 Countries

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates or CAGR %

$ million2012

CAGR%2009-12

$ million2012

CAGR%2009-12

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EAST cont

Germany 675 4.5 Iran 38 -25.5France 435 3.1 Iraq 37 21.1United Kingdom 333 6.1 Oman 34 -13Italy 295 5.2 Morocco 27 4.2Netherlands 268 9.3 Israel 27 12.2Spain 182 -2.1 Libya 26 -7.9Belgium 158 3.6 Bahrein 20 38.9Austria 134 11 Tunisia 19 3.2Sweden 101 7.7 Syria 4 -28Norway 97 8.4Switzerland 91 8.6Denmark 90 12.1 ASIAFinland 58 2.9Ireland 36 4.4 China 620 7.7Portugal 32 -0.4 Korea - South 257 14.5Greece 23 -7.3 India 239 13.6

0 0 Thailand 197 23.2EAST EUROPE 0 0 Japan 192 -4.1

0 0 Singapore 178 -3Czech Republic 483 34.8 Australia 152 9.6Russia 209 31.6 Taiwan 99 18Hungary 177 10.5 Indonesia 82 25.3Poland 138 13.8 Hong Kong 65 27.2Romania 68 17.8 Malaysia 60 16.8Bulgaria 52 75.7 Philippines 28 10.5

Vietnam 22 9.9AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 21 6

New Zealand 13 18.2Saudi Arabia 188 5.3UAE 155 12.4Turkey 142 13.6 AMERICASouth Africa 100 18.5Egypt 76 7.5 United States 1323 20.1Algeria 47 -9.5 Canada 675 9.3Qatar 41 -2 Mexico 248 4.4Nigeria 40 10.4 Brazil 158 9.7Kuwait 38 6.8 Venezuela 113 15.2

Colombia 65 -17.4Chile 64 8.4



Complete Pumps by Product Type

The proportion of pumps used in the different end use industries largely

determines the variation in demand for pumps of different types. This is

because we do not believe that there is significant substitution between

different pump types (at the level of detail presented in this report), within

a particular end use. There are, however, major variations in the types of

pump used in the different end use industries, and demand trends can

differ significantly between industries. Moreover, the relative importance

of different industries varies markedly from country to country.

Consequently, the extent of sub-division of demand between different end

uses is an important part of market analysis, and this is discussed in detail

in Section IV.

Estimation Methods for the Pump Market by Product Type

We estimate the market by product type in each country by considering the share of

each product type in production and imports. This does not tell us the product market

size by end use industry, so we estimate this by simulation, given our historical data

and forecasts by end use (discussed in Section IV), combined with the product

composition of production and imports. Full details of the cross-classification by

country, end use industry and product type is provided in a supplementary Excel file

(available to purchasers of the full World Pump Market Report). Given the data

problems, it is difficult to ensure that the market by end use industry agrees exactly

with the market by product type. For the year 2013 the market by end use industry

totalled $42.2 billion, while the market by product type totalled $41.5 billion.



Centrifugal Pumps

The market for centrifugal pumps totals around $25bn. These pumps are used

by all industries; Page III 8 shows that oil, gas, chemicals and power together

account for around 40% of the total.

The table on Page III 9 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The

largest markets are in the advanced industrial countries of West Europe,

USA, Canada, Japan, plus China, India, South Korea, Mexico and Russia.



Centrifugal Pumps By End Use and World Region$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

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General Industry Water(Indust&Municip Power Chemicals Oil

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2013$M

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2013$M

CAGR%2013-2018

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcontinued

Germany 2061 6.5 South Africa 95 5.0France 956 6.5 Kuwait 95 6.7United Kingdom 593 8.1 Israel 75 7.0Denmark 405 6.6 Algeria 74 7.4Italy 384 6.4 Morocco 38 6.0Spain 318 5.8 Oman 29 7.0Sweden 249 7.0 Tunisia 25 6.1Netherlands 244 6.1 Bahrein 23 8.0Austria 200 6.4 Syria 14 -3.2Belgium 163 6.6Switzerland 125 7.1Norway 105 4.0 ASIAFinland 95 6.0Ireland 54 6.3 China 5249 8.2Portugal 34 7.2 Japan 1218 4.1Greece 28 4.0 India 978 5.4

Australia 588 4.8EAST EUROPE Korea - South 532 6.2

Indonesia 299 4.5Russia 1061 6.8 Thailand 218 7.7Poland 193 6.0 Malaysia 182 6.0Hungary 115 5.7 Singapore 129 5.8Czech Republic 75 8.2 Taiwan 123 2.4Romania 62 5.2 Vietnam 97 7.7Bulgaria 24 7.9 Philippines 63 6.7

Pakistan 54 5.7AFRICA/MID. EAST Hong Kong 46 6.5

New Zealand 20 7.7Saudi Arabia 812 7.7UAE 509 8.7Iran 214 4.4 AMERICATurkey 200 7.4Qatar 173 9.4 United States 2586 7.7Nigeria 137 3.3 Canada 493 6.1Egypt 134 -4.5 Brazil 302 6.7Iraq 133 6.9 Mexico 195 7.4Libya 110 1.5 Colombia 92 5.8

Chile 88 5.9Venezuela 76 -4.8Argentina 53 5.8

Centrifugal Pump Market - Ranking by 63 countries

$ million or CAGR % Growth Rates



Further Sub-division of Centrifugal Pumps

The table below provides some further sub-division of the centrifugal pump

market. The forecasts assume that the end use composition of demand by

product type is unchanged from the level in 2012. The growth therefore

depends on the forecasts by end use.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR% CAGR%

2007-12 2013-18

Centrifugal - Submersible Motor 4061 4223 4461 4779 5154 5575 4 6.5

Centrifugal - Single stage, single entry -close coupled

2348 2421 2576 2805 3041 3311 3.3 7.1

Centrifugal - Single stage, single entry -long coupled

2899 3026 3218 3471 3763 4103 4.7 7.2

Centrifugal - Single stage, double suction 802 852 908 939 1006 1088 7.1 6.3

Centrifugal - Multistage (exc. submersible& axial/mixed flow)

4954 5180 5523 5894 6307 6820 4 6.6

Centrifugal - Other 9044 9436 10004 10766 11606 12574 3.7 6.8

Centrifugal Pumps 24108 25140 26688 28654 30878 33469 4 6.8

World Centrifugal Pump Market - $ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates



Reciprocating Pumps

The market for reciprocating pumps amounts to around $6 billion. Page III

12 shows that 67% of demand arises in West Europe, USA/Canada and

Japan (about the same percent as centrifugal). Oil and gas and chemicals,

pulp and paper account for 43% of total demand.


largest markets are USA, China, Germany, Japan, Brazil and Canada.



Reciprocating Pumps By End Use and World Region$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

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WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcont

Germany 253 5.9 Qatar 22 9.3United Kingdom 54 6.5 Turkey 21 -1.1Netherlands 52 4.2 Libya 20 -6.3France 48 5.9 Israel 17 6.6Italy 44 3.0 Tunisia 11 6.3Norway 33 1.7 Kuwait 8 6.8Austria 27 6.2 Bahrein 4 6.4Sweden 24 6.5 Morocco 2 8.9Spain 22 -2.7Belgium 12 7.2Switzerland 10 7.3Denmark 7 7.2 ASIAPortugal 6 8.6Ireland 5 7.8 China 848 6.8Greece 3 2.7 Australia 323 11.0Finland 2 5.6 India 213 5.9

Japan 172 3.9EAST EUROPE Korea - South 151 7.4

Indonesia 131 5.4Russia 119 5.2 Malaysia 124 5.7Poland 21 14.5 Thailand 94 8.6Hungary 18 5.5 Singapore 80 6.9Romania 10 4.3 Vietnam 72 8.2Czech Republic 6 7.4 Taiwan 57 1.1Bulgaria 1 1.9 Philippines 27 7.6

Hong Kong 21 6.4AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 12 6.2

New Zealand 6 7.7UAE 222 7.6Iraq 123 6.6Saudi Arabia 90 7.3 AMERICASouth Africa 68 -0.6Algeria 56 8.0 United States 1221 8.4Oman 55 6.9 Brazil 367 5.1Iran 29 5.2 Canada 253 7.1Egypt 29 -4.9 Mexico 208 4.8Nigeria 26 2.3 Colombia 102 6.3

Venezuela 64 11.3Argentina 45 7.8Chile 22 4.9

Reciprocating Pump Market - Ranking by 63 countries




Further Sub-division of Reciprocating Pumps

The table shows similar growth rates for piston and other reciprocating

pumps.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR% CAGR%

2007-12 2013-18

Reciprocating - Piston/Plunger 1824 2000 2150 2237 2378 2575 1.7 7.1

Reciprocating - Other 4362 4624 4876 5191 5576 6029 4.3 6.7

Reciprocating Pumps 6187 6624 7026 7428 7954 8604 3.5 6.8

World Reciprocating Pump Market - $ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Complete pumps, inc. prime movers, exc. parts



Rotary Pumps

The world market for rotary pumps amounts to around $3 billion, with the

advanced industrial countries (West Europe, USA/Canada and Japan)

accounting for 69% of the total.

Page III 16 shows that oil and gas, chemicals, pulp and paper and power

generation account for 39% of total demand.



USA, Canada and Japan, plus China, Brazil and India.



Rotary Pumps By End Use and World Region$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates

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CAGR%2013-2018

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EASTcontinued

Germany 426 5.8 Israel 5 6.2United Kingdom 94 7.4 Libya 3 -3.8Italy 77 6.3 Kuwait 3 3.7France 72 6.6 Qatar 2 0.9Spain 39 4.6 Oman 2 8.9Austria 39 6.5 Algeria 2 5.0Netherlands 35 5.9 Syria 1 2.7Switzerland 34 6.8 Morocco 1 1.6Norway 30 3.9Sweden 29 6.9Belgium 15 6.7Denmark 12 6.0 ASIAIreland 5 3.1Finland 4 7.5 China 584 7.9Portugal 2 4.3 Japan 283 4.3Greece 2 1.8 India 162 4.6

Korea - South 78 7.6EAST EUROPE Australia 60 6.0

Singapore 22 6.3Russia 98 5.9 Indonesia 19 4.3Poland 15 6.9 Malaysia 18 6.5Romania 12 5.0 Taiwan 15 0.9Hungary 9 5.4 Thailand 14 7.9Czech Republic 8 8.6 Vietnam 8 7.2

Hong Kong 8 7.5Philippines 5 2.5

AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 3 7.1New Zealand 3 7.5

UAE 41 7.4South Africa 25 3.4Saudi Arabia 21 8.0 AMERICATunisia 13 6.0Turkey 11 5.8 United States 641 8.0Iraq 9 6.6 Brazil 151 6.7Iran 9 5.3 Canada 114 6.2Egypt 6 -5.1 Mexico 74 7.4Nigeria 5 1.3 Argentina 15 5.2

Colombia 14 6.0Chile 10 5.5Venezuela 8 -1.4

Rotary Pump Market - Ranking by 63 countries




Further Sub-division of Rotary Pumps

The sub-division shown in the table below is less reliable than for centrifugal

and reciprocating pumps. This is mainly because US and Japanese production

data does not sub-divide the rotary market with the West European

classification system which we use for the sub-division.

Rotary-other contains several major pump type. Progressing cavity pumps are

believed to account for around 60%.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR% CAGR%

2007-12 2013-18

Rotary - Gear 808 843 894 959 1033 1120 2.5 6.8

Rotary - Vane 667 695 735 790 851 924 2 6.7

Rotary - Screw 836 867 919 986 1060 1138 4.3 6.4

Rotary - Other 1208 1260 1326 1417 1527 1657 2.1 6.5

Rotary Pumps 3520 3665 3873 4152 4468 4839 2.7 6.6

World Rotary Pump Market - $ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates



Domestic & Other Pumps

Total market size is around $8 billion, with most of demand being located in

the advanced industrial countries.



USA, Canada, and Japan, plus China, Australia, South Korea, India, Mexico

and Brazil

.



2013$M

CAGR%2013-2018

2013$M

CAGR%2013-2018


Italy 382 6.7 Libya 34 9.9Germany 338 5.1 Algeria 34 7.2Spain 172 6.8 Tunisia 24 5.9Netherlands 121 6.5 Nigeria 20 4.3Austria 110 6.6 Iraq 19 8.7Sweden 99 6.9 Syria 14 0.4Switzerland 54 7.1 Oman 13 7.2Portugal 41 8.3 Qatar 9 8.8Belgium 36 6.8 Bahrein 3 7.1Greece 30 5.1Finland 30 6.3United Kingdom 19 7.2 ASIANorway 18 6.8Ireland 16 6.5 China 1794 8.4France 7 7.0 Japan 936 4.4Denmark 2 6.6 Australia 378 3.7

India 340 3.6EAST EUROPE Korea - South 195 7.9

Hong Kong 182 7.2Poland 90 4.9 Indonesia 132 4.4Russia 62 6.7 Thailand 77 7.8Romania 36 5.2 Vietnam 59 7.6Hungary 10 6.3 Taiwan 29 1.3Czech Republic 5 7.6 Malaysia 28 6.1Bulgaria 2 7.5 Singapore 25 6.5

New Zealand 20 6.9AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 14 6.3

Philippines 12 5.5UAE 242 6.9Saudi Arabia 128 8.9Turkey 82 8.6 AMERICAEgypt 82 -3.2South Africa 67 7.3 United States 458 7.6Morocco 65 6.5 Brazil 403 7.3Israel 51 6.8 Mexico 76 8.8Kuwait 37 5.8 Canada 74 6.2Iran 35 3.9 Chile 60 6.0

Argentina 25 5.1Colombia 17 6.5Venezuela 6 -16.3

Domestic & Other Pump Market - Ranking by 63 countries


The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 1



Introduction

This section of the report discusses the pump market by end use industry.

Analysis by end use is more relevant to marketing than the analysis by

product which was discussed in Section III. However, it should be borne in

mind that the end use analysis is less reliable statistically because

information on pump usage by end use is limited.

Nevertheless, differences between countries in both market size and market

growth by end use are often so large that the statistical problem of

measurement is of secondary importance. The difference between the

advanced industrial countries and developing countries is a good example. In

the advanced countries market size and growth reflects maturity and a largely

replacement market (except perhaps for the effect of environmental

legislation). In the developing countries the installed base is small, so

replacement demand is limited and market growth rates (unless constrained

by poverty) can be expected to be higher than in the industrial countries.

Another factor is that market size and growth by end use is strongly

influenced by resource endowment in particular countries, particularly for oil

& gas, chemicals, pulp & paper, and mining.



Summary of Pump Market Size by End Use Industry

The table on the next page summarises results for each of the end use

industries identified in the report.

World market growth averages 6.7% p.a. 2013-2018, compared with 3.9%

2007-2012. The underlying trend growth is between 6% and 7% per year.

The last five years saw below trend growth owing to the financial crisis,

but the importance of this factor is progressively reduced over the next five

years.

Over the historical period 2007-12 growth rates by end use varied from

16.1% for mining to -0.6% for pulp and paper. The forecast sees nuclear

power with a growth of 11.1% and coal power generation with growth of

only 2%.



The World Pump Market by End Use Industry **

Complete pumps, including prime movers, excluding parts

$ million in 2013 (at current prices, 2010 exchange rates) or CAGR %

Valuation is at ex-factory cost

** sum of 63 countries * excludes offshore Africa and Caspian Sea + includes liquefied natural gas

$ million2013

CAGR2012/2007%

CAGR2018/2013%

Oil & Gas-Onshore + 3649 2.4 7.6

Oil & Gas-Offshore * 2584 5.8 8.6

Oil Refining 2174 1.7 2.9

Basic Chemicals 2724 2.2 6.5

Biofuels 204 15.3 10.8

Other Chemicals 1389 1.7 7.1

Coal/Oil Power Gen 1060 4 2

Gas/Cogen Power Gen 798 4 5.1

Hydro Power Gen 380 6.3 8.2

Nuclear Power Gen 767 7.7 11.1

Pulp & Paper 854 -0.6 6.6

Mining 3114 16.1 7.2

Metal Manfacture 1378 2.2 6.8

Food 1383 5.4 7.3

Drink 680 4.2 7.1

Pharmaceuticals 433 0.9 2.4

Marine 826 1.8 6.9

Harbours/docks/canal 110 3.9 6.4

Other Industry 4601 2.6 6.9

Water/Wastewater - All Industry (included above) 8981 5 6.8

Water/Wastewater - Municipal 5040 2.9 6.4

Water/Wastewater - Total Industry/Municipal 14021 4.2 6.8

Building Services 2386 2.3 6.7

Domestic (i.e. residential) 3452 3.7 6.6

Construction Dewatering 1808 3.2 6.8

Total 41794 3.9 6.7



Methods of Analysis by End Use Industry

The approach involves breaking down estimates of the pump market in

different end uses into applications within each end use according to the

characteristics of the pumps required. These applications can be grouped

together to show market sizes for engineered, standard and special purpose

pumps, which we summarise at the beginning of this section. Later parts of

this section show market sizes by end use and for applications within each

end use.

The following table lists the end uses and applications identified in the

report.

Characteristics of the Identified Applications

The table column headed ‘range’ provides a broad classification into three

categories which are mainly determined by the application and pump

technology. These are:

ENGEngineered Pumps

STDStandard Pumps

SPESpecial Purpose Pumps



ENDUSE APPLICATION RANGE SIZE CLIENTS CONTRACT

OIL & GAS PRODUCTION MAIN OIL LINE & TRANSFER PUMPS ENG A C A

(SEPARATELY FOR ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE) METERING/ DOSING SPE C C C

FIRE PUMPS ENG A C A

INJECTION PUMPS ENG A C A

SEA WATER LIFT PUMPS ENG A C A

GAS SCRUBBING SPE B C B

LNG/NGL PUMPS SPE B C B

EFFLUENT TREATMENT PUMP SPE B C B

UTILITY STD C C B

CHEMICALS-BASIC METERING/ DOSING SPE C B C

CHEMICAL PROCESS STD B B A

CLEAR LIQUIDS STD C B C

SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C B C

UTILITY STD C B C

CHEMICALS-DOWNSTREAM CHEMICAL DOSING SPE C A C

CHEMICAL PROCESS STD B A B

CLEAR LIQUIDS STD C A C

METERING SPE C A C

SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C A C

UTILITY STD C A C

OIL REFINING REFINERY PROCESS ENG B C A

WATER CIRCULATING STD C C B

BOILER FEED & BOOSTER STD B C B

SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C C C

LPG PUMPS SPE B C B

UTILITY STD C C C

POWER-COAL/OIL COAL/OIL-BOILER FEED-100% DUTY ENG A C A

COAL/OIL-BOILER FEED-50% DUTY ENG A C A

COAL/OIL-COOLING WATER ENG A C A

COAL/OIL-BOOSTER ENG A C A

COAL/OIL-HEATER DRAINS ENG B C B

COAL/OIL-CONDENSATE RECOVERY ENG B C B

COAL/OIL-LUBE OIL SYSTEM ENG B C B

COAL/OIL-BOILER CIRCULATION ENG B C B

COAL/OIL-ASH/FGD PUMPS ENG A C A

COAL/OIL-AUXILIARY SERVICE STD C C C

Characteristics of Identified Applications

ENG = engineered STE = standardSPE = special purposeClients A = over 500, B = 50-500, C = under 50Size A = Large, B = Medium, C = SmallContract A = over £500,000, B = £250-500,000, C = under £250,000




POWER-COMBINED CYCLE GAS GAS-FEED WATER ENG A C A

GAS-CIRCULATION ENG A C A

GAS-COOLING WATER ENG A C A

GAS-CIRCULATORS STD B C B

GAS-AUXILIARY SERVICE STD C C A

POWER-HYDROELECTRIC HYDRO-MAIN PUMPS STD B C B

HYDRO-OTHER PUMPS STD C C C

POWER-NUCLEAR NUCLEAR-PRIMARY COOLANT ENG A C A

NUCLEAR-COOLING WATER ENG A C A

NUCLEAR-REACTOR BOILER FEED ENG A C A

NUCLEAR-SAFEGUARD & ASSOCIATED SPE C C A

NUCLEAR-AUXILIARY SERVICE STD C C A

PULP & PAPER CHEMICAL DOSING SPE C C C

LIQUOR STD B C B

PULP & PAPER STOCK ENG A C A

CONDENSATE STD B C B

FAN STD A C A

WOOD CHIP STD B C B


UTILITY STD C C C

METAL MANUFACTURE DESCALING/MILL SCALE/FLUSHING STD B C B

CIRCULATING WATER STD B C B

WATER TREATMENT STD C C C


UTILITY STD C C C

Characteristics of Identified Applications - continued





FOOD HYGIENIC SPE C B C

OTHER STD C B C

DRINK HYGIENIC SPE C B C

OTHER STD C B C

PHARMACEUTICALS HYGIENIC SPE C B C

OTHER STD C B C

MARINE PROPULSION SPE C C C

BILGE STD B C B

BALLAST STD B C B

FIRE FIGHTING STD B C B

OTHER SHIP PUMPS STD B C B

DOCK DEWATERING STD C C C

MINERAL MINING/PROCESSING DEWATERING STD C B C

MINE DRAINAGE STD A B A

DREDGE STD C B C

GRAVEL STD C B C

SLURRY STD B B B

JETTING STD C B C

SPECIAL PURPOSE SPE C A C

WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR STD A C A

SEWERAGE SEWERAGE STD B C B

BUILDING SERVICES HEATING/VENT/AIR COND INDUSTRIAL STD C A C

HEATING/VENT/AIR COND DOMESTIC STD C A C

CONSTRUCTION DEWATERING STD C A C

OTHER INDUSTRIES CHEMICAL PROCESS STD B C B

Characteristics of Identified Applications - continued




Other columns in the table are entitled ‘size’, ‘clients’ and ’contract’. These

are graded A, B or C according to the criteria given in the footnote to the table.

‘Size’ refers to the output capacity of the pump. ‘Clients’ indicates whether

there are a large number of potential customers in an application. ‘Contract’

refers to the typical size of a major pump contract. These three parameters

have a fundamental effect on marketing methods and the nature of

competition.

Engineered Pumps

Engineered pumps are generally of large size, and built to a high

specification. On the specification side, conformity with API 610 is judged to

place pumps in the ‘engineered’ category. Oil refinery process pumps are

included for that reason, rather than because of size. The main other end uses

employing engineered pumps are oil and gas production and power

generation. A characteristic of the market for engineered pumps is that major

contracts are £ multi-million. There are a relatively small number of clients in

the major areas of application, whether these are oil companies or power

generation plant operators.



Standard Pumps

The main characteristic of standard pumps is that they are produced in

large numbers at relatively low unit cost. Size ranges are wide, from small

to medium and large. Modern computer-aided manufacturing techniques

are employed to maximise economies of scale. Within the category there

are wide ranges of materials, from cast iron to stainless steel and exotic

alloys. Standard pumps may be ‘standard’ for particular applications, so

that submersible pumps can be thought of as standard to the water supply

application, rotary lobe pumps are standard for food processing, although

both types of pump have applications outside these major areas.

The classification of pumps as ‘standard’ can change over time. For

example, circulating pumps might have been thought of as special purpose

thirty years ago. The growth of domestic central heating provided a market

that mass production methods could supply effectively. Conversely,

standard pumps might be used for a particular application, but give way to

the development of special purpose pumps, where the greater cost can be

justified on the grounds of efficiency.



Standard pumps are used in all applications. The number of clients in a

particular application can be relatively few (e.g. oil and gas, power

generation), or vast, as in the case of heating, ventilating and air

conditioning. The average value of major contracts is much smaller than for

engineered pumps, but can be substantial for large chemical or food

processing plants.

Special Purpose Pumps

Special purpose pumps are required where standard pumps cannot provide

an efficient solution. They are produced in relatively small numbers by

specialist companies and command a price premium over standard pumps.

Manufacturers of special purpose pumps could provide standard pumps, but

because they cannot achieve the same economies of scale as the specialist

standard pump manufacturers, they cannot compete on price grounds.

Manufacturers of special purpose pumps usually have a large number of

customers. This is because there are applications for their products across

all end uses. An additional factor is that as process plants become smaller

(and so more numerous), their products become more diversified and

require specialist production techniques.



Average values of typical major contracts are relatively small. Relatively

high marketing costs exist because of the need to service a large number of

clients. This encourages special purpose pump manufacturers to add value

by supplying systems, rather than bare pumps. Examples of applications for

special purpose pumps are dosing, metering, handling mixtures of gases and

liquids, spraying chemicals etc.

Composition of Demand: Engineered, Standard and Special Purpose Pumps

The distinction between these three broad groups is of interest because it is

highly relevant to the market segmentation faced by companies producing

pumps with different technologies. The chart below shows the percent

breakdown of the world market. Engineered accounted for 20% , special

purpose pumps 15% and standard pumps 65% .

Engin-eered20%

Special15%Standard

65%



Market Sizes for Engineered Pumps

The chart below shows market sizes for engineered pumps The major

markets are in oil and gas production, oil refining and power generation.

Market Size, Average 2013, Engineered Pumps, $m current prices

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Oil & Gas-Onshore

Oil & Gas-Offshore

Oil Refining

Coal/Oil Power Gen

Nuclear Power Gen

Gas/Cogen PowerGen

Pulp & Paper



Market Sizes for Standard Pumps

Standard pumps are used across virtually all end uses. The largest are

municipal water/wastewater, other industry, domestic and mining.

Market Size, Average 2013, Standard Pumps, $m current prices

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

Municipal Water/Wastewater

Other Industry

Domestic

Mining

Building Services

Basic Chemicals

Construction Dewatering

Metal Manfacture

Food

Marine

Oil Refining

Other Chemicals

Pulp & Paper

Oil & Gas-Onshore

Hydro Power Gen

Oil & Gas-Offshore

Drink

Coal/Oil Power Gen

Gas/Cogen Power Gen

Pharmaceuticals

Biofuels

Nuclear Power Gen



Market Sizes for Special Purpose Pumps

Special purpose pumps are used in industries where mixing, blending,

dosing etc requirements are significant. The largest markets are in other

industry, chemicals, food and drink and water/wastewater,

Market Size, Average 2013, Special Purpose Pumps, $m current prices

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Other Industry

Other Chemicals

Basic Chemicals

Food

Municipal Water/Wastewater

Drink

Oil & Gas-Onshore

Pharmaceuticals

Oil Refining

Oil & Gas-Offshore

Pulp & Paper

Biofuels

Metal Manfacture

Nuclear Power Gen

Marine

Coal/Oil Power Gen

Gas/Cogen Power Gen



OIL & GAS PRODUCTION AND REFINING

Oil, Gas, Refining by 63 Countries

Rankings for the market for complete pumps are shown in the table on the

next page. The US is by far the largest market, followed by China & Russia.

Market size is influenced by the cost of production. Saudi Arabia has the

lowest costs and this is reflected in a relatively low market size, given the

scale of oil production. Other factors are the inclusion of relatively high cost

LNG in results for certain countries.



Pump Market in Oil, Gas, Refining - Ranking by 63 Countries

$ million current prices, 2010 exchange rates or CAGR % Growth Rates

$M 2013 CAGR%2013-18

$M 2013 CAGR% 2013-18

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EAST contNorway 110 1.1 South Africa 83 2.2United Kingdom 94 6.2 Oman 64 7.1Germany 47 1.0 Tunisia 36 7.1Spain 38 -18.0 Kuwait 34 6.1Austria 36 6.8 Turkey 21 6.2Italy 34 -0.1 Bahrein 19 8.5France 34 3.4 Syria 2 -2.0Denmark 31 8.9Netherlands 28 -2.6Sweden 14 7.3Belgium 11 8.0Portugal 8 8.7 ASIAIreland 5 7.4Greece 5 5.4 China 768 1.6Finland 4 3.8 India 366 2.6Switzerland 3 16.5 Australia 341 13.8

Malaysia 238 5.4EAST EUROPE Indonesia 224 3.7

Thailand 118 9.7Russia 485 6.0 Singapore 87 7.1Romania 42 5.6 Vietnam 69 8.1Hungary 39 5.2 Japan 68 -6.6Poland 38 6.8 Korea - South 47 -0.8Czech Republic 11 7.5 Philippines 44 7.5Bulgaria 5 6.3 Taiwan 29 1.8


New Zealand 1 7.6Saudi Arabia 583 7.2UAE 550 9.8Iraq 255 6.5 AMERICAQatar 196 9.5Iran 169 4.8 United States 1466 9.9Nigeria 126 2.4 Brazil 334 7.5Algeria 115 7.8 Mexico 210 7.6Libya 101 2.8 Canada 181 8.9Egypt 85 -5.3 Colombia 133 6.7

Venezuela 45 10.4Argentina 41 9.0Chile 7 4.7



Oil and Gas Production

We sub-divide the market into offshore and onshore. Results by world region

and application (annual average 2013-2015) are shown on Pages IV 19 and

IV 20 respectively.

Regional demand is determined by the location of crude oil supplies. The

most important areas are USA/Canada, Middle East, Latin America and West

Europe.

Note that figures for Africa exclude offshore West Africa

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Middle East

USA/Canada

Pacific Rim

Latin America

Other Asia

China

Africa

India

Russia

West Europe

Other East Europe

Japan

Oil & Gas,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Oil & Gas Production - market change 2013-2018

The chart below shows that we expect the largest increases in the demand for

pumps will arise in the Middle East and US. Note that figures for Other East

Europe do not include Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan, where demand is known to

be growing rapidly. The countries included in the figures for Africa exclude

offshore Angola and Equatorial Guinea.

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Oil & Gas, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million current prices



ONSHORE OIL/GAS REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates

Annual average 2013-2015

Main oil line

Metering/dosing

Fire pumps

Injection pumps

Gas scrubbing

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 4.4 0.4 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.7 8.4Other West Europe 27.4 2.8 10.7 5.4 2.8 4.0 52.9

Russia 124.4 12.0 47.8 23.9 12.0 19.2 239.2Other East Europe 46.4 4.4 17.8 8.8 4.4 7.0 89.4

Africa 188.3 18.3 72.4 36.1 18.3 28.9 362.1Middle East 706.4 68.3 271.4 135.8 68.3 109.1 1359.5

China 181.9 17.6 69.9 35.0 17.6 28.0 350.0India 26.5 2.6 10.2 5.0 2.6 4.1 51.2Japan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Pacific Rim 163.7 15.8 63.1 31.3 15.8 25.1 314.7Other Asia 120.1 11.6 46.1 22.9 11.6 18.4 230.6

USA/Canada 461.4 44.5 177.4 88.8 44.5 71.0 887.7Latin America 156.3 15.3 60.2 30.1 15.3 24.2 300.6

World 2207.4 213.5 848.8 423.8 213.5 339.7 4246.4



OFFSHORE OIL/GAS REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates


** n.b countries covered exclude Caspian Sea area

* n.b. excludes offshore African countries

Mainoil line

Metering/dosing

Firepumps

Injectionpumps

Sea water lift

Gas scrubbing

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other West Europe 38.2 9.6 47.5 19.0 47.5 5.6 22.7 189.8

Russia 6.9 1.8 8.7 3.5 8.7 1.0 4.0 34.5Other East Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Africa 19.7 4.9 24.7 9.8 24.7 3.0 11.9 98.9Middle East 171.3 42.9 214.1 85.3 214.1 25.7 102.8 855.9

China 9.5 2.4 11.9 4.7 11.9 1.5 5.7 47.7India 54.7 13.7 68.4 27.4 68.4 8.3 32.9 273.7Japan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Pacific Rim 73.3 18.8 91.9 36.4 91.9 10.8 43.9 366.0Other Asia 20.2 5.1 25.3 10.2 25.3 3.1 12.1 101.0

USA/Canada 127.0 31.7 158.7 63.5 158.7 19.1 76.0 634.8Latin America 46.1 11.6 57.6 23.0 57.6 7.0 27.6 230.2

World 566.8 142.6 708.9 282.6 708.9 85.1 339.6 2832.4



Oil Refining

There are many factors influencing the market for pumps in oil refining.

Traditionally, industrialised countries have imported crude oil and refined it

themselves. Developing countries with oil resources now wish to expand

capacity to add value to their oil exports. Until recently pump demand in the

industrial countries was also influenced strongly by continuous upgrading of

refining capacity and by new environmental legislation. The chart below shows

the pattern of world demand.

The breakdown by application is given in the table on Page IV 23.

0 100 200 300 400 500

China

Middle East

Pacific Rim

Latin America

USA/Canada

Russia

West Europe

Africa

India

Other East Europe

Japan

Other Asia

Oil Refining,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Oil Refining - Market Change 2013-2018

Africa, Middle East, Pacific Rim and Latin America continue to expand

capacity. The figures for China reflect lower invesment after very rapid

growth in recent years.

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OIL REFINING REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates


Refinery process Watercirculating

Special purpose Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 10.5 1.8 2.3 3.0 17.5Other West Europe 95.0 15.8 20.5 27.0 158.2

Russia 146.5 24.4 31.7 41.6 244.0Other East Europe 57.2 9.5 12.3 16.3 95.4

Africa 48.9 8.2 10.6 13.9 81.5Middle East 194.9 32.5 42.3 55.4 324.9

China 360.6 60.1 78.1 102.4 601.1India 151.8 25.3 32.9 43.1 252.9Japan 24.7 4.1 5.3 7.0 41.2Pacific Rim 181.7 30.4 39.3 51.6 302.9Other Asia 10.1 1.6 2.2 2.8 17.0

USA/Canada 102.6 17.1 22.2 29.1 170.9Latin America 195.3 32.7 42.3 55.4 325.6

World 1579.9 263.6 342.0 448.6 2633.1



CHEMICAL INDUSTRY

It is important to make a clear distinction between basic chemicals and ‘other’

chemicals. Basic chemicals consist of large scale organic and inorganic plants.

‘Other’ chemicals consist of all other chemical plants, including

pharmaceuticals, dyestuffs, agrochemicals, synthetic resins, paints, synthetic

rubber, industrial gases etc.

The two sectors have major differences in terms of the number of companies

involved, underlying investment trends and pump requirements. Basic

chemicals are subject to greater economic cycles than downstream chemicals

because they experience wide fluctuations in commodity prices and because

the industry is more exposed to international competition.

The world pattern of investment between basic chemicals and ‘other’

chemicals is also very different. Demand for basic chemicals in the Western

industrialised world has reached saturation but demand for certain types of

other chemicals continues to grow. In the developing industrialised countries

the first priority has to be the growth of basic chemicals capacity, before

downstream plants can be established.



0

50

100

150

200

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Advanced Developing

Chemical Industry - World Capital Expenditure

The table below shows capital expenditure, split between advanced and

developing countries. Developing countries investment exceeded the figures

for advanced countries in year 2001, and since then the gap has

systematically growth larger. Over the forecast period, growth in the

advanced countries is partly explained by the developmnet of shale gas as a

low-cost feedstock in USA and Canada.

World Chemical Industry Capital Expenditure - $ billions

Source: National Statistica Offices, EIF estimates



Chemical Industry Ranking by 63 Countries

Rankings by market size for complete pumps in the chemical industry are

shown in the table on the next page.

China, Germany and the USA are clear leaders. Saudi Arabia, Iran and UAE

are large markets in Africa & Middle East. Other large markets in Asia are

found in South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. In Europe, excluding Germany,

the leading markets are in Russia, France, Switzerland and the UK



Pump Market in Chemicals - Ranking by 63 Countries


$M 2013 CAGR%2013-18

$M 2013 CAGR% 2013-18


Germany 406 8.2 Libya 8 1.2Switzerland 76 6.9 Morocco 7 5.1France 56 7.0 Oman 6 2.2Italy 51 8.0 Iraq 4 9.7United Kingdom 44 7.7 Tunisia 3 3.2Denmark 42 6.0 Syria 3 1.6Netherlands 41 6.5 Nigeria 2 3.7Spain 36 7.7 Qatar 1 13.2Belgium 19 7.0 Bahrein 1 6.6Austria 18 6.8Sweden 15 7.7Ireland 15 6.6 ASIAPortugal 4 10.0Greece 4 5.3 China 1324 7.3Finland 4 8.2 Japan 196 4.4Norway 3 6.9 Korea - South 144 7.7

India 126 7.0EAST EUROPE Indonesia 73 5.1

Thailand 68 7.7Russia 99 4.8 Taiwan 55 1.3Poland 26 6.1 Singapore 42 6.4Hungary 25 6.4 Malaysia 37 7.9Czech Republic 8 10.6 Philippines 20 7.3Bulgaria 7 6.8 Australia 19 1.9Romania 6 4.2 Vietnam 15 5.3


New Zealand 6 7.1Saudi Arabia 244 9.1UAE 115 4.4Iran 60 3.6 AMERICATurkey 33 7.3Kuwait 26 6.6 United States 345 8.5Israel 23 6.3 Brazil 96 6.7Egypt 19 -4.0 Venezuela 49 0.2South Africa 13 3.4 Canada 40 6.3Algeria 10 6.5 Mexico 29 7.1

Chile 21 4.6Argentina 17 4.9



Basic Chemicals

The chart below shows that the largest markets are in China, West Europe,

Pacific Rim, Middle East and US/Canada.

The breakdown by application is shown on Page IV 30.

0 200 400 600 800

China

West Europe

Pacific Rim

Middle East

USA/Canada

Japan

Latin America

Russia

India

Other East Europe

Africa

Other Asia

Basic Chemicals,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Basic Chemicals - Market change 2013-2018

The chart below shows that the largest increases in demand are expected in

China, West Europe and US/Canada..

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BASIC CHEMICALS - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates


Chemicalprocess

Metering/dosing

Specialpurpose

Water/Wastewater

Total






World 1621.0 258.1 499.7 118.2 2496.7



Other Chemicals

The chart below shows that the largest markets are in China, West Europe,

Middle East, Pacific Rim and US/Canada.

The demand for products of 'other' chemicals is significantly dependent on

high living standards - e.g. cosmetics, toiletries etc. Other Chemicals is a

particularly large consumer of rotary pumps. The breakdown by application

is shown on Page IV 33.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

China

West Europe

Middle East

Pacific Rim

USA/Canada

Latin America

India

Japan

Russia

Other East Europe

Africa

Other Asia

Other Chemicals,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Other Chemicals - market change 2013-2018

The chart below shows that the largest increases in demand are expected

in China, West Europe and the Middle East.

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Other Chemicals, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million current



OTHER CHEMICALS - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates


Chemicalprocess

Metering/dosing

Special purpose

Water/Wastewater

Total






World 422.1 184.8 542.6 56.6 1205.1



POWER GENERATION

Power generation is a large user of pumps for water cooling and transfer and

for high temperature and pressure applications. Plant technology has a major

bearing on pump usage, so it is necessary to sub-divide investment activity in

order to provide credible market forecasts.

We sub-divide pump requirements for power generation into:

a)coal/oil fired

b)combined cycle, gas turbine, cogeneration

c)nuclear

d)hydroelectric

Power generation for desalination (mainly concentrated in the Middle East)

is included in combined cycle, gas turbine, cogeneration.

Rankings of Complete Pump Market Size by 63 countries

The table on the next page shows rankings by market size in 2013. In Asia

the leading markets are China, Japan, India, and South Korea. In America the

US and Brazil lead. In West Europe the leaders are Germany, France, Italy

and the UK. Leading markets in East Europe are Russia and Poland. Markets

in Africa & Middle East are led by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt.



Pump Market in Power Generation - Ranking by 63 Countries


$M 2013 CAGR%2013-18

$M 2013 CAGR% 2013-18


Germany 213 0.0 Kuwait 3 4.6France 79 2.1 Iran 3 3.0United Kingdom 52 21.1 Libya 2 2.7Italy 33 3.6 Bahrein 2 3.3Denmark 31 3.7 Tunisia 1 4.6Austria 28 4.8 Israel 1 -3.0Netherlands 25 2.6 Iraq 1 1.9Spain 23 2.5Sweden 13 3.8Finland 13 3.0Portugal 11 6.2Norway 9 6.5 ASIABelgium 9 2.0Switzerland 7 12.4 China 770 9.5Greece 7 0.3 India 218 7.9Ireland 2 4.7 Japan 127 8.4

Korea - South 115 -3.1EAST EUROPE Australia 71 -1.7

Thailand 46 3.6Russia 238 9.9 Indonesia 41 1.0Poland 21 2.8 Singapore 39 2.5Czech Republic 13 4.9 Vietnam 23 6.1Romania 11 3.7 Pakistan 23 3.5Bulgaria 5 12.3 Philippines 20 2.8Hungary 4 4.6 Hong Kong 20 3.1

Taiwan 18 7.6AFRICA/MID. EAST Malaysia 6 4.6

New Zealand 2 4.6Saudi Arabia 56 4.8Turkey 42 7.5Egypt 21 -6.7 AMERICAUAE 17 32.8Nigeria 12 2.8 United States 152 0.8Syria 8 -6.3 Mexico 84 2.9South Africa 5 -1.6 Brazil 73 3.7Morocco 5 2.5 Canada 56 2.1Algeria 5 2.8 Colombia 31 3.1

Venezuela 27 -3.1Argentina 13 2.7Chile 5 2.6



Power Generation - Market Size

Requirements by power type, application and world region are tabulated on

Pages IV 38 to IV 41 respectively. Overall market sizes for power generation

are shown in the chart below. China is the leader, followed by West Europe,

Pacific Rim, Russia and and Latin America.

0 200 400 600 800 1000

China

West Europe

Pacific Rim

Russia

Latin America

India

USA/Canada

Middle East

Japan

Other Asia

Other East Europe

Africa

Power Generation,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Power Generation - change in market size 2013-2018

The main growth areas are China, Russia and West Europe.

The massive increase in investment in renewables in West Europe reduces

the demand for pumps. Low gas prices in the USA have led to an increase in

the market share of gas-fired power plants .

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t

China

India

Japa

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Pacific

Rim

Other

Asia

USA/Can

ada

Latin

Am

erica

Power Generation, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million current



COAL/OIL FIRED POWER GENERATION REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION

$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates


Boiler feed-100%

Boiler feed-50%

Cooling water

Booster Condensaterecovery

Lube oil system

Boilercirculating

Ash/fgdpumps

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 21.1 5.4 5.4 5.0 7.1 5.8 5.0 11.1 19.2 100.9Other WestEurope

25.0 6.3 6.3 5.9 9.2 7.5 5.9 13.3 22.7 118.7

Russia 19.2 4.7 4.7 4.7 6.4 5.3 4.7 10.0 17.2 91.5

Other East Europe 5.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.6 3.2 5.1 27.7

Africa 5.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.5 2.8 4.8 24.1

Middle East 2.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.2 2.0 10.8

China 57.2 14.7 14.7 13.6 19.1 15.8 13.6 29.9 51.7 272.9India 28.1 7.2 7.2 6.7 9.4 7.8 6.7 14.7 25.4 133.2

Japan 6.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.7 1.6 3.3 5.7 30.4

Pacific Rim 17.8 4.7 4.7 4.2 6.3 5.0 4.2 9.2 15.7 82.9

Other Asia 11.7 3.1 3.1 2.9 4.0 3.3 2.9 6.4 10.8 55.9

USA/Canada 8.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.7 2.3 1.9 4.4 7.4 38.8

Latin America 28.8 7.5 7.5 7.4 9.9 8.6 7.4 14.9 26.3 139.2

World 236.2 61.2 61.2 57.4 80.6 67.0 57.4 124.3 213.9 1127.1



GAS TURBINE/COMBINED CYCLE/COGENERATION REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION



Boiler feed Watercirculation

Condensaterecovery

Coolingwater

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 28.9 22.9 11.7 10.5 41.5 115.4Other West Europe 25.9 21.5 10.8 9.3 36.5 103.4

Russia 5.2 4.1 2.3 1.9 8.0 21.7Other East Europe 3.9 3.2 1.8 2.0 5.4 15.5

Africa 8.9 7.0 3.7 3.4 11.8 33.9Middle East 20.2 16.3 8.6 7.5 29.3 80.9

China 17.3 13.8 6.9 6.3 24.9 69.2India 13.6 10.7 5.4 4.9 19.5 54.3Japan 11.1 8.8 4.5 4.0 16.0 44.3Pacific Rim 35.4 27.6 15.1 13.6 50.3 141.9Other Asia 6.4 5.0 2.8 2.4 9.2 25.2

USA/Canada 23.4 18.5 9.4 8.7 33.6 93.7Latin America 8.2 6.5 3.6 3.2 11.5 33.0

World 208.3 166.0 86.6 77.8 297.5 832.2



NUCLEAR POWER REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION



Primarycoolant

Coolingwater

Reactorboiler feed

Safeguard Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 2.7 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 8.0

Other West Europe 31.8 11.2 18.6 16.6 15.3 93.1

Russia 53.5 19.0 31.0 27.6 25.9 157.1

Other East Europe 3.7 1.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 11.0

Africa 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8

Middle East 6.7 2.4 3.9 3.5 3.3 19.7

China 122.3 43.3 70.9 63.1 59.2 358.7

India 19.2 6.8 11.2 9.9 9.3 55.2

Japan 15.3 5.4 8.9 7.9 7.4 45.0

Pacific Rim 22.5 8.0 13.0 11.6 10.9 65.9

Other Asia 1.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 4.0

USA/Canada 16.0 5.7 9.3 8.3 7.7 46.7

Latin America 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.6

World 296.3 105.1 172.2 153.4 143.6 867.8

* New UAE reactors begin after this period



HYDROELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATIONS$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates


$ million

Germany 10.2

Other West Europe 37.3

Russia 14.6

Other East Europe 3.8

Africa 6.2

Middle East 36.8

China 149.7

India 24.0

Japan 13.4

Pacific Rim 38.2

Other Asia 7.8

USA/Canada 13.3

Latin America 85.3

World 440.6



WATER & WASTEWATER TREATMENT

Previous issues of this report referred to the end use 'water and sewage', which

actually related to municipal water and wastewater treatment. Industrial water/

wastewater treatment was (and continues to be) included in the market by the

different end use industries.

We have reclassified some applications by end use industry so that industrial

water/wastewater is better defined, and we also show industrial water/

wastewater (summed across end use industries) as a sub-total in the individual

country tables in Part II of this report.

This section of the report summaries results for the sum of industrial and

municipal water/wastewater treatment.



Water and wastewater treatment is a large market for pumps, with radically

different market drivers for the advanced industrial countries compared with

the developing countries.

In the case of the industrial countries there are two major factors. The first is

the importance of environmental legislation in recent years and the second is

the trend towards privatisation of municipal utilities. The latter has also led to

growing horizontal integration of privately owned gas, electricity and water

companies.

Developing countries have radically different market prospects. Those with

natural resources or dynamism which supports the growth of export revenue

are able to afford the cost without entirely having to depend on international

aid: examples are China, Malaysia, India, oil exporters in the Middle East

etc. Many other developing countries, and particularly those in Africa,

depend almost entirely on international aid to support investment in water

and sewerage. In these cases widespread corruption over several decades has

diverted monies intended for investment into private bank accounts outside

the countries in question. This has not only starved these countries of the

necessary investment in the past, it has inhibited the growth of funding in the

short term and this inhibition can be expected to persist over the forecast

period, despite UN initiatives involving targets for water and sanitation. The

recent large increase in food prices have also reduced the international aid

available for water and sewage projects, since food aid takes a larger share of

aid budgets.



Rankings of the complete pump market for Water & Wastewater

(sum of municipal and industrial) in 63 countries

Market size and growth rates are shown in the table on the next page.

In the industrialised world the USA is the largest market, followed by the

Japan and Germany. Japan has had a massive municipal investment

programme in recent years, which is now unwinding since water and

sewerage standards have now reached the levels in other advanced industrial

countries.

China is the largest market in the developing world, followed by India.



Pump Market in Water/Wastewater (industrial + municipal)

Ranking by 63 Countries

$M 2013 CAGR%2013-18

$M 2013 CAGR% 2013-18


Germany 1098 7.4 Kuwait 41 7.1France 495 6.8 Nigeria 36 5.3Italy 406 6.6 Iraq 30 7.5United Kingdom 345 6.8 Qatar 26 10.1Spain 267 6.5 Algeria 21 7.5Netherlands 188 6.5 Tunisia 19 6.7Sweden 180 8.2 Oman 18 7.9Denmark 161 6.7 Syria 8 -0.2Austria 143 6.8 Bahrein 6 11.3Belgium 98 6.3Switzerland 67 7.3Finland 60 6.7 ASIANorway 38 6.0Ireland 33 6.2 China 2811 8.9Portugal 32 8.8 Japan 1040 3.3Greece 18 5.1 India 593 6.4

Australia 470 4.2EAST EUROPE Korea - South 323 7.1

Indonesia 145 6.4Russia 357 5.5 Thailand 131 7.8Poland 129 7.5 Hong Kong 85 7.2Hungary 57 5.5 Taiwan 75 4.2Czech Republic 39 7.5 Vietnam 70 7.3Romania 37 5.2 Singapore 66 6.1Bulgaria 9 9.8 Malaysia 58 6.1

Philippines 23 5.7AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 23 6.4

New Zealand 20 7.8Saudi Arabia 175 6.1UAE 173 4.4Turkey 115 9.8 AMERICAEgypt 85 -3.4South Africa 79 3.1 United States 1749 6.9Israel 59 7.1 Brazil 389 5.1Libya 54 28.2 Canada 307 5.2Morocco 45 6.6 Mexico 157 5.5Iran 44 3.4 Chile 77 6.4

Argentina 48 5.3Colombia 47 6.1Venezuela 28 0.0



Water/Wastewater Treatment - Market Size by World Region

The chart below shows market size (annual average 2013-2015). West Europe

China, USA/Canada and Japan account for a high proportion of the market in

the identified countries. Some developing countries with low income levels

are, in aggregate, a significant market for pumps in water and sewerage

because of the importance of international aid, but many in Africa, Asia and

Latin America are excluded because this report covers the top 63 economies.

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

West Europe

China

USA/Canada

Japan

Pacific Rim

Middle East

Latin America

India

Other Asia

Russia

Africa

Other East Europe

Water & Sewerage,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Market Change for Water/Wastewater Treatment (Industrial plus

Municipal)

The chart below shows market change 2013-2018. The largest increases in

demand are to be found in China, West Europe and US/Canada.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Wes

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Russia

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Water & Sewerage, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million current



WATER & WASTEWATER TREATMENTPUMP REQUIREMENTS - Annual average 2012-2014


TotalIndustrial

MunicipalWater Resources

MunicipalWastewater

TotalMunicipal

TotalWater/

Wastewater






World 9770.3 2198.4 3199.3 5305.1 15075.4



GENERAL INDUSTRY

General industry covers all pump applications outside the industries already

considered and, in most instances, demand in particular countries is closely

related to trends in population and GDP per capita, rather than the

availability of natural resources. However, there are two exceptions: mineral

mining/processing and pulp and paper, because the availability of natural

resources is clearly important in these instances.

In this section we consider markets in the following end use industries:

Mining

Pulp & Paper

Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals

Metal Manufacture

Marine

Building Services


Other Industry (includes agriculture, coal mining, engineering & vehicles,

textiles, building materials, other manufacturing)

Domestic



Ranking of the Market Size for Complete Pumps in General Industry

for 63 Countries

The table on the next page shows that the largest markets are in the major

industrial countries. China, South Korea, India, Russia and Brazil also rank

high.



Pump Market in General Industry - Ranking by 63 Countries


$M 2013 CAGR%2013-18

$M 2013 CAGR% 2013-18

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EAST cont

Germany 1909 6.4 Algeria 33 7.7France 690 6.9 Tunisia 31 5.1Italy 589 6.6 Nigeria 31 4.7United Kingdom 387 6.6 Iraq 23 10.2Spain 330 6.9 Oman 21 8.0Sweden 318 6.9 Libya 18 1.0Netherlands 270 6.6 Syria 14 0.4Denmark 246 6.7 Bahrein 8 6.8Austria 227 6.4 Qatar 6 3.5Belgium 144 6.8Switzerland 105 6.7Finland 91 6.4 ASIAPortugal 52 7.7Norway 52 7.4 China 4726 8.7Ireland 50 6.3 Japan 1596 5.1Greece 42 4.7 Australia 845 3.5

India 791 4.8EAST EUROPE Korea - South 595 8.6

Indonesia 226 6.0Russia 448 6.0 Hong Kong 185 7.4Poland 177 6.7 Thailand 142 7.8Hungary 61 6.1 Vietnam 120 8.4Romania 45 4.8 Taiwan 107 1.2Czech Republic 44 8.3 Singapore 69 6.9Bulgaria 8 7.7 Malaysia 64 6.7

New Zealand 31 7.7AFRICA/MID. EAST Pakistan 19 6.5

Philippines 15 7.5UAE 274 3.6Turkey 204 7.2South Africa 148 5.4 AMERICAEgypt 115 -3.1Saudi Arabia 108 9.2 United States 2204 7.2Israel 100 7.0 Brazil 646 6.2Morocco 84 6.7 Canada 583 6.0Kuwait 55 6.2 Mexico 201 6.9Iran 53 4.3 Chile 133 6.2

Colombia 46 6.3Argentina 45 5.4Venezuela 26 -0.5



Mining, excluding Oil & Gas

We have extended the coverage of mining, compared with previous

reports, to cover all mining and quarrying, excluding oil and gas.

The pattern of world demand for pumps, shown in the chart below, is

determined mainly by the availability of natural resources. China,

Other Asia (mainly Australia) and Latin America are important for this

reason. Note that our 63 countries exclude some significant producers in

Africa and Latin America.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Other Asia

China

Latin America

USA/Canada

Russia

West Europe

Africa

India

Middle East

Other East Europe

Pacific Rim

Japan

Mining,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



World Mining Capital Expenditure

Capital expenditure by the top 15 mining companies (estimated to account for around 75% of

world mining) is shown in the table below for this year’s estimate, compared with last year’s

figures. Last year we overestimated expenditure for 2012, since original capital expenditure

plans were cut back by more than expected following the realisation that slower growth in

China is bound to have a major impact on its imports of mining products - reflected by a sharp

fall in commodity prices. Also, last year we were too optimistic about the speed of recovery

in mining capital expenditure from 2014 onwards.

This year we expect mining capital expenditure to fall 2013-15 before recovering 2016-18.

Capital Expenditure by the Top 15 Mining Companies - $ million

Source: Reports and Accounts of Mining Companies, IMF, EIF estimates.Includes Anglo American, BHP, Norilisk Nickel, Vale, Antofgasta, Kazakhyms, Newmont, Xstrata, ENRC, Rio Tinto, Grupo Mexico, Freeport-McMoran,Codelco, Newcrest, Potash Corp

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

This Year Last Year



Mining - change in market size 2013-2018

The chart below shows the importance of China, USA/Canada and Latin

America for increases in demand.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Wes

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Russia

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ada

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Mining, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million current prices



MININGPUMP REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION



Drainage Gravel/dredge

Slurry Jetting Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 16.5 7.2 11.3 9.9 41.7 86.0

Other WestEurope

41.3 18.5 26.2 24.8 98.4 206.6

Russia 75.7 30.2 47.8 43.8 181.1 377.6

Other EastEurope

16.5 6.2 10.6 9.4 41.6 83.1

Africa 54.8 21.7 32.4 31.0 131.5 271.5

Middle East 26.2 10.5 17.3 17.6 67.3 136.0

China 112.7 44.7 70.0 66.1 271.1 564.5

India 25.4 10.1 15.7 14.9 61.0 127.3

Japan 2.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 4.3 8.6

Pacific Rim 14.4 7.5 10.4 9.8 35.1 73.6

Other Asia 130.5 51.8 79.6 75.7 312.6 650.2

USA/Canada 74.8 29.2 46.2 43.6 180.5 374.9

Latin America 119.3 49.6 74.2 70.4 287.2 601.1

World 710.4 287.5 442.5 417.7 1713.5 3561.0



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

World Pulp & Paper Capex - $ billion

World Pulp & Paper Capital Expenditure

The table below shows world capital expendutre on pulp and paper. The

average annual compund growth 2000-18 is estimated at 2.8% per year.

There were significant recessions in 2002/3 and 2009/10.

Virtually all of the growth from 2010 onwards is concentrated in developing

countries.

Source: EIF estimates



Pulp and Paper

Although markets for pulp are predominantly in world regions where natural

resources are concentrated, i.e. Scandinavia, USA/Canada, demand for pumps

for paper production is spread across all industrialised countries. This is

reflected in the chart below, which shows average market size 2013-2015.

Page IV 59 shows the breakdown by application (average 2013-2015)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

USA/Canada

China

West Europe

Pacific Rim

Latin America

Japan

India

Other East Europe

Africa

Other Asia

Russia

Middle East

Pulp & Paper,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Pulp & Paper - Market Change 2013-2018

The chart below shows that China, USA/Canada and Pacific Rim are the

largest growth areas.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

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China

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ada

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Pulp & Paper, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million current prices



PUMPS FOR THE PULP & PAPER INDUSTRYBY APPLICATION -Annual average 2013-2015


Metering/dosing

Liquor Stock Specialpurpose

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 1.5 12.5 6.8 4.8 5.3 30.9


Russia 0.4 4.4 2.2 1.8 1.8 10.5


Africa 0.7 5.6 3.2 2.4 2.5 14.2

Middle East 0.5 3.3 2.0 1.4 1.4 8.5

China 6.1 61.4 32.9 23.9 25.5 149.9

India 0.9 10.1 5.4 4.0 4.3 24.6

Japan 2.9 28.6 15.3 11.0 11.9 69.8

Pacific Rim 2.7 25.4 13.6 9.7 10.5 62.0

Other Asia 0.4 4.1 2.3 1.8 1.9 10.2

USA/Canada 3.8 38.8 20.9 15.1 16.1 95.0

Latin America 3.9 34.2 18.5 13.1 14.3 83.5

World 34.0 330.2 178.8 129.2 139.2 809.0



Food, Drink and Pharmaceuticals

Demand is divided between hygienic and other pumps. The total value of

hygienic pumps used by food, drink and pharmaceuticals is estimated at around

$1,250 million, of which hygienic rotary lobe is the most important pump type,

with a world market of around $300 million (exc. parts). The breakdown

between ‘hygienic’ and ‘other’ pumps is given on Page IV 62. West Europe is

shown to be a much larger market that USA/Canada. Although the West

European population is larger, the main explanation is that food processing is

carried out in much larger plants in North America where there are major

economies of scale.

0 200 400 600 800 1000

China

West Europe

USA/Canada

Pacific Rim

India

Japan

Middle East

Latin America

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Africa

Russia

Food/Drink/Pharmaceuticals,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals - Change in Market Size 2013-2018

In absolute terms, most of the growth occurs in China and West Europe.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Wes

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ope

Russia

Other

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ada

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Food/Drink/Pharmaceuticals, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million current prices



PUMPS FOR FOOD, DRINK, PHARMACEUTICALSAnnual average 2013-2015


Hygienic Water/Wastewater

Total Hygienic Water/Wastewater

Total Hygienic Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 54.6 81.7 136.3 58.1 38.4 96.6 16.0 5.3 21.3Other WestEurope

135.9 203.5 339.8 86.5 56.6 142.8 62.7 21.1 83.8

Russia 6.9 10.5 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 1.2 4.6Other EastEurope

11.2 16.7 27.7 8.0 5.1 13.4 1.6 0.6 2.2

Africa 4.7 7.7 11.8 8.3 4.8 12.5 1.2 0.5 1.6Middle East 21.8 31.8 53.7 30.8 21.7 51.5 7.3 2.5 9.8

China 198.5 298.6 497.0 126.9 84.5 211.4 120.9 40.4 161.3India 39.2 59.1 98.3 15.7 10.5 26.2 26.8 8.9 35.8Japan 22.9 34.8 57.7 25.9 17.3 43.2 14.8 4.9 19.8Pacific Rim 38.9 56.3 94.4 25.3 17.0 41.8 28.9 9.8 38.7Other Asia 7.4 10.5 17.7 5.2 3.6 8.3 0.4 0.1 0.5

USA/Canada 36.4 54.9 91.1 31.9 21.4 53.3 36.8 12.3 49.1Latin America 14.0 21.5 35.7 22.8 14.7 37.3 1.4 0.5 1.9

World 592.4 887.5 1478.8 445.4 295.5 738.4 322.1 108.1 430.3

Food Drink Pharmaceuticals



Metal Manufacturing

The chart below shows the largest market sizes (average 2013-2015) are in

China, West Europe, and Japan. China ranks high because the country is the

world's largest steel producer.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

China

West Europe

Japan

India

Latin America

Pacific Rim

USA/Canada

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Middle East

Africa

Russia

Metal Manufacturing,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Metal Manufacturing - Market Change 2013-2018

Industrialisation requires basic infrastructure and then production of a wide

range of metal using products. China is the only real growth area.

Page IV 65 tabulates requirements by application.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

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Africa

Midd

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China

India

Japa

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Pacific

Rim

Other

Asia

USA/Can

ada

Latin

Am

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Metal Manufacturing, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million



METAL MANUFACTURING - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION$ million, current prices, 2010 exchange rates


Descaling/mill scale

Circulating Specialpurpose

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 36.3 12.1 12.1 60.5 121.0

Other West Europe 52.1 17.3 17.3 86.0 172.0

Russia 2.0 0.4 0.4 3.0 6.3

Other East Europe 8.4 2.4 2.4 13.4 26.2

Africa 6.7 2.3 2.3 10.6 21.4

Middle East 7.2 2.2 2.2 11.7 23.1

China 175.6 54.4 56.5 286.6 573.3

India 37.8 12.6 12.6 62.9 125.8

Japan 35.8 11.7 11.7 59.4 118.7

Pacific Rim 27.0 9.4 9.4 45.1 91.0

Other Asia 7.5 2.6 2.6 12.7 25.3

USA/Canada 23.0 7.5 7.5 38.3 76.5

Latin America 33.3 10.9 10.9 55.5 110.4

World 452.7 145.9 148.0 745.9 1490.9



World Shipbuilding Trends

New shipbuilding completions grew rapidly 2005-2010 so that a glut in capacity has driven

down shipping rates. New orders in 2012 were only 50% of the 28 million tonnes reached in

2011. While there is a considerable order backlog, completions in 2012 are expected to fall by

20% compared with 2011. In addition, the price of new ships is expected to fall by 6%, so that

value of completions is expected to be 26% lower in 2012 than in 2011. In 2012 South Korea

is expected to account for 37% of new orders, followed by China with 34% and Japan with

12%.

The above figures exclude military shipbuilding which is particularly important in the US and

China. Note that new build and maintenance each account for around 50% of the annual

market for new equipment.

The chart below shows that we expect a marked fall in new completions in 2013 and a strong

recovery 2015-18. Note that the new build price index tends to move in the same direction

cyclically as completions, so reinforcing the effect of an upswing in demand on value.

New Civil Shipbuilding Completions and the Price Index of New Ship Construction

Source: Korean Shipbuilders Association, Clarkson Research, EIF estimates

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Completions 000 tonnes New Build Price 2010=100



Marine

Marine is divided into ship production and repair and harbours, docks and

canals. Requirements by world region and application are tabulated on Page

IV 69 below.

Market size depends mainly on the production of civil and naval vessels (in

Europe, Japan and USA/Canada) and commercial ships (concentrated in

South Korea, Japan and, most recently, China). China is developing rapidly

for both civil and naval work.

0 50 100 150 200 250

China

Pacific Rim

West Europe

USA/Canada

Middle East

Japan

India

Russia

Latin America

Africa

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Marine,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Marine - Changes in Market Size 2013-2018

Pacific Rim, China and West Europe are the main growth areas. The growth

of capacity in China is expected to exceed growth in all other countries. In

2010 China accounted for over 25% of world civil shipbuilding. In addition,

China is expanding capacity of naval shipbuilding.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

t Eur

ope

Africa

Midd

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t

China

India

Japa

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Pacific

Rim

Other

Asia

USA/Can

ada

Latin

Am

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Marine, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million current prices



MARINE - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION



Propulsion Bilge Ballast Firefighting

Water/Wastewater

Total

Germany 3.4 7.4 3.7 5.1 1.3 20.8


Russia 6.8 14.7 7.3 10.1 2.5 41.3


Africa 4.1 8.6 4.3 5.8 1.5 24.1

Middle East 12.4 26.6 13.3 18.3 4.6 75.2

China 35.1 75.7 37.6 51.9 12.9 213.0

India 6.4 13.8 6.9 9.5 2.3 39.0

Japan 6.2 13.3 6.6 9.2 2.2 37.5

Pacific Rim 27.9 60.1 29.8 41.2 10.3 169.3

Other Asia 1.0 2.1 1.1 1.5 0.3 6.0

USA/Canada 17.2 37.0 18.4 25.4 6.2 104.3

Latin America 5.1 10.9 5.4 7.5 1.8 30.7

World 152.2 327.4 162.9 224.7 55.7 922.5



CONSTRUCTION RELATED AND OTHER INDUSTRIES

This section covers pump requirements for construction related sectors,

i.e. industrial and domestic heating and ventilating and construction

dewatering. Also considered are pump requirements for all other

industries. These include coal mining, agriculture and other

manufacturing.

Building Services

Page IV 71 shows two charts, market size (annual average 2013-2015)

and the change in market size 2013-2018.

The largest markets are in West Europe, China and USA/Canada. These

three world regions are also the most important in terms of the change in

market size, where the figures are strongly influenced by the collapse of

property prices and recession.



0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

West Europe

China

USA/Canada

Japan

Pacific Rim

Middle East

Latin America

India

Africa

Other Asia

Other East Europe

Russia

Building Services,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

t Eur

ope

Africa

Midd

le Eas

t

China

India

Japa

n

Pacific

Rim

Other

Asia

USA/Can

ada

Latin

Am

erica

Building Services, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million current




Pump requirements are closely related to the size of the construction

industry in each country. This is reflected by the chart below, which

shows market size (average for three years 2013-2015).

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

West Europe

China

USA/Canada

Japan

Pacific Rim

Middle East

Latin America

India

Africa

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Russia

Construction,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Market Growth for Construction Dewatering

The chart below shows the forecast change in market size for the period

2013-2018. China, West Europe and US/Canada are the main growth

areas.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

t Eur

ope

Africa

Midd

le Eas

t

China

India

Japa

n

Pacific

Rim

Other

Asia

USA/Can

ada

Latin

Am

erica

Construction, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million current prices



Domestic and Other Pumps

The term ‘domestic’ relates to pumps used in residential property.

The chart below shows annual average market size 2013-2015.

The market for domestic pumps is concentrated in the West Europe,

China, USA/Canada and Japan.

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

West Europe

China

Japan

USA/Canada

Middle East

Pacific Rim

India

Other Asia

Latin America

Other East Europe

Africa

Russia

Domestic,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Market Change for Domestic Pumps and Other Pumps

The chart below shows the change in market size 2013-2018. Growth is

led by West Europe, China, US/Canada and Japan

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

t Eur

ope

Africa

Midd

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t

China

India

Japa

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Pacific

Rim

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Asia

USA/Can

ada

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erica

Domestic, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million current prices



Other Industries

Pump requirements are related to the size of industrial production. This is

reflected by the chart below, which shows that the largest markets are in

China and the industrialised world.

0 500 1000 1500

West Europe

China

USA/Canada

Pacific Rim

Japan

Latin America

Middle East

India

Africa

Other East Europe

Other Asia

Russia

Other Industry,Market Size, Average 2013-15, $million current prices



Market Change for Other Industry

The chart below shows the change in market size 2013-2018. China,

West Europe and USA/Canada outstrip all other countries.

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Wes

t Eur

ope

Russia

Other

Eas

t Eur

ope

Africa

Midd

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t

China

India

Japa

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Rim

Other

Asia

USA/Can

ada

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Other Industry, Market Change: 2013-2018, $million current



CONSTRUCTION RELATED AND OTHER INDUSTRIESPUMP REQUIREMENTS - Annual average 2013-2015


Other Industry Other Industry Other Industry BuildingServices

Domestic ConstructionDewatering

General Processes Water/Wastewater Total Total Total Total

Germany 75.8 292.2 367.9 338.4 487.2 238.6Other West Europe 216.5 836.0 1053.0 405.8 812.5 273.0

Russia 3.5 12.9 16.4 13.2 15.1 12.0Other East Europe 14.9 57.8 73.0 44.2 40.0 30.9

Africa 19.2 74.7 93.8 75.6 41.5 50.5Middle East 37.2 145.6 183.2 113.0 234.7 82.2

China 205.2 793.4 998.6 505.8 754.8 465.8India 33.3 128.8 162.1 64.0 107.8 55.0Japan 64.1 248.6 312.7 309.0 435.1 233.8Pacific Rim 104.6 402.9 507.2 204.7 140.4 129.6Other Asia 8.7 34.4 43.4 39.6 70.6 26.2

USA/Canada 169.8 655.5 825.2 319.4 400.1 252.1Latin America 47.7 184.5 232.6 108.6 85.4 78.6

World 1000.4 3867.3 4869.2 2541.3 3625.3 1928.3

The World Market for Pumps - Some Changes in Technology - Page V 1


V SOME CHANGES IN TECHNOLOGY

Introduction

In this section we will briefly review some changes in technology which

have a major bearing on the pump market and the extent to which we have

been able to take them into account.

Technological change affects the pump market on both the demand and

supply side. On the demand side changes in technology influence trends

within each major end use industry. On the supply side new pump designs

and new types of ancillary equipment can have an impact on the market.

Demand Side Technological Change

One of the main merits of our approach to forecasting the pump market is

the sub-division by end use industry. For example, we sub-divide oil and gas

between onshore and offshore. Changes in technology have led to new types

of floating offshore platforms, deeper drilling and subsea development

involving multi-phase pumps. Data on the market for multi-phase pumps is

fragmented and at present we do not identify them separately.

There are also some major technological changes affecting the pump



market for onshore oil and gas. We include liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the

onshore category and, although we do not identify LNG separately in this

report, other EIF work has been used to ensure that LNG is properly taken into

account in each of the identified 63 countries.

Supply Side Technological Change

Another major technological development concerning oil and gas is fracking,

which in the US has already unlocked enormous supplies of gas, and,

increasingly oil. Fracking is transforming the US economy but, apart from

Canada, its impact in the rest of the world is minimal at present. Fracking is a

dramatic demonstration of supply side technological change on the pump

market. We take full account of the impact of fracking on the demand for

pumps in oil and gas and chemicals in this report.

Another market segmentation in oil and gas concerns ‘artificial lift’. We do

touch on this topic where ‘injection pumps’ are mentioned in the report but the

subject matter is broader than this. However, available data prevents a fuller

analysis. Oil service companies provide artificial lift using pumps where the

natural oil reservoir pressure is insufficient. We know from examination of

reports and accounts of the major oil service companies that the market for

artificial lift in 2012 was around $11 billion. But this figure includes much

more than the capital cost of pumps, which is probably only around one third

of the total.



A variety of pumps are used for artificial lift. Electro-submersible pumps

(ESP) are the most important, accounting for 46% of the market in 2012,

following by rod lift pumps (nodding donkeys) which account for 31%.

There are indications that in recent years rod lift has improved is market

share at the expense of ESPs.

Finally, a supply side change that will be of growing importance in future

is the development of energy saving intelligent pumps (ESIPs). One

component of this topic is the growing use of variable speed drives Another

is instrumentation that will allow condition monitoring. The growth of

ESIPs will be important in future but at present there is no data to allow any

assessment of its importance.

World Pump Market - Appendix - Page 1


APPENDIX - METHODOLOGY

The flow chart on Page 3 outlines the steps involved.

Historically, pump market estimates are made in two stages. The first stage is

to generate an initial set of pump demand estimates by applying estimated pump

content to fixed investment by 20 separate end use industries. The second stage

involves scaling the initial estimates so that the annual totals are consistent with

apparent pump consumption, calculated from total sales less exports plus

imports. All market sizes given in the report relate to complete pumps,

including prime movers.

Forecasts of the pump market for 2013-2018 are based on regression equations

estimated over the period 2001-2012. Equations are used to link (1) total

investment to GDP and then (2) investment by end use industry to total

investment. The initial forecasts of investment by end use industry are then

modified for special factors. Pump market forecasts are based on regression

equations which link the pump market by end use industry to investment by end

use industry.

Although the composition of demand by application within each end use can be

expected to change over time, we assume the same percentage breakdown from

year to year in the forecasts. This is probably realistic for a five year time

horizon.



The report is intended to show the detailed structural changes in the world

market for pumps by country, end use industry and pump application.

However, despite the detailed nature of the results, we cannot claim complete

coverage owing to data limitations. Errors are believed to be by omission,

rather than a major bias in the size and structure of the markets. For example,

our coverage of projects in mining is partial because there are known to be a

large number of relatively small projects not taken into account. We do not

properly cover some areas where retrofitting is important, eg pumps for

re-injection in the North Sea. On the other hand we do cover the constant

adaptation of oil refineries to meet new product requirements and emission

control. The table below shows our subjective assessment of the reliability of

results; A = 10%, B = 15%, C = up to 20%.

Oil & Gas A Marine C

Oil Refining A Mining B

Basic Chemicals A Pulp & Paper A

Other Chemicals A Water & Sewerage B

Food B Building Services C

Drink B Construction C

Pharmaceuticals B Other Industry C

Power Generation A Domestic C

Iron & Steel C

Non-ferrous Metals C

Reliability of Total Pump Market Estimates by End Use Industry



INVESTMENT FORECASTS

EIF Plant Investment Forecasts for 63Major Countries for 20 End Use

Industries in Each Country

APPLICATION ANALYSIS

EIF Analysis of Requirements forIndustrial Pumps

by End Use and Application

MARKET BY END USE

EIF Estimates for Industrial Pumpsby End Use in 63 Major Countries

MARKET BY APPLICATION

EIF Estimates of Market Size bycountry and application 2013-2018

Harmonisation ofdata on imports ofindustrial pumps

Analysis of Prod-uction, Trade andthe Market based ongovernment data inmajor countries,notably:United StatesGermanyUnited Kingdom

Europump countriesfrom EIF EuropumpMarket Report

METHODOLOGY

EIF new projectdatabase with 3,500projects worldwide,updated annually

EIF database oninvestment by enduse, from companyand governmentstatistics

The World Pump Market 2013-2018 Volume I · Centrifugal Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries...

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