The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.
-
Upload
harriet-johnson -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.
![Page 1: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
The World in 2034:Ethical Conundrums, Challenges,
and Issues
Dallas Philosophers Forum
![Page 2: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Outline
• Investigate exponential growth of computer software and hardware• Review technology trends in
genetics, nanotechnology, robotics, and AI• Explore ethical implications and
challenges of these trends
![Page 3: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Dangers of Predictions
• “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” --Yogi Berra
![Page 4: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Headlines From the Past
• “The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” —Western Union internal memo, 1876
• “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”—president of Royal Society in 1895
![Page 5: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Headlines From the Past (Cont’d)
• “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” --Commissioner of U.S. office of Patents, 1899
• “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” --Harry Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
• “I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers.” —Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM in 1943
![Page 6: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
First Futurist (Arguably)
![Page 7: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Another Futurist
![Page 8: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Technology
• “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” --Arthur C. Clarke
• “Technology is anything invented after you were born.” --Alan Kay
8
![Page 9: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Technology Revolution
Law of accelerating returns:• Linear: 30 steps (1, 2, 3 . . . ) takes us to 30. • Exponential: 30 steps (1, 2, 4, 8 . . .) takes us to
????????????
![Page 10: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Exponential Growth
![Page 11: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
A Story About Chess
Copyright © 2014 International Risk Management Institute, Inc.
![Page 12: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Moore’ Law
Moore’s Law: observation that over the history of computer hardware, the number of transistors of
integrated circuits doubles about every 18-24 months
![Page 13: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Technology’s Impact
• Four Overlapping Revolutions
– Genetics—Human Genome Project
– Nanotechnology
– Robotics
– Artificial Intelligence
![Page 14: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Genetics
![Page 15: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
What is Genetics?
• Genetics is the branch of biology that deals with heredity
• It is the scientific study of how genes control the characteristics of plants and animals
• Nature versus nurture is an outmoded way of thinking
![Page 16: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Genetics (Cont’d)
• Human Genome Project—largest collaborative biological project ever--$3B
• Exponential Factors Involved—cost of DNA sequencing is plummeting
• Personalized Medicine—using person’s DNA map to predict disease and personalize treatment
![Page 17: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Nanotechnology
• “The role of the infinitely small is infinitely large.” --Louis Pasteur—
![Page 18: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
What is Nanotechnology?
• Nanotechnology is the study of manipulating matter on an atomic and molecular scale.
• A nanometer is one billionth of a meter, 100,000 times thinner than strand of normal hair
• Nanometer and a thimble scenario• There are currently over one thousand
manufacturer-identified nanotech products• Nano-materials currently in sunscreen, cosmetics,
surface coatings, and some food products
![Page 19: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Robotics
![Page 20: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
What is Robotics?
• Robotics is the branch of technology that deals with the design, construction, operation, and application of robots, as well as computer systems for their control, sensory feedback, and information processing.
• Can take the place of humans in dangerous environments or manufacturing processes, or resemble humans in appearance.
![Page 21: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Weaknesses of Robots
• Lack strong AI• Lack intuition• Lack creativity• Lack common sense• Lack pattern recognition• Lack consciousness
![Page 22: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Mini Robots for Warehouses
22
![Page 23: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Realistic Possibility—Robots and Man
![Page 24: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Artificial Intelligence
![Page 25: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
What is Artificial Intelligence (AI)?
• AI is the intelligence of machines and the branch of computer science that aims to create it.
• AI textbooks define it as "the study and design of intelligent agents" where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chances of success.
• Founded in 19__ ?????• Impact on symbol analyst jobs in the future
![Page 26: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
AI Yesterday
![Page 27: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
AI Today
![Page 28: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
Watson
• Watson is now going to medical school• Using big data to diagnose and treat
patients• Goal: Watson and doctors as
collaborators
![Page 29: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
Questions for AI (or Siri)
• What is the depth of the Red Sea? (7,254 feet)
• Where is Elvis Buried?
• Why did the chicken cross the road?
• Can a crocodile play basketball?
![Page 30: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30
Applications of These Four Key Technology Trends
• Medicine and Health Care• Transportation• Agriculture• Manufacturing• Housing
![Page 31: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
Medicine of the Future
![Page 32: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32
What Will Medicine Look Like in 2034?
• Longevity medicine--genetics• Nanobots• Robotic techniques• Artificial intelligence• Neuroprosthetics• P4 Medicine– Predictive– Personalized – Preventive– Participatory
![Page 33: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
Medicine: Ethical Issues
–Technology causes costs to rise more rapidly (e.g., robotics in surgery)–Longevity issues: end of life care–Ethical and economic implications of
boosting lifespans–Genetics testing—privacy implications
![Page 34: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
34
Medicine: Ethical Issues
– “Amped” humans: neural implants for “normal people”–Homo sapiens: combination of biological and
non-biological intelligence–More catastrophe cases (e.g., smaller
premature babies surviving, Ebola)--how to ration health care?–Over-treatment & over-diagnosis:advanced
technology
![Page 35: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35
Transportation in 2034
![Page 36: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
36
Transportation in 2034
![Page 37: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
37
Transportation in 2034
• Telematics• Intelligent highways and roads• Vehicle Infrastructure Integration (VII)• Drones—privacy & safety issues• Driverless automobiles and trucks• Way down the road (2090?)—Flying cars
![Page 38: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
38
Transportation: Ethical Implications
• Reduced auto losses (e.g., reduction in drunk driving, collision avoidance systems, telematics)
• Liability for accidents involving autonomous vehicles? Auto manufacturer, developer of autonomous feature, owner of car?
• How will this play out based on the capabilities of the driver? – Disabled drivers– Elderly
![Page 39: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
39
Agriculture in 2034
![Page 40: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
40
Agriculture in 2034
• Wireless sensors to monitor environmental and soil conditions
• Precision Agriculture (less waste)—variable rate technologies
• Mega farms (greater environmental exposures)
• Cloning technologies• Genetic engineering
![Page 41: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
41
Agriculture: Ethical Implications
• Genetically Modified Organisms—health implications
• Cloning technologies—downsides
• Nanotechnology
![Page 42: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
42
Manufacturing in 2034
![Page 43: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
43
Manufacturing in 2034
• Robotics and artificial intelligence
• Molecular nanotechnology
• Individuals transformed into manufacturers through desktop fabricators
![Page 44: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
44
Manufacturing: RM and Insurance Implications
• Who is responsible if robot causes injury? • Challenges with intellectual property--robots• Rise in robotics—loss of “fingertip knowledge”• Nanotechnology—impact on worker’s health and the
environment• Worker and environmental safety versus economic
growth and laissez faire capitalism• Nanoparticles—asbestos of the 21st Century?
![Page 45: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
45
Life at Home in 2034
![Page 46: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
46
Housing in 2034
• Smart homes
• Homes with robots
• Homes with monitoring devices
• RFID tags for personal property
• Green homes
![Page 47: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
47
Smart Home
![Page 48: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
48
Ethical Implications
• Libel via the Internet and Social Media • Problems with Big Data—privacy and dictatorship
of data• Prison Math & Big Data—Can it predict criminal
risk? Can it deliver fair & equal justice?• Desktop fabricators—intellectual property issues• Do we need to re-think the issue of copyrights and
intellectual property?• Desktop fabricators—3D printing of illegal drugs
![Page 49: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
49
Economic and Societal Implications
• Dangers concerning robots• Digital Divide--technology haves and have-
nots—increasing the inequality gap? • Excessive computer monitoring of workers• Computer-assisted arbitrage in stock market
fluctuations• Ethical problems--due to rise in technology
(e.g., salami slicing)
![Page 50: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
50
Salami Slicing
![Page 51: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
51
Economic and Societal Implications
• Loss of blue collar jobs due to stunning growth in technology• Second Machine Age and loss of symbol
analyst jobs• Study of IT ethics as a unique field of its
own• RoboLaw: Laws & regulations far behind
technology
![Page 52: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
52
Growth of Robots & AI: Ethical Implications
• Transhumanism: Will robotics with strong AI be more capable than humans in the distant future?
• Machine learning: Can robots get smarter?• Will robots in the deep future have rights?• Computationalism—is the human mind nothing
more than an advanced computer program?• Does this devalue the human brain?• Differences: human brain and a computer?
![Page 53: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
53
Conclusion
• The world will be shaped by four dynamic technology forces in the next 20 years--genetics, nanotechnology, robotics, and AI.
How will we deal with these inevitable forces?• “The future is clear to me. What I don’t
understand is the present.” --Gerhard Kocher• “I never think of the future—it comes soon
enough.” --Albert Einstein
![Page 54: The World in 2034: Ethical Conundrums, Challenges, and Issues Dallas Philosophers Forum 1.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062315/56649cc55503460f9498fac4/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
54
Q&A Rob Olson, MLIS, CPCU, CRIS, ARM, AAM, ARP
Senior Research AnalystInternational Risk Management Institute
Adjunct Professor at SMU
Adjunct Professor at University of North [email protected]