Trajectory Trends Breakfast

January 2017

The World in 2017

Coping with complexity in a world that craves simplicity

Where are we?

FragmentationThe New MoralityPolarisation

A rising tide and sinking boats

Who has gained from

globalisation?

Incomes are real, PPP adjusted, 2005 DollarsSource: Branko Milanovic, HBR

Fragmented Britain

“That’s your bloody

GDP. Not ours.”

-- anonymous heckler in

Newcastle, June 2016

Rejecting the Status Quo

Percentage of people who

say it is “essential” to live in

a democracy

Source: Yascha Mounk and Roberto Stefan Foa, “The Signs of Democratic Deconsolidation,” Journal of Democracy, 2016

Simplicity > Complexity

Simplicity: Brexit

Source: YouGov, December 2016 / Political Betting

Simplicity: Disintermediation

Simplicity: Gender Diversity

'I think it is damaging to children to introduce

uncertainty into their minds.'

-- Norman Tebbit

‘In attempting to improve the lives of a vanishingly

small minority, we are threatening the sanity of —

and, yes, I’m going to say it — normal children.’

-- Sarah Vine

Source: Daily Mail, December 2016

The World in 2017

Global Risks

Top 10 risks (likelihood)

1. Extreme weather events

2. Large scale involuntary migration

3. Natural disasters

4. Terrorist attacks

5. Data fraud or theft

6. Cyberattacks

7. Illicit trade

8. Man made environmental disasters

9. Interstate conflict

10.Failure of national governance

New International Relations

Eurozone in Crisis?

5%

13%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1970s 2000s

Mean vote share of populist-right

parties in national and European

elections (24 countries)

Source: Adapted from Inglehart and Norris (2016), drawing on Döring and Manow (2016).

Parliaments and government database (ParlGov) ‘Elections’ dataset.

“Europe is screwed.

In the Italian system, the banks say

they are worth 45-50 cents in the

dollar. But the bid price is 20 cents.

If you were to mark them down

they’d be insolvent.”

-- Steve Eisman, November 2016

The UK’s place in the worldWould not want to

live next door to an

immigrant

When jobs are

scarce, employers

should give priority

to nationals

The world today is

a more dangerous

place than it used

to be

High level of

national pride

Feel I have

completely free

choice and control

over the way my

life turns out

Right of political

spectrum

Priority should be

solving own

country's problems,

not global poverty

Think ethnic

diversity enriches

life

UK

USA

France

Italy

Germany

Spain

Sweden

Netherlands

Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2014-15

Emerging Markets

103%

61%58% 56%

53% 52% 51%47% 45% 44%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Growth in Internet Users 2011-2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

% of global GDP held in advanced

and emerging markets

Emerging market and developing economies

Advanced economies

Source: IMF 2016 / GWI 2016

The Consumer Reaction

Fake Authenticity

Non-establishment figures Unmediated access Sovereignty

Craft Artisanal, natural, local ‘Live’ cinema

Career Politicians

Non-existent farms

‘Authentic’ Authenticity

The Death of Deference

Localism

3,511,334

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

01/1

2/2

010

01/0

3/2

011

01/0

6/2

011

01/0

9/2

011

01/1

2/2

011

01/0

3/2

012

01/0

6/2

012

01/0

9/2

012

01/1

2/2

012

01/0

3/2

013

01/0

6/2

013

01/0

9/2

013

01/1

2/2

013

01/0

3/2

014

01/0

6/2

014

01/0

9/2

014

01/1

2/2

014

01/0

3/2

015

01/0

6/2

015

01/0

9/2

015

01/1

2/2

015

01/0

3/2

016

01/0

6/2

016

01/0

9/2

016

Number of switches to a Small or Medium sized energy

supplier, UK

(rolling annual average)

Source: Ofgem, Jan 2017

Escapism: alternate realities & self-care

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Google searches for ‘Self-care’

Source: Google Trends, Jan 2017

Leisure priorities

£98

£88 £86£81

£86

£51 £48 £47 £45£49

£79

£67

£77 £77£69

£-

£20

£40

£60

£80

£100

£120

August September October November December

Leisure spending breakdown

Eating Out Drinking Out Other Leisure

Source: Greene King Leisure Spend Tracker / EY Item Club

Implications

Fragmentation and Polarisation

31%

24%

19%

25%

44%47%

28%

17%

13%

32%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Consistently

conservative

Mostly

conservative

Mixed Mostly liberal Consistently

liberal

Filter Bubbles

% who have hidden, blocked etc some because they disagreed with them

Posts about politics are mostly or always in line with their own views

Source: Pew Research Centre, 2014

Intergenerational conflict

Globalisation: not dead yet

Attitudes towards globalisation

against change in GDP per

person

Source: YouGov/The Economist, World Bank, UN

The world is getting more complex

Digital IdentitiesPredictive MedicineAutomation

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