The World in 2014

Which way is up?

Trajectory Partnership

January 2014

Which way is up?

GLOBAL MEGA-TRENDS

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

World (market exchange rates) USA Japan

Euro area China Eastern Europe

Asia & Australasia (excl Japan) Latin America Middle East & North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

Key global GDP forecasts

Multispeed Global Economy

“The days of investing indiscriminately in EMs and expecting double digit returns are over. There is going to be more volatility going forward and the key for investors is to be able to differentiate the strong and appropriately priced from the vulnerable and inappropriately priced in EMs”.

Rapid development in Emerging Economies

Stagnation in Advanced Economies

Global Income Inequality

Global Population Change

Urbanisation

Economic Migration

A global crisis of legitimacy

UK - crises, cock-ups and cover-ups

With apologies to any companies or institutions not included

Youth Without a Future

Mobile Connectivity

Climate Change

SOCIAL AND CULTURAL TRENDS

Data Privacy and Security

Image: NSA HQ, Fort Mead, Maryland, USA

Biometrics and Quantified Health

Feminism and Women’s Rights

Culture Clashes

day-to-day co-existence of values

generational and gender lines typical

secular versus religious focus

modernity, tradition and values

day-to-day co-existence of values

fragile alliances forged in frustration

inchoate range of issues and objectives

fractured in face of repression

Connectivity - Our Hybrid World

Source: http://www.urbanriver.com/offline-marketing.html

Changing Faces of Reality

THE POST-RECESSIONARY

CONSUMER PSYCHE

Source: Trajectory/Harvard Business Review

The Post-Recession Consumer

The New Morality forces people to reconsider their

ethical concerns

Ostentatious or frivolous spending has fallen out of

favour

Ethical priorities have shifted to boardroom practice, executive pay and

corporate tax culture

Austerity adds another layer of complexity – so simplicity is more valuable than ever

Better off consumers are recognising the wider benefits of thrift, and choosing to save

money when they don’t need to

People are forced to place trust in institutions they might otherwise dislike as a route out of

the crisis

Loyalty to brands has fallen, as consumers become more agile and

less predictable

Individualisation

Citizen Brands Individual Brands

Self Preservation Society

C-Suite Scrutiny

The New Morality

Austerity and Public Finances

Institutional and business malpractice

Economic Stagnation

The New Morality in 2014

DEREGULATION OF LIFE

Consumer Psychology. Cultural Metastasis

…..brand opportunities

Choice Control

Complexity

Anxiety Time Pressure

Consumer Polarisation

Uncompromising Consumers

Compromised Consumers

The Compromised Consumer

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

TGF Average

UK USA France Poland Japan Brazil India China Russia

Agreeing that: getting the cheapest price is important & I often

feel under time pressure & I feel a low sense of choice and control

2011 2012 2013

Source: Global Foresight 2011-2013

Uncompromising Consumers

16%

21% 21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2011 2012 2013

All who agree price inflation is a very big

problem and who use price comparison sites

NEW SLOWING

MATURING STABLE

MATURE GROWING

GLOBAL NICHE

ADVANCED SPREADING

EMERGING MASS MARKET

Sophisticated and demanding consumers,

empowered by affluence and technology

are increasingly unwilling to compromise on

price, brand, personalisation, timeliness etc.

Mobile and social technology is a key driver –

in-the-moment comparisons and feedback –

but also a wider consumer culture of instanity

In Summary (1)

• Global economy continues to recover – on current terms

• Rapid urbanisation and economic migration key social issues

• Emerging markets face continued financial market volatility

• Major demo-socio-economic challenges facing all regions

• Climate change impacts continue – especially emerging

markets

• Consumer tech provides new opportunities & challenges

In Summary (2)

• Recessionary psyche to endure for many – with wider impacts

• Polarisation and inequality a major focus for the year ahead

• The New Morality continues to play a key public/media role

• Feminist critiques and campaigns play different roles/markets

• Deregulation of life requires considered responses to complexity

• Tech enabled horizontal community activism offers alternatives

Thank you

Trajectory Ltd

Enterprise House 1-2 Hatfields

London SE1 9PG

T 020 3567 5801

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www.trajectorypartnership.com

Michael Brennan

Executive Director michaelb@trajectorypartnership.com