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Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No: PAD807

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

ON A

PROPOSED CREDIT

IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR253.7 MILLION (US$375 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

TO THE

PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF BANGLADESH

FOR A

MULTIPURPOSE DISASTER SHELTER PROJECT

November 19, 2014

Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice

This document is being made publicly available prior to Board consideration. This does not imply a presumed outcome. This document may be updated following Board consideration and the updated document will be made public in accordance with the Bank’s policy on Access to Information.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

October 31, 2014

Currency Unit = Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) BDT 78 = US$1

US$1.47833 = SDR 1

FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AF Additional Financing CERC Contingent Emergency Response Component CPP Cyclone Preparedness Programme CPTU Central Procurement Technical Unit CSO Civil Society Organization DA Designated Account D&S Design and Supervision (Consultancy) EA Environmental Assessment ECRRP Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project EMP Environmental Management Plan ESMF/TDF Environment and Social Management Framework & Tribal Development

Framework FAPAD Foreign Aided Projects Audit Directorate GAAP Governance and Accountability Action Plan GDP Gross Domestic Product GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GIS Geographic Information Systems GoB Government of Bangladesh ICB International Competitive Bidding ICT Information and Communication Technology IDA International Development Association IUFR Interim Unaudited Financial Report JDLNA Joint Damage and Loss Needs Assessment LGD Local Government Division LGED Local Government Engineering Department M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MLGRD&C Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development and Cooperatives MoPME Ministry of Primary and Mass Education PDO Project Development Objective PMU Project Management Unit PSC Project Steering Committee SMC School Management Committee

Regional Vice President: Philippe H. Le Houerou Country Director: Johannes C.M. Zutt

Senior Global Practice Director: Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Practice Manager: Bernice Van Bronkhorst

Task Team Leader: Anna O’Donnell

BANGLADESH MULTIPURPOSE DISASTER SHELTER PROJECT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT .................................................................................................1

A. Country Context ............................................................................................................ 1

B. Sectoral and Institutional Context ................................................................................. 2

II. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ................................................................5

Project Beneficiaries ........................................................................................................... 5

PDO Level Results Indicators ............................................................................................. 5

III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ..............................................................................................5

A. Project Components ...................................................................................................... 5

B. Project Financing .......................................................................................................... 8

IV. IMPLEMENTATION .......................................................................................................9

V. KEY RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ..........................................................10

VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY ..............................................................................................11

A. Economic and Financial Analysis ............................................................................... 11

B. Technical ..................................................................................................................... 11

C. Fiduciary (Financial Management and Procurement) ................................................. 12

D. Social (including Safeguards) ..................................................................................... 13

E. Environment (including Safeguards) .......................................................................... 14

Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring .........................................................................16

Annex 2: Detailed Project Description .......................................................................................21

Annex 3: Implementation Arrangements ..................................................................................37

Annex 4: Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF) .................................................50

Annex 5: Implementation Support Plan ....................................................................................54

Annex 6: Governance and Accountability Action Plan (GAAP) .............................................57

Annex 7: Social and Environmental Safeguards.......................................................................64

Annex 8: Economic Analysis .......................................................................................................70

Annex 9: Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Needs Assessment ....................................................79

.

PAD DATA SHEET

Bangladesh

Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project (P146464) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

.

SOUTH ASIA

0000009081

Report No.: PAD807 .

Basic Information

Project ID EA Category Team Leader

P146464 B - Partial Assessment Anna C. O'Donnell

Lending Instrument Fragile and/or Capacity Constraints [ ]

Investment Project Financing Financial Intermediaries [ ]

Series of Projects [ ]

Project Implementation Start Date Project Implementation End Date

30-Apr-2015 30-Apr-2020

Expected Effectiveness Date Expected Closing Date

1-Apr-2015 30-Sep-2020

Joint IFC

No

Practice Manager/Manager

Senior Global Practice Director

Country Director Regional Vice President

Bernice K. Van Bronkhorst

Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Johannes C.M. Zutt Philippe H. Le Houerou

.

Borrower: Government of Bangladesh

Responsible Agency: LGED

Contact: Md. Rafiqul Islam Title: Project Director

Telephone No.: (880-2) 811-6817 Email: [email protected] .

Project Financing Data(in USD Million)

[ ] Loan [ ] IDA Grant [ ] Guarantee

[ X ] Credit [ ] Grant [ ] Other

Total Project Cost: 376.7.0 Total Bank Financing: 375.00

Financing Gap: 1.7 .

Financing Source Amount

BORROWER/RECIPIENT 1.70

International Development Association (IDA) 375.00

Total 376.70 .

Expected Disbursements (in USD Million)

Fiscal Year

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Annual 10 45 65 85 85 85

Cumulative

10 55 120 205 290 375

Proposed Development Objective(s)

The development objective of this project is to reduce the vulnerability of the coastal population in selected coastal districts of Bangladesh to natural disasters. .

Components

Component Name Cost (USD Millions)

Component A: Reconstruction and Improvement of Multipurpose Shelters

357.00

Component B: Project Management, Monitoring and Technical Assistance and Training

18.0

Component C: Emergency Contingent Response Component 0.00 .

Institutional Data

Practice Area / Cross Cutting Solution Area

Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice

Cross Cutting Areas

[ X ] Climate Change

[ ] Fragile, Conflict & Violence

[ ] Gender

[ ] Jobs

[ ] Public Private Partnership

Sectors / Climate Change

Sector (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100)

Major Sector Sector % Adaptation Co-benefits %

Mitigation Co-benefits %

Agriculture, fishing, and forestry General agriculture, fishing and forestry sector

10

Education Primary education 22

Transportation Rural and Inter-Urban Roads and Highways

13

Water, sanitation and flood protection General water, sanitation and flood protection sector

30

Health and other social services Other social services 25

Total 100

I certify that there is no Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Co-benefits information applicable to this project. .

Themes

Theme (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100)

Major theme Theme %

Social protection and risk management Natural disaster management 67

Public sector governance Other public sector governance 10

Rural development Rural policies and institutions 15

Social dev/gender/inclusion Other social development 8

Total 100 .

Compliance

Policy

Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant respects? Yes [ ] No [ X ] .

Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Have these been approved by Bank management? Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Is approval for any policy waiver sought from the Board? Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Yes [ X ] No [ ] .

Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No

Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X

Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X

Forests OP/BP 4.36 X

Pest Management OP 4.09 X

Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X

Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X

Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X

Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X

Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 X

Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X .

Legal Covenants

Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency

Implementation X CONTINUOUS

Description of Covenant

The Recipient will ensure that a Project Steering Committee (PSC); a Project Management Unit (PMU); a Project Audit Committee; and a Procurement Panel (PP), all with composition, functions and resources satisfactory to IDA are maintained throughout the duration of the project.


Audit X Yearly


The Recipient will prepare and furnish to the Association interim unaudited financial statements no later than forty five days after the end of each calendar quarter, and shall have audited financial statements submitted to IDA within six months after the end of each fiscal year


Reporting X Quarterly


The Recipient shall prepare and furnish to the Association Project Reports on the basis of the indicators acceptable to the association no for each calendar year no later than 45 days after the end of the period covered by such a report.


Environment and Social Safeguards X CONTINUOUS


The Recipient will implement the Project in accordance with the provisions of the ESMF/TDF, the Environmental Code of Practice and the relevant Safeguard Assessments and Plans


Governance X CONTINUOUS


The Recipient shall carry out the Governance and Accountability Action Plan (GAAP) in accordance with its terms. .

Conditions

Source Of Fund Name Type

IDA Contingent Emergency Response Disbursement

Description of Condition

The Borrower (i) determines an Eligible Crisis or Emergency and the Association has agreed with such determination; (ii) adopts a Contingent Emergency Response Implementation Plan satisfactory to IDA prior to disbursement of funds under the contingent emergency response component, and (iii) will carry out such component in accordance with the provisions of the Financing Agreement and the Contingent Emergency

Response Implementation Plan

Team Composition

Bank Staff

Name Title Specialization Unit

Anna C. O'Donnell Social Development Specialist

Team Lead GSURR

Nadia Sharmin Environmental Specialist Environment GSURR

Toufiq Ahmed Senior Procurement Specialist

Procurement GGODR

Mohammad Reaz Uddin Chowdhury

Financial Management Specialist

Financial Management GGODR

Sebnem Sahin Sr. Economist Economist GENDR

Iqbal Ahmed E T Consultant Environment GENDR

Md. Akhtaruzzaman Consultant Social Development GSURR

Md. Rafiqul Islam Consultant Structural Engineer GFADR

Jorge Luis Alva-Luperdi Sr. Counsel Counsel LEGES

Roch Levesque Sr. Counsel Counsel LEGAM

Masood Ahmad Lead Water Resources Specialist

Operational Advisor GFADR

Junxue Chu Sr. Finance Officer Finance CTRLN

Satish Kumar Shivakumar

Finance Officer Finance CTRLN

Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay

Consultant Economist GSURR

Md Kutub Uddin Bakhtiar Sohag

Consultant Economist GSURR

Amani Haque Program Assistant (Dhaka) Operational Support SACBD

Venkatakrishnan Ramachandran

Program Assistant (DC) Operational Support GFADR

Non Bank Staff

Name Title City

John Arnold Civil Engineer Consultant London, UK .

Locations

Country First Administrative Division

Location Planned Actual Comments

Bangladesh Barisal Pirojpur X

Bangladesh Chittagong Feni X

Bangladesh Chittagong Lakshmipur X

Bangladesh Chittagong Chittagong X

Bangladesh Chittagong Cox's Bazar X

Bangladesh Barisal Barisal X

Bangladesh Barisal Bhola X

Bangladesh Chittagong Noakhali X

Bangladesh Barisal Patuakhali X

I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT

A. Country Context

1. Over the past twenty years, Bangladesh has made significant gains in economic growth, development and poverty reduction. Sustaining annual growth rates of around 6% in the past decade, the country has witnessed a profound social transformation with an influx of girls into the education system and women into the labor force. Economic growth has pulled 16 million people out of poverty in the last 10 years. Despite these successes Bangladesh faces considerable development challenges posed by its low and flat topography and vulnerability to floods, torrential rains, erosion, and sever cyclonic storms and tidal surges especially in the coastal zones. This is expected to be further challenged under several climate change scenarios, particularly with respect to increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and sea level rise. . 2. Coastal Vulnerability. The longitudinal position of Bangladesh, combined with its proximity to the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean, generate a tropical monsoon-type climate, prone to cyclones, flooding and drought. Bangladesh is also at risk for earthquakes and tsunamis, sitting at or near the juncture of several active tectonic boundaries. The summers are generally hot and rainy, while the winters are slightly cooler and dry. The dry season is from November to February, and average rainfall totals less than 10 mm in January, the driest month. The monsoon season is from June through August, where average rainfall totals increase to a peak of over 500 mm in July, the wettest month. Most regions accrue more than 1,500 mm of annual rainfall, making Bangladesh one of the wettest and most fertile climates in the world. Cyclones typically affect Bangladesh in the fall and spring, the intervals between the dry season and the monsoon season. North Indian Ocean tropical cyclogenes is occurs at least 500 km from the equator, a necessary prerequisite for a strong enough Coriolis force to sustain a low pressure center. Intensification of the storm transpires as gradient wind balance concentrates latent heat near the core. Cyclones move northward where, almost every year, at least one makes landfall in Bangladesh. 3. Economic Impact of Cyclones. Natural disasters, particularly cyclones, remain a persistent obstacle towards sustained growth in locally affected areas of the coastal region. From 1990-2008, Bangladesh incurred an average annual loss of US$2.189 billion (1.8 percent of annual GDP) from disasters. A comprehensive Joint Damage, Loss and Needs Assessment (JDLNA) undertaken by a team comprised of the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) and international experts , estimated that the total damage and losses caused by 2007 Cyclone Sidr alone to be Bangladesh Taka (BDT) 115.6 billion (US$1.7 billion). More than two-thirds of this was physical damage and one-third economic losses, focused on the coastal regions. Damage and losses were concentrated in the housing sector (US$840 million, 50 percent of the total), production sectors (US$490 million, 30 percent), and public sector infrastructure (US$250 million, 16 percent). The most affected sectors were, in decreasing order, housing, agriculture, transport, water control structures, education, and industry. Damage and losses to private assets and livelihoods outweighed the losses and damage to public infrastructure significantly. Cyclone Sidr was the second natural disaster to affect Bangladesh in 2007, followed after monsoon floods had caused extensive damage to agricultural production and physical assets, totaling US$1.1 billion. The Bangladesh economy sustained combined effects of the cyclone and the floods of

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2007 in the estimated amount of BDT 189.4 billion, or 4.7 percent of GDP for the previous fiscal year.

B. Sectoral and Institutional Context

4. The coast of Bangladesh is approximately 710 km long and is home to nearly 40 million people. Cyclones affect the region with strong winds accompanied by powerful storm surges and widespread inundation over a vast area. In 2007, Cyclone Sidr had a diameter of nearly 1,000 km2 at landfall. Destruction is amplified by low-lying physical geography, high-tide at landfall, climate change, high population density, and the low-income status of Bangladesh. The Meghna estuarine region is especially vulnerable to storm surge amplification. Table 1 lists devastating cyclones in Bangladesh over the past 50 years.

Table 1: Major Cyclones that hit the Bangladesh Coast (1965-2009)

Month/Year

Maximum Wind speed (km/hr)

Storm Surge height (meters)

Death Toll

May 1965 161 3.7-7.6 19,279 December 1965 217 2.4-3.6 873 October 1966 139 6.0-6.7 850 November 1970 224 6.0-10.0 300,000 May 1985 154 3.0-4.6 11,069 April 1991 225 6.0-7.6 138,882 May 1997 232 3.1-4.6 155 November 2007 (Sidr) 223 3.5-6.0 3,363 May 2009 (Aila) 92 -- 190

Source: Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) 2007 and Government of Bangladesh (GoB) 2008 5. After the severe cyclone of 1970, which killed an estimated 300,000 people, the Government of Bangladesh pledged to improve protection of the coastal population. In the subsequent decades, the Government constructed a network of cyclone shelters in the coastal areas, and developed an early warning system for local communities, entitled the Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP). Between 1970 and 2007, around 1700 cyclone shelters were constructed, with the aim of providing shelter and protection from high winds and storm surges common during cyclones. The growing network of cyclone shelters and the community based early warning system has served to save lives and assets in the event of a natural disaster. 6. Benefits of Multipurpose Shelters. The increasing coverage of cyclone shelters is often credited with the drastic reduction in lives lost due to cyclones and other extreme weather events. Globally, in the period 1956-2005, the number of disasters and related economic losses from weather related hazards increased by nearly 10-fold, however the reported loss of life decreased from 2.66 million over the decade 1956-65 to 0.22 million over the decade 1995-2005. Similar patterns are found in Bangladesh; total fatalities from a super cyclone in 1971 were estimated at around 300,000, whereas Super Cyclone Sidr (2007) affected only around 3,000, despite similar wind speeds and storm surge patterns (see Table 1). Both the CPP and the increasing accessibility of cyclone shelters are largely credited with this decline. To date, an estimated 3,268 shelters have been constructed in the coastal areas, through a combined effort of the Government of Bangladesh and several development partners (DPs) (see Annex 2). Lessons

2

learned over the past decades in the construction of cyclone shelters have further improved their designs. For example, shelters now include separate spaces for women, in large part from studies demonstrating the gendered effect of natural disasters. In addition, space for livestock, is now standard in most shelter designs, which allows for improved economic recovery. Finally, shelters are now almost exclusively constructed as primary schools, which allow for multipurpose uses and brings added social benefits to often remote areas. Further details are presented in Annex 2. 7. Linking Shelter Construction with Early Warning. Alongside the construction of multipurpose shelters, effective early warning systems are a critical building block to reducing fatalities and economic losses from natural disasters and extreme weather events. Global best practices show that early warning systems require strong technical foundations and good knowledge of the risks, but they must also be strongly “people centered” – with clear messages and dissemination systems that reach those at risk, and effectively bring them to safe haven. Bangladesh’s CPP was started through a growing network of volunteers at the local level after the deadly cyclone of 1970. With direct links to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, the entirely community-based and volunteer staffed CPP is responsible for early warning, search and rescue, evacuation, sheltering, first aid, relief distribution and rehabilitation activities. CPP is considered a model program in the world and has won the “Smith Tumsaroch Award-1998” for its Outstanding Performance in disaster management and has received the endorsement of the Government of Bangladesh (GoB). The CPP has over 200 government staff and about 50,000 volunteers (about 16,000 female volunteers) over 3,000 units, and it operates in 322 union parishads and 37 upazilas (districts) of Bangladesh’s coastal districts. Bangladesh’s network of shelters provides a vital first line of defense against cyclones, alongside early warning preparedness, megaphones, and an intricate polder system. 8. Ongoing Donor Efforts in Shelter Construction. After Cyclone Sidr (2007) made landfall, the Government of Bangladesh, with the support of several DPs, placed a renewed emphasis on the construction and rehabilitation of multipurpose shelters. In particular, shelters were financed by the World Bank, the Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF), the Islamic Development Bank, the Army Corps of Engineers, the Swiss Development Corporation, and the Government of Bangladesh’s Disaster Management Bureau, among others. These efforts have made significant contributions to the Government of Bangladesh’s program of phased investments of shelter construction, and provide a valuable first line of defense in the coastal areas against cyclones. With all of these programs set to close by 2015, the MDSP will remain as the largest standalone program of financing multipurpose disaster shelters. In 2008, the World Bank approved the Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (ECRRP), an Emergency Recovery Loan (ERL) targeted at immediate livelihood recovery, and rehabilitation of cyclone shelters and embankment systems affected by the storm. The geographic focus of ECRRP is the nine coastal districts that were heavily affected by Cyclone Sidr: Bagerhat, Barguna, Barisal, Bhola, Jhalokati, Khulna, Patuakhali, Pirojpur and Shatkira. Of these, the districts of Barisal, Bhola, Pirojpur and Patuakali sustained around one third of the total damages. Under ECRRP as well as under two Additional Financing operations approved in 2010 and 2013, around 330 new shelters are to be constructed, with 460 to be rehabilitated by the time the project closes in 2017. The Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) has been the implementing agency for the component responsible for the construction and rehabilitation of multipurpose disaster shelters. LGED is mandated with planning and implementation of local

3

level rural urban and small scale water resources infrastructure development programs, as well as construction of roads, bridges/ culverts and markets to social mobilization. In addition to rehabilitation and construction of shelters, LGED commissioned a masterplan of the coastal areas to determine the total needs of multipurpose shelters along Bangladesh’s coast, and to provide a ranking system to prioritize investments in multipurpose shelters for the next fifteen years. The total need for shelters, the shelters constructed to date, and the proposed construction of new shelters under MDSP are presented in more detail in Annex 2. 9. Moving from Disaster Response to Risk Mitigation. Because of the significant attention paid to disaster risk management, Bangladesh’s ability to manage natural disasters, in particular floods and cyclones, has substantially improved. This reflects a gradual shift from a response-based approach to a strategy that incorporates elements of greater emergency preparedness and risk mitigation. Bangladesh’s Second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper provides for strengthening disaster management and risk reduction, mainstreaming disaster management into national policies and enhancing community capacity for disaster preparedness and risk reduction. The National Plan for Disaster Management (NPDM) (2010-2015)1 is centered on the following strategic pillars: (i) risk identification and assessment; (ii) strengthening and enhancing emergency preparedness; (iii) institutional capacity building; (iv) risk mitigation investments; and (v) introducing catastrophe risk financing in the longer term. The underlying principles of the NPDM are that both loss of life and the economic impact of disasters can be reduced through advance planning and investment. Further the plan should be both affordable and delivery-efficient. The proposed rehabilitation and construction of multipurpose disaster shelters is a key investment to building resilience of coastal population. The Ministry of Disaster Management is the apex institution responsible for coordinating national disaster management interventions across all agencies.

C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes

10. The proposed operation is fully aligned with the Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) (Report No 54615-BD) for FY11-14 (dated July 30, 2010). The overarching objective of the CAS is to help Bangladesh achieve its target of reaching middle-income status and reducing poverty from 32 percent to 15 percent of the population by 2021. The proposed operation directly supports the implementation of the second pillar of the CAS, which is to Reduce Environmental Degradation and Vulnerability to Climate Change and Natural Disasters. By improving access to cyclone shelters, the coastal population is expected to face reduced vulnerability to cyclones and extreme weather events. Bangladesh’s Sixth Five Year Plan (SFYP) emphasizes continued investments in comprehensive disaster management projects, including community-based programs and early warning systems. SFYP targeted an investment in 5,3522 cyclone shelters by 2015.

1 Government of Bangladesh. 2010 National Plan for Disaster Management (2010-2015). Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Food and Disaster Management. 2 Annex Table 9.1: Monitoring and Evaluation Framework for the Sixth Five Year Plan

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II. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES

A. PDO

11. The development objective of this project is to reduce the vulnerability of the coastal population across selected coastal districts of Bangladesh to natural disasters. This will be measured through an increase in the demand met for multipurpose disaster shelters in targeted districts. Should the Government choose to reallocate funds to the Emergency Contingent Response Component in the context of a natural disaster, the PDO would be revised to include the following language: “improve the Government of Bangladesh's capacity to respond promptly and effectively to an eligible crisis or emergency”. This objective will be achieved by improving existing multi-purpose shelters, constructing new disaster shelters, and improving roads and connectivity in the area.

Project Beneficiaries 12. The project is expected to benefit the nearly 14 million people living in the nine coastal districts of Bangladesh by improving access to safe haven in the event of a natural disaster. This would serve to build the resilience of local communities to such natural calamities, and help to speed recovery by protecting critical assets. In addition, the project aims to construct multipurpose buildings, especially primary schools, and will thereby benefit the primary school age populations in these districts.

PDO Level Results Indicators 13. The following key results are expected from the project:

(i) Increase in the share of needs met for priority multipurpose disaster shelters in the targeted districts3; and

(ii) Number of project beneficiaries who have access to multipurpose shelters in targeted districts.

III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION

A. Project Components 14. The Multipurpose Disaster Shelters Project (MDSP) is a large-scale, disaster risk mitigation infrastructure project that strengthens emergency preparedness and will significantly reduce vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters. This builds on initial phases of interventions in multipurpose disaster shelters advanced under ECRRP, which is considered the first phase of investments. The project is expected to have an impact on long-term disaster resiliency in Bangladesh, focused particularly on the coastal region. MDSP would focus on meeting these high priority needs by providing construction of 552 new shelters and the

3 The share of needs met is a metric developed under the ECRRP that draws on exposure, vulnerability, and environmental conditions to determine “need” of a district. More details are provided in the Results Framework, and in Annex 9.

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improvement of 450 existing shelters. The project will also invest in connecting roads and communication networks to shelters, increasing accessibility and effectiveness. It is expected that by safeguarding lives and assets, the project will contribute to goals of continued growth and shared prosperity. 15. Project Approach and Scope. Under ECRRP, LGED developed a needs assessment of the entire coastal area with the objective of improving the coverage of accessible multipurpose disaster shelters by 2025. This analysis shows that 7,124 multipurpose shelters will be needed by 2025 of which 4,760 will be needed by 2020 to improve the disaster resilience of the population across all fourteen coastal districts. Using a multi-criteria ranking system, the assessment divided the needs into two priority lists—Priority 1 and Priority 2—with the aim of ranking those districts and those locations where the need is highest. Of the fourteen coastal districts, nine were prioritized against this list. This includes four Sidr-affected districts of Bhola, Barisal, Pirojpur and Patuakhali that have been covered under ECRRP, but where significant needs remain. In addition, MDSP will expand into five non Sidr-affected districts of Chittagong, Cox’s Bazaar, Feni, Lakshimpur, and Noakhali, to begin to address the most urgent needs of these areas. MDSP represents a first step in meeting this need, by financing the construction or rehabilitation of around 1,000 multipurpose shelters in these nine coastal districts and aims to achieve coverage of around 80 percent of these districts. The proposed breakdown of investments by district, as well as estimated coverage to be achieved as a result of MDSP is provided in the table below:

Table 2: District Wise Disaster Shelters under MDSP and Percent Demand Met

16. Lessons learned in Shelter Construction. Based on the experience gained under ECRRP, several lessons learned have been integrated into LGED’s approach to shelter construction to date. First, all shelters constructed to date are constructed as multipurpose buildings, and more specifically as primary schools. This allows for continued use and upkeep in non-disaster periods, and goes towards filling the need for primary schools in the coastal districts. Second, the shelter designs have been continuously updated to reflect consultations with

Rehabilitation New Rehab New Rehab New

Chittagong 203 160 13 130 120 64% 83%Cox's Bazar 189 102 24 120 61 63% 83%Feni 35 30 6 20 19 57% 83%Lakshimpur 45 54 12 30 34 67% 85%Noakhali 142 66 21 90 35 63% 85%Sub-Total 614 412 76 390 269 64% 84%

Bhola 236 268 80 34 52 60 137 59% 83%

Barisal 109 112 74 30 5 58 68% 83%Pirojpur 53 115 30 36 9 50 57% 83%Patuakhali 112 160 70 47 49 36 63% 83%Sub-Total 510 655 254 147 115 60 281 62% 83%Total 1,124 1,067 254 147 191 450 550 63% 83%

Other Program

sNew Shelters

Proposed Under MDSP

Percent Requirment Met

Sidr-Affected Districts

Under ECRRPRequirin

g Rehabilit

ation

New Shelters by

2020 Priority 1Districts

Non Sidr-Affected Districts

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local communities on needs. Based on these inputs, shelters are constructed to have water supply systems and water storage, sanitation systems, food storage and relief supplies, as well as a provision for livestock refuge in some design options. In addition, each of the shelters have three to four classrooms, with separate bathrooms, which allows for women and children to take refuge in separate spaces with separate facilities in the event of a disaster. Finally, lessons showed the importance of good communication networks for speedy evacuation and delivery of relief supplies, and financing strategies now include the rehabilitation or construction of roads. 17. Innovations under MDSP. In addition to the lessons learned from ECRRP, several new approaches are being proposed under MDSP. These include:

(i) ICB: The numbers of shelters would be grouped into large contracts that would be

procured through international competitive bidding (ICB) procedure. This would allow for greater economies of scale in the construction process, and attract international and reputable contractors;

(ii) Steel shelters: The project would introduce the construction of shelters built with a structural steel frame instead of reinforced concrete. This is expected to improve quality control, and hence, reduce maintenance issues, achieve greater economies of scale, and significantly increase the speed of construction;

(iii) ICT Monitoring: ICT monitoring will be used to enhance the efficiency of MDSP by providing a single-stop instrument to monitor progress of construction, provide visual images to assess quality, and monitor the number and frequency of visits from LGED engineers; and

(iv) Support to CPP and School Management Committees: Under the project, targeted assistance will be provided to continue to increase the capacity of CPP and School Management Committees to operate, thereby increasing the sustainability and efficacy of the shelters.

18. MDSP is made up of three components that are designed to address the immediate needs of multipurpose disaster shelters in the coastal areas of Bangladesh.

19. Component A: Reconstruction and Improvement of Multipurpose Shelters (US$357 million). Lessons learned and continuous upgrading of the designs has led to a typology of shelters today that feature resilience to high wind speeds, safe haven for animals and livestock, water supply systems, separate sanitation facilities, and safe haven from storm surges. In addition, the shelters serve as primary schools during the year, providing wider community benefit to the coastal population. This component will finance the construction of around 552 new shelters (US$222 million), the rehabilitation of around 450 existing shelters (US$ 40.5 million), the construction and improvement of around 550 kilometers of rural roads to improve access and communication networks to shelters (US$71.5 million), the implementation of environmental and social management plans (US$6 million), and design and construction supervision (US$17 million).

2. Component B: Project Management, Monitoring and Technical Assistance and Training (US$19.7 million of which US$18 million IDA Credit and US$1.7 GOB

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contribution). This component will support the Government in implementing the project, and in coordinating all project related activities, monitoring, technical assistance and training. It will include: (B1) establishment and operation of a Project Management Unit (PMU) (headquarters) and field offices within the Local Government Engineering Department (US$11.7 million of which US$10 million IDA Credit and US$1.7 GOB contribution); (B2) monitoring and evaluation (US$3 million); and (B3) technical assistance and training for LGED in such areas as disaster management and preparedness, construction, contract management, financial management, preparation of environmental and social assessments, and preparation of EMPs, SMPs,, SEVCDs, and RAPs; training and capacity building support to the School Management Committees (SMCs) and CPP; and preparation of future projects (US$5 million). The monitoring and evaluation (M&E) activities would provide continuous feedback to the Government, the Bank, and implementing agencies on the project’s performance and impact of its various components, so that corrective actions could be undertaken in a timely manner. It will also supervise implementation of the overall ESMF/TDF, careful review and monitoring of sub-project specific social and environmental management plans, as well as tribal development and resettlement action plans, where applicable, and impact assessments, and supervision of their implementation. This component will finance incremental staff to the project. Government staff deputed to the project as well as any costs associated with these staff will be financed from the Government of Bangladesh. 20. Component C: Emergency Contingent Response Component (US$0 million). In case of a major natural disaster, the Government may request the Bank to re-allocate project funds to this component (which presently carries a zero allocation) to support response and reconstruction.4 The details of this component are further outlined in Annex 2.

B. Project Financing 21. The total project costs are estimated at about US$376.7 million, which is to be financed through an IDA Credit of US$375 million and GOB contribution of US$1.7 million. These cost estimates are inclusive of taxes, as well as physical and price contingencies. The Government of Bangladesh will contribute to the project in the form of staff costs. Table 3: Project Cost and Financing

Project Components Project cost IBRD or IDA

Financing %

Financing 1. Construction and Rehabilitation of Shelters 2. Project Management, M&E, Training 3. Contingent Emergency Response Total Costs

357.0 19.7 0.0

357.0 18.0 0.0

100 100 100

Total Project Costs Front-End Fees

Total Financing Required

376.7 -

376.7

375.0 - 375.0

4 Such a reallocation would not constitute a formal Project Restructuring.

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IV. IMPLEMENTATION

A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements

22. Overall project managed and coordination will be done through the Local Government Division (LGD) under the Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development & Cooperatives (LGRD&C). The project is to be implemented by Local Government Engineering Department (LGED). LGED already has a Project Management Unit (PMU) for ECRRP. MDSP will use the same project director (PD), but would establish a separate project management unit, with a dedicated Deputy Project Director (DPD) and separate staff, as well as accounting and reporting. Annex 3 outlines the implementation details for the project. 23. As shelters are constructed as multipurpose buildings that are used as primary schools, the project will necessitate close coordination with the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education (MOPME) to ensure appropriate locations of proposed primary schools. In addition, at the community level, volunteer based School Management Committees (SMCs) will provide an important interface with the local community and the sustainability of smaller maintenance of schools. Finally, the project is proposed in districts where CPP is active, and continued coordination and capacity building of CPP will be integral to the sustainability of MDSP. Under ECRRP, a database of all shelters constructed in the coastal areas through LGED and other programs has been developed and will be continuously updated to reflect accurate GIS based locations of all shelters. This database will be shared with the Directorate of Disaster Management and CPP as it is updated to ensure that there is full disclosure and information on the location of shelters. Further details are outlined in Annex 3.

B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation

24. Annex 1 provides the detailed Results Framework. LGED will be responsible for the results monitoring of the project. 25. Project Monitoring Arrangements. The PMU under LGED will prepare quarterly progress reports, in accordance with a format outlined in the Project Implementation Plan. The purpose of these reports will be to provide GoB and the World Bank with timely and updated information on implementation of project components, highlighting issues and problems. The progress reports will cover: (i) physical progress achieved against agreed indicators; (ii) issues and problem areas, including comments on actions to address identified problems; and, (iii) work programs and cost estimates for the coming quarter, including revised estimates for the current quarter. A mid-term review of the project will be carried out no later than June 2018, to review overall progress and take necessary actions for restructuring the project, if appropriate.

26. Governance and Accountability Action Plan (GAAP). A Governance and Accountability Action Plan has been prepared in order to ensure proper implementation of the project and the use of IDA funds. The key elements of the GAAP are: (i) measures to safeguard procurement and financial management, including the introduction of a Procurement Panel, and the introduction of International Competitive Bidding procedures on shelters packages; (ii)

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measures to ensure local institutional capacity, such as recruiting an Design & Supervision (D&S) consultancy firm to act as Engineer for civil works, and introducing ICT-based interventions for supervision oversight; and (iii) measures to improve delivery and sustainability of the project, such as proposing the construction of steel shelters, and capturing beneficiary feedback from citizens through consultations and School Management Committees. A detailed GAAP is presented in Annex 7.

C. Sustainability

27. Overall sustainability. Lessons learned from ECRRP and other shelter programs have been incorporated into the project’s design with a view to improving the sustainability of investments. Most notably, previous experiences have demonstrated that when shelters are built as primary schools, the buildings are in continuous use throughout the year, and upkeep and maintenance is improved because of the dual purpose of the buildings. After construction, LGED turns over the buildings to MOPME for continued operation and maintenance. At the local level, SMCs, established by MOPME, operate within the community to help with painting, small repairs and other minor maintenance. Additional support to SMCs under the project, such as in the form of training, will aim to strengthen the capacity of these groups to improve and ensure sustainability of works. 28. Construction quality. The sustainability of infrastructure is closely related to the quality of works. The project will aim to improve the quality of construction through (i) the introduction of ICT-based monitoring systems for improved transparency and accountability during construction; (ii) the construction of steel shelters, which permits structural elements to be prefabricated where quality can be easily controlled; and (iii) recruitment of an independent D&S consultancy, and engagement of SMCs as additional monitors of construction to ensure quality work. These measures will serve to create greater oversight during the construction process and improve the quality of works financed under the project.

V. KEY RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

A. Risk Ratings Summary Table

Risk Category Rating

Stakeholder Risk S

Implementing Agency Risk M

- Capacity M

- Governance S

Project Risk M

- Design M

- Social and Environmental M

- Program and Donor L

- Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability S

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- Other (Optional)

- Other (Optional)

Overall Implementation Risk S

B. Overall Risk Rating Explanation

29. The overall risk of the project is rated Substantial. This risk rating is based on the governance risks present in Bangladesh, the fiduciary risks related to large procurement packages, and risks related to delivery monitoring and supervision. Several risk mitigation measures have been put in place to address these specific risks, which are outlined in Annex 4.

VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY

A. Economic and Financial Analysis

30. An economic analysis was undertaken to assess the rate of return of capital investments in the new and existing multipurpose shelters, rural roads, and technical assistance. The main benefit of constructing new shelters and rehabilitating existing shelters is to save human lives and livestock at the time of cyclones. For the rest of the year, the shelters will be used as primary schools. The connecting roads will allow for quicker evacuation to the shelters during cyclones including provision of immediate emergency and relief supplies. The roads will also provide access to the school during the rest of the year. There will be three main benefit areas from the shelters: (i) Number of human lives saved by shelters; (ii) Number of livestock saved by shelters; and (iii) Educational and other ancillary benefits from increased number of classrooms. In addition, the construction and rehabilitation of connecting roads will generate benefits such as improving the flow of goods and services, even in non-disaster times. The cost-benefit analysis of the project shows minimum internal rates of return (IRR) of 13.2 percent and net present value (NPV) of 26 million dollars, with the benefit costs ratio (BCR) of 1.1 for the multipurpose disaster shelters, and an IRR of 12% for the educational benefits. For a detailed analysis, see Annex 8.

B. Technical

31. Bangladesh has gained significant experience in the construction of multipurpose disaster shelters, with over 3,000 such shelters already constructed in the coastal areas. Through ECRRP, LGED has established itself as the largest and most capable implementing agency with respect to all aspects related to the construction and rehabilitation of shelters. Several standard designs have been developed for different types of shelters, and these do not present high levels of complexity for implementation. During construction, several challenges emerge. First, since the ground is often marshy, with a very low load-bearing capacity, a proper geotechnical assessment is necessary for construction of strong foundations. However, many of the sites are very remote, and accessing them with the appropriate and necessary equipment poses a major challenge. Second, appropriate supervision of civil works and ensuring quality control remains a challenge, especially for the more remote sites in the coastal areas. While LGED has built significant capacity under ECRRP to better monitor and supervise construction, additional measures are required, especially given the quantity of shelters proposed under MDSP-II. These challenges

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will be addressed by packaging shelters into larger contract sizes and to restrict bidding to ICB to attract qualified and experienced contractors who could reach economies of scale. Second, ICT-based supervision will enhance the capacity and capability of field based supervision and will provide additional oversight measures to improve transparency and accountability in construction. Finally, slowly introducing steel shelters will address several of the quality control issues, as these structures can be prefabricated in single factories, and more easily transported to remote sites to be bolted in place. All the design and drawing details will be in accordance with Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC).

C. Fiduciary (Financial Management and Procurement)

32. LGED has well documented financial regulations and procedures and internal control measures in financial management but strict adherence needs to be reinforced by its management. LGED has the experience of implementing a number of Bank and other donor financed projects. Under the project, LGED will recruit a Senior Financial Management Specialist (SFMS), who will ensure efficient performance of financial management functions of the project. A separate designated account (CONTASA) will be opened for implementing this project upon signing the financing agreement. All payments will be made directly by the Project Director from the PMU. Quarterly IUFRs will be submitted under the project, and annual external audits will be carried out through FAPAD (Foreign Aided Projects Audit Directorate) of the Comptroller and Audit General’s office of Bangladesh. Independent performance audits, including review of the financial management system and verification of procurements will be carried out by a firm of Chartered Accountants. The performance audit will be carried out two years before the credit closing date. The process of selecting such auditors and TOR(s) for such audits will be agreed with the Bank during the selection process. There are no outstanding audit reports due from LGED. 33. Procurement Packaging. Procurement under the project would be grouped into large ICB contracts that would be done with high level of scrutiny by the Bank and the Government. Bidding documents would require all contractors to disclose their agents and relationships with the implementing entity, as well as in Bangladesh. District-wise packaging of shelter contracts will follow the following principles: (i) rehabilitation of all shelters would be packaged into one contract unless maximum size of the package exceeds US$9 million (about 100 shelters); (ii) construction of new shelters would be packaged into one contract per district unless the contract size exceeds US$20 million (over 50 shelters). 34. Procurement Panel. A Procurement Panel will be established under the project, made up of two international/expatriate consultants and one national consultant. The Procurement Panel will act as independent and parallel bid evaluator for large contracts as specified in the procurement plan. This would also ensure that the bidding process is followed with full integrity and thoroughness, following appropriate guidelines. LGED would finalize the terms of reference of the procurement panel and will start identifying members of the panel as soon as possible so that the Panel can be put in place prior to starting major procurement under the project.

35. Procurement Post Review. Post reviews on contracts/ procurement will be continued by the Bank. An integrated fiduciary review that includes procurement post review and forensic audit will be carried out by the Bank on a regular basis.

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Disbursement 36. Flow of Funds and Designated Account (DA) Funds will be disbursed through a Designated Account (CONTASA) to be established with the PMU for the Project. In order to further simplify processes, report-based disbursements’ using the Interim Unaudited Financial Reports (IUFRs) will serve as the basis for withdrawal of funds from the Loan. Quarterly IUFRs will be used as a basis for disbursement. Advances would be made to the Designated Account based on six months projections. The Funds from the Loan will be transferred to any commercial bank as having adequate experience (in maintaining such accounts), acceptable to IDA. The PMU would manage the Designated Account. The approved Government procedures governing the establishment of Designated Accounts shall be followed in all respects. Direct payment method would also be allowed to process large payments to the contractors/ consultants, particularly those in foreign currency to avoid exchange loss. 37. Retroactive Financing. Retroactive financing of up to SDR 2.71 million (US$4 million equivalent) for payments made against eligible expenditures from September 1, 2014 to the Credit signing date shall be allowed provided that the procurement procedures are acceptable to the Bank.

Table 4: Indicative Allocation of Credit Proceeds (US$ Million)

Category Amount of the Credit Allocated (expressed in SDR)

Percentage of Expenditures to be

Financed (inclusive of Taxes)

(1) Goods, works, non-consulting services, consultants’ services, Training and Incremental Operating Costs under the Project

253,700,000

100%

(2) Emergency Expenditures 0 100%

TOTAL AMOUNT 253,700,000

Note: - Taxes and duties will also be financed from the Credit; The Government will pay for staff costs of civil servants deputed to the project, including staff allowances, as well as for honoraria; these expenditures will be included in the DPP. In case of an emergency the Government may request to Bank to re-allocate project funds to the “emergency expenditures” category to support response and reconstruction in accordance with the IRM Guidelines.

D. Social (including Safeguards)

38. LGED has prepared an Environment and Social Management Framework & Tribal Development Framework (ESMF/TDF) for the project to guide the project’s implementation in compliance with World Bank Operational Policies on environment and social safeguards and guidelines on environment and social development. The ESMF/TDF also benefited from the experience of LGED in the Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project for

13

construction and improvement of multipurpose shelters and the Rural Transport Improvement Project (RTIP) for rural roads improvement. Past experiences from ECRRP showed that there was not any land acquisition or population displacement during the construction or rehabilitation of shelters. Under MDSP, lands owned by the sponsoring local educational and social institutions will be used for construction of new shelter and horizontal extension of existing ones. In cases where institutional lands are unavailable, participatory approaches of voluntary donation, direct purchase or exchange by the sponsoring institutions may be followed for obtaining lands. It is highly unlikely that private lands and/or public land from private users will be required for land acquisition, and the project will not finance and land acquisition costs. Should LGED be required to acquire private lands and/or public land from private uses in the future, approval for financing land expenditures would be sought, and the project would be restructured. In the case that this might occur, the World Bank’s Operational Policy on Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) has been triggered to effectively manage involuntary resettlement. 39. The population in the project district includes some tribal peoples constituting about 0.2% of the total population. These peoples have their own indigenous language and culture but they are implanted in the mainstream society for their livelihoods, land tenancy and political institutions. Tribal people are not expected to be adversely impacted by the project. However, free, prior and informed consultations will be conducted with any tribal people to ensure full disclosure of the project’s activities. The Bank’s policy on Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) has also been triggered for the project.

40. Access to Information: The ESMF/TDF along with the Bengali translation was disclosed on LGED’s website on October 24, 2014. Prior to disclosure, a national consultation workshop was held, and comments from the workshop, public, and World Bank were incorporated into the final document. Upon request from LGED, the documents were disclosed at World Bank’s Infoshop on October 30, 2014.

41. LGED has also designed a Grievance Response Mechanism (GRM) to answer to queries, receive suggestions and address complaints and grievances about any irregularities in application of the guidelines adopted in this framework for inclusive project design, and assessment and mitigation of social and environmental impacts.

E. Environment (including Safeguards)

42. A framework approach has been adopted to provide guidelines and procedures of environmental management of sub-projects since the exact location of the disaster shelters yet to identify. The new shelter/school building with access road will be constructed at the same premises of the existing schools. The specific locations will be identified during implementation stage. The environmental impacts of the project are expected to be mostly construction related and limited within the project boundaries. The project is classified as a Category B project, since no significant and/or irreversible adverse environmental issues are expected from the construction of shelter buildings. The policy on environment assessment (OP/BP 4.01) has been triggered for the proposed operation to ensure that the project design and implementation will be environmentally sound and sustainable. Since the exact location of the project will not be known before implementation, a framework approach for both environment and social will be adopted

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for proper environment/social management.

43. LGED developed an Environment Social Management Framework and Tribal Development Framework (ESMF/TDF) based on overall environment/social assessment, the findings of environmental/social studies of ECRRP, field level consultation, the country’s overall policy framework, national legislation, World Bank safeguard policies, and institutional capabilities related to the safeguard aspects. The ESMF/TDF will be the guiding document for subproject-specific: (i) environmental/social screening; (ii) impacts assessment; (iii) consultation and disclosure; (IV) preparation of environmental/social management plan (EMP/SMP), Small Ethnic and Other Vulnerable Communities Plan (SEOVC) and resettlement action plan (RAP) including budget (v) sample BoQ and special environmental clauses (SECs) for constructions/civil works etc. In addition, the relevant Environmental, Health and Safety Guidelines of the World Bank Group/International Finance Corporation (IFC) will be applicable to the project.

44. Consultation with communities has been made mandatory for environmental screening/assessment of each subproject. The subproject specific environmental screening/assessment will also be disclosed before the contract mobilization

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Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring .

Country: Bangladesh

Project Name: Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project (P146464) .

Results Framework .

Project Development Objectives .

PDO Statement

The development objective of this project is to reduce the vulnerability of the coastal population to natural disasters across selected coastal districts of Bangladesh.

These results are at Project Level .

Project Development Objective Indicators

Cumulative Target Values

Indicator Name Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 YR5 End Target

Increase in the share of needs met of priority multipurpose disaster shelters in the targeted districts (Percentage)

60.00 60.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 80.00

Number of project beneficiaries who have access to multipurpose shelters in targeted districts (Number)

0.00 121,500.00 314,500.00 557,500.00 968,500.00 1,236,500 1,236,500.00

.

Intermediate Results Indicators

Cumulative Target Values

Indicator Name Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 YR5 End Target

Number of new multipurpose shelters constructed

0.00 50.00 150.00 250.00 350.00 552.00 552.00

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(Number)

Number of multipurpose shelters rehabilitated (Number)

0.00 50.00 100.00 200.00 325.00 450.00 450.00

Roads constructed, Rural (Kilometers) - (Core)

0.00 50.00 100.00 300.00 450.00 550.00 550.00

Number of additional classrooms built or rehabilitated at the primary level resulting from project interventions. (Number) - (Core)

0.00 300.00 750.00 1350.00 2325.00 3000.00 3000.00

Participants in consultation activities during project implementation (number) (Number) - (Core)

0.00 2,000.00 5,000.00 10,000.00 13,500.00 20,000.00 20,000.00

Participants in consultation activities during project implementation - female (Number - Sub-Type: Breakdown) - (Core)

0.00 1,000.00 2,500.00 5,000.00 6,750.00 10,000.00 10,000.00

.

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Indicator Description .

Project Development Objective Indicators

Indicator Name Description (indicator definition etc.) Frequency Data Source / Methodology Responsibility for Data Collection

Increase in the share of needs met for priority multipurpose disaster shelters in the targeted districts

Needs of the district as measured by the a multi-criteria analysis including exposure to climate and extreme weather events, population density, population growth to 2020, distance to existing shelters, and deficit of shelters within a 5 km radius. Methodology was developed to analyze all coastal districts under the ECRRP to develop a priority ranking, and identify the "need" in each district. Given the investments in multirpurpose shelters to date, the share of needs met in the targeted districts is, on average, around 60%. MDSP will fulfill the need for shelters in priority districts from 60% to 80%. Baseline for this analysis exists and rests with LGED.

Semi-annual Semi-annual reports M&E Consultants, LGED

Number of project beneficiaries who have access to multipurpose shelters in targeted districts

The number of beneficiaries who will directly benefit from the construction and rehabilitation of shelters. This is measured by the expected capacity increase in shelters constructed under the project, as well as actual random sampling of the project shelters after an extreme weather event to verify the number of people who actually use shelters.

Semi-annual reporting for shelter capacity; random sampling post disaster (if such a disaster occurs)

Surveys M&E Consultants

.

Intermediate Results Indicators

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Indicator Name Description (indicator definition etc.) Frequency Data Source / Methodology Responsibility for Data Collection

Number of new multipurpose shelters constructed

No description provided. semi-annual Construction supervision reports; M&E reports

M&E Consultants

Number of multipurpose shelters rehabilitated

No description provided. semi-annual Construction supervision reports; M&E reports

M&E Consultants

Roads constructed, Rural Kilometers of rural roads constructed under the project. Rural roads are roads functionally classified in various countries below Trunk or Primary, Secondary or Link roads, or sometimes Tertiary roads. Such roads are often described as rural access, feeder, market, agricultural, irrigation, forestry or community roads. Typically, rural roads connect small urban centers/towns/settlements of less than 2,000 to 5,000 inhabitants to each other or to higher classes of road, market towns and urban centers.

semi-annual Construction supervision reports; M&E reports

M&E Consultants

Number of additional classrooms built or rehabilitated at the primary level resulting from project interventions.

This indicator measures the number of additional classrooms constructed or rehabilitated at the primary level through the Bank-funded program. In most cases, it is expected that the baseline value for this indicator will be zero (‘0'). The baseline might not be zero, for example, for an additional financing IL operation. This indicator will be used to calculate the "decline in shortfall of classrooms at the primary level". TTLs should report on the progress of this indicator only if it is relevant to the project, that is, if the project aims to reduce the shortfall of

Semi-annul Construction supervision reports; M&E reports

M&E Consultants

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classrooms at the primary level. Please visit the EdStats database to view the shortfall of classrooms at the primary level by country.

Participants in consultation activities during project implementation (number)

This indicator measures the level of community engagement in project implementation.

Consultation reports for each site; random sampling annually

Consultation reports; random sampling of project sites

LGED; M&E Consultants

Participants in consultation activities during project implementation - female

This indicator measures the level of community engagement in project implementation from female beneficiaries

Consultation reports for each site; random sampling annually

Consultation reports; random sampling of project sites

LGED; M&E Consultants

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Annex 2: Detailed Project Description BANGLADESH: Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project

Background 1. The coast of Bangladesh is approximately 710 km long and is home to nearly 40 million people. Cyclones affect the region with strong winds accompanied by powerful storm surges and widespread inundation over a vast area. In 2007, Cyclone Sidr had a diameter of nearly 1,000 km2 at landfall. Destruction is amplified by low-lying physical geography, high-tide at landfall, climate change, high population density, and the low-income status of Bangladesh. The Meghna estuarine region is especially vulnerable to storm surge amplification. Table 1 lists devastating cyclones in Bangladesh over the past 50 years.

Table 1: Major Cyclones that hit the Bangladesh Coast (1965-2009) Month/Year

Maximum Wind speed (km/hr)

Storm Surge height (meters)

Death Toll

May 1965 161 3.7-7.6 19,279 December 1965 217 2.4-3.6 873 October 1966 139 6.0-6.7 850 November 1970 224 6.0-10.0 300,000 May 1985 154 3.0-4.6 11,069 April 1991 225 6.0-7.6 138,882 May 1997 232 3.1-4.6 155 November 2007 (Sidr) 223 3.5-6.0 3,363 May 2009 (Aila) 92 -- 190

Source: Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) 2007 and Government of Bangladesh (GoB) 2008 2. After the severe cyclone of 1970, which killed an estimated 300,000 people, the Government of Bangladesh pledged to improve protection of the coastal population. In the subsequent decades, the Government constructed a network of cyclone shelters in the coastal areas, and developed an early warning system for local communities, entitled the Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP) with the help of the United Nations and of the Red Cross. It is a joint program of Government of Bangladesh and the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society. CPP works for disaster management, especially in early warning system, search and rescue, evacuation, sheltering, first aid, relief distribution and rehabilitation activities. CPP is considered a model program in the world and has won the “Smith Tumsaroch Award-1998” for its Outstanding Performance in disaster management. The CPP has over 200 government staff and about 50,000 volunteers (about 16,000 female volunteers) over 3,000 units, and it operates in 322 union parishads and 37 upazilas of Bangladesh’s coastal districts. The key aim of the CPP is to mobilize people at the time of the cyclone and to move them to shelters where they will be relatively protected from the storm surge, which is generally very large. Thus cyclone shelters are vital infrastructure in coastal areas of Bangladesh, and the main reason for reducing death tolls during cyclones in recent years. To date, around 3,268 multipurpose disaster shelters have been constructed, with the aim of providing shelter and protection from high winds and storm surges common during cyclones. The growing network of cyclone shelters and the community based early warning system has served to save lives and assets in the event of a natural disaster.

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3. Several development partners have assisted in the construction of multipurpose disaster shelters. After Cyclone Sidr (2007) there has been renewed effort by the government with support from several development partners to meet the increasing demand. In particular, shelters were financed by the World Bank, the Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF), the Islamic Development Bank, the Army Corps of Engineers, the Swiss Development Corporation, and the Government of Bangladesh’s Disaster Management Bureau, among others. These efforts have been guided by a disaster risk reduction (DRR) program outlined in the Joint Damage, Loss and Need Assessment (JDLNA) after Cyclone Sidr. Meeting the demand of shelters in a phased manner is central piece of the DRR proposed under JDLNA. 4. Cyclones Sidr (2007) and Aila (2009). On November 15, 2007, Cyclone Sidr made landfall across the southern coast of Bangladesh, causing extensive damage to lives and property. Overall, around 30 districts and 9 million people were affected by the cyclone. Damage and losses caused by Cyclone Sidr were estimated to total about Bangladesh Taka (BDT) 115.6 billion (US$1.7 billion). Recommendations from this Joint Damage Loss and Needs Assessment (JDLNA) outlined a longer term program for disaster risk reduction and improving resilience to extreme events. The estimated cost of this plan included both the recovery and rehabilitation of damaged infrastructure to a build back better design, as well as the longer term improvements for disaster risk reduction. The total cost for this program was estimated at US$4 billion over a 15 year period, with a cost for the first phase of five years (2008-2013) of about US$1.6 billion. The Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (ECRRP) (Credit 4507-BD) was designed to cover a portion of these costs and to target the most immediate needs in the recovery and restoration of livelihoods and critical infrastructure damaged after Cyclone Sidr. 5. ECRRP supported the Government's immediate efforts to facilitate recovery from the damage to livelihoods and infrastructure caused by Cyclone Sidr and to build long-term preparedness through strengthened disaster risk reduction and management. The project’s initial US$109 million covered restoration of the agricultural sector in the cyclone affected areas, and reconstruction of public infrastructure, including reconstruction and improvement of multi-purpose shelters and rehabilitation of coastal embankments with "build back better" designs, as well as strengthened disaster risk reduction and management systems, and technical assistance, strategic studies and training to strengthen future emergency response and preparedness to disasters. ECRRP also supported planning and design of projects for long term disaster management such as (i) a strategic study of the coastal embankment network, providing recommendations for systematic upgrading over a period of twenty years (which formed the basis for the Coastal Embankment Improvement Project (Credit 52800-BD) that was recently approved by the World Bank); (ii) a project for the storage of food using modern silos; (iii) construction of new multipurpose disaster shelters; and (iv) ongoing River Bank Improvement Program studies to protect against flooding and river bank erosion, which are the main cause of loss of land and poverty in Bangladesh. 6. Additional Financing to scale up investments was approved in 2009, with a second Additional Financing approved in 2013. In addition, grants from GFDRR and the BCCRF, and parallel financing from KfW have contributed towards the projects expansion. Today, ECRRP with various IDA Credits and Grants is about US$356.9 million program under which about US$208.5 million are provided for the construction of new shelters and rehabilitation of existing

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shelters. A total of 330 new disaster shelters would be constructed under this program and about 460 would be rehabilitated. These are all limited to nine Sidr affected coastal districts (Bagerhat, Barguna, Barisal, Bhola, Jhalokati, Khulna, Patuakhali, Pirojpur and Satkhira). However, there is additional unmet demand for these shelters in non-Sidr districts which needs to be met. This operation would focused primarily on the demand for shelters in non-Sidr affected districts, that is Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Feni, Lakshmipur and Noakhali, as well as in four Sidr affected districts that are highly vulnerable to cyclones, and where there is very large unmet demand. 7. Demand for Multipurpose Shelters. Under ECRRP, studies have been carried out to estimate the projected demand for shelters in each district by the year 2020 and 2025. It is estimated that by 2020 about 4,760 new shelters are required in 14 coastal districts where Cyclone Preparedness Program is operational and 7,124 by the year 2025. Since it would not be possible to meet all the demand at once, due to the funding requirement as well as due to longer construction period in these remote areas, this requirement is prioritized in two phases. The Priority 1 and 2 shelters are identified using a multifactor scoring system such as location in disaster zone, levels of surge, distance from existing shelters, population in the location and views of the stakeholders, etc. The locations scoring higher than 70 points (out of 100) are ranked as Priority 1 and those scoring between 40 and 70 as Priority 2. A GIS map marking location of each existing and proposed location of shelters has been developed under ECRRP and will continue to be maintained under MDSP once ECRRP closes. The database includes the locations of all new, rehabilitated and existing shelters in the coastal districts.

8. The results for the study are summarized in Table 1 and Table 2. These show the projected requirements for multipurpose disaster shelters in the targeted districts by the year 2020 and 2025. Table 1 shows the additional needs for new and rehabilitated shelters in Sidr-affected districts, and Table 2 shows the new and rehabilitated shelter needs in non Sidr-affected coastal districts. About 940 shelters need to be rehabilitated in the nine Sidr-affected districts and about 614 in non-Sidr districts for a total of 1,554 shelters that require improvements. To the meet the requirements by the year 2020 about 985 new Priority 1 shelters need to be constructed in the Sidr affected districts and about 391 in non-Sidr affected districts (total 1,376 in 14 districts). Under ECRRP 460 shelters will be rehabilitated meeting about 50% of the demand for rehabilitation in the nine Sidr districts, and about 330 new shelters will be constructed, meeting around 34% of the demand for new shelters in the same districts Table 3. However, a very large unmet demand remains in the four most vulnerable Sidr affected districts after ECRRP, with only a small percentage of the total projected demand met: in Bhola, only 13% of the demand would be met after ECRRP, in Barisal it would be 27%, in Patuakhali 29% and Pirojpur 31%. The proposed MDSP aims to meet this demand by expanding construction of new and rehabilitation of existing shelters to cover these four non-Sidr affected districts.

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Table 1: Existing and Required Shelters in Sidr Affected Districts Area Population Existing Requiring Sq KMs Millions Shelters Rehabilitation

Priority 1 Priority 2 Priority 1 Priority 2Bagerhat 3,761 1.7 241 48 50 328 74 492 Barguna 1,291 0.9 263 106 106 122 159 182 Barisal 2,534 2.5 184 109 112 204 167 305 Bhola 1,989 1.9 587 236 268 130 401 194 Jhalkati 736 1.0 54 32 33 114 49 171 Khulna 2,089 2.8 160 198 47 360 70 540 Patuakhali 2,491 1.6 259 112 160 200 240 299 Pirojpur 1,240 1.2 129 53 115 222 172 332 Sathkira 2,275 0.2 60 46 94 280 140 420 Total 18,406 13.8 1,937 940 985 1,960 1,472 2,935 Of total 940 about 320 need major repairs Total Pri 1 + Pri 2 2,945 4,407 Population as of 2010 census

New Shelters RequiredDistrict By 2020 By 2025

Table 2: Existing and Required Shelters in Non- Sidr Affected Districts

9. Table 3 provides demand met in nine Sidr Districts under ECRRP. It is shows that four Sidr affected districts which are very vulnerable to cyclones and where demand for shelters is very high with ECRRP a very small part of the demand would be met by the ECRRP. These are Bhola where only 13% of the demand would be met, Barisal, Patuakhali and Pirojpur where only 27%, 29% and 31% of the demand would be met, respectively. In order to bring the number of shelters available in these districts on par with others and to achieve at least 60% of the Priority 1 demand in all districts, these districts would be included in the MDSP as well.

Area Population Existing Requiring Sq KMs Millions Shelters Rehabilitation

Priority 1 Priority 2 Priority 1 Priority 2Chittagong 5,285 6.6 420 203 160 635 240 952 Cox's Bazar 2,491 1.8 329 189 102 164 152 246 Feni 928 1.2 61 35 30 180 45 269 Lakshmipur 1,440 1.5 164 45 54 224 80 335 Noakhali 3,685 2.6 69 142 66 200 98 300 Total 13,829 14 1,043 614 412 1,403 615 2,102

Total Pri 1+ Pri2 1,815 2,717 Total Sidr + Non Sidr 1,554 1,397 4,760 7,124

Non- Sidr DistrictsDistrict

New Shelters RequiredBy 2020 By 2025

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Table 3. Estimates of requirements met under ECRRP in Sidr Districts Requiring New Percent Req MetRehab. 2020 Rehab New Rehab New

Priority 1Bagerhat 48 50 40 31 83% 62%Barguna 106 106 60 45 57% 42%Barisal 109 112 74 30 68% 27%Bhola 236 268 80 34 34% 13%Jhalkati 32 33 30 27 94% 82%Khulna 198 47 40 37 20% 79%Patuakhali 112 160 70 47 63% 29%Pirojpur 53 115 30 36 57% 31%Sathkira 46 94 36 43 78% 46%Total 940 985 460 330 49% 34%

DistrictUnder ECRRP

10. Shelters constructed to date. In the aftermath of Cyclones Sidr (2007) and Cyclone Aila (2009), several programs were initiated to construct and rehabilitate multipurpose disaster shelters in the affected coastal areas of Bangladesh. Under the ongoing ECRRP, around 330 new shelters are to be constructed, with 460 to be rehabilitated. The geographic focus of ECRRP is the Sidr-affected coastal districts. In addition to ECRRP, several other programs have constructed disaster shelters in the coastal areas. These have included programs financed by the Government of Bangladesh (through the Directorate of Disaster Management), the Islamic Development Bank, the Swiss Development Cooperation, and United States Agency for International Development, among others. The Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF) also financed the construction of multipurpose shelters through ECRRP. All of these programs are set to close by 2015, with the second Additional Financing for ECRRP to close by 2017. This means that after 2017, MDSP will be the largest and only multipurpose shelter construction program in the country.

11. Coverage of Disaster Shelters Under MDSP. Under ECRRP, rehabilitation and construction efforts were concentrated in the Sidr-affected districts5. This was considered a first phase of investments. Building on this phase, the proposed MDSP will expand the coverage of cyclone shelters to an additional five non-Sidr affected coastal districts facing high risks from cyclones where comprehensive early warning systems are currently present. It will also cover four Sidr districts where there large unmet demand even after implementation of ECRRP. The aim of the project will be to meet at least two thirds of the required shelters demand in all coastal districts estimated as Priority 1 requirement by 2020. In the four Sidr-affected districts to be covered under MDSP-II, the focus would be only on the additional shelters in need of rehabilitation/improvement or construction towards the goal of meeting two thirds of the total required Priority 1 need by 2020. Considering all ongoing programs, estimated coverage by districts under the MDSP is listed in Table 4. A map of all of the districts is presented at the end of this Annex.

5 Bagerhat, Barguna, Barisal, Bhola, Jhalokati, Khulna, Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Sathkira

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Table 4: District Wise Disaster Shelters under MDSP and Percent Demand Met

Note: Table reflects number of shelters constructed to date in target districts. Table will be updated periodically to reflect additional shelters constructed through all programs by 2015. Important Innovations under MDSP 12. Based on extensive experience of constructing shelters under ECRRP and other program following innovations are introduced in MDSP to improve quality assurance, improve speed of implementation, and timely delivery and better use of these facilities. These include: 13. Procurement Packaging. Procurement under the project would be grouped into large ICB contracts that would be done with high level of scrutiny by the Bank and the Government, and under which construction supervision would be undertaken by international consultants, who would be the “engineer” for works contracts. In addition, bidding documents would require all contractors to disclose their agents and relationships with the implementing entity as well as in Bangladesh.

14. A Procurement Panel will be established under the project, made up of two international/expatriate consultants and one national consultant, and act as an independent and parallel bid evaluator for large contracts as specified in the procurement plan. This would also ensure that the bidding process is followed with full integrity and thoroughness, following appropriate guidelines. Appropriate clauses would be added giving Bank the right to audit the contractors. Post reviews on contracts/ procurement will be continued by the Bank. An integrated fiduciary review that includes procurement post review and forensic audit will be carried out by the Bank on a regular basis. 15. Construction of Shelters using structural steel and other prefabricated components. Multipurpose disaster shelters not only provide safe haven for the coastal population during cyclones and extreme weather events, but also serve as primary schools during non-disaster times. As such, the demand for cyclone shelters in the coastal area is very high. To date, the

Rehabilitation New Rehab New Rehab New

Non Sider DistrictsChittagong 203 160 16 130 120 64% 85%Cox's Bazar 189 102 24 120 61 63% 83%Feni 35 30 6 20 19 57% 83%Lakshimpur 45 54 23 30 34 67% 85%Noakhali 142 66 21 90 35 63% 85%Sub-Total 614 412 90 390 269 64% 87%

Bhola 236 268 80 34 52 60 137 59% 83%

Barisal 109 112 74 30 8 58 68% 86%Pirojpur 53 115 30 36 13 50 57% 86%Patuakhali 112 160 70 47 69 36 63% 87%Sub-Total 510 655 254 147 142 60 281 62% 87%Total 1,124 1,067 254 147 232 450 550 63% 87%

Other Program

sNew Shelters

Proposed Under MDSP

Percent Requirment Met

Sidr Districts

Under ECRRPRequirin

g Rehabilit

ation

New Shelters by

2020 Priority 1Districts

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main constraint in meeting the demand is the speed at which the shelters can be constructed. For that purpose a study to check the viability of constructing these shelters with a structural steel frame instead of reinforced concrete was undertaken. The findings of this study show that many steel structures constructed are now Bangladesh and a number of good quality domestic steel fabricators make this a viable option. There are many advantages to the using steel over reinforced concrete:

(a) Improved quality. Steel components would be pre-fabricated in a central location allowing easy monitoring of quality. During construction, minimal quality control is required – only a simple check to ensure corrent bolting and alignment of members. High quality control will give a stronger and longer lasting building. The quality of reinforced concrete on the other hand, is reliant on many factors which often come down to effective supervision and testing on site at the time of concreting. Given the level of supervision and remote nature of many of the sites it is argued that maintaining quality of concrete will always be a difficult task. This will affect long term durability in particular.

(b) Maintenance issues – Poor quality control of concrete will lead to maintenance issues in the future which are costly (and often unfeasible) to repair and will require skilled supervision. Steel structures will also require future maintenance (painting) but this can be achieved simply will non-skilled labor. High quality, yet economic paints can be specified to ensure maintenance does not have to be carried out for 20+ years. The effects of corrosion can be further reduced by selecting locations away from coastline where levels airborne salts are high.

(c) Economies of scale – Due to the high numbers of shelters to be built there is potential for significant savings due to economies of scale. The pre-fabrication and erection of the steel structure can easily be done by a single or a few large contracts which will provide significant efficiencies in procurement, monitoring of quality and ultimately costs.

(d) Speed of construction – Constructing buildings in steel is significantly faster than reinforced concrete and is less susceptible to delays due to poor weather. It is estimated that up to 6 months can be saved from the existing program. The speed of construction is the main motivation in introducing the steel shelters to the MDSP.

16. The pre-fabrication of other components also offers significant opportunities for increasing the speed of construction and improving quality. Floor slabs are currently made with insitu reinforced concrete. An alternative system using pre-cast, pre-stressed concrete beams infilled with pre-cast concrete blocks (commonly called ‘block and beam’) would be viable where contract size allows for the creation of casting yards which can serve many shelters. 17. Improved foundation design. Existing shelters built under previous programs use concrete ‘pile’ type foundations. A study has been undertaken to assess the feasibility of using a more economic ‘raft’ type foundation. The study concluded that up to 50% of shelters, based on a sample of the ground conditions found under ECRRP, may be designed with a ‘raft’ type of

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foundation. In order to facilitate this under MDSP, improved soil investigations need to be carried out to give greater certainty of soil conditions.

18. ICT Monitoring. ICT monitoring will be used to enhance the efficiency of MDSP by providing a single-stop instrument to monitor progress of construction, provide visual images to assess quality, and monitor the number and frequency of visits from LGED engineers and World Bank teams tasked with supervision. The ICT platform is built around Open Data Kit (ODK), an open-source set of tools that provides an out-of-the-box solution for users to build a data collection form or survey, collect the data on a mobile-device and send it to a server, and aggregate the collected data on a server and extract it in useful formats. The ICT platform built for MDSP will include mechanisms for real-time monitoring of data capture, participatory tracking of project progress and irregularities, and comment submission. The platform automatically adds date and time, and GPS coordinates to form data and photos, which are transmitted upon submission to an online database. In geographic areas without mobile internet, the submission is stored on the phone memory and transmitted at a later time. The online database will be accessible to permitted users, where reports will be pinned to the shelter locations which are visible on an interactive map interface. ICT monitoring will provide in-depth and real-time snapshots of project performance in a resource-constrained environment, automatically place pressure points on identified problem shelters, inject transparency into the construction process, and motivate supervision teams and contractors. 19. Strengthening and support to CPP and SMCs. While MDSP projects to address the infrastructure needs present for disaster risk reduction, one important element of reducing impacts from natural disasters is on the early warning systems. These serve to warn local communities of natural disasters, in order for people to make arrangements and reach safe haven. Bangladesh has a well-documented and fully functional early warning system, staffed mostly by volunteers who mobilize to warn local communities. ECRRP strengthened the CPP through the provision of equipment, and targeted rehabilitation efforts in those districts where CPP has an active presence. Under MDSP, additional support to CPP will be given in the form of capacity building, training, equipment, and other needs as required, to ensure that the program is fully functional. Similarly, as most multipurpose shelters are built as primary schools, ECRRP has set a precedent of linking with School Management Committees (SMCs) to engage these on minor maintenance and ensure improved sustainability of infrastructure investments. MDSP will provide additional assistance to SMCs in the form of capacity building, training and other inputs, as needed, to ensure that these SMCs are engaged on the design and construction issues early, and that they are fully equipped to take over on minor maintenance works after the buildings are handed over to MOPME. 20. Component A: Reconstruction and Improvement of Multipurpose Shelters (US$357 million). Bangladesh has considerable experience with cyclone shelters since massive construction started after the 1970 cyclone. Lessons learned and continuous upgrading of the designs has led to a typology of shelters today that feature resilience to high wind speeds, safe haven for animals and livestock, water supply systems, separate sanitation facilities, and safe haven from storm surges. In addition, the shelters serve as community centers or primary schools during the year, providing wider community benefit to the coastal population.

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(i) Subcomponent A1: Construction of new shelters (US$222 million). This component will finance the construction of 552 new shelters within the Priority 1 category in nine coastal districts. The construction of shelters will be carried out by LGED as multipurpose buildings for primary schools, community centers or other community buildings, in full coordination with local government, local communities and primary education departments. The contracts for construction of shelters will be awarded in larger packages of shelters generally one per district thus minimizing supervision costs and attracting qualified contractors with adequate capacity. Lessons learned from ECRRP demonstrated that the construction of new shelters increased access for coastal communities to essential protection from natural disasters, and also provided local communities with necessary community amenities, such as schools or community centers through the multi-purpose uses of the buildings. Shelter designs were updated under ECRRP to include separate toilet facilities for men and women, and to include a safe space for livestock. These shelters were essential in the safeguarding of lives and livestock during Cyclones Aila (2009) and Mahsun (2011). The communities would make choice of the shelters based on their needs. The design would be updated during the project to continue to better meet the needs of the communities and coastal population. To start with one package of steel shelters consisting of 50 shelters would be implemented and based on the experience gained the number of steel shelters would be increased.

(ii) Subcomponent A2: Rehabilitation of existing shelters (US$40.5 million). This subcomponent will finance repairs and improvement to existing shelters that are damaged or cannot be used properly as shelters due to inadequacies. These shelters will be rehabilitated and to update and modernize the facilities in particular proper toilets and water supply as well as waste water system would be provided. The shelters will be upgraded by LGED in coordination with other concerned agencies and packaged into larger contracts—generally one contract per district-- so as to expedite the works. This fully incorporates lessons learned from ECRRP and the implementation of the component in this way has been working well under the previous project.

(iii) Subcomponent A3: Improvement of communication network to shelters (US$71.5 million). About US$71.5 million will be allocated for the construction or rehabilitation of around 550 kilometers of rural road networks as well as communication networks to the shelters constructed under the project to make them more accessible.

(iv) Subcomponent A4: Social and Environment Management (US$6 million). As part of the designs of the construction activities, social assessments (SA) and environmental impact screening (EIS) will be required. This component will finance costs associated with the implementation of Social Management Plans (SMP) and Environmental Management Plans (EMP). For each contract a separate site specific SMP and EMP will be reviewed will be developed and submitted for the Bank clearance together with the design and bidding documents. No land acquisition is expected under the project, but a Social Management Framework, including a Resettlement Framework, has been prepared and disclosed in the event that there would be land acquisition in the future. Independent

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Monitoring and Evaluation consultants (component B3) would be responsible for reviewing and monitoring the implementation of specific SMPs and EMPs.

(v) Subcomponent A5: Design and construction supervision of shelters (US$17 million). This component will finance the costs associated with consulting services for surveys, designs and construction supervision of multipurpose disaster shelters and all works covered under the project. This would include facilitating consultations with the local communities in identifying sites, needs and suitable design of the shelter as well as coordination with other government agencies and stakeholders, such as the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education (MoPME), local governments, and upazilla and union level governments. The consultants will also prepare the bidding documents, support the government in procurement of works and construction supervision and contract management. The consultants would also prepare first draft of the EMPs and SMPs/SEVCDs/RAP which would be reviewed by the independent individual consultants and cleared by the M&E consultants before submission to the Bank.

21. Component B: Project Management, Monitoring and Technical Assistance and Training (US$19.7 million of which US$18 million IDA Credit and US$1.7 million GOB contribution). This component will support the Government in implementing the project, and in coordinating all project related activities, monitoring, technical assistance and training. It will include: (B1) establishment and operation of a Project Management Unit (PMU) (headquarters) and field offices within the Local Government Engineering Department (US$11.7 million of which US$10 IDA Credit and US$1.7 GOB contribution); (B2) monitoring and evaluation (US$3 million); and (B3) technical assistance and training for LGED staff in such areas as disaster management and preparedness, construction, contract management, financial management, preparation of environmental and social assessments, preparation of EMPs, SMPs and SEVCDs and RAPs (where applicable); training and capacity building of School Management Committees and Cyclone Preparedness Program; and preparation of future projects (US$5 million). This will involve financing of incremental staff salaries (externally recruited staff), operating expenditures, consulting services, support to the Procurement Panel, financial and technical audits, and equipment and software, etc.. The Government will contribute the staff costs and associated allowances for civil servants deputed to the project.

22. The monitoring and evaluation (M&E) activities would provide continuous feedback to the Government, the Bank, and implementing agencies on the project’s performance and impact of its various components, so that corrective actions could be undertaken in a timely manner. They will also supervise implementation of the overall ESMF/TDF, careful review and monitoring of sub-project specific social and environmental management plans and small ethnic and vulnerable communities development plans and resettlement action plans, where applicable, and impact assessments, and supervision of their implementation.

23. Component C: Emergency Contingent Response Component (US$0 million). In case of a major natural disaster, the Government may request the Bank to re-allocate project funds to this component (which presently carries a zero allocation) to support response and reconstruction.6 Disbursements under an Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) will be

6 Such a reallocation would not constitute a formal Project Restructuring.

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contingent upon the fulfillment of the following conditions: (i) the Government of Bangladesh has determined that an eligible crisis or emergency has occurred and the Bank has agreed and notified the Government; (ii) the Ministry of Finance has prepared and adopted the Contingent Emergency Response (CER) Implementation Plan that is agreed with the Bank; (iii) Local Government Engineering Department has prepared, adopted, and disclosed safeguards instruments required as per Bank guidelines for all activities from the CER Implementation Plan for eligible financing under the CERC.

24. Disbursements would be made either against a positive list of critical goods and/or against the procurement of works, and consultant services required to support the immediate response and recovery needs of the Government of People's Republic of Bangladesh (GoB). All expenditures under this component, should it be triggered, will be in accordance with BP/OP 10.00 and will be appraised, reviewed and found to be acceptable to the Bank before any disbursement is made.

25. Project Cost. Project costs by component are provided in Tables 6 and 7. The cost estimates are based on actual construction contracts undertaken so far under the ECRRP. The physical contingencies are assumed as 10%. Price contingencies are estimated assuming a 2% escalation in USD terms. The average cost of a new shelter is about US$400,000, and the average cost of rehabilitating a shelter is about US$90,000. The cost per kilometer of road is assumed as US$130,000. The estimated taxes and duties are about US$70.6 million.

Table 5: Project Cost by Components

Project Component Base Cost

Total Including

Contingencies

A. Construction and Rehabiltation of Disaster Shelters

A1. Construction of New Shelters 188.6 222 A2. Rehabilitation/Improvement of Existing Shelters 34.4 40.5 A3. Construction/Rehabiblitation of Connecting Roads 60.7 71.5 A4. Social and Environment Management Cost 5.1 6 A5. Design, and Construction Supervision Costs 14.4 17

Sub-total A 303.3 357B. Project Management, monitoring and technical Assistance and Training

B1. Project Supervision and Management (LGED) 11.7 11.7 B2. Monitoring and Evaluation 3 3 B3. Technical assistance, training, studies and Future Project preparation 5 5

Sub-Total B 19.7 19.7C. Emergency Contingent Response Component. 0 0

Physical Contigencies 30.3 -

Price Contingencies 23.4 -

Total 376.7 376.7

Taxes and duties 71.573

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Table 6 Cost by component and IDA Financing (US$ M)

Project Component Total CostIDA

Financing

A. Construction and Rehabiltation of Disaster Shelters

A1. Construction of New Shelters 222 222

A2. Rehabilitation/Improvement of Existing Shelters 40.5 40.5

A3. Construction/Rehabiblitation of Connecting Roads 71.5 71.5

A4. Social and Environment Management Cost 6 6

A5. Design, and Construction Supervision Costs 17 17

Sub-total A 357 357B. Project Management, monitoring and technical Assistance and Training

B1. Project Supervision and Management (LGED) 11.7 10

B2. Monitoring and Evaluation 3 3 B3. Technical assistance, training, studies and future Project preparation 5 5

Sub-Total B 19.7 18

C. Emergency Contingent Response Component 0 0

Total 376.7 375

Types of Shelters and their Characteristics 26. Five types of shelters were designed for implementation under ECRRP. However, Type 4 was not used very much. The pictures of the options available are provided in the attachment. Under ECRRP Type 3 shelters are constructed the most (about 102), with Type 1, 2, and 5 constructed on 70, 3 and 53 sites respectively. The selection of the type to be built is made based on the site condition, land availability, and stake holders consultations. Table 5 provides an overview of the shelter types developed under the ECRRP and layout plans are attached. These types of shelters design would also be used under MDSP, however, deigns would be regularly updated based on the experience gained during the project and modified to suit the needs of local communities. 27. The shelters are constructed to be multipurpose, and are typically used as primary schools when they are not in use for a disaster. The shelters are constructed with separate bathrooms for men and women. Safe water supply is ensured, water treatment for wastewater is included and solar panels are provided. In addition, connections to existing roads are ensured by constructing a link, if needed. The class rooms are provided with furniture and other teaching tools. Generally, one floor is constructed for livestock and animals and top floor for human shelter. Floors have a mosaic finish and bathrooms have tiles for easy maintenance and cleaning. The shelters are designed to withstand wind speeds of 260 km/hour and placed higher than the expected surge levels. The foundation is constructed to bear vertical additions in the future, if necessary.

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Table 7: Types and Options for Multipurpose Cyclone Shelters developed under ECRRP

Key Features//Option Type TYPE 1 TYPE 2 TYPE 3 TYPE 4 1/ TYPE 5

Floor Area (m2) 300.5 342.91 290.57 396.37 301.21

Number of Floors 2 2 3 2 2

Number of Classrooms 3 3 3 5 3

Teachers Rooms 1 1 1 1 1

First-Aid Room 1 1 1 1 1

Room for Pregnant Women 1 1 1 1 1

Store Room 1 1 1 1 1

Toilet (male) 2 2 2 2 2

Toilet (female) 2 2 2 2 2

Tube well 2 2 2 2 2

Rainwater collection tank 2 2 2 2 2

Water filter Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Solar panel Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Water pump Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Capacity (persons) 1,300 1,500 1,300 2/ 1,750 1,300

Capacity (livestock) - - 200 - - 1/ Option 4 is the least or not used option as (a) the plinth size and U shaped structure requires significant land; and (b) in the event of a cyclone, the free flow of high-speed winds is restricted due to the U-shaped structure, possibly placing addition wind pressure on the structure. 2/ In reality over 4,000 people use these shelters and there is overcrowding. They use the space in hallways and stairs also.

28. Type 3 is used more and liked most by local communities, as it also accommodates livestock on the first floor. Types 2 & 4 require a larger footprint, and necessitate a separate “killa” space for animals, so it has been constructed in far fewer instances. Where shelter for animals is a consideration, Type 3 is constructed the most often. The design of the shelter is customized for each site making it suitable for each site and acceptable for local communities. This is a dynamic process and new designs are developed as new shelters are built.

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Photos of various Types of Shelters

VIEW OF DIFFERENT OPTIONS CONSIDERED FOR NEW SHELTERS IN EMERGENCY 2007 CYCLONE RECOVERY & RESTORATION PROJECT (ECRRP-2007)

OPTION-03 OPTION-05

OPTION-02 OPTION-01

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Map of Project Area BANGLADESH: Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project

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Annex 3: Implementation Arrangements BANGLADESH: Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project

Readiness for Implementation 1. LGED is expected to have the first procurement package covering a single district, or around 50-100 cyclone shelters, designed and ready for tender by April 2015. The actions taken are described below:

(a) Actions taken by LGED include: (i) detailed designs and bidding documents completed

for the first package of investments (1 package) ready for tender by April 2015; (ii) published notification requesting Expressions of Interest from consultant firms to provide services monitoring and evaluation, during the project period.

Project Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 2. The implementing agency of the project will be the LGED, headed by the Chief Engineer (CE). A Project Management Unit (PMU) will be established at LGED headquarters. At the local level, field level officers will supervise works in their respective districts, acting as the focal person for all project related activities. A Design and Supervision Consultant will be responsible for the preparation of detailed designs and bidding documents for the project, as well as for construction supervision. Project administration mechanisms 3. Overall Project Management: The Government would have overall responsibility for project management and coordination through its Ministry of Local Government, Cooperatives and Rural Development. A Project Steering Committee would provide the forum for overall guidance, policy advice and coordination of the project activities and addressing the inter-agency issues. The proposed project is to be implemented by Local Government Engineering Department (LGED), which will act as the Project Implementing Agency. LGED will be responsible for the implementation of the Project through a PMU. 4. Project Steering Committee (PSC). The PSC would be chaired by the Senior Secretary or Secretary of the Local Government Division and will include the Secretaries, or their representatives, from the Finance Division, Planning Division, Ministry of Primary and Mass Education, Ministry of Environment & Forests, and the Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief. The PSC will oversee the project, and provide policy-level guidance and inter-agency coordination for the project. The Project Director of the PMU will act as the member secretary of the PSC.

5. Project Management Unit (PMU). Currently, there is an LGED PMU established to oversee the development and management of the multipurpose cyclone shelters program under ECRRP. This existing PMU would be strengthened to implement additional activities proposed

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under the MDSP. The project would use the same Project Director for both projects, in order to ensure smooth integration and continuation of works. ECRRP and MDSP would maintain two separate Deputy Project Directors (DPD), one each for ECRRP activities and MDSP. It will continue to have a central project office located at the headquarters of LGED Dhaka. Most of the procurement and financial management activities would be undertaken at the headquarters office while LGED’s field level setup would support the construction supervision. The DPD MDSP would be supported by a Senior Technical Specialist, Senior Procurement Specialist, a Senior Financial Management Specialist, a Senior Environment Specialist, a Social Specialist, a Communication Specialist and a GIS specialist –altogether about 10 professional level positions and support staff as required and as agreed with the World Bank. The PMU will involve the Field Level Offices in each district headed by an Executive Engineer to facilitate the supervision work of the Consultant and monitor the construction activities to achieve highest quality of work. The field offices may be strengthened with additional staff as required by LGED, and as agreed with the World Bank. This setup is not expected to have any implications for the continued successful implementation of ECRRP. 6. A Design and Construction Supervision Consultancy Firm [Component A5] will assist the PMU in preparing the detailed design and bidding documents of the multipurpose shelters and will supervise all the construction. For civil works contracts, the Project Director will serve as the Employer, and the Project Supervision Consultant will serve as the Engineer for construction supervision and will be responsible for certification of bills to the Contractors and to achieve progress of the work. At the site, a Resident Engineer in each district, appointed by the consultant, with a team of specialists and inspectors will supervise the work of the Contractor. The Consultants will have the first two packages ready for bid prior to Board approval to conform with revised readiness filters for implementation.

7. Monitoring and Evaluation Consultants Firm [Component B3] will provide support in monitoring project impacts and supervise the implementation of the social and environmental management plans. The M&E consultants would report to the Chief Engineer.

8. Procurement Panel: In order to assist LGED in the procurement of large value contracts, LGED will put in place a procurement panel that would undertake the bid evaluation and award of ICB contracts, as specified in the procurement plan under the project. The procurement panel could be periodically reviewed during implementation, but preliminarily would consist of two consultants with international experience and one national consultant. 9. Coordination with MOPME. The shelters are constructed as multipurpose buildings that are used as primary schools year round, and can be used as shelters in the event of a natural disaster. As such, while the construction and rehabilitation work is undertaken by LGED, once completed, the buildings are turned over to the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education to operate and maintain as primary school buildings. LGED is currently compiling a list of shelters constructed and rehabilitated, and has in place a mechanism to share this information with MOPME. In addition, continued engagement with School Management Committees to ensure that buildings are properly maintained will be critical. Finally, continued updating of the database containing the location and sites of the multipurpose disaster shelters will be updated through the LGED GIS cell, and shared with both the Directorate of Disaster Management

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(DDM) and the CPP. This will ensure that early warning systems will be fully coordinated with accessible multipurpose shelters.

Financial Management, Disbursements and Procurement

Fiduciary Capacity

10. The overall fiduciary responsibility of project implementation would be with the LGED. The fiduciary capacity assessment was carried out in LGED and overall fiduciary risk (procurement and financial management) is Moderate for this project. 11. FM staffing LGED will recruit a Senior Financial Management Consultant for the project in order to discharge financial management responsibilities under the leadership of Project Director. The process of hiring the consultant shall begin before singing the financing agreement so that he/she can be on board as soon as the project is declared effective. The ToR of the FMC will be sent to the bank for its review and concurrence before starting the selection process. The FMC must be a qualified accountant.

12. Procurement Staffing traditionally the procurement activities are carried out decentralized offices of the LGED. However for the project, because the procurement packages are of high value and majority of them would be ICB, the project office of the LGED would be responsible for all the procurement activities. The Design and Supervision consultant provision although have provision for procurement specialist support, to further strengthen the fiduciary aspects of the procurement process, LGED will recruit a Procurement specialist to support the projects procurement in advisory capacity, primarily to provide guidance on handling procurement related complaints and also assist in procurement of small value goods and consultancy services following National Competitive Bidding (NCB). The ToR of the Procurement Specialist will be sent to the bank for its review and acceptance before starting the selection process.

Planning and budgeting 13. The project will send yearly cash flow projections within June 30 each year and this projection will be updated on a half yearly basis. Updated version of projection will need to be shared to the bank on a regular basis. Separate set of accounts/budget heads would be maintained for each financing to ensure charging of expenses related under the appropriate financing. 14. Procurement Plan: A draft procurement plan covering all major procurement packages has been prepared for the entire duration of the project. LGED would submit the procurement plan in SEPA system as it is currently being practiced in the ECRRP. This plan will be finally agreed upon between the LGED and the Bank prior to negotiations. It will also be available in the Project’s database and in IDA’s external website for this project. The Procurement Plan will be updated in every supervision mission to reflect the actual project implementation needs and adjustments thereof.

15. The numbers of shelters would be grouped into large contracts that would be procurement through international competitive bidding (ICB) procedure. While detailed

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procurement plan is being finalized by each district, the packing would be done based on the following principle: (i) rehabilitation of all shelters would be packaged into one contract unless maximum site of the package exceeds US$9 million (about 100 shelters); (ii) similarly for construction of new shelters one contract would be made for each district unless the contract size exceeds US$20 million (over 50 shelters). The final package size in terms of number of shelters and estimated cost would follow the Bank agreed and approved procurement plan.

16. Internal control (including internal audit) LGED has well documented financial regulations and procedures and internal control measures in financial management but strict adherence needs to be reinforced by its management. LGED has the experience of implementing a number of Bank and other donor financed projects.

17. Internal Audit Internal Audit will be carried out by the internal audit department of LGED, just in case the department fails to manage, a professional auditing firm will conduct the audit twice in the life of the project. First audit will be due by the end of second year of the implementation of the project which will cover all activities from the inception of the project. Another audit will be carried out one year before the closing date of the project. In each case, the project must submit the audit report to the Association within 15 days from the receipt of the final audit report. The ToRs will be prepared by the FMC of the project and will be sent to the Association for its concurrence. 18. Performance Audit One independent performance audit, including review of the financial management system and verification of procurements will be carried out by a firm of Chartered Accountants. The performance audit will be carried out two years before the credit closing date. The process of selecting such auditors and TOR(s) for such audits will be agreed with the Bank during the selection process. In view of the multiple sources of Bank financing, the TOR would include review of charging of expenses related to construction of new shelters, rehabilitation of shelters and operating costs under the appropriate financing.

19. Integrated Fiduciary Review procurement post reviews combined with financial management and technical reviews will be carried out annually based on the level of projects risks at implementation stage.

20. Filing and record-keeping LGED will preserve all records and documents regarding their public procurement in accordance with provisions of the Public Procurement Act 2006 (PPA 2006). These records will be made readily available on request for audit/investigation/review by the Development Partners and the Government. The PIU will maintain copies of supporting documents for all project transactions, and originals of such documents will be maintained within the LGD finance department. The project related documents will be filed separately to facilitate internal & external audit, and Bank reviews. The Senior Procurement Specialist under the DPD MDSP would be accountable for ensuring proper filing and record-keeping of all procurement related records among other tasks.

Contract management

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21. The ICT monitoring tool to capture progress of construction is expected to an effective tool for contract monitoring on real time basis. Once online, the ICT monitoring tool would serve as the counter check for LGED to verify progress payment certified by the “Engineer”. The field supervision staff of the Engineer shall also take the photographic record of work progress for submission with the certified contractors’ invoices.

Governance and Oversight Arrangements Audit Arrangements 22. Annual audit of the financial statement The Foreign Aided Project Audit Directorate (FAPAD) of the Comptrollers and Auditor General Office (C&AG) shall carry out the annual financial statement audit of the project. Audited project financial statements will be submitted to the Bank within six months from the close of each fiscal year until the close of the credit. 23. Project Audit Committee In order to ensure that the audit reports generated by the internal audit and external audit of the project are reviewed and to warrant robust follow up of the audit recommendation, a project audit committee (PAC) will be constituted having the Joint Secretary LGD as the chair and an additional Chief Engineer LGED, Audit Specialist LGSP II, LGD and the project director as members. The FMS will play the role of secretary within the committee. 24. Complaint Handling LGED will develop a complaint handling mechanism.

Procurement considerations in the fiduciary assessment (PRAMS RF 6, 7 & 8) 25. Procurement Panel. A Procurement Panel (PP) will be established under the project, made up of two international experience consultants and one national consultant, with the view to act as an independent bid evaluator for large contracts as specified in the procurement plan. LGED would authorize and empower the PP to act on behalf of LGED in conducting the evaluation process. The PP would conduct necessary due diligence for the winning bidder undertaking background/ reference/ credit checks to determine financial and operational capacity to perform the scope of work. The procurement panel would report directly to the head of agency, LGED Chief Engineer. The Procurement Panel will submit the bid evaluation report along with recommendations for award of contract to the project team, and concurrently share a copy of the report with the Bank. Upon receipt of the evaluation report from the PP, the PD will submit the recommendation to the LGED appropriate authority for approval in a sealed envelope. The PD will send the LGED approved bid evaluation report with recommendation to the Bank for review and no objection. After receiving Bank’s no objection, the PD will take necessary further approvals in accordance with the GoB’s delegation of authority (e.g. Ministry, Cabinet Committee for Government Purchase etc.). The PD will take necessary steps for issuing notification of award and contract signing. This would also ensure that the bidding process is followed with full integrity and thoroughness, following appropriate guidelines. The PP will be established prior to commencing major procurement under the project. Also, appropriate clauses would be added giving Bank the right to audit the contractors.

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26. Procurement for the proposed project would be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s "Guidelines: Procurement Under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits" dated January 2011 (Procurement Guidelines); and "Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers" dated January 2011 (Consultant Guidelines)) and the provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreement.173. All expected major procurement of works and consultants’ services will be announced in the General Procurement Notice (GPN), published in the Bank external website and United Nations Development Business (UNDB).

27. Particular Methods of Procurement of Goods and Works: Except as otherwise agreed in the procurement plan, works and goods may be procured on the basis of ICB following Procurement Guidelines. NCB would be carried out under Bank Procurement Guidelines following procedures for Open Tendering Method (OTM) of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh (Public Procurement Act 2006 - PPA, 1st amendment to PPA (2009) and The Public Procurement Rules 2008, as amended in August 2009) using standard bidding documents satisfactory to the Bank. For the purpose of NCB the following shall apply:

Post bidding negotiations shall not be allowed with the lowest evaluated or any other bidder;

Bids should be submitted and opened in public in one location immediately after the deadline for submission;

Re-bidding shall not be carried out, except with the Association’s prior agreement;

Lottery in award of contracts shall not be allowed; Bidders’ qualification/experience requirement shall be mandatory; Bids shall not be invited on the basis of percentage above or below the estimated

cost and contract award shall be based on the lowest evaluated bid price of compliant bid from eligible and qualified bidder; and

Single-stage two-envelope procurement system shall not be allowed.

28. Procurement of small value goods and works may follow Shopping method of the Procurement Guidelines. Direct Contracting (Goods/Works) may be allowed under special circumstances with prior approval of the Bank.

29. Except as otherwise agreed in the procurement plan, nonconsulting services may be procured on the basis of ICB. Procurement of non-consulting services having estimated value less than the ceiling stipulated in the Procurement Plan may follow NCB. The agencies will carry out such procurement using Bank Guidelines.

30. The procurement plan shall set forth the particular method for each procurement activities of the project. 31. Methods of Procurement of Consultants’ Services: Selection of Consultants will follow the Bank Consultant Guidelines. The following methods will apply for selection of consultants: Quality- and Cost-Based Selection (QCBS), Quality-based selection (QBS), Fixed Budget Selection (FBS), Consultants’ Qualification (CQ), Least-Cost Selection (LCS), and Single-Source Selection (SSS). Shortlist of consultants for services estimated to cost less than

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US$300,000 equivalent per contract may be composed entirely of national consultants. The Procurement Plan will specify the circumstances and threshold under which specific methods will be applicable. The procurement plan shall set forth the particular method for each consultant selection activities of the project. 32. Operating Costs: These costs will include incremental operating costs for office utilities, office supplies and stationeries, O&M of equipment and vehicles, hiring of vehicles, fuel, office rent, souvenirs, events, bank charges, advertising costs, and salaries and contractual allowances of contracted staff, but excluding salaries of Government officials.

33. Assessment of the Agency’s Capacity to Implement Procurement: Bangladesh has a nodal procurement policy agency and a Public Procurement Act (PPA) 2006 with associated Public Procurement Rules 2008 (PPR) and bidding documents. It created a critical mass of a good number of procurement professionals and, as of now, provided training to over 5,300 staff of about 350 organizations. To sustain the reform, with Bank’s assistance, the Government has been implementing a second procurement reform project since late 2007, focusing largely on the implementation and monitoring of PPA including introduction of e-government procurement at key sectoral agencies.

34. Notwithstanding the above progress over the past years, recently the new Government made a few amendments to the PPA part of which were found not consistent with the Bank’s Guidelines, and as such the Bank for its projects allowed for local procurement the use of PPA/PPR with those exceptions.

35. A capacity assessment of LGED has been conducted. LGED, although has a number of trained staff on PPA, lacks procurement knowledge especially in ICB following Procurement Guidelines and specific weakness in bid evaluation to the standard required for Bank financed project. In LGED contract administration is a significant issue; sometimes payments are delayed while in other cases payments are made for works not completed yet, many high value contracts are not completed within the original contract period. LGED is also not immune to systemic issues affecting procurement efficiency and performance. Emphasis also needs to be laid on areas of internal control, documentation, information dissemination, administration of contract including delivery follow-up, payments, handling complaints etc. However, much of the shortfalls are significantly overcame by LGED while implementation of the ECRRP. The project is rated as “Substantial-Risk” from procurement operation and contract administration viewpoint. Several measures need to be introduced to minimize the risk during the implementation of the project. These assessments and agreed action has captured in the web based Procurement Risk Assessment Management System (P-RAMS).

36. Review by IDA of Procurement Decisions: The review by IDA of procurement decisions and selection of consultants will be governed by Appendix 1 of the Bank’s Guidelines. For each contract to be financed by the Credit, threshold for prior review requirements and post review contracts will be identified in the Procurement Plan. This prior review threshold will be updated annually based on the performance of LGED.

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FM considerations in the fiduciary assessment

IDA Amount Financing Percentage

1. Works, good, non-consulting services, consulting services, incremental operating expenditures and training costs. 375 100%2. Emergency expenditures 0 100%

Total 375 Note: - Taxes and duties will also be financed from the Credit;

The Government will pay for staff costs of civil servants deputed to the project, including staff allowances, as well as for honoraria; these expenditures will be included in the DPP. In case of an emergency the Government may request to Bank to re-allocate project funds to the “emergency expenditures” category to support response and reconstruction in accordance with the IRM Guidelines.

29. Flow of Funds and Designated Account (DA) Funds will be disbursed through a Designated Account (CONTASA) to be established with the PMU for the Project. In order to further simplify processes, report-based disbursements’ using the Interim Unaudited Financial Reports (IUFRs) will serve as the basis for withdrawal of funds from the credit. Quarterly IUFRs will be used as a basis for disbursement. Advances would be made to the Designated Account based on six months projections. 30. Designated Account A separate designated account (CONTASA) will be opened for implementing this project upon signing the financing agreement. Selection of the local bank to operate the special account shall have to be acceptable to the World Bank. All payments will be made directly by the Project Director from the PMU.

63. Retroactive Financing. Retroactive financing of up to SDR 2.71 million (US$4 million equivalent) for payments made against eligible expenditures from September 1, 2014 to the Credit signing date shall be allowed provided that the procurement procedures are acceptable to the Bank.

Accounting and Financial Reporting 31. Accounting System The project will use the LGED’s internally developed “Unified Financial Management System (UFMS)” for recording accounting data and preparing accurate and timely IUFRs. 32. Interim Un-audited Financial Statement (IUFR) The PMU will prepare an IUFR, in the format provided by the Bank, on a quarterly basis and submit it to the World Bank for its review and clearance within 45 days from the end of each quarter.

33. Overall Fiduciary Risks: The overall FM risk is assessed as Substantial. The Association has identified the necessary measures on FM staffing and systems to mitigate the fiduciary risks

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arising from the weaknesses of the internal control environment and FM capacities through project financial management arrangements as stated above.

34. Staffing. Financial Management would be undertaken by a Senior Financial Management Specialist, to be recruited by the project, and to be based in Dhaka. All financial management activities will be undertaken centrally in the PMU office in Dhaka, to ensure full accountability.

Environmental Safeguards 35. Applicable Environmental Category and Safeguard Polices. The project is classified as a Category B project since no significant and/or irreversible adverse environmental issues in the rehabilitation/new construction of multipurpose disaster shelters under the project. The policies on environment assessment (OP/BP 4.01) and involuntary resettlement (OP/BP4.12) have been triggered for the proposed operation. These policies have been triggered to ensure that the project design and implementation will be focused on reducing adverse impacts and enhancing positive impacts. 36. Under the proposed project, LGED will construct 552 new shelters and rehabilitate 450 multipurpose disaster shelters in nine coastal districts: Barisal, Bhola, Chittagong, Cox’s Bazaar, Feni, Lakhshmipur, Noakhali, Pirojpur, and Patuakhali. 37. Approach to Address Environmental Safeguard Issues. The proposed project will be implemented over a period of five years. LGED will ensure that the proposed civil works takes environmental concerns into account. Details of the location of each of the multipurpose shelters will be finalized during project implementation. As a result, an Environmental Management Framework (EMF) has been prepared by the borrower describing the general baseline condition and typical environmental impacts from different types of subprojects during preconstruction, construction and operation. 38. The EMF is intended to provide the guidelines to comply with national legislation and World Bank safeguards policies, and defines the environmental requirements needed for processing the financing of each sub-component. In addition, the EMF has laid out the procedures for screening each subproject for potential environmental impacts, and how to determine the scope of appropriate Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The screening will help to determine whether a proposed subproject needs the environmental assessment or whether it would be required to follow the Environmental Code of Practices (ECoP) to mitigate or avoid adverse impacts. The Environmental Code of Practice (ECoP) for different types of urban services appropriate at various stages (pre-construction, construction and operation) of project implementation has been prepared in the EMF. 39. According to the EMF, site specific Environmental Management Plans (EMP) will need to be prepared for all sites having environmental impacts and EMP will be an integral part of the Bill of Quantities (BOQ). The EMF also provides the Environmental Code of Practice (ECoP), which will be included in all subproject civil works contracts through a set of special environmental clauses (SECs) included in the Technical Specification of the biding documents.

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40. In addition to EMF, the relevant Environmental, Health and Safety Guidelines of the World Bank Group/International Finance Corporation (IFC) will be applicable to the project. 41. Borrower’s capacity on environmental safeguard. The Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) has developed its institutional capacity on environmental management through several other IDA financed projects, including the Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (Component B), the Rural Transport Improvement Project (RTIP-I), and the Municipal Governance Support Project (MGSP). These projects have served to support the capacity building and environmental guidelines for LGED projects. An Environmental Unit headed by the Additional Chief Engineer (Maintenance) has been established in LGED. Through the Rural Transport Improvement Project II, LGED is currently working on strengthening the Environmental Unit and also the training of the LGED officials and staff on environmental management. 42. Environmental Safeguard Supervision and Monitoring. LGED will hire a Design and Supervision Consultant (Firm) who would be responsible for the detailed design, technical specification, cost estimation, and preparation of bidding documents. The D&S Consultants would also be responsible for carrying out “environmental screening” and “analysis of alternatives” of each site in accordance with the formats provided in the EMF. 43. The site specific “environmental screening”, and “analysis of alternatives” prepared by the D&S Consultants (in prescribed formats provided in the EMF), will be forwarded to LGED for review. Site specific IEE, EIA, and EMPs will be prepared for each site selected under the project. If additional environmental assessment is necessary, LGED will take necessary steps for carrying out the assessment (e.g., through hiring a Consultant). The EMF presented in this report provides detail guideline for carrying out IEE/ EIA (including preparation of EMP). The environmental assessment will be carried out following the EMF presented in this report. LGED will also be responsible for getting necessary environmental clearance from the Department of Environment (DoE). 7. M&E Consultancy. LGED will appoint an independent M&E Consultant (Firm) to monitor the project’s progress and outputs. The M&E Consultants will provide support in monitoring project impacts and supervise the implementation of the social and environmental management plans. The M&E consultants would report to the Chief Engineer. 44. ICT Monitoring: ICT monitoring will be used to enhance the efficiency of MDSP by providing a single-stop instrument to monitor progress of construction, provide visual images to assess quality, and monitor the number and frequency of visits from LGED engineers and World Bank teams tasked with supervision. The smartphone-based ICT platform includes mechanisms for real-time monitoring of data capture, participatory tracking of project progress and irregularities, and comment submission. The platform automatically adds date and time, and GPS coordinates to form data and photos, which are transmitted upon submission to an online database. In geographic areas without mobile internet, the submission is stored on the phone memory and transmitted at a later time. The online database will be accessible to permitted users, where reports will be pinned to the shelter locations which are visible on an interactive map interface. ICT monitoring will provide in-depth and real-time snapshots of project performance

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in a resource-constrained environment, automatically place pressure points on identified problem shelters, inject transparency into the construction process, and motivate supervision teams and contractors. 45. Grievance Redress System. LGED has designed a Grievance Response Mechanism (GRM) to answer to queries, receive suggestions and address complaints and grievances about any irregularities in application of the guidelines adopted in the ESMF/TDF for inclusive project design, and assessment and mitigation of social and environmental impacts. 46. Consultation and Disclosure. The ESMF/TDF along with the Bengali translation was disclosed on LGED’s website on October 24, 2014. Prior to disclosure, a national consultation workshop was held, and comments from the workshop, public, and World Bank were incorporated into the final document. Upon request from LGED, the documents were disclosed at World Bank’s Infoshop on October 30, 2014.

Social Development and Safeguards

47. Social development concerns and safeguard compliance issues are related to the proposed interventions for rehabilitation and new construction of the multipurpose disaster shelters. These interventions would take place within in nine coastal districts and will follow principles of inclusion, participation, transparency, accountability and social safeguard compliance. Selection of the project sites in each district (subproject) will be done through an inclusive consultative process. LGED will ensure equitable benefits to all community groups, the very poor, women and vulnerable groups and will try to carry out site specific activities on existing and available lands. However, additional land may be required to accommodate civil works. In this case, land will be obtained through voluntary donation. Should no other alternative be possible, the direct purchase, exchange or contribution against compensation could be required, and the project would be restructured to accommodate those additional costs. The project triggers the World Bank policy on involuntary resettlement (OP 4.12). 48. Planning approach. LGED will identify suitable sites for construction or rehabilitation of multipurpose shelters in consultation and coordination with MOPME and DDM. Considering the framework approach for the project planning and design, LGED has developed a Social Management Framework (SMF) and Tribal Development Framework (TDF) to guide the planning and design of the construction of shelters from a social development and safeguard compliance perspective during the course of project implementation. Social screening/assessment (SA) will be carried out as part of the site specific designs and will include a social impact assessment, where social safeguard compliance issues are involved. Based on the results of the SA, social management plans (SMP) will be prepared for each site. The SMP will include a resettlement action plan (RAP) and Tribal Development Plan (TDP) where necessary. All SMPs, RAPs, and SEVCDs will be forwarded to World Bank for review and clearance before the sites are accepted for financing under the project. SMPs/RAPs/SEVCDs for annual construction programs will be disclosed in country and in the World Bank’s Infoshop before contract mobilization. 49. Social Management Framework (SMF). The ESMF/TDF includes social screening and assessment facility, a resettlement policy framework, and a social inclusion and gender

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framework. Among other issues, the SMF provides (a) a legal framework outlining the principles and guidelines which will be used to acquire lands and mitigate the adverse impacts; (b) facility for screening of social development and safeguard issues related to involuntary resettlement and small ethnic communities; (c) mitigation principles and planning guideline; (d) a grievance redress procedure for the beneficiary communities and affected persons; (e) stakeholder consultation and participation framework; and (f) arrangement for implementation as well as M&E of the SMPs, SEVCDs and RAPs. 50. Institutional arrangement and capacity building. LGED has previous experience in implementing World Bank financed infrastructure projects, and has specific experience on the construction and rehabilitation of multipurpose disaster shelters under ECRRP, where Bank guidelines on social safeguards, community participation and gender empowerment have been applied and exercised. However, to oversee and manage social management and safeguard issues in the project process, additional professional resources with expertise in social management and social safeguards compliance have been proposed for LGED. A Senior Environment Specialist and a Senior Social Specialist will be hired by the Project management Unit (PMU) of LGED. In addition LGED will procure the design and supervision consultant (DSC) firm and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) firm. DSC and M&E will have their own separate environment specialist and social specialist. DSC will prepare the environment and social screening/assessment report along with EMP/SMPs. The PMU, with support from the M&E consultant, will review and verify all the reports and will also oversee the implementation of the ESMF/TDF and the EMP/SMP/TDP/RAP. The LGED will also be responsible for getting necessary environmental clearance from the Department of Environment (DoE). The field level Executive Engineer of each district with the help of the environment specialist of DSC will be responsible for supervising construction work and environment management. LGED will submit the quarterly monitoring report on safeguard compliance to the Bank during implementation of the project. 51. Social inclusion and gender mainstreaming. Site specific designs will ensure that the vulnerable section of the communities including the very poor, women, traditional minority communities, tribal people disabled and children get access to benefits. Communities from each such group will be engaged in project cycle from identification to design and implementation and their options will be given due consideration. Site specific information will be disclosed in the public domain including the social management framework and any subsequent social management and resettlement action plans. Specific measures will be designed on (i) consultation, feedback and grievance-redress mechanisms to alert project staff to problems identified by beneficiaries, affected people, and other stakeholders; (ii) participatory planning to ensure the project meets the needs of beneficiaries; and (iii) participatory monitoring to identify problems. The project will promote School Management Committees (SMCs) as a gateway for formal involvement of the communities. 52. Community Consultation. Extensive discussions will be carried out with communities during the site specific identification, planning and implementation process. LGED will prepare a Bangla translation of the SMF and an operational guideline for SMF implementation. LGED will ensure that copies of the translated documents are available at their headquarters, at the selected field level offices and other local places accessible to the general public. The entitlement

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matrix for the any subproject will be made available to all affected persons in Bangla before bidding process starts. 53. Grievance Response Mechanism. The project will establish a grievance response mechanism (GRM) to answer to queries, receive suggestions and address complaints and grievances about any irregularities in application of the guidelines adopted in this framework for inclusive project design, and assessment and mitigation of social and environmental impacts. Based on consensus, the procedure will help to resolve issues/conflicts amicably and quickly, saving the aggrieved persons from having to resort to expensive, time-consuming legal action. The procedure will however not pre-empt a person’s right to go to the courts of law. Grievance response focal points will be available at the field office level, and at the project level within LGED. 54. LGED will ensure that communities are fully informed about the GRM and their rights to offer suggestions and make complaints, and the different mechanisms through which they can do so, including grievances related to the land acquisition process and physical displacement. In areas where the tribal population is in the majority, one representative of the committee will come from the tribal community. Monitoring & Evaluation 55. Annex 1 provides the full results framework. The project level indicators are selected to measure the performance of the project’s progress on construction and rehabilitation of multipurpose shelters in the relevant coastal districts. 56. Project Monitoring Arrangements. The PMU under LGED will prepare quarterly progress reports, in accordance with a format outlined in the Project Implementation Plan. The purpose of these reports will be to provide authorities and the World Bank with timely and updated information on implementation of project components, highlighting issues and problems. The progress reports will cover: (a) physical progress achieved against agreed implementation and disbursement indicators; (b) issues and problem areas, including comments on actions to address identified problems; and, (c) work programs and cost estimates for the coming quarter, including revised estimates for the current quarter. 57. The Project will be supervised jointly by World Bank staff and GOB at least three times during the first two years. Annual implementation reviews and a mid-term review at the end of the second phase will be carried out to assess progress. Within six months of the closing of the project, LGED will prepare an Implementation Completion Report (ICR) for submission to the World Bank and GOB.

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Annex 4

Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF)

Bangladesh: Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project (P146464) .

.

Project Stakeholder Risks

Stakeholder Risk Rating Moderate

Risk Description: Risk Management:

Project stakeholders are expected to be broadly supportive of the project. The Bank has been engaged in disaster risk reduction efforts in shelter construction and rehabilitation and project financing will expand these investments to improve the equitable distribution of shelters.

Continued dialogue with relevant stakeholders, including Government agencies, donors, CSOs, private sector and local communities through communications, consultations, and frequent follow up

Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency:

Client Not Yet Due Both

CONTINUOUS

Implementing Agency (IA) Risks (including Fiduciary Risks)

Capacity Rating Substantial

Risk Description: LGED has been engaged in the construction and rehabilitation of cyclone shelters under an existing IDA credit. Governance risks, particularly with respect to contract management and procurement are present. Challenges to adequate maintenance continue to prevail Financial Management: LGED has relatively good capacity in financial management. Skilled FM staff will be made available to the project under a dedicated project management unit (PMU) within each agency. Currently,

Risk Management:

Project implementation will be supported by a dedicated Project Management Unit that will receive technical assistance and adequate budget to implement the project. Risks to maintenance will be carefully assessed


Client Not Yet Due Implementation

Quarterly

Risk Management:

A senior financial management specialist will be recruited within the PMU to oversee FM issues


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there are no overdue audits under any other IDA Credits implemented by LGED, and FM arrangements have been satisfactory. Procurement: The procurement of works is likely to pose risks with respect to bidding, evaluation of bids and contract management.


Quarterly

Risk Management:

Procurement risks will be mitigated through the use of large contract packages (ICB) managed from Dhaka, as well as by review and award of the procurement packages by a procurement panel.



CONTINUOUS

Governance Rating Substantial


Some governance risks exist for the project, in contract management and procurement, given the size and nature of the contracts for construction

The project will continue to be ring-fenced to ensure transparency in contracting through the use of a Procurement Panel, large ICB contracts, and through the use of a GAAP


Both Not Yet Due Implementation

CONTINUOUS

Risk Management:

The project will ringfence procurement risks to the greatest extent possible, with a procurement panel, ICB to attract international bidders, and disclosure requirements in the bidding process. Construction quality will be monitored by an independent supervision consultant. In addition, active monitoring by the Bank team with the Dhaka based staff and consultants and frequent visits to the field would help in timely action in case of irregularity.



CONTINUOUS

Project Risks

Design Rating Moderate


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The technical designs of the cyclone shelters pose very low risks. The types of shelters have been developed and tested under previous investments.

The design will continue to be seek feedback for improvements through engagement with local stakeholder groups to discuss any issues.



CONTINUOUS

Social and Environmental Rating Moderate


The construction phases may cause unforseen environmental or social impacts

Site specific EMPs and SMPs will be prepared in line with the project’s ESMF/TDF Land acquisition is not anticipated under the project, however an RPF will be prepared to guide any site specific SEVCDs or RAPs, should tribal population be found in the area or if land acquisition be unavoidable.



Quarterly

Program and Donor Rating Low


While several donors are active in disaster risk reduction efforts, the Bank has been the lead financier on the construction and rehabilitation of multipurpose cyclone shelters. Under previous IDA Credits, several donors provided co-financing to the continued construction of shelters.

Continued engagement with lead donors and international agencies working in the coastal areas


Both In Progress Both

CONTINUOUS

Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability Rating Moderate


The remote sites of many of the cyclone shelters, and the high numbers of shelters to be financed under the project will make it difficult to monitor construction quality in each site, thereby posing a risk to delivery monitoring and sustainability of the investments

Switching to steel shelter construction would alleviate many of these issues. An ICT monitoring system will be developed to assist in a more efficient and accountable monitoring system within LGED



CONTINUO

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US

Overall Risk

Overall Implementation Risk: Rating Substantial

Risk Description:

The overall implementation risk of the project is rated Substantial. Construction of shelters, while not technically challenging, will require access to remote areas, and adequate supervision of construction to ensure quality. Broader governance issues also contribute to this rating.

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Annex 5: Implementation Support Plan BANGLADESH: Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project

Strategy and Approach for Implementation Support 1. The strategy for implementation support plan has been developed based on the risk assessment through the ORAF process. All risk categories have been rated as “Moderate (M)” or “Substantial (S)”: (i) stakeholder (M); (ii) implementing agency capacity (S); (iii) governance (S); (iv) design (M); (v) social and environmental (M); (vi) program and donors (L); and (vii) sustainability (M). The strategy incorporated in the project design to mitigate these risks is summarized below.

2. Stakeholder. Project stakeholders are expected to be broadly supportive of the project. The coastal population benefits from access to safe haven in the event of a natural disaster, as well as by having well-constructed primary schools. Government departments that are secondary stakeholders, such as the Directorate of Disaster Management, or the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education, will be formally convened through a Project Steering Committee (PSC) as well as informally consulted on the project. Bank teams will continue to ensure open dialogue among all stakeholders, including development partners during supervision missions.

3. Capacity. LGED’s capacity to implement Bank financed projects is good, and there is significant experience in procurement and financial management. The project will finance procurement and financial management specialists under a dedicated Project Management Unit. A procurement panel will assist with the bid evaluation for large ICB contracts. The Bank team will continue to closely monitor procurement and financial management under the project, including through forensic audits, the right to audit contractors, and through following up on disclosure requirements in country.

4. Governance. The project will mitigate governance risks through a procurement panel to ringfence the project in procurement, and improve project performance through ICB contracts, steel shelters, an ICT monitoring system, and project level grievance redress mechanisms.

5. Fraud and Corruption. Bank will enhance oversight in the areas of procurement supervision and financial management. In addition the GAAP will provide an additional tool to increase supervision and mitigate some of these risks.

6. Design. LGED will continue to look for ways to improve designs in shelter construction. These include optimizing the foundation design as well as using structural steel frame instead of reinforced concrete. .

7. Social and Environmental. Social and environmental risks will be mitigated through the development site specific of EIA/EMP and SA/SMP, devised by qualified and experienced consultants. If applicable, these consultants will also oversee the development of RAPs and SEVCDs. The Bank’s social and environmental safeguard specialists will ensure that the required safeguard documents are specific and comprehensive yet practical and achievable. The Bank team will ensure that sufficient training on safeguards issues are conducted, and that

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adequate resources will be allocated for implementation of the EMP/SMP/RAP/TDP and monitoring.

8. Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability. The remote sites of the shelters and the high number of shelters to be financed under the project will make it difficult to monitor construction, particularly in remote sites. Switching to steel construction will alleviate many of these issues. In addition, an ICT monitoring system will allow real time monitoring of construction issues. Finally, assistance to build the capacity of SMCs will help to address maintenance issues.

9. The Project will be supervised jointly by World Bank staff and GoB at least twice a year during the first two years. Annual implementation reviews will be carried out jointly by the GoB and the Bank. A Mid-Term Review will be carried out in late 2018 to evaluate progress and make necessary adjustments. Within six months of the closing of the project, LGED will prepare an Implementation Completion Report (ICR) for submission to the World Bank and GoB.

Implementation Support Plan

Primary Focus of Implementation Support Time Focus Skills Needed Resource

Estimate Partner

Role First twelve months

• TOR preparation (completed)

• Selection of all consultants

• Disbursement of first contract package

• Detailed design and bidding documents for second package completed

• Procurement Panel formed

• Safeguards

• Technical (civil engineering, and ICT expertise

• Safeguards • Financial

management • Procurement

Country office staff (safeguards, procurement, financial management) engages with LGED as needed, with formal reviews about two times. Headquarters team (TTL, engineers) visit twice

12-24 months • Steel shelter design and implementation

• Procurement Panel operational

• Project implementation

• Technical (engineering, ICT, TTL)


management • Procurement • M&E

Full team supervision twice a year

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• Monitoring and supervision

24-60 months • Steel shelter design and implementation

• Procurement Panel operational

• Project implementation

• Monitoring and supervision

• Mid-term review

• Technical (engineering, TTL)


management • Procurement • M&E

Full team supervision twice a year

60-66 months • Final shelter packages awarded and under construction

• Effective ICT monitoring system adopted

• Draft ICR

• TTL, engineers, ICT specialist

Final full team supervision

Other Skills Mix Required

Skills Needed Number of Staff Weeks Number of Trips Comments Task Team Leader 1 staff member: 17

weeks 4 2 trip + 2 weeks per

project year + 1 extra week in the first year.

Civil Engineer 1 staff members: 16 weeks

4 2 trip + 2 weeks per project year

ICT Specialist 1 staff members: 8 weeks

4 1 trip + 2 week per project year

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Annex 6: Governance and Accountability Action Plan (GAAP) BANGLADESH: Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project

Introduction 1. This Governance and Accountability Action Plan (GAAP) for the Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project (MDSP) outlines a framework for actions, institutional arrangements, and specific measures to improve governance and minimize fraud and corruption risks in the project. This GAAP reflects the responsibilities of the implementing agency, the Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) and the World Bank, to facilitate effective and appropriate use of the funds for the project. 2. This plan is based on an assessment of the governance risks, particularly fraud and corruption, the context for addressing Governance and Anti-Corruption (GAC) issues in Bangladesh and specifically for the entities involved in MDSP. It is based on Bank experience in addressing governance and anticorruption issues with the LGED as an implementing partner. The GAAP will be adjusted as necessary during implementation to reflect governance issues which may emerge and/or to strengthen or add actions. It will be monitored regularly through indicators and reflected in monthly progress reports by the implementing agency, as well as in World Bank implementation supervision reports and aide memoires for supervision missions.

Country Context and Background 3. The Government of Bangladesh has already introduced a National Integrity Strategy (NIS) and Bangladeshi Right to Information Act, 2009, is under implementation. By this time, an Information Commission has been established. Though many steps have been taken in this area, Bangladesh still has a long way to go in combatting corruption and improving governance. 4. LGED is the designated implementing agency for many large scale government and externally financed projects in rural and urban infrastructure. As such, it manages large scale contracts. This contract management takes placein a broader socio-political context that is affected by political economy considerations, short term planning, poor incentive structures and apparent endemic corruption in contracting. Together with several development partners, LGED has already introduced several measures to improve governance and transparency. For example, LGED along with the Central Procurement Technical Unit (CPTU) under the Ministry of Planning have established mechanisms for to improve transparency in the procurement system, including the use of electronic procurement (E-GP) for local procurement. LGED is one of four agencies targeted under the Public Procurement Reform Project-II (PPRP-II), which is implemented by CPTU and financed by the World Bank. This project has trained over 750 officers in LGED on E-GP, and LGED has committed to achieve 100% E-GP by 2016. In addition, several project supported by development partners have led to a joint development and monitoring of project specific procurement risk mitigation frameworks, that have served to strengthen awareness and capacity within LGED. 5. These efforts notwithstanding, LGED continues to face challenges in project implementation mainly related to quality control and construction supervision. LGED needs to take necessary measures to ensure the quality of construction materials, as well as the quality of construction

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works as per specification through effective monitoring and supervision of works. The concerned Superintending Engineer and Executive Engineer in the field have to introduce effective monitoring systems to carry out the laboratory tests of construction works and materials as per specification.

6. The major components of the project include (i) Construction and Rehabilitation of Shelters (US$356 million); (ii) Project management, M&E, Training (US$19 million), and (iii) Contingent Emergency Response (US$0 million).

Institutional Arrangements 7. Local Government Division (LGD) under the Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development and Cooperatives, is the government ministry responsible for local government policy and implementation in Bangladesh and is the institutional champion for a stronger local government ownership over local government functions. It works closely with other government ministries and development partners on project preparation, implementation, and management of development projects. LGED is also the executing agency for several World Bank financed projects, including the Municipal Governance Support Project, the Local Government Support Project II (LGSP II), Rural Roads, and Component B of the Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (ECRRP). 8. LGED is the leading agency under LGD to implement government and externally financed projects. It has an exceptionally strong capacity for planning and project management, and has a highly experienced cadre of professional staff. In addition, LGED has gained significant experience in the construction of multipurpose disaster shelters through the implementation of Component B of ECCRP, as well as through two additional financing operations, which financed the construction and rehabilitation of multipurpose disaster shelters. Because of the previous engagement with the LGED through previous projects, the institutional weaknesses and major governance and corruption risks for the proposed project are mostly known, and are primarily related to procurement processes and the implementation of quality works . This has contributed to a detailed risk assessment and the design of the mitigation measures presented in this GAAP. Governance and Corruption Risks 9. The governance and corruption risks in the proposed project fall into three major categories: (i) weak governance; (ii) local institutional capacity; and (iii) delivery monitoring and sustainability. 10. Governance Risks: Bangladesh is trying to improve effective and transparent contracting processes through different measures, such as introducing e-GP on a large scale. LGED has already introduced several measures to improve accountability and transparency. In addition, lessons learned from other large scale infrastructure investment projects as well as other Bank financed projects in Bangladesh will help to inform MDSP in various mechanisms that can be used for improved governance. For example, the use of procurement panels to conduct technical evaluations, greater transparency in stating relationships between bidders and government

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officials, and the use of the Right to Information (RTI) act to ensure that all processes and outcomes are transparent, fully disclosed, and publicly available. 11. Local Institutional Capacity Risks: The field level supervision staff of LGED have been trained and instructed to ensure the quality of construction works. The lab tests and field tests to be carried out must be undertaken according to the specification of works. The concered Superintending Engineer and Executive Engineer have introduced effective monitoring systems to ensure the quality and reliability of laboratory tests of the project works. Some specialized tests such as: reinforcement steel tests, bridge bearing tests, etc. are being carried out in BUET/KUET, Engineering University laboratories. Yet capacity gaps continue to exits primarily as the specialization does not cover the whole area. Some remote sites under MDSP may suffer lack of supervision and monitoring. 12. Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability Risks: The project’s long term sustainability and the effectiveness of the project’s interventions are largely dependent on the quality of materials and construction. In addition to the governance risks identified in the previous paragraphs, additional risks in terms of monitoring material quality on site is a challenge in any construction project. This is a particular challenge under the project, as many of the sites are remote and difficult to access, so supervision on site for the quality of construction will remain a challenge. Actions to Mitigate Governance and Corruption Risks 13. To mitigate the governance risks, the procurement packages for the construction and rehabilitation of multipurpose shelters would be grouped into large contracts that would be procured through international competitive bidding (ICB) procedure. This would allow for greater economies of scale in the construction process, and attract international and reputable contractors. 14. In addition, the technical evaluation of all contracts will be done through an independent Procurement Panel made up of technical specialists that would undertake the bid evaluation and award of ICB contracts, as specified in the procurement plan under the project. The procurement panel could be periodically reviewed during implementation, but preliminarily would consist of international/expatriate consultants and one national consultant. The terms of reference for the Procurement Panel will be agreed with the Bank. This arrangement is expected to ring-fence the procurement process for high value contracts from the broader governance challenges within the country. 15. Finally, bidding documents would require all contractors to disclose their agents and relationships with the implementing entity, with individuals employed in the implementing entity, as well as in Bangladesh. In addition, integrity pacts would be required. 16. Measures that are currently underway in LGED will also be used, so that all procurement for the project will be done through e-GP. 17. To mitigate local institutional capacity risks, the project will make use of an internationally recruited Design & Supervision (D&S) consultancy firm, who would act as the “Engineer” for

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the project. In this way, construction supervision responsibilities will be undertaken by a reputed firm, and will ensure that adequate capacity and oversight exists. This experience has worked well under the current arrangements for the Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (ECRRP). 18. To supplement the D&S consultants, an ICT monitoring system will be developed to improve the reporting, monitoring, and oversight for the project. This system is proposed to supplement existing reporting requirements, whereby field level engineers undertake additional supervisory visits, and report any problems in construction, delays, or other issues through a paper based system. The project will build a back end system, and equip field level engineers with phones or tablets that will time stamp and geo tag photos and reports in the field that will be automatically uploaded on a server in Dhaka, with real time access for the Project Director and the Chief Engineer, LGED. This system will address local risks by building capacity and capability for improved monitoring, as well as providing an extra check on the field level staff by geo-tagging and using time stamps to ensure frequent site visits. 19. Finally, on site cameras will be installed by the D&S consultants, with a live feed system to be available at any time to record construction progress, flag quality issues, and ensure adequate monitoring. 20. To mitigate delivery risks, the project will build on the experiences of ECRRP Additional Financing 2 to gradually shift to the construction of steel shelters. The quality of a steel building can easily be monitored with significantly less supervision required on-site. High quality control will give a stronger and longer lasting building. The quality of reinforced concrete on the other hand, is reliant on many factors which often come down to effective supervision and testing on site at the time of concreting. Given the level of supervision and remote nature of many of the sites it is argued that maintaining quality of concrete will always be a difficult task. This will affect long term durability in particular. Switching to steel construction will help to ensure improved delivery and sustainability of the project’s investments. 21. In addition, the project will look towards improving capacity of the School Management Committees (SMCs) to undertake minor inspections and repairs of shelters, as well as to provide periodic inspections during construction. SMCs are volunteer community-based groups that care for primary school buildings, undertaking minor repair and upkeep to the buildings. It is expected that these SMCs will help to identify any initial delivery risks through and immediately following the construction process. In addition, they will serve as an important first stop in monitoring the building’s maintenance, and reporting any major maintenance works. Efforts to improve the capacity of these SMCs are a key step to strengthening the sustainability of the project. 22. The GAAP matrix attached proposes actions for each of the above issues, timeline for each action, and responsible agency for implementation.

Monitoring arrangements 23. The GAAP will be monitored regularly through indicators and reflected in progress reports by

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the implementing agencies, as well as in World Bank implementation supervision reports and aide memoires of supervision missions. The GAAP matrix will be used widely for monitoring purposes. Any ‘early warning’ indicators of governance and accountability risks will be monitored regularly so that corrective measures could be carried out promptly. A Governance Specialist will also be included in the Bank supervision team to strengthen the dialogue on the governance and accountability issues with the respective implementing agencies.

Bank Supervision 24. The project will require intensive supervision by Bank staff. Supervision arrangements for this project, particularly for procurement and also engineering are extensive. Bank supervision missions will be more frequent at the start of the project and would involve qualified staff in all disciplines. The Bank will also conduct regular monitoring between supervision missions. 25. The GAAP will be adjusted as necessary during implementation to reflect governance issues which may emerge and/or to add actions. Considering the track record of the main implementing agency, fund flow and oversight arrangements and subject to meeting the agreed GAAP, the implementing agencies will have adequate systems to account and report for the project resources and expenditures accurately, and ensure that the project funds are utilized for the intended purpose.

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Matrix of Actions MDSP Governance and Accountability Action Plan

Issues/Risks/ Objective

Actions Agency responsible Timeline Early Warning Indicators to Trigger Additional Action

Governance Risks Need to ringfence the project from the broader governance and accountability concerns in Bangladesh

Retain independent consultants for design, construction supervision (D&S) who act as “Engineer” for the project Procurement panel established to undertake all technical reviews and awards Frequent supervision by World Bank supervision teams, including frequent site visits

LGED LGED Task team/IDA

Key staff recruited prior to start Ongoing Ongoing At least quarterly

Delays in conduct of procurement, execution of contracts, processing of payments, filing reports Evidence of quality issues through field visits.

Potential for or reduce risks of conflict of interest among participants in procurement

International Competitive Bidding (ICB) contracts for all procurement of works Declarations of no conflict of interest by LGED personnel, including members of procurement panel members, and bidders Require bidders’ statements concerning agents and other possible connections to persons involved with procurement.

LGED LGED LGED

Bidding documents prior to project approval LGED personnel by effectiveness; bidders at submission At bidding stage

Procurement red flags in ex ante and ex post review Inconsistencies with ‘need to know’ principles in procurement mapping, evidence of unauthorized access to information Delays in suo moto disclosure plan issuance/implementation

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Website and newsletter are delayed or not updated.

Local Institutional Capacity Risks Reduce risks at the local level with supervision of works and monitoring to address possible quality issues in construction

Retain independent consultants for design, construction supervision (D&S) who act as “Engineer” for the project Contract out M&E functions through M&E Consultant ICT based monitoring system for LGED field officers with geo-tagging and photo capabilities On site cameras to ensure live feed of construction sites (where possible)

LGED LGED LGED LGED

Key staff recruited prior to start Contracted in 1st year; quarterly reports Ongoing Ongoing

Delays in conduct of procurement, execution of contracts, processing of payments, filing reports Changes in frequency of reports, frequency of edits to reporting system Unauthorized entry into monitoring system Nature and frequency of complaints

Delivery and Sustainability Risks

Poor construction quality leading to poor sustainability of the project

Shift to steel shelter construction to improve quality oversight, durability, maintenance and speed of construction Engagement with SMCs to identify ongoing monitoring, maintenance etc.

CSC, LGED CSC, LGED

Ongoing Ongoing

Nature and frequency of complaints

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Annex 7: Social and Environmental Safeguards BANGLADESH: Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project

I. Environmental Category & Safeguard Policies:

1. The new shelter/school building with access road will be constructed at the same premises of the existing schools. The specific locations will be identified during implementation stage. The environmental impacts of the project are expected to be mostly construction related and limited within the project boundaries. The MDSP is classified as a Category B project, since no significant and/or irreversible adverse environmental issues are expected from the construction of small scale infrastructure. The policy on environment assessment (OP/BP 4.01) has been triggered for the proposed operation to ensure that the project design and implementation will be environmentally sound and sustainable. Past experience from similar project ECRRP, does not envisage any land acquisition or population displacement. Lands owned by the sponsoring local educational and social institutions will be used for construction of new shelter and horizontal extension of existing ones. In cases of unavailability of institutional lands, participatory approaches of voluntary donation, direct purchase or exchange by the sponsoring institutions will be followed for obtaining lands. Although it is highly unlikely that private lands and/or public land from private users will be required; considering any chance of extreme circumstances in future when LGED may require the acquisition of private lands and/or public land from private uses, World Bank’s Operational Policy on Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) has been triggered to effectively manage involuntary resettlement. In addition, the social assessment found that tribal people are present in several of the coastal districts. As a result, the policy on Indigenous People (OP/BP4.10) has been triggered to ensure that tribal people are fully included in the project’s intended benefits.

II. Summary of Assessment of Sample Locations of MDSP and ECRRP Project

2. The project interventions under the MDSP involving social and environmental issues and impacts include (i) construction and improvement of multipurpose disaster shelters and (ii) improvement of shelter connecting roads.

Environmental Issues and Impact

3. Each of the activity under ECRRP was environmentally assessed before construction. Baseline surveys were done at each subproject and the site specific management plan was prepared. The upazilla Engineer or Sub-Assistant Engineer of LGED and the Field Resident Engineer of the Consultant team mainly conducted the screening work and the environmental specialist of Design and Supervision Consultants (DSC) endorsed the screening format. Most of the screening checklist revealed that the sub-projects did not generate any significant adverse impact on pre-construction, construction and post-construction phases in the physical and social environment of the area. 4. The investment on the physical component of the project will yield net positive impacts. Project benefits for multipurpose disaster shelters include (i) ensuring safe sheltering of the project beneficiaries at the event of any disasters including cyclone, (ii) provide congenial learning environment and sufficient space in the classrooms at multipurpose shelters, (iii) overall improved schooling facilities and environment to be ensured at multipurpose disaster shelters conducive to children’s learning, and (iv) affected people also will be able to bring their cattle to keep at safe shelters at the event of any disasters. There is provision of Access Road and Associated Structures to the Disaster Shelters so that the shelters can be accessed safely. This will be very useful for the users particularly students to commute with comfort particularly

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during rainy season. Separate floor for sheltering livestock will save quite a number of cattle and other livestock. The site will be developed and enhanced through a Land Use Plan and Tree Plantation. The ancillary provisions in the shelters stemmed out from environmental considerations. These provisions will be used both during the time of emergency as well as during normal activities of the schools. These provisions include solar panel benefits for clean energy for the users. One of the most important needs during and after cyclones is the availability of drinking water. To deter this, tube-wells on raised platform pumping safe water will be installed in the shelters. There will be provisions of rain water harvesting facilities in the shelters. First-Aid Boxes will be placed for each Shelter to take care of immediate requirements and there will be Separate Room for Pregnant Women during occupancy in the shelters. Provision of Store Rooms will solve storing of materials otherwise kept here and there creating environmental problems. 5. The negative environmental impacts will be triggered mostly from the construction related activities. In general the impacts due to shelter construction activities may include: drainage congestion, noise pollution, air pollution, water pollution, organic and construction waste pollution etc. Temporary drainage congestion often results from obstruction to natural flow of drainage water due to the storage of materials or improper dumping. Noise and air pollution could results from a wide range of construction activities, including foundation pilling, movement of vehicles, operation of construction equipment and generators. Water pollution may result from discharge of waste (from labor shed or site) and spills and leaks of oils/ chemical into water bodies (e.g., drain, pond, khal, river). In addition, the Environmental Health and Safety (EHS) issues like occupational safety of workers, movement of students at construction area should take on account during construction. However, these impacts are mostly temporary and limited within subproject boundary.

Social Issues and Impact

6. A preliminary social assessment (SA) has been carried out through reviewing relevant literature and consultation with the likely beneficiaries and others stakeholders at the local level. The SA comprised of (i) beneficiary assessment, (ii) stakeholder analysis, and (iii) impacts assessments. Beneficiary assessment enabled building baseline socio-economic profiles at the project area; the vulnerability of the community to natural disasters and the need for disaster shelters. The SA identified the beneficiaries at sample locations and consulted them for their expectations, issues and concerns. The social assessment also included impact assessment and analysis. The preliminary SA, referring to the experience in the ongoing ECRRP for construction and improvement of multipurpose disaster shelters and connecting roads, confirms that the potential sponsoring educational and social institutions largely possess sufficient unused land for construction of disaster shelters. The shelter connecting roads to be improved will be existing rural roads with designated lands by the community and local government institutions. The population in the project district includes some tribal peoples having their own indigenous language and culture. But they are embedded in the mainstream population for their livelihoods, land tenancy and political institutions. Tribal people are not expected to be affected by the project interventions. However, the Bank’s policy on Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) has been triggered for the project. Given the approach for obtaining lands for shelter sites and connecting roads, the project has triggered World Bank Operational Policies on Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) and a resettlement policy framework is included in the Environmental and Social Management Framework and Tribal Development Framework (ESMF/TDF). 7. Construction of new shelters and horizontal extension of existing shelters will take place and limited in the existing lands owned by the sponsoring local educational and social

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institutions. While the connecting roads will be developed using the existing road alignments and road reserves identified in consultation and agreement with the community. Selection of the project interventions in each district will be done through all inclusive consultative process. LGED will ensure equitable benefits to all community groups, the very poor, women and vulnerable groups and select to carry out subproject activities on existing and available lands only. The project does not envisage any involuntary acquisition of lands or displacement of peoples. Where the sponsoring institutions do not own required lands, additional land will be obtained through voluntary donation, direct purchase, exchange or contribution against compensation by the institutions. Similar approach of land taking will be followed for improvement of connection roads. In cases where such methods will not be feasible, but a proposed shelter site is essential in all respect, involuntary acquisition can be last a resort to obtain lands.

III. Approach to Address Safeguard Issues

Environment

8. The MDSP will use a phased approach for constructing shelters at different coastal districts throughout the implementation period. The exact locations, size and types of the shelters will be finalized during respective subproject implementation phase. Since, the subprojects sites are not identified and the site specific environmental impacts are not yet available, a framework approach has been adopted by the borrower. The implementing agency LGED developed an Environment and Social Management Framework & Tribal Development Framework (ESMF/TDF) based on overall environment assessment, the findings of environmental studies of ECRRP, field level consultation, country’s overall policy framework, national legislation, World Bank safeguard policies, and institutional capabilities related to the environment aspects. The ESMF &TDF will be the guiding document for subproject-specific: (i) environmental screening; (ii) impacts assessment; (iii) consultation and disclosure; (IV) preparation of environmental management plan (EMP) with budgeting etc. Before implementation, each shelter will require environmental assessment/screening to identify and avoid environmental impacts. 9. The subproject specific EMP will be an integral part of the Bill of Quantities (BOQ) of bid document. The ESMF/TDF included relevant environmental codes of practices (ECoP) and special environmental clauses (SECs) for constructions/civil works, which would be appended in the Technical Specification of the biding documents. 10. Although it is highly unlikely that any designated physical cultural resources will be affected by the subprojects, the ESMF/TDF has provision of ‘Chance find’ procedures conforming to applicable legislations on heritage. Also, the relevant Environmental, Health and Safety Guidelines of the World Bank Group/International Finance Corporation (IFC) will be applicable to the project.

Social

11. LGED will identify sites and design subprojects for construction and improvement of disaster shelters and improvement of shelter connecting roads using all inclusive consultative process. Considering the fact that subproject sites will be identified and engineering design will be done during the implementation period, The ESMF/TDF will guide the planning and design of subprojects on social development and safeguard compliance during the course of project implementation. Subproject design will be carried out on an annual basis when subproject activities will be selected and designed for financing under the project. Social screening and

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assessment (SA) will be carried out as part of the subproject design that will include a social impact assessment (SIA), where social safeguard compliance issues are involved. Based on results of SA, Social Management Plan (SMP) will be prepared for each construction package covering social inclusion, participation, grievance response and monitoring and evaluation. In areas where the screening determined tribal people, a Small Ethnic and Vulnerable Communities Development Plan (SEVCD) will be prepared, and free, prior, informed consultations will be held. In the circumstances where involuntary resettlement cannot be avoided fully, the SMP will include a resettlement action plan (RAP). All SMPs and any TDP and RAP will be forwarded to World Bank for review and clearance before bidding process. SMP/RAP for annual construction programs will be disclosed in country and in Bank InfoShop before contract mobilization after Bank review. 12. The ESMF &TDF also includes social screening and assessment facility, a resettlement policy framework, and social inclusion mechanisms. Among other issues, the ESMF&TDF provides (a) a legal and policy framework outlining the principles and guidelines which will be used to obtaining lands and mitigate the adverse impacts; (b) facility for screening of social development and safeguard issues related to participatory approach on obtaining lands and involuntary resettlement; (c) mitigation principles and planning guideline; (d) a grievance redress procedure for the beneficiary communities and affected persons; (e) stakeholder consultation and participation framework; (f) tribal development framework; and (g) arrangement for implementation and monitoring and evaluation. The ESMF &TDF provides the guidelines for preparation of SMPs and any TDP and RAP as necessary. 13. Social inclusion and gender mainstreaming. Site specific designs will ensure that the vulnerable section of the communities including the very poor, women, traditional minority communities, disabled and children get access to benefits. Communities from each such group will be engaged in project cycle from identification to design and implementation and their options will be given due consideration in order to maximize beneficiary feedback under the project. Site specific information will be disclosed in the public domain including the social management framework, tribal development framework and any subsequent social management, tribal development and resettlement action plans. Specific measures will be designed on (i) consultation, feedback and grievance-redress mechanisms to alert project staff to problems identified by beneficiaries, affected people, and other stakeholders; (ii) participatory planning to ensure the project meets the needs of beneficiaries; and (iii) participatory monitoring to identify problems. The project will promote School Management Committees (SMCs) as a gateway for formal involvement of the communities.

IV. Community Consultation and Training

14. Extensive discussions will be carried out with communities during the subproject identification, planning and implementation process. The consultation process will cover all social groups including women, very poor and minority communities. LGED will prepare a Bangla translation of the SMF and an operational guideline for SMF implementation and ensure that copies of the translated documents are available at their headquarters, at the sponsoring local institutions and other local places accessible to the general public. In areas where there is a tribal population, specific consultations will be held with local tribal communities focusing on free, prior and informed consultations. The field level LGED relevant staff including community representatives in the GRCs will undergo training on ESMF &TDF conducted by the DSC. The M&E Consultant will design and conduct orientation and dry run at the field level offices of the LGED on social development and safeguard compliance as per the provision in the ESMF &TDF.

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V. Grievance Response Mechanism

15. The project will establish a grievance response mechanism (GRM) to answer to queries, receive suggestions and address complaints and grievances about any irregularities in application of the guidelines adopted in this framework for inclusive project design, and assessment and mitigation of social and environmental impacts. Based on consensus, the procedure will help to resolve issues/conflicts amicably and quickly, saving the aggrieved persons from having to resort to expensive, time-consuming legal action. The procedure will however not pre-empt a person’s right to go to the courts of law. Grievance response focal points will be available at the Union or Paurasava (municipality) in the shelter catchment area and at the project level within LGED. A Grievance Redress Committee (GRC) will be formed for each subproject and will be authorized to deal with all suggestions and complaints at the subproject level. The membership of the GRCs will ensure proper presentation of complaints and grievances as well as impartial hearings and investigations, and transparent resolutions. 16. LGED will ensure that communities are fully informed about the GRM and their rights to offer suggestions and make complaints, and the different mechanisms through which they can do so, including grievances related to the land acquisition process and physical displacement. 17. ICT Monitoring: ICT monitoring will be used to enhance the efficiency of MDSP by providing a single-stop instrument to monitor progress of construction, provide visual images to assess quality, and monitor the number and frequency of visits from LGED engineers and World Bank teams tasked with supervision. The smartphone-based ICT platform includes mechanisms for real-time monitoring of data capture, participatory tracking of project progress and irregularities, and comment submission. The platform automatically adds date and time, and GPS coordinates to form data and photos, which are transmitted upon submission to an online database. In geographic areas without mobile internet, the submission is stored on the phone memory and transmitted at a later time. The online database will be accessible to permitted users, where reports will be pinned to the shelter locations which are visible on an interactive map interface. ICT monitoring will provide in-depth and real-time snapshots of project performance in a resource-constrained environment, automatically place pressure points on identified problem shelters, inject transparency into the construction process, and motivate supervision teams and contractors.

VI. Borrower’s Capacity on Safeguard

18. The Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) has developed its institutional capacity on environmental management through the same nature of project ECRRP and another IDA funded project Rural Transport Improvement Project (RTIP-I and II). The project supported the capacity building and environmental guidelines for the LGED projects. An Environmental Unit headed by the Additional Chief Engineer (Maintenance) has been established in LGED. Through RTIP II, LGED is currently working on strengthening of the Environmental Unit and also the training of the LGED officials and staff on environmental management.

VII. Safeguard Supervision and Monitoring

19. The existing Project Management Unit (PMU) for the development and management of the multipurpose cyclone shelters program under ECRRP is the proposed PMU of MDSP-II. The PMU would be strengthened with an additional Deputy Project Director (DPD) and 10 professional staff along with a Senior Environment Specialist and a Senior Social Specialist. In addition LGED will procure the design and supervision consultant (DSC) firm and monitoring

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and evaluation (M&E) firm. Each of them will have their own environment specialist and social development specialist separately. The environment specialist of DSC consultant will prepare the environment screening/assessment report along with EMPs. If additional environmental assessment is necessary, LGED will take necessary steps for carrying out the assessment (e.g., through hiring a Consultant). The Social Development Specialists of DSC will prepare the social screening/assessment report along with SMPs, SEVCDs and RAPs. PMU with support from the M&E consultant will review and verify all the reports. The LGED will also be responsible for getting necessary environmental clearance from the Department of Environment (DoE). 20. The cost of the mitigation measures will be estimated and included in the bill of quantities. The civil engineering contractors will be assigned for implementation of these environmental and social mitigation measures. The field level Executive Engineer of each district with the help of the construction supervision consultants would be responsible for supervising construction work and environment and social management. The M&E consultants will prepare a brief environmental supervision manual in the beginning of their contract to confirm the environmental supervision procedures and systems parties during the sub-project implementation. The M&E consultant will also oversee the implementation of the ESMF/TDF and the EMPs, SMPs, SEVCDs and RAPs. The PMU, with the help of Environment and Social Specialists will submit the overall quarterly progress report on environment and social compliance to the WB. 21. Consultation and Access to Information: The ESMF/TDF was prepared in consultation with the key stakeholders including the LGED field level staffs, contractors and communities. National consultation workshop has been planned by LGED before Appraisal stage. The ESMF/TDF along with the Bengali translation was disclosed on LGED’s website on October 24, 2014. Prior to disclosure, a national consultation workshop was held, and comments from the workshop, public, and World Bank were incorporated into the final document. Upon request from LGED, the documents were disclosed at World Bank’s Infoshop on October 30, 2014. The subproject specific environmental screening/assessment will also be disclosed before the contract mobilization.

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Annex 8: Economic Analysis BANGLADESH: Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project

1. An economic analysis was performed for the Bangladesh Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project to assess the rate of return of capital investments in the new and existing multipurpose shelters, rural roads, and technical assistance. The new multipurpose shelters will function as primary school buildings during most part of the year. The existing shelters may serve as school buildings or other community buildings. Many of the planned and existing shelters have an area designed to keep livestock during cyclones. The rural roads component of the project is intended to connect the remote shelters to the existing road network. 2. The main benefit of constructing new shelters and rehabilitating existing shelters is to save human lives and livestock at the time of cyclones. For the rest of the year, the shelters will be used as primary schools. The connecting roads will allow for quicker evacuation to the shelters during cyclones including provision of immediate emergency and relief supplies. The roads will also provide access to the school during the rest of the year. 3. There will be three main benefit areas from the shelters:

• Number of human lives saved by shelters

• Number of livestock saved by shelters

• Educational and other ancillary benefits from increased number of classrooms

4. As for the construction of the roads connecting the shelters to the existing road network will have following benefits:

• Faster evacuation of people and livestock to the shelters

• Provision of emergency food and other supplies to the shelter before disaster (preparedness)

• Faster relief delivery to the shelter after disaster

• Effective access to the primary schools during the school year

5. For the purposed of this analysis we only consider the main benefit of the project, saving human lives. We note that benefit of saving livestock from cyclones is very important to the population at risk. The surviving livestock provide much needed food security as well as ready liquid assets immediately after the disaster. We include below some estimates of livestock saved, but they do not enter the CBA calculations. 6. Even though the shelters and the roads will have non-disaster related uses as schools and access to education and markets, we do not quantify these significant benefits. Thus, estimates are conservative.

Costs calculations

7. For the purposes of the economic analysis, the total cost of the project is taken to be 370 million dollars to be disbursed in the amounts described in Table 1 over the five year period from 2016 to 2020. Following the end of the project the continued operating and maintenance costs of the project is considered to be between 1.0 percent of the overall costs.

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Table 1: Distribution of project costs

Project duration (Years) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Costs (m$) 20 90 100 100 61.3

Counterfactual benefit calculations without the project

To understand the counterfactual of potential losses from the cyclones, we begin with the measured benefits of the 450 existing cyclone shelters. We assume in the absence of the project no new shelters will be built and the existing shelters will not be rehabilitated. We assume an average existing shelter has the design capacity to shelter 1000 human lives. We estimate the potential benefits for a range of effective capacity of the existing shelters. Table 2 shows that the total number of lives that can be saved by the existing 450 shelters is between 45,000 and 405,000. Assuming only half of the existing shelters have killas to save livestock and each killa has the design capacity to hold 200 livestock, the number of livestock saved is between 4,500 and 40,500. Note, a higher effective capacity of existing shelters imply restoration of such a shelter to its design capacity will have fewer benefits. Conversely, restoration of an existing shelter with low effective capacity to its full design capacity will have higher benefits from the perspective of the project. Table 2: Effective human and livestock capacity scenarios for 450 existing shelters

Effective Capacity Lives per shelter Total lives Livestock per

shelter Total Livestock

90% 900 405000 180 40500 75% 750 337500 150 33750 50% 500 225000 100 22500 30% 300 135000 60 13500 10% 100 45000 20 4500

Economic Analysis

8. The main benefit component of this project is saving human lives. Following Croitoru and Sarraf (2012) we use the average value of statistical life (VoSL) to be $9,000 per individual.7 The calculation of the VoSL is always contentious. We acknowledge that this value is rather low. This does not imply we value the lives any less. By choosing this value we show the economic viability of the project despite the conservative estimate of VoSL. 9. We calculate the project benefits based on the design capacity of the shelters. We acknowledge that under emergency conditions a shelter may provide refuge to many more than

7 The value of statistical life is often used to estimate the benefits of reducing the risk of death (EPA 2000, Viscusi 2003). The value of statistical life is an estimate of the financial value society places on reducing the average number of deaths by one. A related concept is the value of statistical life year, which estimates the value society places on reducing the risk of premature death, expressed in terms of saving a statistical life year. The value of statistical life is most appropriately measured by estimating how much society is willing to pay to reduce the risk of death.

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its design capacity. However, by using the design capacity of the shelters we underestimate the benefits. 10. The project benefits are based on the following assumption:

• The 552 new shelters will each have the design capacity of 1430 individuals.

• The 450 existing shelters once rehabilitated will each be reinstated to their design capacity of 1000 individuals.

11. The additional benefit from the project will depend on the existing effective capacity of the existing shelters. That is, if the existing shelters are in extremely good condition of 90 percent capacity, rehabilitating them will save only 100 additional lives. On the other hand, if the shelters are in poor condition of 10 percent capacity, then rehabilitation will save 900 lives per shelter.

• The shelters will be operated and maintained for the next 15 years after the end of the project. Even though the shelters may have a longer useful life, we only consider a total project life of 20 years.

• The discount rate is 12 percent.

12. Bangladesh is a global hotspot for tropical cyclones. Nearly every year, cyclones hit the country’s coastal regions in the early summer (April–May) or late rainy season (October–November). Between 1877 and 1995, Bangladesh was hit by 154 cyclones, including 43 severe cyclonic storms, 43 cyclonic storms, and 68 tropical depressions. Since 1995, 5 severe cyclones have hit the country’s coast. On average, a severe cyclone strikes the country every three years (GOB 2009). As a result, lives and property in lower-lying coastal districts along the Bay of Bengal are highly vulnerable to inundation from cyclone-induced storm surges. Cyclone Sidr (November 2007) and Cyclone Aila (May 2009) provide recent examples of devastating storm-surge in Bangladesh (Dasgupta and others, 2014). 13. Cyclone Sidr (2007) was considered to be a super cyclone that could return once in every ten years. Table 3 shows the definitions of severe, very severe, and super cyclones and their respective probabilities of occurrences in Bangladesh.

Table 3: Cyclone types wind speed and probability of occurrences

Cyclone types Speed KM/h probability per year Super cyclone > 220 10% Very severe cyclone 119-220 20% Severe cyclone 90-119 30% Source: Dasgupta et al (2014)

14. Even though a super cyclone like Sidr is expected to hit Bangladesh once in ten years, it does not mean that cyclone will have the same impact in all of the project areas. In other words, the probability of occurrence of a cyclone that would necessitate the use of the shelters may be smaller. To take this factor into account, we consider two other cyclone scenarios, one in a

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hundred years and one in twenty years along with the three types of cyclones and their respective probabilities described above.8

Most conservative estimates

15. Based on the assumptions listed above we consider the hypothetical of existing shelters to be functional at 90 percent of their design capacity, and the probability of a cyclone that would necessitate the utilization of all the shelters is one in hundred years. Under this scenario we only take the benefit of human lives saved and ignore additional benefits from saved livestock, as well as the year-round transport and educational benefits from the rural roads and additional classrooms provided by the project. 16. We find the project to have the minimum internal rates of return (IRR) of 13.2 percent and net present value (NPV) of 26 million dollars, with the benefit costs ratio (BCR) of 1.1. Both the internal rates of return and net present value of costs and benefits of lives saved in case of a once in a hundred year cyclone show that the project is economically viable.

Benefits to the broader population

17. While the direct benefits to the population as measured by the increased capacity of cyclone shelters is provided above, additional estimates for shelter provided to the total population in the coastal areas was also calculated. Using a “business as usual” approach, the baseline was calculated as the case where no additional shelters would be built between 2014-2020. Using the death to exposure ratio from Super Cyclone Sidr (0.001; 1 death out of 1000 exposed people), the analysis projects the cost benefit to the population in the targeted districts over the next five years. 18. MDSP targets nine districts among which five were affected by Cyclone Sidr (Bhola, Barisal, Pirojpur and Patuakali) and five are coastal districts not having been affected by Sidr: Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Feni, Laksimpur, Noakhali. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (Bangladesh Population and Housing Census 20119) approximately 23 million people living in these districts is exposed to cyclone risk. Following the UN population growth estimates (constant mortality, medium scenario) the population at risk is expected to reach 28.6 million in 2020. Assuming that under MDSP, around 83% of population within each of the targeted districts would be covered by an accessible cyclone shelter, the estimates are projected forward for the population living in the coastal area in 202010 (as shown in Column C below). 19. Based on this estimate, the IRR of the project rises to 32%.

Table 4: CBA for the coastal population in targeted districts

Yr. Number of new

shelters

Number of Beneficiaries (Cumulative)

TOTAL BENEFITS (Mn USD)

TOTAL COSTS (Mn

USD) NPV (Mn)

8 According to the IPCC AR4, storm surges and related floods are likely to become more severe with increases in intense tropical cyclones in future (IPCC, 2007). Hence, from a practical perspective vulnerability of Bangladesh to cyclones/ storm surges may increase even more as a result of climate change. 9 http://www.bbs.gov.bd/DistrictWisePopulation.aspx?disName=All 10 Estimated as a proportion of the exposed population (28.6 million) in 2020; PAD targets 83% of the required shelters to for a full coverage. Shelter size varies from one site to other it may accommodate as much as 500 people.

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(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) 2013 1 2014 5 216,283 55 9 $45.24 2015 75 3,244,244 50 24 $47.36 2016 140 6,055,921 45 91 $57.32 2017 140 6,055,921 46 102 $118.05 2018 140 6,055,921 48 100 $128.79 2019 50 2,162,829 58 43 $135.46

TOTAL 552 23,791,120 301 370 IRR 32% Sensitivity Analysis

20. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by changing key parameters of effective capacity of existing shelters and the probability of cyclones as described above. Given that base case IRR, NPV and BCR are calculated with very conservative assumptions, more realistic assumptions regarding the effective capacity of existing shelters and the probability of more frequent cyclones highlight the possibility that the actual benefits may be much more substantial than anticipated in the most conservative case. 21. Table 5 shows the results of the sensitivity analysis. The three parts of the table show the IRR, the NPV, and the BCR respectively. In each part the top left corner cell with 90 percent effective capacity and 1 percent probability of cyclone show the smallest returns. Correspondingly, the bottom right corner with the 10 percent effective capacity and 30 percent probability of cyclones show the highest returns from the project.

Table 5: Sensitivity analysis of IRR for status of existing shelters and probability of cyclone

Effective Capacity of Existing Shelters

Probability of Cyclone

1% 5% 10% 20% 30%

IRR

90% 13.2% 46.5% 68.0% 94.5% 112.4%

75% 14.4% 48.6% 70.7% 97.8% 116.1%

50% 16.2% 52.0% 74.9% 102.9% 121.8%

30% 17.6% 54.6% 78.1% 106.7% 126.0%

10% 19.0% 57.0% 81.1% 110.3% 130.0%

NPV

90% 26 1,353 3,011 6,328 9,644

75% 53 1,487 3,280 6,866 10,452

50% 98 1,712 3,729 7,764 11,798

30% 134 1,891 4,088 8,482 12,875

10% 169 2,071 4,447 9,200 13,952

Benefit Cost Ratio

90% 1.1 5.4 10.8 21.7 32.5

75% 1.2 5.9 11.7 23.5 35.2

50% 1.3 6.6 13.2 26.4 39.6

30% 1.4 7.2 14.4 28.7 43.1

10% 1.6 7.8 15.5 31.1 46.6

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If we consider the current effective capacity of existing shelters to be at 50 percent and the scenario of a super cyclone like Sidr in the next twenty years, the project fares very well with IRR of 75 percent and NPV of about 3.7 billion dollars.

Education benefits.

22. The shelters built under the Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project (MDSP) will be used as primary schools except for the time of an event of a natural disaster. A total of 552 new shelters will be constructed under the project in the nine coastal districts of Bangladesh. The project, therefore, will also have an output of 552 functional government primary schools under Ministry of Primary and Mass Education (MoPME) and that will have an outcome in human capital development and will potentially have an impact on economic growth. 23. Conducting an economic analysis on outcomes of a single primary education project is not historically well practiced in the bank projects. Because of the difficulty and often questionable quantifying of all the ‘externalities’ of an education project; the bank rather used cost-benefit analysis for investing education sector as a whole (Vawda, Moock, Gittinger, & Patrinzos, 2001). It is perceived that an education project has many positive externalities, some are quantifiable and thus may be used in a Cost-Benefit Analysis and some are not. Studies show some positive externalities of such projects are as follows:

• Primary education is the ‘in point’ of the whole education system. The outcome of such

project has clear impact on higher wage and non-wage remuneration and other fringe benefits (Lucas, 1977).

• Schooling also reduces the cost of job searching and the regional mobility is increased with the level of education (Metcalf, 1973) (Greenwood, 1975).

• It is evident that schooling positively affects one’s health status (Leigh, 1983)

• Starting from primary school, some evidence show that more schooling is associated with the higher saving rate (Solomon, 1975).

• Studies show that schooling improves consumer’s rationality and leads to more efficient consumer activities (Michael, 1972).

• Some evidence show that schooling improves social cohesion and individual’s social behavior. Research shows schooling reduces alienation and social inequalities (Comer, 1988).

• Substantial evidences show a child’s education level and cognitive development are positively correlated to his/her parents’ level of education (Dawson, 1991). Some evidence show education of adult’s in neighborhood increases the possibility of a child’s graduating from high school (Clark, 1992).

• Education makes a child health aware and it has impact on the next generation. It is evident that child health is also positively related to parents’ education. An educated mother is more likely to have healthy children (Edwards & Grossman, 1979).

• Education also reduces crime in the society. Studies show schooling is associated with reduced criminal activity (Yamada & Kang, 1991).

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24. As the shelters will be used as primary schools, they will help educate a substantial number of children in the nine disaster prone districts and some of which literacy rate lies below the national average (PHC, 2011). According to the Annual Sector Performance Report(ASPR 2013), each government primary school has 286 students on average with a Net Enrollment Rate(NER) of 96.8%(2012). The drop-out rate of enrolled students in completing grade-5 is around 26% (2012). More than 97% of the participants of the final examination successfully pass grade-5 (ASPR, 2013). 25. An attempt to conduct a Cost-Benefit Analysis has been carried out based on the project cost of building 552 shelter-cum-schools and the benefits have been calculated from the wage difference of the workers who never went to a primary school and who only have a fifth grade education. For the sake of a conservative analysis, we have omitted the fact that a number of ‘grade-5 passed’ students will enroll in high schools and a cohort will eventually have a graduate degree in future. The data of the wages difference between two groups have been calculated from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES, 2010) conducted by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The estimated cost of building the shelters/school is projected to be US $ 221 million. On average, the wage difference between a grade-5 passed worker and a worker who never went to a primary school has been calculated as US$136 per year. The CBA is conducted based on the following assumptions:

• The beneficiary group only includes the number of students who are expected to pass

Junior School Certificate (grade-5) exams. The calculation is based on the drop-out rate and passing rates reported in ASPR-2013.

• The cost will incur in year-1 and the benefits have been calculated from year-6 to the next 30 years.

• All the opportunity costs, including the household’s cost for the education without the project scenario, have been omitted.

• Conversion rate is Tk 77/dollar and inflation rate is assumed to be zero.

26. The analysis carried out with the mentioned assumptions has the following results:

Table 6: Calculation of IRR and NPV for education benefits Base Case Sensitivity Test

Cost increase 20%

Benefit decrease 20%

Both cases

IRR 20% 18% 18% 17% NPV million USD 385 345 269 230

27. As found in the analysis, even with the most conservative assumptions, the project yields 20% internal rate of return (IRR). We have carried out some sensitivity tests about possible fluctuation in both cost and benefits around 20% and even if both issues negatively affects the project, the IRR will be as high as 17%. The Net Present Value (NPV) of the project is higher than the initial investment at 12% discount rate. 28. Conclusion: As discussed earlier, projects involved with building primary schools have more positive ‘externalities’ than the mere outcomes. Even with the conservative analysis of possible project outcomes, the IRR is still greater than 12% and NPV is greater than zero.

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References ASPR. (2013). Bangladesh Primary Education Annual Sector Performance Report. Dhaka: Directorate

of Primary Education, GoB.

Clark, R. (1992). Neighborhood Effects on Dropping out among Teenage Boys. Washington DC: Urban Institute .

Comer, J. P. (1988). Educating Poor Minority Children. Scientific American 259(5), 42-48.

Croitoru, Lelia and Sarraf, Maria (2012) “Benefits and Costs of the Informal Sector: The Case of Brick Kilns in Bangladesh”, Journal of Environmental Protection, 3, 476-484 http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2012.36058 Published Online June 2012, accessed August 14, 2014.

Dasgupta, Susmita, Mainul Huq, Zahirul Huq Khan, Manjur Murshed Zahid Ahmed, Nandan Mukherjee, Malik Fida Khan & Kiran Pandey (2014) “Cyclones in a changing climate: the case of Bangladesh”, Climate and Development, 6:2, 96-110, DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2013.868335

Dawson, D. (1991). Family Structure and Children's Health and Well-Being: Data from the 1988 National Health Interview Survey on Child Health. Journal of Marriage and the Family 53(3), 573-584.

Edwards, L. N., & Grossman, M. (1979). The Relationship between Children's Health and Intellectual Development. In S. Mushkin, & D. Dunlop, Health: What Is It Worth? Measures of Health Benefits (pp. 273-314). Elmsford, N.Y.: Pergamon Press.

Greenwood, M. (1975). Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey. Journal of Economic Literature 13(2), 397-433.

Leigh, J. (1983). Direct and Indirect Effects of Education on Health. Social Science and Medicine 17(4), 227-234.

Lucas, E. R. (1977). Hedonic Wage Equations and Psychic Wages in the Returns to Schooling. American Economic Review, 67 (4), 549-558.

Metcalf, D. (1973). Pay Dispersion, Information, and Returns to Search in a Professional Labour Market. Review of Economic Studies 40(4), 491-505.

Michael, R. (1972). The Effect of Education in Consumption. New York: Columbia University Press.

PHC. (2011). Bangladesh Population and Housing Census. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

Solomon, L. (1975). The Relation between Schooling and Savings Behavior: An Example of the Indirect Effects of Education. In Education, Income, and Human Behavior (pp. 253-293). New York: McGraw-Hill.

USEPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency) 2000, Guidelines for Preparing Economic Analyses, Office of the Administrator, EPA 240-R-00-003, September.

Vawda, A. Y., Moock, P., Gittinger, J. P., & Patrinzos, H. A. (2001). Economic Analysis of Worldbank Education Projects and Project outcome. The World Bank.

Viscusi, W. 2003, ‘The value of a statistical life: a critical review of market estimates throughout the world’, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol. 27(1), pp. 5-76

Yamada, T., & Kang, J. (1991). Crime Rates versus Labor Market Condition: Theory and Time-Series Evidence. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2012.36058%20Published%20Online%20June%202012

Annex 9: Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Needs Assessment BANGLADESH: Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project

Introduction

1. Lack of preparedness and mitigation facilities claimed huge casualties and losses during the past cyclone events in Bangladesh. One of the important preparedness measures is the End-to End warning mechanism, which is subsequently connected with provision of safe shelters for vulnerable communities. To serve the community properly, construction of new cyclone shelters is required and, in most of the cases, the responsible authority is taking initiatives for construction without proper planning. Under the Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (ECRRP), a study was commissioned to review the existing stock of multipurpose disaster shelters, to identify the deficit of multipurpose shelters based on an estimated need; and to develop a multi-criteria ranking system to guide prioritization of investments to 2020 and to 2025. This study formed the basis for the Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project. Assessment Approach 2. The data assessment, review and analysis contain the current functionality of shelters, roads and killas, future socio-economic stressors and related impacts of cyclones, and future dimensions of vulnerability of people and assets. The analysis was executed using the following;

• Use of district maps with upazila/ union level dimensions;

• Vulnerability mapping using ArcGIS overlays of physical and social indicators, upazila/ union/ district boundaries;

• Prevailing status of existing shelters;

• Community level socio-economic impacts of previous disasters; and

• Dialogue with Union Parishad Chairpersons, Ward Members, Upazila Engineers of LGED and local people.

3. The impact and vulnerability assessment provides a basis for better understanding how different communities and systems are affected by climate change and its impacts. To evaluate the future needs for proactive measures in preparedness, an assessment covering the following aspects was carried out seeking potential actions for the forecasted generation in 2025.

• Understanding the potential impacts of disasters; in particular, cyclones in the coastal districts, Upazilas and Unions;

• Identifying unions, livelihoods, sectors of environment, land use, who/ what/ where the most vulnerable groups are;

• Assessing the functioning of existing shelters in terms of physical structure, services, accessibility, maintenance, distance to households, population and area coverage etc.;

• Assessing the functioning of access roads to existing shelters in terms of physical stability, maintenance, inundation during floods/ storm surges, strategic importance etc.;

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• Assessing the adequacy of existing shelters from the community’s perspectives projected for a population in 2025 and finding suitable locations for new shelters;

• Proposing new locations for new shelters and access roads and /or realigning existing roads to avoid inundation areas, and linking critical structures and essential facilities;

• Supporting the development of maps which indicate suitable new shelter locations considering the geography, ownership, environment, socio-economic and physical impacts on the community.;

• Supporting the preparation of a database for existing shelters, killas and roads and the development of GIS maps indicating features such as location, function capacity, prevailing status, population coverage etc.;

• Assisting with finalizing priority unions in each district, balancing the number of new shelters and restoration of existing shelters according to pre-set priority indicators and parameters; and

• Updating the shelter database for coastal districts in Bangladesh.

Defining Priority

4. For the proposed quantum of work for the Priority-1 of the construction, priority areas Upazila wise were delineated. The collected data were mapped for better visualization to identify the areas to be addressed and to have a broad understanding on the ground situation. To appraise for a best option for selection of Upazilas to introduce new construction, a number of parameters were used for evaluation.

Risk Zones

5. The data analysis was carried out to decide on the Upazila based priority for each of the district. Upazilas falling in the high vulnerable locations based on the previous disaster losses and experience were ranked the highest priority. The following maps/ information were used to establish the risk zones:

• Cyclone risk zone maps developed by SPARRSO

• Flood inundation maps developed by Bangladesh Water Development Board

• Flood level data collected through field survey

6. One of the tools utilized for identifying risk zones is the maps developed by the Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization of Bangladesh. SPARRSO is the national space agency and a leading multi-sectarian scientific research and development organization of Bangladesh. It extensively uses application of space science, Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) to develop scenarios to assist in technical decisions including climate related aspects. Based on the scenarios formulated, SPARRSO has developed risk maps for coastal districts for vulnerability for cyclones. According to them, 1) high risk zone – defines areas of a surge height above 1m; 2) medium Risk zone – about 1 m. and 3) high wind zone – less than 1m surge height. This criterion is used as the first option to identify the relevant zone. However, it does not fulfill the entire requirement of defining risk zones, in this study. Further, DSSP -1 study does not encompass solely of cyclone shelter needs; but shelters for floods and some instances for earthquake and landslides (in Chittagong) as well. Therefore, where inland

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Upazilas are more affected by floods, multi hazard situation in risk for both cyclones and floods have to be considered. For that purpose, information from Bangladesh Water Development Board, particularly Upazila based inundation maps for 1998 floods was used. Those maps define the percentage of areas of flooding during one of the worst floods in the coastal districts in 1998. In addition, the risk level is verified through the information on the flood levels, collected during the field survey.

7. Unions in the very high and high risk zones were addressed with the highest priority in the district. Then the order was descending according to coverage of the high risk.

Status of Existing Shelters and Access Roads

8. Based on the analytical results from collected data and field data, physical status of the existing shelters and access roads were evaluated. Engineering details related with foundation, structural elements, finishes, services etc. of shelters were evaluated. For access roads, main concern is the availability, drains, maintenance and the proper elevation to cater in high water levels.

9. The existing shelter survey analysis was based on various parameters / categories of the repair needs.

• Minor repairs –Plastering of patches, cementing floor, replacing doors/ window panes etc., replacing minor fittings

• Major repairs – Repairs on concrete structures with R/F and concreting, staircases, rebuilding walls, replacing door/ window frames, complete flooring and plastering etc.

• Reconstruction – Buildings which found to be economical to reconstruct than repairs (at the same location or new location)

10. The field survey revealed that some of the cyclone shelters constructed in the early 70s were found to be in a highly dilapidated condition due to structural failures. Change of flood inundation patterns of the area, low plinth level and poor maintenance of the building etc. may lead to structural failures and unsuitable for the human use. In such instance, a decision for a new site location may have to be taken.

11. Similarly, analysis will be conducted for the access roads categorizing them as

• Minor repairs – Pothole patching coverage of 25% of the road, silt removal and patching up of walls of culverts and bridges, replacing hand rails, guard stones, bituminous surfacing, single / double coating etc.

• Major repairs – complete rehabilitation of the road (earth filling and compacting to raise the base, metal laying, road drains), replacing pipes/ major concrete repair work for box culverts and bridges, introducing new culverts/ cross drains etc.

• New construction – When there is no access road.

12. Based on the data collected, a detailed evaluation of existing shelters was carried for each district. To convert the data into analyzing tools for assessing the different scale of the shelters condition, a factor has been introduced. For well-maintained shelters, a factor of 1, shelters with minor repairs, factor of 0.5 and those with major repairs, a factor of 0.25.

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Ex: Number of well-maintained shelters in the union U1 = a1

Number of shelters with minor repairs in the union U1= b1

Number of shelters with major repairs in the union U1 = c1

Average figure to assess the shelter situation for U1 =

{(a1 x 1) + (b1 x 0.5) + (c1 x 0.25)} /( a1 + b1 + c1) = A1

Average for the union U1 = A1



Similarly, for the union Un = An

13. The higher the value of A, the lower the priority. Therefore, if the values of A are sorted in an ascending order, representing unions will give the priority order.

Adequacy of Existing Shelters and Area Coverage

14. The number of required new construction depends on the existing population, district/ upazila based population growth rate, the number of usable/ available shelters, and the physical location of shelters. It requires defining the catering catchment area at present, future expansions and the population density. Catchment area of a shelter is the area occupied by the number of people for which the same shelter is designed for. The catchment area depends on the population density and the shelter capacity. More the shelters are constructed less the catchment area. The boundaries of the catchment area cannot be restricted to ward or union boundaries as people will take shelter at the closest shelter they can go. In the case of “Char lands or char islands” in districts, the boundaries are definite and easy to estimate the capacity and the number of shelters required.

Table 1: Population Growth Rate

District Growth rate District Growth rate

Bagerhat 0.79 Jhalakati 0.41

Barguna 0.90 Khulna 1.70

Barisal 0.65 Lakshmipur 1.28

Bhola 1.44 Noakhali 1.52

Chandpur 1.12 Patuakhali 1.38

Chittagong 2.24 Pirojpur 0.44

Cox’s Bazar 2.25 Satkhira 1.56

Feni 1.24

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics 2001

15. In order to appraise the adequacy of existing shelters, prevailing shelter coverage was computed, accepting a norm for 1500 person/ shelter. The project proposes to consider the projected population by the year 2025. So, the priority is placed considering the area coverage

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for each of the new shelters, a tentative location, shelters serving 1500 people and travel distance of less than a radius of 1.5 km. The unions complying with the said criteria were ranked as a higher priority above others in the evaluation.

Existing shelter coverage = Projected population 2025 in the Upazila / No. of Shelters

16. If the value of this equation was more than 1500, then the shelters will be overcrowded. Assuming a norm of 1500 person per shelter and existing shelters have average capacity of 1500, the total required number will be worked out:

Required number of shelters = Number of Projected Population in the Upazila in 2025 / 1500

17. Required number of new construction can be calculated subtracting the existing number from the above resulted figure. However, there are many Upazilas with a low population density as a result of increasing vulnerability, compelling needs to abandon agricultural lands due to salinity intrusion, deteriorating facilities for basic services such as roads, health, water and sanitation and scarce opportunities for means of living etc. In such remote areas, people have to travel more than 1.5 km to reach a shelter which needs the reconsideration of the norm of 1500. In place of one shelter of 1500 capacity, two numbers of lesser capacity will be recommended. In case of existing capacity is insufficient, but the shelters covers a radius of 1.5 km, additions to the existing building will be suggested.

Defining Exclusiveness

18. During the process of ranking the unions, a few assumptions were made:

1) Union wise population is equally distributed;

2) Shelters of one union can be used by adjacent union people;

3) Views from community, elected members in identifying shelter locations are fair and unbiased;

4) Selected new sites are owned by the government; Education Ministry, Upazila centers, Madrasas etc. and approval of relevant authorities will be granted without any cost.

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Fig.1- Priority assessment flow chart

REPOR

Define total of shelters with major

Number multiply by factor

Compute union wise projected population in 2025 @ district

growth rate

Define population in

2001 union wise

TOTAL UP TO CALCULATE AVERAGE WEIGHTAGE OF ALL EXISTING SHELTERS TO

Major

1st priority- Unions in the high risk zone

Minor

Identify additional number required for

high risk zone

Develop GIS maps – Upazila / union

Collect primary/ secondary data, filed survey, verification and prepare data base

N

No

Define total of good

Number multiply by

factor 1

Identify condition of existing shelters in high

risk unions

Ye Repair

s Mino

r

Define total of shelters with minor repairs

Number multiply by factor 0.5

Prioritise unions 2nd priority - Unions with more repairable

shelters

Extract new locations with a

distance to furthest settlement >

Define sq. Area coverage of high risk

zone

Define square area union wise

POSSIBLE POSITIONS OF NEW LOCATIONS OF

SHELTERS IN MAP CONSIDERING LAND USE/

Define projected population in 2025 in high/med risk zone

Define required number of shelters in high risk zone

Define existing number of shelters

in high/med risk zone

Locate existing and proposed shelters in

the map

IDENTIFY HIGH/ MED/ LOW RISK AREAS

Finalise the

Any new shelter >1.5

km from Yes

Reposition 3rd priority- Unions with max population coverage within 1.5

km

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19. The following prioritization criteria were developed for using as Tool for Selection of the sites of the Disaster Shelters. Marking criteria has been assigned and compiled in Excel Sheet for ranking the prioritization:

Table-2: Tools for Optimization of Disaster Shelter System (DSS) Serial

Criteria of Marking Mark Allotted

1

Disaster Risk Zone of the New Disaster Shelter Severe 30 Mark Medium 25 Mark Average 10 Mark Below Average 5 Mark

30

2

Flood/ Surge Level High > 6 Meter 20 Mark Medium > 3 Meter< 6 Meter 15 Mark Low < 1 Meter > 3 Meter 10 Mark Very Low < 1 Meter 5 Mark

20

3

Location of Existing Disaster Shelter to be considered for New Disaster Shelter 1.5 Km < 15 Mark ll. > 1.5 Km 0 Mark

15

4

Projected Population of 2025 for Location of Existing Disaster Shelter to be considered for the Covered Area High (1500-1000) 15 Mark Medium (500-1000) 12 Mark Average( 300- 500) 8 Mark lV Below Average(100-300) 5 Mark -

15

5

Ranking of the response of the Stakeholder’s Opinion through Stakeholders Consultations including LGED Officials; High 20 Marks for each Medium 15 Marks for each Low 5 Marks for each

20

Total 100

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