The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE...

Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No: PAD870

PROJECT PAPER

ON A

PROPOSED ADDITIONAL CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 27.6 MILLION

(US$42.3 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

TO THE

FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA

FOR A

LAGOS EKO SECONDARY EDUCATION PROJECT

FEBRUARY 7, 2014

Education – Central and West Africa Nigeria Africa Region

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective January 31, 2014

Currency Unit = Naira Naira 160 = US$1

US$1.5342 = SDR 1

FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ASC BECE

Annual School Census Basic Education Certificate Examination

CPS Country Partnership Strategy DPAC District Project Advisory Committee DPL Development Policy Lending EA Environmental Assessment ECCD Early Child Care and Development EFA Education for All EKO Yoruba word meaning “education” EMIS Education Management Information System ESMF, ESMP Environmental & Social Management Framework, ESM Plan ESP Education Sector Plan GDP Gross Domestic Product GER Gross Enrollment Ratio GPE Global Partnership for Education IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction & Development (The World Bank) JSS Junior Secondary School (grades 7-10) LASEEDS Lagos State Economic & Empowerment Development Strategy LASEPA Lagos State Environmental Protection Agency LASGEMS Lagos State Government Education Management System LASTVEB Lagos State Vocational Education Board LASU Lagos State University LEAP Lagos Economic Advancement Program LCA Local Council Area LGA Local Government Area LGEA Local Government Education Area LMDGP Lagos Metropolitan Development and Governance Project LSG Lagos State Government M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MDGs Millennium Development Goals MOE Ministry of Education MOU Memorandum of Understanding MTEF Medium-Term Expenditure Framework

(iii)

NECO National Examinations Council NEEDS National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy NESSC National Education Sector Steering Committee NLSS National Living Standards Survey OP/BP Operational Policies/Bank Procedures (World Bank) PEMFAR Public Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability Review PFMU Project Financial Management Unit PAC Project Advisory Committee PIC Project Implementation Committee PIM Project Implementation Manual PSU Project Support Unit PTA,PTO Parent-Teacher Association, Parent-Teacher Organization SBMC School-Based Management Committee SDG, SDGM School Development Grant, SDG Manual SEEDS State Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy SEMIS School-level EMIS SESP State Education Sector Project SMOE State Ministry of Education SOE Statement of Expenditure SPAC State Project Advisory Committee SSS Senior Secondary School (grades 10-12) SUBEB State Universal Basic Education Board TA Technical Assistance TEPO Teachers Establishment & Pensions Office TG/PS Tutor-General/Permanent Secretary TRC Technical Review Committee TVET Technical-Vocational Education & Training UBE, UBEC Universal Basic Education, UBE Commission UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund WAEC West Africa Examinations Council WASSCE West Africa Senior Secondary Certificate Examination (the WAEC exam) ZOPA Zonal Project Administrator

Vice President: Makhtar Diop

Country Director: Marie-Francoise Marie-Nelly Sector Manager: Peter N. Materu

Task Team Leader: Olatunde Adekola

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NIGERIA LAGOS EKO SECONDARY EDUCATION ADDITIONAL FINANCING PROJECT

CONTENTS

Additional Financing Data Sheet ..................................................................................................... v

I. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1

II. Background and Rationale for Additional Financing in the amount of US$42.3 million .... 1

III. Proposed Changes ............................................................................................................... 4

Annex 1 – Revised Results Framework and Monitoring Indicators .............................................. 12

Annex 2 – Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF) ..................................................... 20

Annex 3 – Summary of Original Project Evaluation Studies ......................................................... 23

Annex 4 – Summary of Project Description under Additional Financing Project ......................... 29

Annex 5 – Project Costs ................................................................................................................. 31

Annex 6 – Implementation Arrangements under Additional Financing Project ............................ 34

Annex 7 – Economic Analysis under Additional Financing Project .............................................. 37

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Additional Financing Data Sheet Nigeria

Lagos Eko Secondary Education Additional Financing Project (P148593) AFRICA

AFTEW .

Basic Information – Parent

Parent Project ID: P106280 Original EA Category: B - Partial Assessment

Current Closing Date: 30-Jun-2014

Basic Information – Additional Financing (AF)

Project ID: P148593 Additional Financing Type (from AUS):

Scale Up

Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Proposed EA Category: B - Partial Assessment

Country Director: Marie Francoise Marie-Nelly Expected Effectiveness Date:

31-Jul-2014

Sector Director: Tawhid Nawaz Expected Closing Date: 31-Dec-2015

Sector Manager: Peter Nicolas Materu Report No: PAD870

Team Leader: Olatunde Adetoyese Adekola

Borrower

Organization Name Contact Title Telephone Email

Federal Ministry of Finance, Federal Government of Nigeria

A.A. Aremu Deputy-Director 234 9 2346291-4, 2346951-4

[email protected]

Project Financing Data – Parent ( Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project-P106280 )

Key Dates

Project Ln/Cr/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date

Original Closing Date

Revised Closing Date

P106280 IDA-45910

Effective 16-Jun-2009 20-Jul-2009 09-Nov-2009 31-Dec-2013

30-Jun-2014

Disbursements

Project Ln/Cr/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed

% Disbursed

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P106280 IDA-45910

Effective XDR 63.60 63.60 0.00 63.25 0.35 99.45

Project Financing Data – Additional Financing Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project Additional Financing ( P148593 )

[ ] Loan [ ] Grant [ ] IDA Grant

[X] Credit [ ] Guarantee [ ] Other

Total Project Cost: 42.30 Total Bank Financing: 42.30

Financing Gap: 0.00

Financing Source – Additional Financing (AF) Amount

Borrower/Recipient 0.00

International Development Association (IDA) Recommitted Funds 42.30

Total 42.30

Policy Waivers

Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant respects? No

Explanation

Does the project require any policy waiver(s)? No

Explanation

Team Composition

Bank Staff

Name Title Specialization Unit

Irajen Appasamy Senior Operations Officer Senior Operations Officer

AFTEW

Luis M. Schwarz Senior Finance Officer Senior Finance Officer CTRLA

Foluso Okunmadewa Sector Leader Sector Leader AFTHD

Bayo Awosemusi Lead Procurement Specialist AFTPW

Sukhdeep Brar Senior Education Specialist Senior Education Specialist

AFTEW

Olatunde Adetoyese Adekola

Senior Education Specialist Team Leader AFTEW

Juliana Victor-Ahuchogu

Senior Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist

M&E AFTDE

Daniel Rikichi Kajang Senior Procurement Specialist AFTPW

Adetunji A. Oredipe Senior Operations Officer Senior Operations AFCW2

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Officer

Evarist F. Baimu Senior Counsel Senior Counsel LEGAM

Joseph Ese Akpokodje Senior Environmental Institutions Specialist

Senior Environmental Institutions Specialist

AFTN1

Ogo-Oluwa Oluwatoyin Jagha

Senior Monitoring & Evaluation Specialist

Senior Monitoring & Evaluation Specialist

AFTDE

Adewunmi Cosmas Ameer Adekoya

Sr Financial Management Specialist

AFTMW

Amos Abu Senior Environmental Specialist AFTN1

Janet Omobolanle Adebo

Program Assistant AFTEW

Elizabeth Hassan E T Consultant E T Consultant LEGVP

Uchenna Prince Onyebuchi

Consultant Consultant AFTDE

Hadiza Nyelong Eneche Team Assistant Team Assistant AFCW2

Non Bank Staff

Name Title Office Phone City

Locations

Country First Administrative Division

Location Planned Actual Comments

Nigeria Ikorodu

Nigeria Kosofe

Nigeria Shomolu

Nigeria Lagos Mainland

Nigeria Apapa

Nigeria Amuwo-Odofin

Nigeria Ojo

Nigeria Badagry

Nigeria Lagos Island

Nigeria Agege

Nigeria Alimosho

Nigeria Ifako-Ijaiye

Nigeria Epe

Nigeria Ibeju-Lekki

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Nigeria Ikeja

Nigeria Mushin

Nigeria Oshodi-Isolo

Nigeria Eti-Osa

Nigeria Surulere

Nigeria Ajeromi-Ifelodun

Institutional Data

Parent ( Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project-P106280 )

Sector Board

Education

Sectors / Climate Change

Sector (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100)

Major Sector Sector % Adaptation Co-benefits %

Mitigation Co-benefits %

Education Secondary education 60

Public Administration, Law, and Justice Public administration- Education

30

Education Tertiary education 10

Total 100

Themes

Theme (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100)

Major theme Theme %

Human development Education for the knowledge economy 70

Social protection and risk management Improving labor markets 30

Total 100

Additional Financing Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project Additional Financing ( P148593 )

Sector Board

Education

Sectors / Climate Change

Sector (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100)

Major Sector Sector % Adaptation Mitigation Co-

(ix)

Co-benefits %

benefits %

Education Secondary education 70

Education Vocational training 30

Total 100

I certify that there is no Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Co-benefits information applicable to this

project.

Themes

Theme (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100)

Major theme Theme %

Human development Education for the knowledge economy 60

Human development Education for all 30

Human development Other human development 10

Total 100

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I. Introduction

1. This Project Paper seeks the approval of the Executive Directors for an Additional Credit of US$42.3 million equivalent to the Federal Republic of Nigeria for the Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project.

2. The objective of the proposed Additional Financing is to maximize development results and deepen the impact of successful interventions under the original project. This Additional Financing also entail the following: (i) changes in the results framework, (ii) minor modifications in the project components; and (iii) an update of existing implementation arrangements, and disbursement estimates. The Additional Financing of SDR27.6 million (US$42.3 million equivalent) is from IDA recommitted funds. The AF will finance activities to maximize the developmental impact of the highly successful original project by: (a) supporting the implementation of expanded project activities in existing schools, as well as additional school development grant cycles up to 2015; (b) allowing adequate time for the Lagos State MOE through the six Education Districts to evaluate and institutionalize successful innovative interventions from the ongoing project; and (c) enabling the full development of mechanisms, and institutional implementation capacity to sustain successful innovative activities in the 667 public secondary schools beyond the AF project implementation period. The closing date of the original project has already been extended up to June 30, 2014 (from December 31, 2013) to ensure sufficient time for processing the Additional Financing. The AF project will be implemented during 2014-2015 and will have a closing date of December 31, 2015.

3. Results Framework has been updated as follows: (i) under outcome indicators, two additional indicators to monitor the overall performance of students in both the Basic Education Certificate Examinations and the West Africa Secondary School Certificate Examinations; and (ii) minor changes/additions in intermediate indicators. Details are provided in Annex 1.

4. The changes being proposed relate to: (i) extending school development grants to 667 schools for improving education quality and student learning under the original project up to 2015; (ii) continuing professional development of teachers, principals and vice-principals, enhanced capability of Lagos State to undertake standardized testing; and (iii) strengthening monitoring and evaluation. Expected outcomes include (a) increased performance in student learning achievement under the Basic Education Certificate Examination (BECE) and the West Africa Senior Secondary Certificate Examination (WASSCE); (b), enhanced system of student assessment; and (c) strengthened institutional capacity within the Lagos State educational system, particularly at district and school level.

II. Background and Rationale for Additional Financing in the amount of US$42.3 million

5. The Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project became effective on November 9, 2009 with an IDA Credit financing of SDR63.6 million (US$95 million equivalent). The Project Development Objective is to improve the quality of public junior and senior secondary education in Lagos State. The Project’s main emphasis is on improving students’ learning outcomes. The project consists of four project components: (a) promoting secondary school effectiveness through School Development Grants; (b) enhancing quality assurance for junior and senior secondary

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schools; (c) strengthening project coordination and management; and (d) strengthening Federal post-basic education strategy (Federal Government implemented component - US$5 million equivalent). 6. The project provides quality-enhancing incentive grants to schools, supports standardized assessment of student learning achievement, strengthens teachers’ professional development, and upgrades monitoring and evaluation. To date, the Project has benefited yearly more than 0.62 million students and about 10,000 principals, vice-principals and teachers in 667 public junior and senior secondary schools in all Education Districts of Lagos State. The project contributes to poverty reduction in two main ways: (i) providing access for the poor to quality secondary education, thereby helping them improve their livelihood opportunities through acquisition of needed skills for the labor market; and (ii) enabling poor graduates in technical colleges to obtain jobs after relevant training (as is the case at the Samsung Academy),1 thereby contributing to shared prosperity. 7. The Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project (Lagos Eko Project) implementation experience has been transformative in enhancing student learning outcomes through performance incentives to schools and teachers for greater school effectiveness, autonomy and accountability. The Project, based on implementation experience in Nigeria and elsewhere, includes various innovative strategies such as: (i) anchoring project design within the priorities of the state’s Education Sector Plan (ESP) to maximize impact on the achievement of the ESP goals (ii) adopting the “whole school-effectiveness model” to strengthen supply and demand interventions; (iii) ensuring implementation readiness with a qualified implementation team; (iv) providing for effective technical assistance; (v) ensuring strong state-level ownership and commitment to project objectives; (vi) providing adequate financing to have a catalytic impact in the public secondary schools and (vii) keeping interventions simple and manageable. All these design elements will remain valid for the Additional Financing Project. 8. The original project has experienced exceptional performance having exceeded its PDO outcome indicators, namely: (i) in the Basic Education Certificate Examination where student learning in 2013 increased in all three subjects from the 2009 figures (English scores increased from 30 percent to 70 percent; Mathematics increased from 31 percent to 45 percent, Basic Science went from 27 percent to 65 percent) and (ii) the results of the June 2013 WASSCE externally-administered examinations indicated that 41.06 percent of students who sat for the examination obtained five credits and above (including in English Language and Mathematics) against 18.41 percent at baseline in 2009. Implementation progress ratings have been rated “highly satisfactory” in all Implementation Status and Results Reports. Credit covenants have been complied with.

1 As a result of call of interest from private partners to participate in the project, Samsung Inc. entered into an agreement in 2010 with Lagos State government to collaborate on skill development on engineering and electronics through training of students of Government Technical College, Agidingbi, Ikeja Lagos.

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Rationale for Additional Financing 9. The rationale for the proposed AF is to sustain and deepen the results of a highly successful project, which directly addresses educational issues affecting the poor disproportionately, particularly access to quality secondary education. The proposed AF project aims at maximizing the impact of the current project through deepening and strengthening most activities. The AF project contributes to the twin goals of reducing poverty and increasing shared prosperity, as outlined in the forthcoming Country Partnership (CPS) (2014-17) by enabling poor students to obtain good quality secondary education and build on necessary skills that would allow them to compete in the job market, and thereby improving their livelihoods, and to some extent, those living in their households. The AF project is well aligned with the National Education Policy and Four Year Strategic Plan and the CPS. In addition, the Lagos State Government has shown unwavering commitment and ownership in ensuring the success of the original Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project. The Lagos government has a sound Education Sector Plan with appropriate medium-term budget. In addition, successful experience of this project in improving the quality of education and service delivery will benefit the country widely in scaling up its innovative approaches to improve student learning outcomes in other states. 10. As the current project, the AF project will contribute to poverty reduction by enhancing life opportunities for poor children by providing them with the tools to tackle poverty, and thereby improving their household livelihoods. Moreover, given that poor students were the main focus under the original project, it takes more than just four years to sustain gains in learning achievement by these poor students, as opposed to the non-poor, who are readily equipped to face new related challenges. Although the poverty rate has decreased fast in Lagos (to 23 percent in poverty headcount by 2010 from 57 percent in 2004), given its rapid population growth rate, recent estimates imply that there is still a large number of poor people in Lagos (about five million). Thus, with rapid population growth rate of 3.2 percent,2 it is crucial that people have access to education and that workforce quality be improved. The project, through skill training in technical colleges, will enable children from poor families to maximize their opportunities to obtain jobs, which would contribute to poverty reduction and shared prosperity in their households. Thus, overall, the proposed AF project will enable Lagos State to enhance the impact of critical activities under the current project, such as the School Development Grant scheme and teacher/principal continuing professional development, and standardized testing of student learning achievement. 11. Additional Financing provides the most appropriate mechanism for consolidating gains, maintaining momentum, and maximizing the impact of the current project.

2 Lagos State Bureau of Statistics.

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III. Proposed Changes 12. The following provides a summary of changes under the AF Project (Details are in Annexes 1-7).

Summary of Proposed Changes

13. The Project Development Objective of the proposed Additional Financing will remain unchanged, and will continue “to improve the quality of public junior and senior secondary education in Lagos State”. The proposed AF will finance activities to maximize the developmental impact of the highly successful original project by: (a) supporting the implementation of expanded project activities in existing schools (including public-private partnership in technical colleges), as well as additional school development grant cycles up to 2015; (b) allowing adequate time for the Lagos State MOE through the six Education Districts to evaluate and institutionalize successful innovative interventions from the ongoing project; and (c) enabling the full development of mechanisms, and institutional implementation capacity to sustain successful innovative activities in the 667 public secondary schools including the schools that participated in the Lagos Metropolitan Development and Governance Project beyond the AF project implementation period. 14. The project design and components will remain the same as in the original project. While the AF still includes key activities under the fourth component (federal), their financing will come from residual funds under the original project up to June 2014, and other sources, including the Government’s own funding. Under component 3, apart from Project Management, the AF will strengthen project evaluation (including impact evaluation), school monitoring, institutional and cost-effectiveness analysis, and sustainability. 15. While the PDO remains unchanged, as explained below, the Results Framework will need adjustments: (i) under outcome indicators, two additional indicators which will monitor (beyond performance in English Language, Mathematics and Science) the overall performance of students in both the Basic Education Certificate Examinations and the West Africa Secondary School Certificate Examinations; and (ii) minor changes/additions in intermediate indicators. All indicators will be taken into account in the final assessment of project performance. Details are in Annex 1.

Change in Implementing Agency Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Project's Development Objectives Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Results Framework Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change of EA category Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Other Changes to Safeguards Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Legal Covenants Yes [ ] No [ X ]

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Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Cancellations Proposed Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Disbursement Arrangements Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Change to Components and Cost Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Change in Institutional Arrangements Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Financial Management Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Change in Procurement Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Change in Implementation Schedule Yes [ X ] No [ ]

Other Change(s) Yes [ ] No [ X ]

Development Objective/Results PHHHDO

Project’s Development Objectives

Original PDO

The development objective of the project is “to improve the quality of public junior and senior secondary education in Lagos State”.

Change in Results Framework PHHCRF

Explanation:

16. While the PDO remains the same, the PDO outcome indicators will be adjusted to reflect the adoption by the Lagos Government of a new equivalent examination assessment (the Basic Education Certificate Examination – BECE) in lieu of the previous one (Junior School Certificate Examination – JSCE), with testing at the same level. The BECE examination covers the whole nine years of basic education and tests students in the final year of the junior secondary education. The modifications will also introduce two new outcome indicators to track overall performance of students in five subjects, including English and Mathematics in both examinations at the junior secondary and senior secondary levels (BECE and the West Africa Senior Secondary Certificate Exam (WASSCE). 17. In parallel, the PDO Intermediate Indicators will also be revised to: (i) reflect the need to reduce process indicators; (ii) define accurately original indicators to be continued; and (iii) indicate those indicators which have been achieved, on which further monitoring would not be needed, though these will be taken into account when assessing the project in the Implementation Completion Results Report at the end of the AF implementation period). Annex 1 – Results Framework shows detailed changes by indicator and a revised Results Framework matrix.

Compliance PHHHCompl

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Covenants - Additional Financing ( Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project Additional Financing - P148593 )

Source of Funds

Financing/ Project Agreement Reference

Description of Covenants

Date Due Recurrent Frequency

Action

Additional Financing

Sections I.A.1 and I.E of Schedule 2 to the FA/ Sections I.A.1 and I.D of the Schedule to the PA

Provisions requiring the Project to be carried out in accordance with the PIM, the ESMF, and if applicable the ESMP.


Sections I.A.2-3 of Schedule 2 to the FA/ Sections I.A.2-3 of the Schedule to the PA

Provisions requiring the maintenance of the SPAC (assisted by the PSU) and the PFMU


Article V, Section 5.01 and Section I.B of Schedule 2 to the PA

Provision requiring the Federal Republic of Nigeria to enter into a subsidiary agreement with Lagos State

Condition of Effectiveness


Section I.C of Schedule 2 to the FA/ Section I.B of the Schedule to the PA

Provisions requiring Lagos State to select sub-projects and provide grants, in accordance with the provisions of the PA and the PIM

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Finance PHHHFin

Loan Closing Date - Additional Financing ( Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project Additional Financing - P148593 )

Source of Funds Proposed Additional Financing Loan Closing Date

International Development Association (IDA) Recommitted Funds

31-Dec-2015

Loan Closing Date(s) - Parent ( Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project - P106280 )

PHHCLCD

Explanation:

The closing date of the original project has already been extended by six months to June 30, 2014 to enable the processing of Additional Financing.

Ln/Cr/TF Status Original

Closing Date Current Closing Date

Proposed Closing Date

Previous Closing Date(s)

IDA-45910

Effective 31-Dec-2013 30-June-2014 31- Dec- 2015 30-Jun-2014

Change in Disbursement Arrangements

PHHCDA

Explanation:

The change pertains to the withdrawal schedule (see below).

Change in Disbursement Estimates

(including all sources of Financing)PHHCDE

Explanation:

The Withdrawal Schedule is shown in Annex 6.

Expected Disbursements (in USD Million) (including all Sources of Financing)

Fiscal Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Annual 20.80 21.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Cumulative 20.80 42.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Allocations - Additional Financing ( Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project Additional Financing - P148593 )

Source of Fund

Currency Category of Expenditure

Allocation Disbursement %(Type Total)

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Proposed Proposed

IDA XDR

(1) Grants under Part A of the Project (a) SSDGs; (b) SSPAs; and (c) PPPGs

19,300,000 100%

IDA XDR

(2) Goods, Training, Consultant Services under Part A of the Project

1,100,000 1005

IDA XDR

(3) Goods, Training, Consultant Services under Part B of the Project

4,800,000 100%

IDA XDR

(4) Goods, Training, Consultant Services under Part C of the Project

800,000 100%

IDA XDR (5) Operating Costs 1,600,000

Total: 27,600,000

Components PHHHCompo

Change to Components and Cost

PHHCCC

Explanation:

18. The components will not change, but the costs will need adjustments (see Annex 5 – Project Costs). The Project cost for the original project was US$95.0 million equivalent (consisting of US$85.90 million equivalent base costs, and the remainder as physical and financial contingencies). The Proposed Cost includes the original cost as well.

Current Component Name

Proposed Component Name

Current Cost (US$M)

Proposed Cost (US$M)

Action

Secondary School Effect. through School Development Grants

Secondary School Effect. through School Development Grants

69.2 100.70 Revised

Enhancing Quality Assurance for Junior and Senior Secondary Schools

Enhancing Quality Assurance for Junior and Senior Secondary Schools

15.2 24.10 Revised

Project Project 5.5 7.40 Revised

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Coordination/Management

Coordination/Management

Strengthening Federal Post-Basic Edu Strategy

Strengthening Federal Post-Basic Edu Strategy

5.1 5.1 Revised (no additional funding)

Total: 95.0 137.30

Other Change(s) PHHHOthC

Change in Procurement

PHHCProc

Explanation:

The procurement guidelines remain the same. An updated procurement plan has been prepared.

Change in Implementation Schedule

PHHCISch

Explanation:

The implementation schedule will reflect activities for 2014 and 2015.

Appraisal Summary PHHHAppS

Economic and Financial Analysis PHHASEFA

Explanation:

19. The assumptions for the economic analysis under the AF would remain the same as those of the original credit (see Annex 7 – Economic Analysis). The cost-benefit analysis conducted for the original program remains relevant. The analysis estimated an economic rate of return (ERR) of 14.5 percent based on private costs and 19 percent based on public and private costs, a lower bound estimate as externalities are not factored in. Given the primacy of Lagos in the growth of the non-oil sector in Nigeria, it is expected that this project will contribute positively to the future economic performance of the whole country. Lagos contributes to about 12 percent of Nigeria’s GDP, and is the prime economic hub in Nigeria and West Africa. 20. With regard to cost-effectiveness, the direct beneficiaries of the Lagos Eko Secondary Education AF would be 667 secondary schools in six districts, including five technical colleges, which provide education to over 622,000 students annually. Under the School Development Grant scheme schools have received four rounds of grants for a cumulative total of US$58.92 million. To date, over 620,000 students (51 percent of whom are girls) have benefited annually from these grants. The unit cost of the grant scheme is $95 per student (N15, 052), which is 37 percent lower than the 2005 unit costs for secondary education in Lagos (N24, 000). During the AF of the project, the cost-effectiveness is expected to be even higher since $31.5 million will be used to benefit the 622,000 students across 667 secondary schools. This will result in a unit cost of $50.6 (N 8,017), representing a 46 percent cost reductions.

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21. Internal efficiency has improved under the original project. Learning gains were evident from the findings of the Evaluation Report for West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE). Significant improvement in students’ performance in English Language WASSCE was recorded in all educational districts in Lagos State during the period of Lagos Eko Project (2010-2013). An average of 78.6 percent of the students had a Pass grade (A1-E8) in the English Language examination in the period of Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project compared to the years before the commencement of the Lagos Eko Project when 53.4 percent of the students had a pass grade (A1-E8).) Similar gains were recorded for Mathematics where an average of 10.88 percent gain was recorded between the percentage of students with Pass (A1-E8) grades in the years before the Lagos Eko Project (54.32 percent) and the years during the Eko Project (65.2 percent). 22. With regard to fiscal performance, Lagos State has made good progress in implementing reforms to strengthen budget planning, and aims to fully align its policy priorities with the executed budget during 2010-2013. The Ministry of Economic Planning and Budget issued a clear and comprehensive budget calendar for 2012 and 2013 to guide the budget preparation process. Budget performance with regard to the original project was sound, with achievement of improvement in public secondary schools, through complementary interventions. In addition, the Lagos State Government has incorporated key original project operations in the medium-term budget (2014-2017).

Technical Analysis PHHASTA

Explanation:

23. The design of the AF builds on the government's positive experience of the original Project and therefore the technical design of the project would still remain the same. The project will continue to support supply-side (teacher training, standardized exams) and demand-side interventions (school improvement plans and grants), which will empower school communities to focus on quality improvements that impact learning outcomes. 24. The following main principles guided the technical design of the project: (i) provide targeted and catalytic support for public secondary schools; (ii) use discretionary resources (grants) to experiment with different methods for raising performance; (iii) reward progress by introducing performance grants to capitalize on these gains; (iv) institute an objective and standardized assessment system to track improvements and provide feedback; and (v) continue professional development for teachers and principals. These principles are consistent with the principles that guided the design of the original project.

Social Analysis PHHASSA

Explanation:

25. Despite impressive gains, the social challenges in Lagos remain enormous, still with roughly five million Lagosians living below the poverty line in 2010, and estimated unemployment rate of 12 percent. In addition, difficulties remain with meeting all basic infrastructure needs such as water and sanitation, and key social needs. With regard to the

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education sector, there is a need to ensure free, high quality, and relevant education for all Lagosians. The original Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project has been successful in catering to these needs, for example, in improving access to quality education for the poor in disadvantaged areas as well as increasing the employability prospect of graduating students, especially the poor. In order to sustain these gains, more efforts are needed to deepen the impact of the current project and sustainability of its innovative interventions.

Environmental Analysis PHHASEnvA

Explanation:

26. Since the PDO and components remain unchanged, the proposed AF is rated as a category B, same as the original project, and only triggers OP/BP 4.01. Little or no negative environmental or social impacts are expected as a result of implementation. To date, small civil works (interior rehabilitation of schools, digging of small wells, greening of school grounds, etc.) with minor environmental impacts have been implemented under the original project and followed environmental measures based on the Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF). During implementation of the proposed AF, an environmental audit will be conducted to review and evaluate the project’s adherence to the relevant social and environmental safeguards outlined in the ESMF. Based on its findings, the audit will present a set of recommendations and an action plan to improve and/or enhance the project’s environmental and social sustainability. The original project’s ESMF was updated and re-disclosed in-country on December 10, 2013, and on January 8, 2014 at the InfoShop. Sub-projects will continue to be screened for environmental and social impacts following the screening process described the ESMF. Sub-projects found to be Category C will implement environmental and social measures while Category B sub-projects will require the preparation of ESMPs.

Risk PHHASRisk

Explanation:

27. Risks under the original project have been mitigated well, boosted by a high level of government commitment through continued strong leadership and commitment. Overall risks have been assessed as “Moderate”. This is in view of political pressures in the run up to the 2015 elections and impending change in leadership at the state level. Country -level risks remain substantial because Stakeholder and Sector engagement may diminish as a result of changed leadership and commitment. However, given the legacy of participatory democracy in Lagos, the continuity and consistency in state policy and development priorities over the last decade, these potential risks may not materialize. In addition, the reforms in the education sector in Lagos have been transformative in terms of improving education quality as well as access and equity, which is recognized by Lagosians as one of the instruments for improving service delivery in education. Measures to mitigate such potential risks are described in Annex 2.

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Annex 1 – Revised Results Framework and Monitoring Indicators

A. Summary of Results Framework Changes

Revisions to the Results Framework Comments/ Rationale for Change

PDO Current (PAD) Proposed To improve the quality of public junior and senior secondary education in Lagos State

Continued.

PDO indicators Current (PAD) Proposed change* Increase in the percentage of public junior secondary students obtaining results “at or above credit” in JSCE (junior secondary certificate exam) in English, Math and Integrated Science

Revised: Public junior secondary students at or above credit for BECE (junior secondary exam) in English, Math and Basic/Integrated Science

To reflect appropriateness to exam, and accuracy in the name of the science subject. Original indicator targets exceeded. Change in target value.

New: Public junior secondary students at or above credit in BECE (junior secondary exam) averaged over five subjects including English and Math

To track down performance of students in overall exam

Increase in the percentage of public senior secondary students obtaining “pass grade” results in the WASSCE (West African senior secondary certificate exam) in English, Math and Biology by one percentage point per year.

Revised: Senior secondary students at or above credit in WASSCE (West African senior secondary certificate exam) in English, Math and Biology

To clarify the phrasing of the indicator. Original indicator targets exceeded. Change in target value.

New: Senior secondary students obtaining pass grade in WASSCE (senior secondary exam) in English, Math and Biology

To track down performance of students in overall exam

Intermediate Results indicators

Current (PAD) Proposed change* Component 1: Secondary School Effectiveness 1.1: Education outcomes raised as a result of the effective use of discretionary resources provided to the school.

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• Number of school principals trained on development and management of annual school performance improvement plans and on grant operations.

Revised: School principals and vice-principals trained on school performance improvement and grant operations (cumulative)

To include vice-principals in the definition. Original indicator target exceeded. Change in target value.

• Number of district-level staff trained on information-gathering and monitoring of project inputs and outputs.

Revised: District staff trained in project monitoring, administration and financial management (cumulative)

To clarify definition of indicator. Original indicator target exceeded. Change in target value.

• Percentage of JSS and SSS receiving their development grant within 60 days of school opening.

No change Process indicator. Will be included in ICRR.

• Targeted # schools reporting above 80% teachers’ attendance during the school year.

No change Original target exceeded. Will be included in ICRR.

New: Number of teachers trained in leadership and management (cumulative)

To enhance school effectiveness

New: Number of teachers trained in core subjects (cumulative)

To improve learning outcomes in select subjects

• % schools demonstrating improvement in learning outcomes.

No change Original target exceeded.

• Technical College staff trained in project monitoring, administration and financial management

Revised: Technical College staff trained in project monitoring, administration and financial management (cumulative)

To clarify definition of indicator. Original target exceeded. Change in target value.

New: Number of functional EMIS centers developed in the Education Districts

To track monitoring of EMIS at district level.

New: Number of districts reporting against agreed data using the EMIS for producing reports

To track monitoring of EMIS reports at district level.

• Number of partnership agreements established between technical colleges and entrepreneurs, industrial, commercial, retail firms and associations.

No change Original target achieved. Will be included in ICRR.

• Percentage of activities proposed in plans of technical college completed successfully and on time.

No change Process indicator. Original target achieved. Will be included in ICRR.

Component 2: Quality Assurance for Junior and Senior Secondary Schools

• New and revised standardized tests developed and administered over life of

No change Original target exceeded. Will be included in ICRR.

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the project for JSS and SSS English, mathematics, science.

• State testing agencies release exam results within 2 months of administration.

No change Indicator target already achieved. Will be included in ICRR.

Component 3: Project Coordination and Management

• Required procurement, technical and financial monitoring reports provided in a satisfactory and timely manner.


• Results Based Monitoring & Evaluation system established and implemented continuously.


Component 4: Strengthening Federal Post-Basic Education Strategy

Activities under this component diminished under AF project.

• Detailed program and annual plans developed, discussed, and agreed no later than December 31 of preceding year.


• Number of State secondary education plans supported by the project.


• Annual program outputs and reports disseminated in first quarter of succeeding year.


*Indicate if the indicator is Dropped, Continued, New, Revised, or if there is a change in the end of the project target value.

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B. Annex 1 - Revised Framework Matrix

Project Name:

Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project Additional Financing (P148593)

Project Stage:

Additional Financing Status: DRAFT

Team Leader:

Olatunde Adetoyese Adekola Requesting Unit:

AFCW2 Created by: Janet Omobolanle Adebo on 16-Nov-2013

Product Line:

IBRD/IDA Responsible Unit:

AFTEW Modified by: Irajen Appasamy on 29-Jan-2014

Country: Nigeria Approval FY: 2014

Region: AFRICA Lending Instrument:

Investment Project Financing

Parent Project ID:

P106280 Parent Project Name:

Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project (P106280)

.

Project Development Objectives

Original Project Development Objective - Parent:

The development objective of the project is to improve the quality of public junior and senior secondary education in Lagos State.

Proposed Project Development Objective - Additional Financing (AF):

The development objective remains to improve the quality of public junior and senior secondary education in Lagos state ( PDO remains unchanged) .

Results

Core sector indicators are considered: No Results reporting level: Project Level .

Project Development Objective Indicators

Status Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Actual(Current) End Target

New Public junior secondary Percentage Value 0.00 24.00 28.00

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students at or above credit in BECE (junior secondary exam) averaged over five subjects including English and Math

Date 31-Dec-2009 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015

Comment Baseline for 2009 will be calculated during the first year of AF implementation.

5 credits including English and Math

5 credits including English and Math

Revised Public junior secondary students at or above credit for BECE (junior secondary exam) in English, Math, and Basic/Integrated Science

Percentage Value 0.00 0.00 0.00

Date 31-Dec-2009 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015

Comment The change to BECE instead of JSCE reflects the Lagos State government decision to switch to BECE, which is equivalent to JSCE. BECE covers the entire years of basic education. Original end project targets for JSCE were exceeded.

See sub-indicator value below for each subject.


Revised English Percentage Value 32.00 70.00 74.00

Sub Type Date 31-Dec-2009 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015

Breakdown Comment

Revised Math Percentage Value 31.00 45.00 49.00

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Breakdown Comment

Revised Basic Science Percentage Value 27.00 65.00 69.00


Breakdown Comment

New Senior secondary students at or above credit in WASSCE (senior secondary exam) averaged over five subjects including English and Math


Date 31-Dec-2009 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015

Comment Baseline for 2009 will be calculated during the first year of AF implementation.

5 Credits including Math and English. See sub-indicator value below for each subject.

5 Credits including Math and English. See sub-indicator value below for each subject.

Revised Senior secondary students obtaining pass grade in WASSCE in English, Math and Biology

Percentage Value 0.00 0.00

Date 31-Dec-2009 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015

Comment See sub-indicator value below for each subject.


Revised English Percentage Value 71.00 83.00 84.00


Breakdown Comment

Revised Math Percentage Value 57.00 82.00 83.00


Breakdown Comment

Revised Biology Percentage Value 52.00 84.00 85.00


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Breakdown Comment

Intermediate Results Indicators

Status Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Actual(Current) End Target

Revised School principals and vice trained on performance improvement and grant operations (cumulative)

Number Value 0.00 2609.00 4609.00

Date 31-Dec-2009 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015

Comment

Revised District staff trained in project monitoring, admin & financial mgt. (cumulative)

Number Value 0.00 1643.00 2143.00

Date 31-Dec-2009 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015

Comment

Revised Technical College staff trained in project monitoring, admin & financial mgt. (cumulative)

Number Value 0.00 10.00 40.00

Date 31-Dec-2009 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015

Comment

New Number of functional EMIS centers developed in the Education Districts

Number Value 0.00 0.00 12.00

Date 31-Dec-2009 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015

Comment

New Number of Districts reporting against agreed data using the EMIS for producing reports

Number Value 0.00 0.00 6.00

Date 31-Dec-2009 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015

Comment

New Number teachers trained in leadership and management (cumulative)

Number Value 0.00 10606.00 12606.00

Date 31-Dec-2009 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015

Comment

New Number of teachers trained in core subjects(cumulative)

Number Value 0.00 7576.00 9576.00

Date 31-Dec-2009 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015

Comment

No Change New standardized tests Number Value 0.00 0.00 18.00

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developed and administered Date 01-Sep-2008 31-Dec-2013

Comment No uniform and standardized tests

Achieved.

No Change Percentage targeted schools demonstrating improvement in learning outcomes


Date 01-Sep-2008 28-Jun-2013 31-Dec-2013

Comment No standardize test linking result to resources for improved performance

Achieved.

No Change Partnerships between technical colleges and private sector

Number Value 0.00 0.00 5.00

Date 01-Sep-2008 31-Dec-2013

Comment No partnership between technical colleges and private sector

Achieved.

.

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Annex 2: Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF) Nigeria: Lagos Eko Secondary Education Additional Financing Project (P148593)

.

Project Stakeholder Risks

Stakeholder Risk Rating Moderate

Risk Description: Risk Management:

While the stakeholder risk is minimal, given the increased education awareness from activities under the original project, insufficient dissemination of information, or lack of stakeholder feedback, on program interventions, could hamper project coordination and implementation. Potential changes in leadership could lead to possible erosion of stakeholder engagement.

The communications strategy will build upon the one adopted by the original project and will focus heavily at the level of districts and schools.

To build consensus on the approach, design and preparation elements, stakeholder workshops were held to ensure broad participation of key stakeholders at all levels, which will continue into implementation, as appropriate. Furthermore, as in the original project, implementation will be will be guided by an agreed Project Implementation Manual.

Dissemination of project activities will continue among all stakeholders (e.g. local government, schools and communities). This and continued engagement with key stakeholders will minimize risks of stakeholder disengagement.

Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency:

Client In Progress Both

Implementing Agency (IA) Risks (including Fiduciary Risks)

Capacity Rating Low


Given no changes in the implementation structure and no turnover in project personnel, it is expected that capacity constraints will be minimal.

Capacity-building efforts in the original project yielded positive results across all levels of implementation. These will continue during the AF implementation period, with emphasis on new schools in the program.

Technical assistance, especially at district level and below, will focus on providing regular hands-on support in key areas.



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Governance Rating Moderate


Although governance risk is minimal, rapid expansion of activities could give rise to miscommunication about project activities, leading to financial management related difficulties in implementation.

As indicated above, appropriate orientation and training will be given to new entrants in the program under AF. Moreover, Governance and accountability mechanisms such as third party monitoring and expenditure tracking with regard to grants utilization are in place in the current project, and these will continue throughout the AF project implementation period.



Risk Management:

The project focuses on strengthening governance by improving accountability and creating transparency in the monitoring of results in the participating states. Moreover, third party monitoring of results will be carried out.



Project Risks

Design Rating Low


Given the highly satisfactory performance of the current project and the simple project design, project design risks are low.

The sound multi-tier monitoring system in place, and the strong focus on improving learning outcomes have brought in positive results in student learning, teacher motivation, and community satisfaction with education service delivery at school level. The proven management record is likely to improve with experience in light of the continuity of the implementation team, and the addition of seven more schools will not adversely affect this trend.



Social and Environmental Rating Low


Given the level of awareness that communities have of project activities and the minor environmental and

The communication strategy will continue to emphasize social balance and the need to comply with environmental and social management guidelines. During implementation of the proposed AF, an

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social impacts of the small civil works implemented to date, social and environmental risks are low. The original project’s ESMF has been updated and re-disclosed for this proposed AF and will continue to be implemented.

environmental audit will be conducted to review and evaluate the project’s adherence to the relevant social and environmental safeguards outlined in the ESMF. Based on its findings, the audit will present a set of recommendations and an action plan to improve and/or enhance the project’s environmental and social sustainability.



Program and Donor Rating Low


Given the intervention is in the secondary education sub-sector, most donors are not involved at this level. Nevertheless, some level of coordination is necessary.

Continued coordination at the federal level, and information dissemination and discussions involve active development partners.


Both In Progress Both

Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability Rating Moderate


While delivery monitoring will be manageable, a minor challenge will be how to focus more and more on sustainability of project operations.

The project management team has come up with a sound monitoring system, which even signals to schools of their status and how to change course for better performance. Moreover, sustainability risks will be minimized as performance in student in learning outcomes improve further, which will strengthen efforts towards sustainability.


Client In Progress Implementation

Other (Optional) Rating



Overall Implementation Risk: Rating Moderate

Risk Description:

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Annex 3 – Summary of Project Evaluation Studies

1. Several assessment/evaluation studies were undertaken under the original project, the most important of which were: (a) an evaluation report on the Lagos EKO Secondary Education Project Performance in the West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE); (b) a beneficiary assessment study; and (c) an impact evaluation of e-reader pilot. These are briefly described below. Performance in the West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE) 2. This evaluation report on the Lagos EKO Secondary Education Project covered a period of fifteen (15) years with the purpose of assessing the trend of students’ performance in the West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE) in the years before the commencement of Lagos EKO Secondary Education Project and the effect of interventions through grants on students’ performances in the years after. Five (5) subjects namely English Language, Mathematics, Biology, Chemistry and Physics of the WASSCE were selected for analysis in this report and reported in that order. The performance grades are classified into two major groups – Pass (A1-E8) and F9. English Language 3. Improvement in student performance in the English Language WASSCE was recorded in all educational districts in Lagos State during the period of EKO Project (2010-2013) in comparison to the performances in the years (1999-2009) before the introduction of the project. An average of 78.6 percent of the students had a Pass (A1-E8) grade in the English Language examination in the period of EKO Secondary Education Project compared to 53.4 percent of the students that had a pass (A1-E8) grade in the years before the commencement of Lagos EKO Project. This indicated that 25.3 percent of the students have moved from the fail grade to the pass grades, showing an improvement in the understanding of English Language instructions. 4. During the Lagos EKO Secondary Education Project for public secondary schools in Lagos State, the gap between the private and the public senior secondary schools students’ performance in Lagos State was greatly reduced. The wide margin between the weighted average performance of students in private schools and public schools in the year before the commencement of EKO Project, was narrowed down by 2012 and even moved further in 2013. The spread in performance between private and public senior secondary school students was narrowed in 2012 and 2013 WASSCE (during EKO Project) with difference in the weighted scores of 7.19 and 9.24 respectively. Mathematics

5. Lagos EKO Secondary Education Project also brought about a positive increase in the knowledge gain by public schools students in Mathematics. An average of 10.88 percent gain was recorded between the percentage of students with Pass (A1-E8) grades in the years before the EKO Project (54.32 percent) and the years during the EKO Project (65.2 percent). At the same time, the percentage of students that failed WASSCE Mathematics decreased during EKO Project. An average difference of 4.17 percent was recorded in the percentage of students that failed the Mathematics examination in the period of EKO Project compared to the average percentage of 44.58 percent that failed the examination in the pre-EKO Project years.

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6. In the years 2012 and 2013when the year the first and second set of students that benefited from the Lagos EKO Project for three years sat for the WASSCE, the percentage of students that passed the Mathematics examination was 81.85 percent and 84.36 percent respectively, compared to 45.31 percent and 49.28 percent that passed in year 2010 and 2011. This shows the progressive positive impact of the EKO Project on the students’ performance in Mathematics examination.

Beneficiary Assessment 7. The Lagos Eko Secondary Education Project (Lagos Eko Project) was initiated to enhance learning outcomes in all public junior and senior secondary schools in Lagos State by complementing other efforts aimed at improving the overall quality of education in the state. The project was an intervention adopted in response to the consistently poor results of students in the West African Secondary School Certificate Examination (WASSCE) over the last ten years in the state and across the country. This concrete steps by Lagos State to improve on the quality and relevance of education by focusing on learning outcomes in core subjects (English, Mathematics and the Sciences) has proven to be a pragmatic, innovative and worthwhile project. 8. The School Development Grants (SDG) is the main tool designed to achieve the project’s developmental objective. The principle of the School Development Grants is to empower school leaders to take responsibility for the progress of their schools. The grants enable schools to make priority decisions about students learning, teachers’ development and school management. Each year, education districts approve School’s Improvement Plan (SIP) before the commencement of school activities. Some common areas of utilization of the School Development Grants include; instructional materials, ICT, teachers professional development and the Volunteer Teachers Scheme.

9. Grants are provided annually to all public secondary schools to augment schools non-salary expenditures with the aim of improving learning performance. Schools are given between N1-N3.5 million each, based on their size. For effective utilization of the funds, monitoring activities are carried out at different levels including education districts, monitoring consultants, SBMC and the PSU. The Zonal Project Administrators (ZoPAs) play a vital role in facilitating and monitoring the execution of grants and ensuring that standards of reporting and accountability are adhered to. They also serve as liaison between the schools and education districts.

10. As the project gradually approached its original completion date of December 31, 2013, a Beneficiary Assessment (BA) study of all junior and senior secondary schools in Lagos State was carried out. The assessment involved systematic consultations with a wide range of stakeholders in the state, in order to determine the beneficiaries’ perception of the level of:

i) Effectiveness of the School Development Grants (SDG). ii) Relevance of SDG in addressing real and perceived needs. iii) Sustainability of the SDG, including tools for sourcing unique ideas about the SDG.

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11. Beneficiary Assessments are useful tools for improving the impact of development operations by gaining the views of intended beneficiaries regarding a planned or ongoing intervention. They are used by international development agencies such as World Bank to assess the value of an activity as perceived by project beneficiaries and the findings are integrated into the project activities. This Beneficiary Assessment is particularly relevant to the Lagos Eko Project because of its ability to provide reliable qualitative and in-depth information on sociocultural conditions of the secondary school population in Lagos State since the introduction of the project. 12. The Lagos Eko Project was aimed at supporting the Lagos State government’s priority of human capital development by directly supporting public junior and senior secondary schools through school grants, performance-based incentives, teacher training and standardized testing of its students. This direct funding, also known as School Development Grants (SDG), are discretionary grants that are aimed at improving learning outcomes in English, Mathematics and science subjects.

13. The Lagos Eko Project was built on an efficient coordination mechanism for effective implementation of its activities. The focus of this mechanism include proper financial management and procurement services, timely implementation and technical support, effective monitoring and evaluation as well as the implementation of an information and communication strategy. The project office developed the following mechanisms for receiving SDG:

i) School Development Grants training. ii) Project Implementation Committees (PIC) established to draft School Improvement Plan (SIP). iii) Zonal Project Administrators (ZoPAs) provides information and further support to complement

School Improvement Plan (SIP). iv) District Project Advisory Committees (DPACs) reviews and approves each SIP. v) Project Financial Management Unit (PFMU) transfers funds directly to schools bank account. vi) Schools implement their plan according to laid down procedures and guidelines. vii) Continuous grants monitoring takes place.

14. The Lagos Eko Project was the maiden education intervention in Lagos State with exclusive focus on ‘enhanced learning outcomes’. An integral part of this process was the administration of standardized students’ assessments to show the learning gains achieved by students over time and make learning outcomes more manageable and better understood. The student assessment results were tracked by comparing successive results of baseline and end of the year. Since inception, there has been a steady progression in students’ performance based on percentage gains from baseline survey, subsequent assessments and this beneficiary assessment. 15. As a result of the built-in monitoring framework at the initial stage of the project, Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for the project development objectives covering grants disbursement, teachers’ professional development, standardized students’ assessment and attendance were developed. Zonal Project Administrators are responsible for gathering school data at the district while grants monitoring is carried out with the involvement of a number of stakeholders including members of the Schools-Based Management Committee (SBMC).

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16. The Beneficiary Assessment adopted multiple approaches in order to understand the true perspective of the beneficiaries. On one hand, a quantitative survey was undertaken to obtain numeric data, while a qualitative approach was applied to balance information received from the data. It was also undertaken to depict the true-to-life picture of Lagos Eko Project beneficiaries.

17. A quantitative research tool was applied to assess all junior and senior secondary schools located across six education districts in Lagos State. The following are reported: 53 percent of the respondents were female while 47 percent were male. In the design of the assessment, the targeted respondents were students in junior and senior secondary 2 and 3 on the one hand, and senior level administrators such as principals and vice principals or senior teachers, on the other hand. The strategy was to engage as much as possible the voice of the primary beneficiaries – the students. Half of the respondents to the quantitative tool were students, teachers 34 percent, and principals 9 percent, while SBMC members and parents were less than one percent. SS3 and JSS3 each constituted 44 percent of respondents, while SS2 and JSS2 constituted 9 percent and 3 percent respectively. 18. The Focus Group Discussion (FGDs) was generally successful as it captured data and insights that might have been lost using individual survey instruments like questionnaires alone.

19. Although cohorts were combined in some cases, all targeted cohorts were covered. The following paragraphs in this part of the report feature highlights of the FGDs across all cohorts and Districts I-VI. 20. In general, participants in different cohorts were willing to share their opinions on the impact of the project in their lives, especially students and professionals. These have been captured in this report as case studies and quotes. Table: Breakdown of FGD Participants I II III IV V VI TOTAL Parents 14 11 12 11 9 9 66 Teachers 12 6 12 13 12 17 72 Students 11 7 13 9 13 11 62 Principals 12 11 16 13 14 16 82 Districts Project Advisory Committees (DPAC)

7 7 5 8 7 6 38

Zonal Project Administrators (ZoPAs)

9 9 12 13 9 12 63

School-Based Management Committee (SBMC)

12 0 12 14 8 8 54

Project Implementation Committee (PIC)

12 10 12 10 3 15 62

Volunteer teachers 14 9 13 10 12 10 66

565

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21. The qualitative and quantitative assessments across the six districts showed a high level of satisfaction about most aspects of the Lagos Eko Project in terms of the design, mechanism of implementation and deliverable outcomes. 93 percent of the respondents expressed satisfaction with the Lagos Eko Project. Figure: Level of satisfaction with SDG

22. Across all districts, majority of participants stated that the Lagos Eko Project has demonstrated significant impacts and raised learning outcomes in English, Mathematics and science subjects in junior and senior secondary schools / technical colleges. 23. For example, Alimosho Junior Grammar School, in Alimosho LGA, of the state recently showed an improved performance in the 2011/12 English language JSSCE result, when the school recorded 86% credit pass as against 32 percent in the 2008/2009 academic session. The school also recorded a similar improvement in Mathematics and other core subjects. Similar improvements have been recorded across all districts, though with varying degrees. This is in addition to the claims across all districts that the project has not only raised learning outcomes but also increased interschool competitiveness among public and private schools. 24. In addition to improvement in the school performance across the state, stakeholders revealed that provision of modern learning equipment has changed learning methods from rote learning to participatory learning. The extant consequences of the equipment are that learning has been made simpler and at the same time, inspired school attendance as more students are attracted to the multimedia and ICT facilities. Stakeholders agreed, “Increased school attendance has reduced crime rates”.

“The attitude of students towards their studies in recent time is welcoming as they are not used to multimedia and other ICT equipment before, but now they have improved and more students are looking out for classes where they look forward to learning new things as we have it in all schools.”

- SBMC District II

“I would have loved to be teacher, Lagos Eko Project has dignified the teaching profession and I am proud”. - Parent, District V

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25. Recently, there have been indications of an increase in the number of students transferring from private to public schools. Similar trend have also been recorded in the number of teachers and professionals seeking employment in public schools. The overall consensus across all the districts was that the Lagos Eko Project has professionalized and dignified the teaching profession in Lagos State. Through training and capacity building programmes, all respondents to our survey claimed that teachers have been better equipped and have gained the confidence and motivation they need in performing their duties effectively. 26. In conclusion, the findings from both the FGDs and survey revealed that the Lagos Eko Project has improved learning outcomes, as majority of our respondents expressed satisfaction with the project’s achievement so far. There is no doubt, the Lagos Eko Project has enhanced steady progression in students' performance based on percentage gains from baseline and end of year assessments; while overall capacity building through teachers' professional development has been achieved. Administration of standardized students' assessment to show the learning gains achieved has also been instituted. In terms of collective participation, responsibility, transparency and accountability, a well-designed and functional mechanism has been put in place and this has proven to be effective and efficient. Impact Evaluation – e-reader pilot: 500 randomly selected Grade 8 students (13 years old) participated in the pilot study. 336 are treated sample groups of students with e-reader namely those (1) without loaded curriculum, (2) with only loaded curriculum (3) with loaded curriculum and supplementary materials. 27. The preliminary results are promising after six months and shows 71 percent of students use e-reader3 per week and 29 percent less than once a week. About 70 percent of students express that preparing for test is what motivate them for the use of e-reader compared to less than 20 percent for recreational use. The use of e-reader promoted change of behavior and improved student educational aspiration. More than 70 percent of participants do not express concern for theft, safety and charging problems as a major obstacle to use the e-reader. The Impact evaluation shows that states could leverage on digital technology to improve access to quality education. The impact evaluation study demonstrated that for learning impacts, content is important and student interest/effort is a dimension on which margins exist.

3 500 randomly selected Grade 8 students (13 years old) participated in the pilot study. 164 are control sample students and 336 are treated sample groups of students with e-reader namely those (1) without loaded curriculum, (2) with loaded curriculum (3) with loaded curriculum and supplementary readers

“We have sessions for teachers to have a better understanding, students no longer roam around the street, it is so exciting and interesting. Now students go on google to do their assignment, everything is now new” - Principal, District III “Teachers are more fulfilled now than it used to be, if not for Lagos Eko Project…. ‘‘sound mind in sound body’’ more fulfilled” - DPAC District IV

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Annex 4 – Summary of Project Description under Additional Financing Project

1. The Project Development Objective and Components remain the same as the original project. The AF project supports the development objective of for Lagos Eko Project to improve the quality of public junior and senior secondary education in Lagos State. The current project was initially set up with a four-year implementation period to support on-going government reforms in public secondary education. The proposed Additional Financing (AF) will finance activities to maximize the developmental impact of the highly successful original project by: (a) supporting the implementation of expanded project activities in existing schools (including public-private partnership in technical colleges), as well as additional school development grant cycles up to 2015; (b) allowing adequate time for the Lagos State MOE through the six Education Districts to evaluate and institutionalize successful innovative interventions from the ongoing project; and (c) enabling the full development of mechanisms, and institutional implementation capacity to sustain successful innovative activities in the 667 public secondary schools beyond the AF project implementation period..

2. Project Components: The proposed AF will focus on additional activities for these original project components: (a) Component One – Promoting Secondary School Effectiveness through School Development Grants; (b) Component Two – Enhancing Quality Assurance for Junior and Senior Secondary Schools; and (c) Component 3 – Project Coordination and Management. Component 4 – The AF does not support this component, but work on federal level strategies and coordination in the education sector will continue through alternative financing by the Government or other sources.

3. Component 1 – Promoting Secondary School Effectiveness through School Development Grants (Original Project: US$69.2 million; AF Project: US$31.5 million) The AF will support:

(a) Secondary School Development Grants (SSDG) to support: (i) two rounds of school grants to

eligible public secondary schools having developed a School Improvement Plan (SIP) (including 5 technical colleges) according to the School Development Grant Manual agreed under the original Project; (ii) training of about 3,500 new principals, vice principals and School-Based Management Committees; and (iii) Grant Monitoring;

(b) Secondary School Performance Awards (SSPA) to support two rounds of annual competitive

awards to about 20 percent of schools with improved learning outcomes, based on composite score in standardized tests in English, Mathematics, and Integrated Science (as compared with the previous year’s), teacher attendance and other quality indices; and

(c) Public-Private Partnership Grants (PPPG) to support inclusion of additional private sector

collaboration with one additional Technical College for construction engineering to increase capacity in the construction industry.

4. Component 2 - Enhancing Quality Assurance for Junior and Senior Secondary Schools (Original Project: US$15.2 million; AF Project: US$8.9 million): The proposed AF will deepen support to measuring student learning achievement through the provision of:

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(a) Support standardized testing for secondary schools, including baseline setting and revalidation of standardized tests, standardization of unified examinations for secondary students in core subjects as well as strengthening the capacity of the Lagos State Examinations Board;

(b) Strengthen the professional development of secondary school teachers and administrators. Training activities to: (i) improve the pedagogy of 5,000 junior and senior secondary teachers in English, Mathematics, and Integrated Science, and 1,200 principals and vice-principals; (ii) support Teachers’ Mentoring; (iii) strengthen decentralization of teacher training at school and district levels; (iv) support the establishment and publication of a training information and teacher training information bulletin; and (v) provide specialized training; and

(c) Support of innovative practices for improved learning outcomes, all through the provision of

technical advisory services, training, operating costs, and acquisition of goods. 5. Component 3 – Project Coordination and Management (Original Project: US$5.5 million; AF Project: US$1.9 million): The AF will provide logistical support and technical advisory services required to strengthen the coordination of Project implementation activities, monitoring and evaluation of progress achieved in the execution of the Project, and formulation and implementation of an adequate communication strategy to disseminate information pertaining to the Project in a timely manner within the jurisdiction of the Project Implementing Entity. It will also strengthen the capacity of personnel involved in project implementation. 6. Component 4 – Strengthening the Federal Post-Basic Education Strategy (Original Project: US$5.0 million; AF Project: No new funding): The main focus is to strengthen policy dialogue, build capacity, provide technical assistance for developing the national post-basic education strategy, and support policy dialogue on the strategy with States.

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Annex 5: Project Costs LAGOS EKO SECONDARY EDUCATION ADDITIONAL FINANCING PROJECT

Summary of Project Costs by Component

Naira US$

1.1 DEVELOPMENT GRANTSTra ining workshops 180,300,000 1,126,875i -Leap (e-Reader) 24,000,000 150,000Development Grants 3,261,000,000 20,381,250Dis trict a l location for Management, adminis tration and Monitoring of grant execution

240,000,000 1,500,000

Sub-total 1.1 3,705,300,000 23,158,125

1.2 PERFORMANCE AWARDSPerformance Awards 590,000,000 3,687,500Low Performing 180,000,000 1,125,000

Sub-total 1.2 770,000,000 4,812,500

1.3 PARTNERSHIPS IN TECH EDTra ining workshops & s tudy tours 30,000,000 187,500Technica l ass is tance 20,000,000 125,000Partnership Grants 510,000,000 3,187,500Technica l Col lege Management, adminis tration and Monitoring of grant execution

5,000,000 31,250

Sub-total 1.3 565,000,000 3,531,250

2.1 STANDARDIZED TESTINGTest Development 39,000,000 243,750Item Moderation 20,500,000 128,125Field Testing 4,000,000 25,000Exam Adminis tration 380,000,000 2,375,000Support to Exam Board 280,000,000 1,750,000

Sub-total 2.1 723,500,000 4,521,875

2.2 CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT FOR TEACHERSConsultancies for improvement of teaching methods for teachers in the core subject areas , Maths , Engl i sh and Science

210,000,000 1,312,500

Capaci ty bui lding of teachers , school adminis trators , Education Dis trict and MOE officia ls

500,000,000 3,125,000

Sub-total 2.2 710,000,000 4,437,500

3.0 PROJECT SUPPORT PSU Management Services

Project eva luation (M & E) includes impact eva luation 30,000,000 187,500 Office equipment and furni ture 5,000,000 31,250

Technica l Ass is tance Support (e.g. management, ins ti tutional and cost-effectiveness analys is & susta inabi l i ty)

50,000,000 312,500

Vehicles for PSU 20,250,000 126,563Management tra ining 33,200,000 207,500Management consul tants (Education, Communication and 60,000,000 375,000School monitoring 20,000,000 125,000Renta l of office for PSU 15,000,000 93,750Office maintenance, consumables , s tationeries etc 60,750,000 379,688

Sub-total 3.0 294,200,000 1,838,750

Total Project Costs (Base Costs) 6,768,000,000 42,300,000

US$ Equiva lent (US$1=N160) 42,300,000

Nigeria: Lagos EKO (Secondary Education) ProjectPROJECTED COSTS SUMMARY BY COMPONENT

Annex 5 – Detailed Project Costs

GRANTS GOODS TRAINING CONSULTANTS OPERATIONAL TOTAL US$1.1 DEVELOPMENT GRANTS

Training workshops 80,000,000 100,300,000 180,300,000 1,126,875i-Leap (e-Reader) 24,000,000 24,000,000 150,000Development Grants 3,261,000,000 3,261,000,000 20,381,250District allocation for Management, administration and Monitoring of grant execution

240,000,000 240,000,000 1,500,000

Sub-total 1.1 3,501,000,000 80,000,000 100,300,000 24,000,000 3,705,300,000 23,158,1251.2 PERFORMANCE AWARDS

Performance Awards 540,000,000 50,000,000 590,000,000 3,687,500Low Performing 180,000,000 180,000,000 1,125,000

Sub-total 1.2 720,000,000 50,000,000 770,000,000 4,812,5001.3 PARTNERSHIPS IN TECH ED

Training workshops & study tours 30,000,000 30,000,000 187,500Technical assistance 20,000,000 20,000,000 125,000Partnership Grants 500,000,000 10,000,000 510,000,000 3,187,500Technical College Management, administration and Monitoring of grant execution

5,000,000 5,000,000 31,250

Sub-total 1.3 500,000,000 10,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 5,000,000 565,000,000 3,531,2502.1 STANDARDIZED TESTING

Test Development 1,000,000 32,000,000 6,000,000 39,000,000 243,750Item Moderation 500,000 20,000,000 20,500,000 128,125Field Testing 4,000,000 4,000,000 25,000Exam Administration 300,000,000 80,000,000 380,000,000 2,375,000Support to Exam Board 200,000,000 50,000,000 30,000,000 280,000,000 1,750,000

Sub-total 2.1 501,500,000 50,000,000 62,000,000 110,000,000 723,500,000 4,521,8752.2 CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT FOR TEACHERS

Consultancies for improvement of teaching methods for teachers in the core subject areas, Maths,

50,000,000 160,000,000 210,000,000 1,312,500

Capacity building of teachers, school administrators, Education District and MOE

500,000,000 500,000,000 3,125,000

Sub-total 2.2 500,000,000 50,000,000 160,000,000 710,000,000 4,437,5003.0 PROJECT SUPPORT

PSU Management ServicesProject evaluation (M & E) includes impact 30,000,000 30,000,000 187,500

Office equipment and furniture 5,000,000 5,000,000 31,250Technical Assistance Support (e.g. management, institutional and cost-effectiveness analysis & sustainabil ity)

50,000,000 50,000,000 312,500

Vehicles for PSU 20,250,000 20,250,000 126,563Management training 33,200,000 33,200,000 207,500Management consultants (Education, 60,000,000 60,000,000 375,000School monitoring 20,000,000 20,000,000 125,000Rental of office for PSU 15,000,000 15,000,000 93,750Office maintenance, consumables, stationeries etc 60,750,000 60,750,000 379,688

Sub-total 3.0 75,250,000 33,200,000 110,000,000 75,750,000 294,200,000 1,838,750

Total Project Costs (Base Costs) 4,721,000,000 666,750,000 713,500,000 266,000,000 400,750,000 6,768,000,000 42,300,000US$ Equivalent (US$1=N160) 29,506,250 4,167,188 4,459,375 1,662,500 2,504,688 42,300,000

Nigeria: Lagos EKO (Secondary Education) ProjectPROJECTED COSTS BY COMPONENT AND BY EXPENDITURE CATEGORY (In Naira)

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Annex 5 – Additional Financing Project Cost Estimates by Year (Calendar) (US$ million)

Component 2014 2015 Total 1. Secondary School Effectiveness 15.4 16.1 31.5

A. Secondary School Development Grants 11.3 11.8 23.2 B. Secondary School Performance Grants 2.4 2.4 4.8 C. Public-Private Partnership Grants 1.7 1.8 3.5

2. Quality Assurance for Secondary Schools 4.4 4.55- 8.989-

A. Standardized Testing 2.2 2.3 4.5 B. Strengthening Teacher Professional

Development 2.2 2.2 4.4 3. Project Coordination and Management 0.9 0.9 1.8

4. Federal Post-Basic Education Strategy - - -

Total 20.8 21.5 42.3

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Annex 6 – Implementation Arrangements under Additional Financing Project

Implementation Arrangements:

1. The implementation arrangements under the AF will remain unchanged. The following gives an update on the existing implementation arrangements, and provides more information on project costs and financing and disbursements. 2. Six Education Districts under the State Ministry of Education will continue to be responsible for project implementation in close coordination with the Project Support Unit (PSU). The State Project Advisory Committee (SPAC) supported by the Project Support Unit will continue to be responsible for overall project implementation. The Federal Ministry of Finance (FMoF) will be the representative of the recipient as it relates to the financial and legal obligations of the Government. Lagos State will sign a subsidiary AF Financing Agreement with the FMoF. The phasing out of Component 4 on federal national strategy for post-basic education will minimize the responsibility of the FMoE and the original National Education Sector Steering Committee (NESSC).

3. The Project Support Unit (PSU) which has been established to support the coordination, fiduciary management and monitoring and evaluation of project activities will continue to assist SPAC. At the Education District level, the Tutors-General/Permanent Secretary in each of the six districts, will have implementation oversight and will coordinate project activities in each district. The Project Implementation Manual (PIM) will provide greater details on the roles and responsibilities of key officers who will be responsible for coordination and monitoring. The monitoring of the school grants will be the responsibility of the Tutors-General/Permanent Secretary of the district.

4. Financial Management: Activities funded through the Additional Financing will be subjected to the same arrangements for financial management and disbursement as the original Credit. However, to support the Additional Financing, the following modifications to the arrangements are needed: (a).. A separate designated account will be established to deposit the Additional Financing proceeds separately from the Credit proceeds. (b). The Flexible accounting system will be reviewed and updated if need be, to account for the Additional Financing, so that the semester and annual financial reports can be produced timely and accurately.

5. M&E arrangements: Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) arrangements will be the same as in the current project, which was particularly effective for grants monitoring through independent consultants and the School-based Management Committees. Overall responsibility for M&E will continue to be that of the Lagos Ministry of Education, in particular, the PSU. However, based on implementation experience, the M&E systems will be further strengthened. The Policy Planning Research & Statistics Dept. (PPRS) of the Education Planning Department that houses the EMIS will work with the PSU to consolidate information provided by implementing departments and units. M&E will be decentralized to Education Districts and zonal levels to increase effectiveness of data collection and reporting at school level. The PSU will support Education Districts in this regard. The reporting formats are specified in the PIM and a M&E specialist will be hired to support activities and help track progress towards the PDO.

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6. Additional indicators such as teacher attendance, secondary student assessment need to be collected to measure project performance. The project’s monitoring indicators will rely both on data collected by the Ministry as well as through the various institutions supporting the project activities. At the District level, data collection will be supported by the Zonal Project Administrators (ZOPAs) responsible for overseeing the reporting, monitoring and implementation of school grants. The project will support the integration of data within the existing EMIS. The Examinations Board will report on the learning outcomes following administration of the standardized tests.

7. The existing EMIS will provide baseline data against which quantitative and qualitative progress will be measured. The PIM will provide formats for monitoring reports and for the different data to be collected. The Implementation Progress Reports (IPRs) and Financial Monitoring Reports (FMRs) will report on project performance as per the results matrix and monitoring plan. An annual review of implementation progress against key performance indicators will be conducted to correspond with the State education sector review process.

8. Special studies will be undertaken as needed. An annual review of the impact of school grants will be conducted to assess their effectiveness. A study will be carried out to assess the effectiveness of teacher training. For the public-private partnerships in technical education, labor market scans will be conducted to guide technical college proposals.

9. Impact evaluations using randomized evaluation techniques will be conducted in both years of the project to examine the various uses of school grants and their impact on learning outcomes. The result of this evaluation will help prepare future guidelines in the use of school grants, for schools to choose the inputs/activities that have the maximum impact on learning outcomes. To the extent possible, impact evaluations will also be undertaken in selective areas, particularly with for school level management and the role of SBMCs, as well as innovations under the project.

10. Sustainability. Given the excellent performance of the current project, especially in improving student learning achievement and teacher performance and motivation, the Lagos State Government is committed to sustaining project operations beyond the implementation period in 2015. First, from a budgetary standpoint, since expected recurrent costs will likely be around 6 percent of the Lagos education budget, and roughly less than 1 percent of the projected total state expenditures for 2015 and beyond, incremental recurrent costs and the counterpart funding will not impose a significant fiscal burden on Lagos State. The Government has expressed strong interest in allocating funds for 2015 and beyond to sustain successful project operations. Second, from a human capital development perspective, the institutional capacity established under the current project at state, district, and school level is likely to remain stable in the long-term, especially the capacity to effectively manage funds at school level. This alone is likely to contribute to sizeable cost reductions in terms of reduced unit as well as transaction costs. Finally, with continued strengthening at State, district and school levels, it is expected that institutional capacity will be enhanced to deliver and monitor sound educational programs and activities towards improving student learning outcomes and ensuring greater efficiency in public education expenditures. Project costs, Financing and Disbursements 11. Project Costs and Financing: The total estimated AF cost is US$42.3 million, which will be financed through recommitted IDA-16 Replenishments (ref: Credit 42190). The project

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implementation period based on the AF processing timetable will be April 2014 to December 2015. The table below gives a breakdown of costs for both the original project and the AF project.

Project component cost and financing (US$ million, including Contingencies)

Component Cost Original Cost /a

Changes with AF

Revised Total Cost

1. Improving School Effectiveness through School Development Grants 69.2 31.5 100.7 2. Enhancing Quality Assurance for Junior and Secondary Schools 15.2 8.9 24.1 3. Project Coordination/Management 5.5 1.9 7.4 4. Strengthening Federal Post-Basic Education Strategy 5.1 0.0 5.1 Total Cost 95.0 42.3 137.3 IDA Financing Amount 95.0 42.3 137.3 IDA Financing Share (%) 100% 100% 100%

12. Disbursements: There is no change in the disbursement arrangement. The disbursement schedule for the AF project is given below:

CategoryAmount of the Credit in US$

Percentage of Expenditures to be Financed

(1) Grants under Part A of the Project: (a) SSDG; (b) SSPA; and (c) PPPG 29,600,000

1,700,000

7,300,000

(4) Goods, Training, Consultant Services under Part C of the Project 1,200,000

100%

(5) Operating Costsfor Parts A, B and C of the Project

Total Amount 42,300,000

100%

(2) Goods, Training, Consultant Services under Part A of the Project

100%

(3) Goods, Training, Consultant Services under Part B of the Project

100%

2,500,000 100%

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Annex 7 – Economic Analysis under Additional Financing Project Context: 1. Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, with an estimated population of 168.8 million people and is the second largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa. There are 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and 774 local government areas. 2. It has a secondary gross enrollment percentage of 44.4 percent with 15.7 percent of the government expenditure channeled towards education. Lagos spends more than N 2,800 per year on education representing a 47 percent increase in the percentage of public expenditure dedicated to education between 2001 (17.7 percent) and 2005 (26 percent) for Lagos. The share of primary education in state government expenditure on education ranges from a low of 36 percent in Lagos to a high of 62 percent in Enugu. The expenditure share of secondary education ranges from a high of 50.3 percent in Lagos to a low of only 18.1 percent in Cross River. Two states (FCT and Lagos) show higher expenditure on secondary than on primary education, because these states have larger urban concentrations. Student-Teacher Ratios for Public Primary and Secondary Schools in 2005 are 54.5 and 48.1 in JS and SS respectively. Cost-Benefit Analysis: 3. The Lagos Eko Project AF will continue to enhance the capacity of Lagos state and contribute significantly to the non-oil economic growth of Nigeria. Given the visible role of Lagos’ economic growth, it is expected that worker skills arising from effective secondary schools will boost the economic performance of the country. A large number of studies suggest that secondary education is associated with an acceleration of economic growth, can make a significant contribution to national economic performance, and has human-capital threshold effects that help attract foreign direct investment. But there are two important provisos. First, the quality of secondary education, especially in math and science, is more important than the number of years of schooling. Second, equitable access for poor students and especially girls, is an additional factor enhancing economic growth performance. Sustained economic growth will require a threshold level of “education stock” in the work force and continuous -often ambitious- investment in the improvement of human capital. 4. The cost-benefit analysis conducted for the original program remains relevant since it is based on the most recent data available. The analysis estimated an economic rate of return (ERR) of 14.5 percent based on private costs and 19 percent based on public and private costs.

5. Both ERR represent a lower bound estimate as externalities from the improving secondary education are not taken into account in the analysis. Lagos contributes to about 12 percent of the GDP of the country, and is the prime economic hub in Nigeria and West Africa. Critical Assumptions and Sensitivity of Key Indicators: The key assumptions in the cost-benefit analysis are a (a) 50 percent labor force participation of the secondary school graduates; and (b) unemployment rate of 10 percent and maintenance costs of 3 percent per year. Economic rates of return will still exceed 10 percent, and thus be economically justifiable, even where labor force participation rate by secondary students is increased by 50 percent.

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Cost-effectiveness of School Development Grants 6. The direct beneficiaries of the Lagos Eko Secondary Education AF will be 667 secondary schools in six districts, including five technical colleges, which provide education to over 622,000 students annually. The project would directly benefit economically poor students, teachers, principals and vice-principals, school-based management committees, and parent teacher associations (PTAs) in the project supported schools.

Component Cost Original Cost /a

Changes with AF

Revised Total Cost

1. Improving School Effectiveness through School Development Grants 69.2 31.5 100.7 2. Enhancing Quality Assurance for Junior and Secondary Schools 15.2 8.9 24.1 3. Project Coordination/Management 5.5 1.9 7.4 4. Strengthening Federal Post-Basic Education Strategy 5.1 0.0 5.1 Total Cost 95.0 42.3 137.3 IDA Financing Amount 95.0 42.3 137.3 IDA Financing Share (%) 100% 100% 100%

7. The objective of the school development grants is to raise education outcomes in junior and senior secondary education by providing public secondary schools in Lagos access to yearly discretionary resources with an explicit focus on improving the quality of education services as priority needs are defined at the school level. 8. According to a 2008 review of the Costs and Financing of Public Education in Nigeria, recurrent expenditures per student (unit costs) vary considerably by level of education (primary versus secondary) and between states. Unit costs for public primary schools are between N 4,000 and N 6,000 per year in the four northern states (Borno, Jigawa, Kaduna, and Kano) as well as Cross River. They are around double this amount in Kwara and FCT (at around N 12,000 per year) and nearly five times higher (around N 26,000 per year) in Lagos. The corresponding figures for secondary education range from about N 10,000 in Borno to about N 24,000 in FCT and Lagos. 9. Since the introduction of the original project in Lagos, the School Development Grant scheme has undergone four rounds of grants to schools for a cumulative total of US$58.92 million. To date, over 620,000 students have benefited yearly from the grants for secondary education in Lagos State, of which 51 percent of these beneficiaries are girls. Unit costs of the grant scheme are $95 per student (N15, 052), which is 37 percent lower than the 2005 unit costs for secondary education in Lagos (N24, 000). 10. During the AF of the project, the cost effectiveness is expected to be even higher since $31.5 million will be used to benefit the 622,000 students across 667 secondary schools. This will result in a unit cost of $50.6 (N 8017) which is 46 percent lower than the unit cost of school development grants in the original project. Learning gains: 11. Learning gains were evident from the findings of the Evaluation Report for West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE). The report not only compares learning gains within Lagos for pre and post-EKO project but also across states for both periods.

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Improvement in students’ performance in English Language WASSCE was recorded in all educational districts in Lagos State during the period of EKO Project (2010-2013) in comparison to the performances in the years (1999-2009) before the introduction of the project. An average of 78.6 percent of the students had a Pass (A1-E8) grade in the English Language examination in the period of EKO Secondary Education Project compared to 53.4 percent of the students that had a pass (A1-E8) grade in the years before the commencement of Lagos EKO Project. This indicated that 25.3 percent of the students have moved from the fail grade to the pass grades, this shows an improvement in the understanding of English Language instructions. 12. Furthermore, the weighted score for other states (0gun, Osun and Oyo States) in the pre-EKO Project period and during EKO Project period was lower than the weighted average score for Lagos State in the two periods. The percentage (increase) change in weighted score for Lagos State in WASSCE English Language was 27.1 percent which was higher than the percentage change of 15.3 percent, 22.8 percent and 23.0 percent for Ogun, Osun and Oyo States, respectively. 13. Similar gains were experienced for Mathematics. An average of 10.88 percent gain was recorded between the percentage of students with Pass (A1-E8) grades in the years before the EKO Project (54.32 percent) and the years during the EKO Project (65.2 percent). The percentage gain (10.35 percent) in the weighted average performance of students In Lagos State between the two classifications of periods (Pre-EKO Projects and During EKO Project) was higher than the percentage gain by other states: A percentage gain of 1.96 percent and 7.2 percent was recorded by Osun and Oyo states while Ogun had a decrease of 5.58 percent. 14. There is also evidence for cost-effectiveness of learning gains induced by school grants. The cost-effectiveness of programs that aim to improve student learning is measured as the ratio of the aggregate impact of the program—the average test score improvement per student multiplied by the number of students impacted—to the aggregate cost of implementing the program. Increasingly, programs have started reporting on the efficiencies of learning gains.

An evaluation4 of the School Block Grant Program in Andhra Pradesh India shows students in program schools perform significantly better than those in comparison schools at the end of the first year of the (unanticipated) school grant program, scoring 0.08 and 0.09 SD more in language and mathematics tests respectively for a transfer of about $3 per pupil. While there is data available on learning gains of the program, cost-effectiveness calculations will be performed upon the availability of additional data. 15. Additional impacts of improved learning outcomes involve cost savings and life-time incremental earnings from reduced repetition of students.

4 "School Inputs, Household Substitution, and Test Scores” (2013) American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 29-57, April.

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