The winter storm 2005 as an example of an extreme event – a case study for ASTRA Lasse Peltonen...
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Transcript of The winter storm 2005 as an example of an extreme event – a case study for ASTRA Lasse Peltonen...
The winter storm 2005 as an example of an extreme event – a case study for ASTRA
Lasse PeltonenCentre for urban and regional studies
Helsinki University of TechnologyASTRA Meeting, 17-20 May 2006
Klaipeda, Lithuania
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 2
Contents1. The background of the winter storm study
2. The storm event in January 2005
3. Impacts – sectoral examples
4. Responses
5. Lessons
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 3
Purpose of the winter storm case study
To make climate change concrete
Look at climate change adaptation from present-day climate variability perspective (instead of future climate according to models)
To engage ASTRA project partners in a shared task
Demonstrate both shared and specific challenges of CC adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region: one storm leads to different outcomes in different regional contexts
Use the case study for learning: what lessons can we draw from the event?
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 4
MethodA questionnaire to the ASTRA network on country- and region-specific impacts of the storm
Questionnaire complemened by other existing sources (reports, inquiries to experts and authorities)
Valuable input and in-depth studies by ASTRA project partners - Thank you!
Web-based demonstration will be developed based on the results
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 5
Gudrun a.k.a. ErwinThe winter storm in January 2005 was an extreme weather event that affected almost all of the participating countries around the Baltic sea.
The storm was exceptional (extent, damages) for the Baltic Sea Region: fiercest event since 1969
Still, it was less damaging than the 1999 storms Lothar & Martin in western Europe
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 6
Gudrun (Erwin)storm path 8.-11.1.2005
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 7
Lähde:Saurí ym. 2003
Major storms track and land cover 1998-2002
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 8
Storm risk Storm risk patterns in Europe mapped by the ESPON 1.3.1 Hazards project
Exposure: Storm paths
Damage potential: Population density & assets at risk
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 9
Was the winter storm caused by climate change?
”It would certainly be exaggerating to develop horror scenarios for Europe as a result of climate change […] However, there is no doubt that in a warmer climate it will be necessary to expect much more frequent and more intensive windstorm and severe storm events”
Münich Re ”Winter Storms in Europe (II): Analysis of 1999 losses and loss potentials”
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 10
Changing storm frequencyLithuania has met with ten major storms in the last 50 years
each of these storms have been considered a once in a hundred years –event
Expectation: 1/100 yrs return period (1% yearly risk)
Recent reality: 1/5 yrs return period (20% yearly risk)
(Source: Eurosion –project 2000)
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 11
Impacts of the storm17 people died
hundreds of thousands people affected
Damages estimated at EUR 2.5 billion
Wide range of impacts in the BSR countries
Sectors most affected:
Natural resources (esp. forestry)
Energy production and distribution
Transport and Communications
Spatial development & infrastructure
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 12
Turku, Finland
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 13
Pärnu, Estonia
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 14
Forest damages in SwedenSweden heavily affected
75 Million cubic metres of forest damaged
Equal to the normal annual timber harvest
Are monoculture forests resilient?
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 15
Forestry loss categoriesAdditional cost of harvesting the fallen trees
Revenues lost as the price for timber falls as markets are overloaded
Reforestation of totally damaged areas
Costs of restoring the infrastructure related to forest management
Costs of aero surveilance and inventory
Source: Estonian WSS study (Kont et al. 2006)
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 16
Energy: power cutsEstonia: Interruption of electricity supplies to 5,500 electricity stations which make up 30% of the country's network
Latvia: the storm affected 60 % of the country’s territory, cutting 40% population from power: 23-day emergency
Lithuania: network came close to collapse: 1,4 million people affected
Sweden: some 730 000 people affected. total number of power-cut days were counted to add up to 2,3 million
Finland: Loviisa nuclear power plant closure threatened
Denmark: wind power turbines closed down
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 17
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Restoring power (e.g. Latvia)
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 18
Coastal erosionShoreline affected throughout the southern coasts of the study area
Different sensitivities of different locations (sediment)
Effects most severe in Latvia
Increased water level and wave action together affected the coastlines of Germany, Poland and Lithuania, too.
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 19
1
Tulvariskien huomioiminen maankäytön suunnittelussa jää kauaksi Suurtulvatyöryhmän esittämästä tasosta.
Effects of the Jan 2005 winter storm on the Baltic Sea
forest damages (mio m3)
sediments lost (mio m3)
(insured) economic losses (10 mio euros)
people without electricity (100 000 residents)
Map: Johanna Roto and Simo Haanpää /YTK
areas of reported coastal erosion
extensive forest damages
coasts affected by storm surge
affected areas as reported by Carpenter (2005)
trajectory of the cyclone centre (Suursaar et.al. 2006)
areas reported with power cuts
IMPORTANT! This map shows only approximate locations of the effects listed here!
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 20
The costsTotal costs estimated at 2,42 billion euros
of which 1,6 billion euros was insured
the 40th costliest insurance loss since 1970
(Source Swiss Re 2006)
Remember: not everything is reflected in the costs!
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 21
EUSF assistanceEuropean Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) is a special fund created in 2002 to assist EU Member states recover form major disasters
EUSF provided ca. 93 M€ in assistance
Sweden received 82 M€ (total damages at 2 300 M€)
Latvia received 9,5 M€ (damages 192 M€)
Estonia’s share was 1,3 M€ (damages 48 M€)
Lithuania received € 400 000 (total damages 15 M€)
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 22
Responses to the storm Early warning systems improvements
Improvements in communication systems initiated (e.g. Swedish forestry agency web pages for forest owners)
Technical preparedness (e.g. power generators for important sectors in Latvia)
Monitoring activities (e.g. Lithuanian coast)
Institutional initiatives (e.g. Espoo flood group,, Latvian Ministry of Interior)
regulatory initiatives (e.g. Stockholm county Electricity supply rules for entreprises)
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 23
Institutional response:example from Latvia
Latvian Ministry of Interior initiative:1. Improve the coordination between state institutions and
local municipalities, declare responsibilities of each institution
2. Budget planning to reserve funding to be available in the case of storms, flooding and similar hazards
3. Develop a system of public training and education in the area of civil defence
4. Increase applied research to develop the optimal system of hazard mitigation have been underlined.
5. Improve work in hazard identification within the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Agency.
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 24
Conclusion:Before the next storm, let’s…
Engage in planned adaptation: increase adaptive capacity, not only emergency & rescue operationsImprove early warning systems and immediate response capacity (rescue services) Improve communication channels between officials and towards the publicCo-operate on sectoral strategies: both public & private sectorsImprove documentation of storm effects: more uniform, publicly available data would enhance analysis and learningInitiate institutional measures to address resources and responsibilities of institution (state vs. municipality vs. private sector)Raise awareness on changing return periods for stormsStudy International & EU-level responses in the BSR
ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 25
Thank you for your attention!
Helsinki University of Technology (TKK)Centre for Urban and Regional Studies (YTK)ASTRA teamLasse Peltonen, Simo Haanpää, Samuli Lehtonen
Contact:[email protected]@[email protected]