THE WILLIS ENERGY LOSS DATABASE + CLAIMS REVIEW OF 2011 Presentation to C.T. Bauer College of...

THE WILLIS ENERGY LOSS DATABASE + CLAIMS REVIEW OF 2011

Presentation to C.T. Bauer College of Business – University of Houston

22nd March 2012

2

OVERVIEW

• Background• Property included• Database information• Purpose of database• Types of reports available• Information sources• Confidentiality• Subscriptions & Subscribers• Disclaimer

3

BACKGROUND

• Idea conceived in 1994, commercially available from 1997• Created in recognition of general lack of industry information• Marine and Aviation losses are well reported but not Energy

unless they are major and/or involve death or injury• This is a unique facility

4

PROPERTY INCLUDED

Offshore/Onshore – E&P Upstream- Rigs/FPSOs/FSOs/FPUs etc

- Platforms

- Pipelines

- Oil sands

- Storage & offloading systems

Onshore – Midstream/Downstream

- Refineries, petrochemical, chemical, gas plants etc.

- Loading terminals, tank farms

- Power Stations, wind farms

- Gas plants, transmission stations

5

DATABASE INFORMATION

• Only for losses of US$1,000,000 or more at time of loss• Information captured is from 1972 to date• All amounts shown in US$ exchanged at date of loss rate of exchange• Property related losses – no liability in isolation• Amounts relate to PD, OEE (cost of control etc.) and BI• Contains over 9,400 individual records with an aggregate time of loss

value greater than US$158 billion (>US$220 billion indexed)• Except for BI this is a loss database not an insurance database

therefore PD, OEE & S&P costs are for 100% interest FGU on the basis of no deductible and no limit – the incident does not have to have been insured but it does have to have been insurable

6

PURPOSE OF DATABASE

• To assist in the evaluation and review of current and future insurance strategies – both buying and selling, direct and reinsurance

• To help understand the dynamics between losses and pricing • To provide activity profiles and market share analyses for

contributing Loss Adjusters• Subscribed to by oil companies, insurers/reinsurers and major

brokers• Used by academic establishments – forms part of the “Energy

Insurance and Risk Management” course run by the Bauer College of Business at the University of Houston

7

REPORTS AVAILABLE

• Summary: No. of incidents, aggregate & average $

- by year

- by geographical area, country or location

- by cause

- by property type

- by cost bandwidths

- by well depth

- any combination of the above- any combination of the above

• Listings of individual losses sorted by date or value

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REPORT EXAMPLE 1:

An independent oil company operating only onshore USA wishes to review their current OEE limits of $5M. What can the database tell them about the adequacy of their OEE limit in light of industry experience?

Database search criteria: Country = USA, Land/Offshore = Land, Loss Type = OEE

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To download intoExcel just click here

We will now look at 2 other reports with the same data set –

firstly by location

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To download intoExcel just click here

And secondly by cost category

(using indexed as we are looking at + 35

years of data)

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This tells us:1. An OEE limit of $5M would

have been adequate for 474/729 or 65% of known OEE losses excess of $1M

2. Increasing the OEE limit to $10M would account for 620/729 or 85% and so on…

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REPORT EXAMPLE 2:

Analysis of European chemical/petrochemical/refinery plant losses since 1990 based on frequency and severity excluding the causes of earthquake and subsidence

Database search criteria: Year of Loss = 1990 to 2010, Area = Europe, Subcategory = chemical, petrochemical,refinery, Cause = all (excluding earthquake and subsidence/landslide)

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Frequency

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Severity

17

Cause

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List by value

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REPORT EXAMPLE 3:

A comparison of offshore pipeline losses in both the construction and operating phases in four different areas of the world.

As this coverage is usually purchased on a limit rather than value basis, what is the industry experience of loss severity?

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Bandwidth Incidents Index PD $ Incidents Index PD $ Incidents Index PD $ Incidents Index PD $

A. $1 - 2.5M 28 52,144,071 27% 12 20,757,209 24% 29 52,600,198 28% 34 57,261,185 28%B. $2.5 - 5M 35 122,802,324 60% 20 67,999,610 63% 32 115,465,166 60% 37 126,193,804 58%C. $5 - 10M 19 122,718,994 78% 9 66,299,188 80% 26 176,782,404 85% 28 188,158,259 80%D. $10 - 15M 6 74,304,095 84% 2 24,320,328 84% 8 94,872,590 93% 6 76,117,079 85%E. $15 - 20M 6 111,969,239 90% 3 49,515,625 90% 2 36,914,117 95% 6 106,861,443 90%F. $20 - 25M 2 40,822,302 91% 1 22,728,423 92% 2 43,155,138 97% 4 90,302,607 93%G. $25 - 30M 1 25,124,696 92% 0 92% 1 29,235,086 98% 1 25,600,085 94%H. $30 - 35M 2 62,079,436 94% 1 31,567,254 94% 2 64,617,365 100% 0 94%I. $35 - 40M 1 36,545,012 95% 0 94% 0 100% 0 94%J. $40 - 45M 0 95% 1 42,600,338 96% 0 100% 0 94%K. $45M - 50M 0 95% 0 96% 0 100% 1 49,403,674 95%L. $50 - 60M 3 163,385,942 98% 0 96% 0 100% 2 111,232,144 97%M. $60 - 70M 1 67,483,954 99% 0 96% 0 100% 0 97%N. $70 - 80M 0 99% 0 96% 0 100% 1 72,982,700 98%O. $80 - 90M 0 99% 0 96% 0 100% 0 98%P. $90 - 100M 0 99% 1 95,930,657 98% 0 100% 0 98%Q. $100M+ 1 120,068,519 100% 1 100,498,783 100% 0 100% 3 578,247,544 100%

105 999,448,584 51 522,217,415 102 613,642,063 123 1,482,360,524

Bandwidth Incidents Index PD $ Incidents Index PD $ Incidents Index PD $ Incidents Index PD $

A. $1 - 2.5M 34 62,043,994 16% 23 44,657,995 24% 16 29,460,325 23% 28 48,444,341 41%B. $2.5 - 5M 66 245,291,633 48% 24 84,408,427 49% 16 58,535,966 46% 21 74,932,182 72%C. $5 - 10M 51 372,701,001 73% 22 149,783,169 72% 15 104,772,522 68% 8 57,016,002 84%D. $10 - 15M 24 302,854,755 84% 7 91,129,202 79% 9 107,022,999 81% 6 70,301,651 93%E. $15 - 20M 8 131,211,675 88% 7 124,486,124 86% 7 121,317,383 91% 2 34,410,521 96%F. $20 - 25M 8 181,316,227 92% 3 66,528,062 90% 3 64,566,406 96% 2 44,799,094 99%G. $25 - 30M 4 103,990,558 94% 3 79,058,754 93% 0 96% 0 99%H. $30 - 35M 3 97,515,743 95% 0 93% 1 30,178,636 97% 0 99%I. $35 - 40M 3 118,630,269 97% 1 38,021,698 94% 1 39,231,343 99% 0 99%J. $40 - 45M 1 44,074,000 97% 0 94% 0 99% 0 99%K. $45M - 50M 0 97% 0 94% 0 99% 0 99%L. $50 - 60M 1 53,329,952 98% 1 51,587,412 95% 0 99% 0 99%M. $60 - 70M 2 130,349,695 99% 3 190,323,061 98% 0 99% 0 99%N. $70 - 80M 1 76,316,863 99% 0 98% 0 99% 1 70,183,312 100%O. $80 - 90M 0 99% 1 86,049,105 99% 0 99% 0 100%P. $90 - 100M 1 99,386,070 100% 0 99% 0 99% 0 100%Q. $100M+ 1 110,062,809 100% 1 109,635,036 100% 1 135,000,000 100% 0 100%

208 2,129,075,243 96 1,115,668,046 69 690,085,578 68 400,087,104

Australasia/Far East North America/South America/Carribbean

CONSTRUCTION OPERATING CONSTRUCTION OPERATING

Europe/Eastern Europe Africa/Middle EastCONSTRUCTION OPERATING CONSTRUCTION OPERATING

OFFSHORE PIPELINE LOSSES BY CLAIM AMOUNT

This shows where 90% of the losses reside

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INFORMATION SOURCES:

• Willis records• Willis research team located in Mumbai• Loss Adjusters• Insurers & Captives• Historical data (London Master Energy Line Slip)• The press (limited information available)

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CONFIDENTIALITY:

• Guarantees have been given to information providers that only restricted information will be produced which means that:• Names of Assureds are not revealed• Names of contributors are not revealed• Obvious information to aid identification such as name of

facility or precise location are not revealed

• Access to the database is strictly controlled

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SUBSCRIPTIONS:

> Price (on application) is for a multi-user annual licence for access via the internet. No additional software is required

> Subscriptions go towards maintaining and developing the database

> Without sufficient income the facility will be discontinued – it should be regarded as an energy insurance industry tool

> Available to all industry interested entities

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JUST ADDED:

• Additional fields showing• Gulf of Mexico Area• US Location Code (OEE only)• Upstream, downstream or power• Subcategory 2 (lower level description of property)

• The ability to generate and download custom reports based on up to 12 fields of your choice

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PLEASE USE THIS SHEET TO PROVIDE NEW OR UPDATED INFORMATION FOR THE WILLIS ENERGY

LOSS DATABASE. ONLY LOSSES IN EXCESS OF $1,000,000 FROM GROUND-UP QUALIFY.

NOTE: The name of the Assured and/or the facility (rig, platform, plant etc.) does not appear in the online database but is very helpful in avoiding duplications and is essential for windstorm losses

Once completed please send/scan & email To: Andrew Jackson, Willis Energy Property & Casualty Claims, 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, E-Mail: [email protected], Fax: +44 (0)20 3124 8223 Tel: +44 (0)20 3124 8234

Loss Date: Day ....... Month ...………… Year ...…….

UPSTREAM LOSSES ONLY – SEE SEPARATE SHEETS FOR DOWNSTREAM OR POWER

CATEGORY 1. CATEGORY 2 CATEGORY 3___________________________________ MOPU (Mobile Off Prod Unit) Crane/pipelay Barge Ballast tanks Methanol Pipeline Drillship Boiler Mooring equipment Plant FDPSO/FPSO (circle one) Cable (elec/control) Pig (pipeline) Platform FPU/FSO/FSU (circle one) Compressor Propulsion/thruster Rig Inland barge Cooling system Riser SBM/CALM etc. Jackup Crane ROV SSCS (Sub Sea Completion) Land rig Drilling equipment Salt Water Disposal Vessel (Energy related) Platform rig Engine room Storage tank Well Semi-submersible Fire protection Structure Other........................... Seismic Generator/power Transformer Spar/TLP (circle one) Hoses (loading) Turbine

Submersible Leg/SpudCan/Mat Water injection LNG Other………………………….. Land Offshore Construction Operating CTL/TL Dynamically Positioned

Assured & co-venturers (optional): ............................................................................. .....................................................

Loss details: ..................................................................................................................................... ................................. ...........................................................................IF GOM PLSE PROVIDE AREA/BLOCK DETAILS Loss location (City, State): .............................................. Country: .................................................Water Depth…………

Loss type: Business Interruption Cause : Anchor/Jacking/Trawler Impact OEE Blowout Leg punch through Physical Damage Capsize Mechanical failure Seepage & Pollution Collapse Piling operations Collision Pipelaying/trenching Contamination Riot Area : Africa Corrosion Stuck drill stem Australasia Drive off Stuck pig Caribbean Earthquake/seaquake Subsidence/landslide Eastern Europe Faulty design/workmanship Supply interruption Europe Fire/lightning/explosion Terrorism Far East (inc. India/Pakistan) Flood Theft Middle East Grounding Unknown North America (inc. Mexico) Heavy weather Windstorm South America Ice/snow/freeze Other ................................. Adjuster: ................................Adj File Ref ….................

PD/S&P Claim: US$....................................... (100% gross, ground-up) OEE Claim: US$....................................... (100% gross, ground-up) BI Claim: US$....................................... (Please clarify basis of costs) Total Claim: US$.......................................

Notes: ........................................................................................................................ .............................................................

Well Information : OEE only Type: Gas, Oil, O&G, Sulph, Shale, Geothermal, other …………… Status: Drilling, Shut-in, W/Over Producing, Completing Developmental/exploration: D / E U/G Blowout: Y / N Depth @ Loss (feet) ................ Proj tot depth (feet) .................

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NOTE: The name of the Assured and/or the facility does not appear in the online database but is very helpful in avoiding duplications and is essential for windstorm losses



DOWNSTREAM LOSSES ONLY – SEE SEPARATE SHEETS FOR UPSTREAM OR POWER

CATEGORY 1. CATEGORY 2 CATEGORY 3___________________________________ Chemical Aromatics/Olefins (circle one) Biodiesel/Biogas (circle one) Hoses (loading) Gas plant Cofferdam Boiler/steam Jetty Oil/Tar sands Cracker Cable (elec/control) Oxygen Petrochemical Desulphuriser Compressor Pipeline (within facility) Pipeline (major) Factory/warehouse Control room Pump station Plant (please describe in details) Gas Processing Cooling system Storage tank Refinery GTL (gas to liquids) Crane Structure Renewables Jetty Equipment Transformer Tank farm LNG/LPG (circle one) Ethanol Turbine Terminal Pipeline (within facility) Explosives Other........................... Primary process Fertilizer/agrochemical

Secondary process Fire protection Synfuel Furnace Upgrader Generator/power Land Offshore Construction Operating

Assured & co-venturers (optional): ..................................................................................................................................

Loss details: ..................................................................................................................................... ................................. ...................................................................................................................................................................... Loss location (City, State): .............................................. Country: .................................................

Loss type: Business Interruption Cause : Collapse Mechanical failure Physical Damage Collision Piling operations Seepage & Pollution Contamination Pipelaying/trenching Corrosion Riot Faulty design/workmanship Ruptured pipeline Earthquake Subsidence/landslide Area : Africa Fire/lightning/explosion Supply interruption Australasia Flood Terrorism Caribbean Heavy weather Theft Eastern Europe Ice/snow/freeze Windstorm Europe Impact Other ................................. Far East (inc. India/Pakistan) Middle East North America (inc. Mexico) South America Adjuster: ................................Adj File Ref …................. PD/S&P Claim: US$....................................... (100% gross, ground-up) BI Claim: US$....................................... (Please clarify basis of costs) Total Claim: US$.......................................

Notes: .....................................................................................................................................................................................

PRODUCT INFORMATION: Although this will not appear in the online commercial database, it is very helpful for us to identify the product (if applicable) that was involved in the process. Please be as descriptive as possible: ……………………………..……………………… ……………………………………………………..

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NOTE: The name of the Assured and/or the facility does not appear in the online database but is very helpful in avoiding duplications and is essential for windstorm losses



POWER LOSSES ONLY – SEE SEPARATE SHEETS FOR UPSTREAM OR DOWNSTREAM

CATEGORY 1. CATEGORY 2 CATEGORY 3__________________________________ Power - Thermal Coal Ash handling Generator Power - Nuclear Diesel/Oil Balance of plant Penstock/tunnels Power - Renewables Energy From Waste Boiler/HRSG Reactor Power - Substation Gas Cable (elec/control) Storage tank Power – Trans & Dist Multifuel Compressor Structure Biomass Control room Transformer Geothermal Cooling system Turbine Hydro Dam Other………………… Solar Equipment Tidal Fire protection Wind Fuel handling

Construction Operating Number of days outage…………………………….

Assured & co-venturers (optional): .................................................................................................................................. Loss details: ...................................................................................................................................................................... ...................................................................................................................................................................... Loss location (City, State): .............................................. Country: .................................................

Loss type: Business Interruption Cause : Collapse Physical Damage Collision Contamination Corrosion Earthquake Faulty design/workmanship Area : Africa Fire/lightning/explosion Australasia Flood Caribbean Heavy weather Eastern Europe Ice/snow/freeze Europe Impact Far East (inc. India/Pakistan) Mechanical failure Middle East Riot North America (inc. Mexico) Subsidence/landslide South America Supply interruption Terrorism Theft Adjuster: ................................Adj File Ref …................. Windstorm Other .............................................. PD Claim: US$....................................... (100% gross, ground-up) BI Claim: US$....................................... ( Please clarify basis of costs) Total Claim: US$.......................................

Notes: ..................................................................................................................................................................................... .................................................................................................................................................................................................

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DISCLAIMER:

The entries in the database have been obtained from a variety of sources.

Willis Limited does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained therein.

THE WILLIS ENERGY LOSS DATABASE 2012http://online1.willis.com/sites/weld/W_ELViewer.aspx

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The 17th Lillehammer Energy Claims Conference

29th February – 2nd March 2012

Market Developments - Losses and other updates

Andrew Jackson – Willis Limited, 29th February 2012

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2006 – 2011 OVERVIEW

FOR THE CHARTS AND LISTINGS THAT FOLLOW PLEASE NOTE:

Only losses excess of $ 1,000,000 FGU have been included The figures relate to PD/S&P, OEE and BI costs only – no death &

injury liability costs are included These are industry figures rather than insured figures which means

Where possible they INCLUDE deductibles and waiting periods They are not restricted to any policy limits but the costs involved

are considered insurable In other words, if you recognise the loss you may not recognise the

amount! It is still too early to have an accurate overview for 2011

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February Anchor chains of FPSO broke during heavy weather

North Sea, UK Sector $ 984,000,000

December Anchor chains of FPSO broke during heavy weather

North Sea, UK Sector $ 365,000,000

April Sinking of semi-submersible flotel

Bay of Campeche, Mexico

$ 230,000,000

December Leaks in subsea xmas trees Offshore Nigeria $ 230,000,000

March Damage to Free Standing Hybrid Riser

Gulf of Mexico, USA $ 150,000,000

May Developmental well out of control

Offshore Israel $ 130,000,000

June Oil pollution from wellhead Bohai Bay, China $ 130,000,000

July Damage to FPSO mooring system in transit

Offshore Nigeria $ 120,000,000

February Damage to production guide base on well

North Sea, Norwegian Sector

$ 104,000,000

December Sinking of jackup drilling rig under tow

Sea of Okhotsk, Russia $ 100,000,000

2011 Major Upstream Losses (PD/S&P, OEE + BI only no liability, FGU not just insured)

Source: The Willis Energy Loss Database (WELD)

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2006 – 2011 Upstream Losses PD/S&P, OEE, BIIncluding Windstorm

0

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

US

$

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Inci

den

ts

Total Actual US$

Incidents

Note: For windstorm losses ‘Incident’ = loss per insured

This chart includes an arbitrary OEE figure of US$ 2 billion for the Deepwater Horizon/ Macondo incident


DWHOEE

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2006 – 2011 Upstream Losses PD/S&P, OEE, BIExcluding Windstorm

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000

4,500,000,000

5,000,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

US

$

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inci

den

ts

Total Actual US$

Incidents

This chart includes an arbitrary OEE figure of US$ 2 billion for the Deepwater Horizon/ Macondo incident


DWHOEE

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2011 Upstream Losses PD/S&P, OEE, BI

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

1,600,000,000

1,800,000,000

2,000,000,000

MOPU Pipeline Platform Rig SBMetc. SSCS Vessel Well

Category

US

$

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Inci

den

ts

Total Actual US$

Incidents


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January Fire at primary oilsands upgrader Canada $ 1,300,000,000

March Earthquake damage to refinery Japan $ 590,000,000

March Earthquake damage to chemical plant

Japan $ 174,000,000

March Earthquake damage to chemical plant

Japan $ 155,000,000

May Tornado damage to gas plant Oklahoma, USA $ 150,000,000

September Fire in pump station of refinery Singapore $ 150,000,000

May Fire in acetylene plant Germany $ 123,000,000

March Earthquake damage to refinery Japan $ 120,000,000

January Fire in petrochemical plant Louisiana, USA $ 104,000,000

October Fire in refinery Canada $ 80,000,000

2011 Major Downstream Losses (PD/S&P + BI only no liability, FGU not just insured)


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2006 – 2011 Downstream Losses PD/S&P, BIIncluding Windstorm

0

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

7,000,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

US

$

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Inci

den

ts

Total Actual US$

Incidents

Note: For windstorm losses ‘Incident’ = loss per insured


38

2006 – 2011 Downstream Losses PD/S&P, BIExcluding Windstorm

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

US

$

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Inci

den

ts

Total Actual US$

Incidents


39

2011 Downstream Losses PD/S&P, BI

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

Chemica

l

Gas p

lant

Oil/Tar s

ands

Petro

chem

ical

Pipelin

ePlan

t

Refinery

Renewab

les

Tank

farm

/term

inal

Category

US

$

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Inci

den

ts

Total Actual US$

Incidents


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January Total loss of jackup drilling rig following blowout and fire

Nigeria $ 170,000,000

And 2012………………….(so far) (PD/S&P, OEE + BI only no liability, FGU not just insured)

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According to some sources, 2011 considered a record year for insured losses from natural catastrophes with estimates ranging from $ 100bn to $ 106bn

Previously, 2005 at $ 101bn was highest due to hurricanes Katrina, Rita & Wilma

The February Christchurch earthquake and the March Tohuku earthquake/tsunami contribute almost half of the insured losses at an average estimate of $ 50bn

February Christchurch, New Zealand - EarthquakeFebruary Queensland, Australia - Cyclone Yasi (cat 5)March Tohuku, Japan – Earthquake & TsunamiApril Mississippi, USA – FloodsMay Southern USA – TornadoesJuly Thailand – FloodsJuly Copenhagen – FloodsAugust Carribbean & Eastern USA – Hurricane IreneSeptember Texas, USA – WildfiresSeptember China, Japan, Philippines – TyphoonsNovember France – FloodsDecember Melbourne, Australia - Hailstorm

2011 Natural Catastrophe Activity

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Industry and Market News (1) On 27th January the Joint Rig Committee (JRC)

released the Joint Rig Committee Rig Move Warranty Survey Code of Practice / Scope of Work to: Outline the criteria for rig Move surveying activities

including jacking up / down operations Clarify the roles of the Marine Warranty Surveyor,

the Assured and Underwriters Define the function of the scopes of work for the

different activities Establish guidelines for communication between

the parties Further information is available from the JRC or

Lloyd’s Market Association website

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Industry and Market News (2)

OIL have raised their policy limit for non-windstorm events from $250M to US$ 300M w.e.f. 1st January 2012

OIL have also raised their non-windstorm aggregation limit from $750M to $900M

Aggregation and per occurrence limits for Designated Named Windstorm losses remain unchanged at $750M & $150M

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Thank you for your attention

THE WILLIS ENERGY LOSS DATABASE + CLAIMS REVIEW OF 2011 Presentation to C.T. Bauer College of...

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Transcript of THE WILLIS ENERGY LOSS DATABASE + CLAIMS REVIEW OF 2011 Presentation to C.T. Bauer College of...